chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 2, 2020 21:15:27 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2020 4:23:55 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Feb 3, 2020 5:18:00 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2020 7:09:42 GMT -8
(green.....shhhhh, don't spook the tape)
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 3, 2020 7:19:49 GMT -8
Not quite the "sale" I was hoping to catch for some leaps.
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Post by elmar on Feb 3, 2020 7:34:56 GMT -8
Not quite the "sale" I was hoping to catch for some leaps. Yes, I am in the same boat. I sold a few shares to grep the next opportunity. But on the other hand I do not really need many new gains, as long as AAPL stays above 300 I am very content. And for falling much below I do own a few puts.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 3, 2020 8:15:52 GMT -8
Not quite the "sale" I was hoping to catch for some leaps. The rarity of a good sale, on the S&P or on AAPL, makes it worth the wait. The problem I have is that volatility usually spikes, making many options plays less tempting. OTOH, on a quick spike downward that you feel is unsustainable, buying ATM or just ITM spreads could still be good, and it would be a good time to write puts if so inclined. It will be nice to see some green, even if it's mild. What a difference a few day's makes in terms of the RSI. The hit downward sure took out some of the oversized momentum.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 3, 2020 8:36:57 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 3, 2020 8:38:35 GMT -8
I would assume it's a mutually assured destruction dynamic. Keep your market open to us, or we'll take our ball (jobs) and go home. China can make up all the BS GDP numbers it wants, but jobs are a real thing that millions of citizens moved to the big cities for. They'd notice mile-long Foxconn plants closing for good. Maybe this temporary shutter of plants and stores is partly Tim flexing. Or at least a positive side effect. Obviously Tim wants Indian markets too, hence the jobs announcement. India acting in its best interests just like our president is for us. "Show us the jobs."
Good, I like low expectations. Speaking of which, I'm sure Apple election news will be fair and balanced to both sides. Fortunately, the side Apple will take is a circular firing squad.
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Feb 3, 2020 9:00:29 GMT -8
Not quite the "sale" I was hoping to catch for some leaps. Yes, I am in the same boat. I sold a few shares to grep the next opportunity. But on the other hand I do not really need many new gains, as long as AAPL stays above 300 I am very content. And for falling much below I do own a few puts.
count me in as well.... once futures turned green last night i knew it prolly won't go below $300... but i dawdled on figuring out a limit order to place and $303 or whatnot this morning; ah well, you can't catch them all
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walterwhite
Member
"I am the one who knocks!"... Albuquerque, NM
Posts: 346
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Post by walterwhite on Feb 3, 2020 9:21:01 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months. Yes my target numbers have not been accurate from my Sept weekly thread. but I can afford to be wrong by a few months being in cash and now in puts. Apple going up 110 points since then made me excited about the opportunity that the incoming crash will bring and scared at the same time. Many will lose billions Those who bought 10 years ago will feel serious pain. TC needs to be fired. He said minimal impact in China and they are simply starting sterile efforts in China stores. Since he loves Chinese data and relied on its government for permission, he waited until after market close on Friday to announce all store closures. Keep in mind what happened last time all stores were open but for some crazy reason sales dropped 20% in China alone. If you think they will open stores in one week I have a bridge to sell you. There is plenty of data on the net about the virus outbreak. Those who think this is just another flu will be sadly mistaken. Yes we could look at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner. I see a 12% drop next week and stock will be halted at least 2 times this quarter with letters about restatement of sales for Q2. Won’t bore you with TA numbers but a p/e of 26 when net income up $2 billion in 2 years should make many pause. Just look at what happened to p/e when it was this high. Tim Cook should have listened to many who said get out. For profits and his love of socialism and communism he chose the latter. I would get out and follow my advise on Apple. We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years.
SPONGIEEE!!! i missed you so! no really, folks here will tell you i lamented your absence several times in the last few months! i 'liked' your post in the weekend thread, but that's just the fact of you being alive (and not blown up trying to short aapl).... certainly not the content of the post i disagree with those who wish you don't come back for 12 or 24 months.... i think a monthly prognostication like the above would be good for my trading edge as many here know, i've been getting a tad worried about the strength of our run-up and hedging quite a bit ahead of earnings (though have since removed most hedges on this mini-dip).... i needed your post as a contrarian indicator to keep me in... so now feel much more comfortable AAPL has legs to run higher. thanks man! p.s. 12% drop this week and being halted twice is cool, similar to your prior predictions.... but i'm particularly intrigued about ' at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner.'...... didn't know you had a degree in epidemiology! i better get my coronavirus mask on
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 3, 2020 11:04:33 GMT -8
I will post once and come back in 12 months ... Yes we could look at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner. ... I see a 12% drop next week and stock will be halted at least 2 times ... I would get out and follow my advi se on Apple. We are in a world of hurt that will last for 2-4 years. SPONGIEEE!!! i missed you so! no really, folks here will tell you i lamented your absence several times in the last few months! i 'liked' your post in the weekend thread, but that's just the fact of you being alive (and not blown up trying to short aapl).... certainly not the content of the post i disagree with those who wish you don't come back for 12 or 24 months.... i think a monthly prognostication like the above would be good for my trading edge as many here know, i've been getting a tad worried about the strength of our run-up and hedging quite a bit ahead of earnings (though have since removed most hedges on this mini-dip).... i needed your post as a contrarian indicator to keep me in... so now feel much more comfortable AAPL has legs to run higher. thanks man! p.s. 12% drop this week and being halted twice is cool, similar to your prior predictions.... but i'm particularly intrigued about ' at least 20 million deaths in 12 months or sooner.'...... didn't know you had a degree in epidemiology! i better get my coronavirus mask on You didn't know?? Sponge is an "expert" in epidemiology specializing in nCov. Just like he's "da man" to know Trump's -- and also China's -- exact next move in the trade war and, of course, AAPL's exact price target for the day, for next month, and all the way up to the next 4 years. Please, I beg you all, not to live in a world of hurt and just follow his advi se.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Feb 3, 2020 12:49:11 GMT -8
To be fair, Sponge DID beat everyone (analysts and amateurs) in PED's earning prediction sweepstakes a few quarters ago. As for the "12 months or sooner" it is within the realm of possibility. The "Spanish Flu" (H1N1) in 1918 killed 50 million world wide. Because the virus can spread without symptoms, it will be especially hard to stop by tracking the infected and by quarantines. I am not saying Sponge is correct and I don't really care for the certainty with which he asserts his hypotheses, but he is no fool. Let's just hope that he was looking at the wrong data set. Nice to have you back Sponge. BTW, H1N1 was particularly hard on the healthy 20-40 year olds.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 3, 2020 13:55:53 GMT -8
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on Feb 3, 2020 15:03:54 GMT -8
Enjoying Apple News and specifically the election coverage. They seem to be serious about minimizing the peddlers of misinformation.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 3, 2020 15:48:02 GMT -8
To be fair, Sponge DID beat everyone (analysts and amateurs) in PED's earning prediction sweepstakes a few quarters ago. As for the "12 months or sooner" it is within the realm of possibility. The "Spanish Flu" (H1N1) in 1918 killed 50 million world wide. Because the virus can spread without symptoms, it will be especially hard to stop by tracking the infected and by quarantines. I am not saying Sponge is correct and I don't really care for the certainty with which he asserts his hypotheses, but he is no fool. Let's just hope that he was looking at the wrong data set. Nice to have you back Sponge. BTW, H1N1 was particularly hard on the healthy 20-40 year olds. That's like saying Sponge won a game of Russian Roulette. It's all wild-ass guessing. I mean at least some of the pros have channel checks, which most of us think are BS, but at least its a methodology besides guessing. But the amateurs use what methods to "model" their numbers? If anything Sponge being "right" in a discipline should case serious doubt upon said discipline. It may surprise some of you that I don't like bullying people, so I've tried hard to bite my tongue on this topic. But to see someone so immune to good advice or exhibiting any ability to learn from others, or from his own mistakes, is just stupefying. For the love of money and all that's holy, there are people here worth many millions who simply bought and held the stock. That's it. Buy once and forget. I seriously doubt top pro traders have done better over the long haul. But Sponge is going straight to the poorhouse, outsmarting us all.
It may also surprise you that I have tried to learn from many of you, and still try to do so. And no I'm not saying who because you're already insufferable as it is.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Feb 3, 2020 18:18:15 GMT -8
I'm not here to necessarily pile on the train to bash Sponge, I also welcome his input even though I routinely disagree with it. Without contributors, this board evaporates into nothingness; plain & simple. Therefore, I'm appreciative of all mindful posts, even if I don't agree with the content. With that being said, I did screenshot this post on my phone almost exactly a year ago because I thought Sponge's predications were just SO out there. His predication of not seeing the high of 175 for 12-16 months could not have been more wrong with AAPL going on a run and nearly doubling from his quoted high. As such, I take his current predications with a grain of salt. Sure it could happen, but to so specifically call a 12% drop AND the timing of it is just ludicrous. If Sponge was so convinced of this price action he should then be buying massive puts with an options expiration date at the end of next week. Somehow I suspect he is not. This what I said yesterday morning. In looking at the SPY it wants to close between 270-271 by Friday. This means aapl should close at 171 and change. Apple recovered too quickly and now has faded down. So it does not appear to have the momentum of the market to push it above 176. We will have a better picture in about 2.5 hours. We were on our way to 176. I think we will close above 171 tomorrrow. The SPY brought us down. I had noticed a boatload of 270 puts trading yesterday. Looking into next week the SPY wants to slowly go down. We did not go above the 200MA and VIX is now moving up while oil is down. We should be flat for while from here on into next Friday. I believe the high of 175 yesterday will not be seen again for at least 12-16 months.
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