chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 4, 2020 7:48:06 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 4, 2020 10:37:50 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 4, 2020 13:35:33 GMT -8
CNBC has Apple just put itself in position to be the next HBO. As I have mentioned, we already record via TiVo more shows than we end up watching, and also subscribe to HBO and Netflix. Plus, as a typical Boston major sports fan, the games comprise a significant part of my viewing time. But this certainly makes it plain that Tim is attacking the new, less major network-oriented TV landscape, as a significant opportunity.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 4, 2020 13:52:05 GMT -8
CNBC has Apple just put itself in position to be the next HBO. As I have mentioned, we already record via TiVo more shows than we end up watching, and also subscribe to HBO and Netflix. Plus, as a typical Boston major sports fan, the games comprise a significant part of my viewing time. But this certainly makes it plain that Tim is attacking the new, less major network-oriented TV landscape, as a significant opportunity. Part of HBO's success in the last two decades has been pushing the envelope, making shows for adults that feel edgy, intense, and risky. They capture the conversation and awards because of their interest in breaking new ground every time. Apple TV+'s mandate has been family friendly programming, with nothing too controversial or edgy. It's going to be super hard to compete with HBO with that mandate, or to create any programming that competes for awards. Disney has the family-friendly space on lock, mostly by mining IP libraries... It will be very interesting to see Apple try to spend their way out of that conundrum.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 4, 2020 14:19:25 GMT -8
CNBC has Apple just put itself in position to be the next HBO. As I have mentioned, we already record via TiVo more shows than we end up watching, and also subscribe to HBO and Netflix. Plus, as a typical Boston major sports fan, the games comprise a significant part of my viewing time. But this certainly makes it plain that Tim is attacking the new, less major network-oriented TV landscape, as a significant opportunity. Part of HBO's success in the last two decades has been pushing the envelope, making shows for adults that feel edgy, intense, and risky. They capture the conversation and awards because of their interest in breaking new ground every time. Apple TV+'s mandate has been family friendly programming, with nothing too controversial or edgy. It's going to be super hard to compete with HBO with that mandate, or to create any programming that competes for awards. Disney has the family-friendly space on lock, mostly by mining IP libraries... It will be very interesting to see Apple try to spend their way out of that conundrum. I agree with this. So far Apple content seems like the typical PC pablum we see on CBS and with most modern studio movies, with woke themes and quotas. The Sopranos was not just edgy, but also far from PC (aside from the tiresome Not All Italians Are In The Mafia refrain). I realize some of you might find this post gratuitously political, but I assure you half the country just wants to tune out this woke, PC, girl power, diversity nonsense of 98-lbs women being the strongest warriors on the planet. Most of us would just settle for apolitical, good stories. I cut the cable cord and recently canceled Netflix and even let my Apple Music subscription lapse (I’d rather just download music than pay for the same 💩 for eternity, sorry Tim). Lately I’ve been listening to history audiobooks. So many amazing real life stories out there that have never been told, but Hollywood just keeps pooping out Avengers 12 and other comic book and fantasy CGI silliness. I’d kill for a great WWII TV series like Band of Brothers. I’m glad to hear they are making a movie out of Adam Makos’ wonderful book Spearhead. Makos' A Higher Call is great too. But instead we get endless superhero and Star Wars tedium. 🤮 And get off my lawn! *** BTW, a blast from the past worth reading, The genius behind Steve (CNN Money, November 2008) Could operations whiz Tim Cook run the company someday?
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 4, 2020 15:02:24 GMT -8
BTW, a blast from the past worth reading, The genius behind Steve (CNN Money, November 2008) Could operations whiz Tim Cook run the company someday? People should never be fooled by Tim's soft-spoken demeanor. Thanks for this, JD.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Jan 4, 2020 15:13:48 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 4, 2020 20:54:55 GMT -8
BTW, a blast from the past worth reading, The genius behind Steve (CNN Money, November 2008) Could operations whiz Tim Cook run the company someday? People should never be fooled by Tim's soft-spoken demeanor. Thanks for this, JD. I would have swore I had read this as attributed to SJ before. But....I happen to be reading Inside Apple at the moment. And there it is, on page 95/96. No one is perfect at everything. But while Tim might not match SJ in all aspects, he does have some stand out qualities. FWIW, on page 169 there's this quote I don't remember seeing before, from Avie a couple weeks before Steve died: "When Steve is gone, the competition still will not have Steve Jobs."
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 4, 2020 21:38:02 GMT -8
I like to think this time is different....and that's where I know we're getting into problem territory. But the comments put it into perspective, with one person pointing out Google and MSFT's P/E's of 31 and 32 (FWIW, a 30 today for AAPL would be ~$360), another expecting AAPL to be at $400 in short order, and another saying $500-570. Uhhhhh It will get there, eventually, just as AAPL has gotten to this point eventually. But it is seldom a straight line. And, at least for the past 22 years that I have owned it, AAPL has never jumped up in value just because something else that is roughly equivalent, in some fashion, is priced higher. We'll see. But IMO this is not a time to be only expecting further upward movement in the shorter term, and it would be wise if you need funds from AAPL shares in the coming 1-3-5 years to consider that. Ahhhh, if only I felt that way 2 decades ago. I had trimmed for the year 2000 rollover, but had bulked up again before the eventual downturn, with a slow pullback starting in April, before the cliff diving exposition in late September. Those were the days....of pain. FWIW I don't see that happening from this level, but a 15-30% pull back wouldn't be unexpected. Cycle-wise it seems like the shouldn't be until after the build up to 5G iPhones and likely great sales, but if it were that easy then everyone would be doing it.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 4, 2020 22:49:59 GMT -8
CNBC has Apple just put itself in position to be the next HBO. As I have mentioned, we already record via TiVo more shows than we end up watching, and also subscribe to HBO and Netflix. Plus, as a typical Boston major sports fan, the games comprise a significant part of my viewing time. But this certainly makes it plain that Tim is attacking the new, less major network-oriented TV landscape, as a significant opportunity. Part of HBO's success in the last two decades has been pushing the envelope, making shows for adults that feel edgy, intense, and risky. They capture the conversation and awards because of their interest in breaking new ground every time. Apple TV+'s mandate has been family friendly programming, with nothing too controversial or edgy. It's going to be super hard to compete with HBO with that mandate, or to create any programming that competes for awards. Disney has the family-friendly space on lock, mostly by mining IP libraries... It will be very interesting to see Apple try to spend their way out of that conundrum. Just from watching the first season of "The Morning Show", I'm not at all worried about Apple TV+ being too much "...family friendly programing, with nothing too controversial or edgy". There are enough f-bombs and sex-related conversations to convince the watcher it's not a Disney movie plus the acting is first rate, IMO. Everything considered, the show is better than I anticipated/feared. SPOILER ALERT: Don't click on the link if you haven't watched, but intend to watch, "The Morning Show". How The Morning Show Surprised Us AllThe following is an excerpt from the link: What sucks is that it took XXXXXXX's death to get here, and that her death was just yet another dark thing that made this show hard to watch. "Dark" and "hard to watch" were not descriptors we were imagining when we first started waiting for this show back in 2017, when that described what was happening in the real news. We didn't anticipate that we would get the most joy out of watching Jennifer Aniston freak the f—k out, or of watching Jennifer Aniston and Billy Crudup perform Sweeney Todd together. We didn't anticipate hating a character played by Steve Carell, and we didn't expect him to be quite so good at being quite so villainous. We did not expect to be quite so taken by Billy Crudup, either. This is certainly not the conversation we imagined having about this show when we finally got to see it.
However dark things got onscreen, the show's future looks bright. It's got a nomination for best TV drama at the Golden Globes, as well as acting nominations for Aniston and Witherspoon, and Ehrin has big plans for season two.
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Post by deasys on Jan 5, 2020 0:00:41 GMT -8
Apple TV+'s mandate has been family friendly programming, with nothing too controversial or edgy. If that is true, then Apple has utterly ignored its "mandate" for Apple TV+.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 5, 2020 9:27:07 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 5, 2020 12:07:30 GMT -8
Even though my wife and I have only been invested in AAPL for about 20 years, it happened that, about 32 years ago, we bought a home that's less than .5 miles from Steve Jobs' boyhood home. I first became aware of this sometime during the last 15 years and, since it happens to be on the route that we take to-and-from the local Lucky Supermarket, I often stop to help folks get a photo of themselves standing in front of the residence. I've taken photos of folks from Russia, Hungry, Germany and really all over Europe, Asia and South America. I'm always impressed that people from all over the world have taken the time to learn the location of the home where Steve lived and Apple Inc. began. I doubt that anyone has travelled to this area just to see the home, but the fact that they made sure to visit the home while in the area is still impressive to me. Steve Jobs' boyhood home becomes historic siteI don't always remember to also use my iPhone to take a photo or two, but I did so last weekend. These latest photos were of a man from Japan driving a rental car and a man from China who was on a bike. While I was taking their photos, a family from Canada also stopped to take a photo. Even though Tim Cook has continued to do a fantastic job as Apple's CEO, it appears to me that remembrance of Steve Jobs and his legacy is still as strong as ever in the minds of many Apple fans.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 5, 2020 19:44:39 GMT -8
I'd like to make a pilgrimage to the Jobs' house, but it seems kind of obnoxious to the present owners, just showing up. I've only been to Infinite Loop once on a Sunday when it was closed. I'd like to make a shareholders meeting someday, but the dog is sick. Interesting that everyone remembers the founder of a company, or the star CEO, but rarely the successor (unless they screw the pooch, e.g., GE, MSFT, Starbucks). Sam Walton's successor increased the size of Walmart ten fold, but I doubt anyone knows his name (David Glass). But of course it was Sam's vision that got it all rolling.
Hope Tim ends up increasing Apple by ten-fold! Steve said his job was to say no, not yes. Seems Tim has lived up to that mantra to a large degree (most new products are ancillary to iPhone, rather than cannibalistic or paradigm changing). Looks like Tim killed the iCar.
I was thinking that Tim and Apple remind me of the Patriots and Bill Belichik (12 wins does not mean the dynasty is over, folks). Totally opaque, secretive. Nothing good comes from telling the world how they do things and what goes on inside, so they don't do interviews (or very controlled, on script media opportunities). Isn't that the weakness of Inside Apple, that they had no insiders on the record?
Interesting thing about Starbucks, is how Schultz came back and saved the company like Jobs did with Apple. I don't even drink coffee so I have no opinion on the company itself, other than it seems similar to Apple in that Starbucks turned an erstwhile commodity product into a high margin cash cow. Target stock is on a tear, but I am not convinced. Every time I go to Target they piss me off (bad service, items always out of stock, fustercluck online ordering). I don't think Amazon has anything to worry about with TGT. I was just thinking about how badly Macy's has destroyed their brand. Another race to the bottom with zero differentiation. Even Forever 21 lost the race to the bottom... Apple has proven retail isn't dead. But the meteor has hit; which organism will survive? What can you do for me that online can't?
Red futures.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 5, 2020 21:16:43 GMT -8
Isn't that the weakness of Inside Apple, that they had no insiders on the record? I'm just recreationally reading it. It was free from the library...probably from a cart at the pool this summer. The book has seen some water, but maybe was someone's tub or hot tub read. Anyways, what was interesting to me was that it differed from my experience at Apple. It was written only a few years after I left. But, like anything, groups varied. I don't think we ever had a bug or reference to SJ when I worked in the Apple Remote Desktop group, though I did get one from Avie. There might have been something in the Server group in general, but at my level I don't remember it, at least often. OTOH, iWork was an interest of his, and so there were a few bugs from his direction. There would be a lot more in Keynote I'm sure, but in Pages and Numbers there were a few, of an upper person writing something, and when I gave pushback saying it wasn't the best way, the retort was something like "SJ wants it this way". It wasn't often enough to be overbearing, but it did happen. But then a couple things in the book remind me that a book is what someone writes, and isn't always 100% accurate. At times it's just based on who it takes info from or what it focuses on. But then there are facts, or maybe just wording, that is downright wrong. I just read a section in the last day or two that talked about Tesla, calling out not having dealers, and saying that the showroom in Santana Row was not close to any freeway offramps. Now, maybe he was trying to say something and it didn't get edited right. After all, there was no real reason to say that. But it does, and it's wrong. Santana Row is something like a 1/4 mile from 880, the first light after getting out of the offramp. It's sandwiched right in there at the intersection of 880/17 and 280, across the street from a more normal mall, and next to the Winchester Mystery House and a movie theater where Apple took people to see the likes of Lord of the Rings and Cars before it came out, later that day. While the offramp aren't ideal, being more directional since it's within a 1/2 mile or so of the freeway junctions, they do exist. But that's just the nit-picky stuff that sometimes really pisses you off. I really liked the Avie quote in the book, and if I had felt that way in the years leading up to Steve's passing, I would have not worried about it anywhere as much. Let's have a good week. There's bound to be some red days, for the market and the stock. But in general it seems like positiveness for AAPL should prevail, from now until earnings. It's never that easy and this is the time that rumors get thrown around. But in general, things are looking good, and trade war easing might be enough to counter other world politics....or might not.
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Post by BillH on Jan 6, 2020 7:16:43 GMT -8
BTW, a blast from the past worth reading, The genius behind Steve (CNN Money, November 2008) Could operations whiz Tim Cook run the company someday? People should never be fooled by Tim's soft-spoken demeanor. Thanks for this, JD. It was that one tidbit that convinced me Apple had a worthy successor should anything ever happen to Steve. I've told the story often through the years to anyone who didn't think Tim was tough enough to manage the organizational structure that Steve put in place. I feel the same way about Jeff Williams.
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