Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Feb 28, 2020 3:23:31 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Feb 28, 2020 3:44:19 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Feb 28, 2020 4:45:32 GMT -8
Spoke to my former wife who is in China. Says things are easing up there, from an almost complete shutdown for a few weeks.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Feb 28, 2020 5:01:45 GMT -8
Spoke to my former wife who is in China. Says things are easing up there, from an almost complete shutdown for a few weeks. Thank you for sharing that.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Feb 28, 2020 6:32:11 GMT -8
AAPL down nearly 5.5% pre-market. A reminder that the 200 day SMA is down at 240 & change. While I don't think we'll get there today if this action keeps up, we could be there early next week. I may try to catch the falling knife today by snagging up just a couple shares (10-15) as part of scaling in a new long position during the drop. The problem is as always, where the heck does this thing end? With an opening price of $258, AAPL is down nearly 22% from ATH.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 28, 2020 6:59:10 GMT -8
Down $53 from the highs. Similar to being down at 180 from 233. Hope we don't go to the 142 equivalent. Not happy to say that we're getting there.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 28, 2020 7:26:51 GMT -8
AAPL down nearly 5.5% pre-market. A reminder that the 200 day SMA is down at 240 & change. While I don't think we'll get there today if this action keeps up, we could be there early next week. I may try to catch the falling knife today by snagging up just a couple shares (10-15) as part of scaling in a new long position during the drop. The problem is as always, where the heck does this thing end? With an opening price of $258, AAPL is down nearly 22% from ATH. This is the kind of shakedown that the market needs sometimes to ease back the speculation. Looking at the charts for the past 5 years, the spike down on the RSI for AAPL and the S&P show how hard this drop is. It matches or beats any other drop in that 5 years, showing how violent the drop is. Blood in the streets! Capitulation? Sometime, but maybe not yet. After a long day yesterday, we have a water heater again, and a few bags of rice and other long term food. While I don't think things should get bad, the stock market reminds us of the psychology of crowds, and how not all is logical. $100 of shelf-stable food is cheap, especially if there was a run on food and it kept you out of that. I don't see it happening, but it's good to have some supplies on hand as general emergency preparedness, no matter the emergency. As to guessing for the day, at some point this rings of 2008, where some investors don't want to hold over the weekend. If the skew is bad news, then 3 days of it instead of just one. It seems that has been where things have been the past couple weeks. But, each time is a little different.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 28, 2020 7:36:06 GMT -8
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 28, 2020 7:39:59 GMT -8
What's the RSI now? 25?
Apart from historical comparisons and perspective, it won't make sense to use RSI as a tool in a situation like coronavirus.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 28, 2020 7:49:09 GMT -8
Like JD, I see this as a major opportunity to buy and keep loading up. We've both been beating the BTFD drum. FWIW, I've put in $100,000 in these 10 days. All in options - leaps as well as short-term. More next week.
The human race is not about to get wiped out.
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Post by zebrum on Feb 28, 2020 8:03:31 GMT -8
AAPL down nearly 5.5% pre-market. A reminder that the 200 day SMA is down at 240 & change. While I don't think we'll get there today if this action keeps up, we could be there early next week. I may try to catch the falling knife today by snagging up just a couple shares (10-15) as part of scaling in a new long position during the drop. The problem is as always, where the heck does this thing end? With an opening price of $258, AAPL is down nearly 22% from ATH. It's only the first week of the correction there will be many more. Usually the correction ends when there is talk of bankruptcy and no one in their right mind would buy and there are no buyers left, except us 😉
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Post by playultimate on Feb 28, 2020 8:14:09 GMT -8
Last Friday, AAPL was above $310. Crazy past 5 days.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 28, 2020 8:37:19 GMT -8
This is the greatest overreaction since Y2K. Total freaking nonsense. People are acting like a frightened primitive Amazon tribe that saw a jet airplane for the first time. The US has been stuck at 53 cases and zero deaths. Even in China, far below flu numbers. Total silliness! I wish the US government officials would start to state this, to calm the markets, instead of the neutral, "so far so good, but stay vigilant" gibberish.
Zero Hedge, noted doom-and-gloom site, had an article that suggested one reason that Asia was hit so hard - especially men - is the incidence of smoking in those countries. 2/3 of Chinese men smoke, which of course makes them more susceptible to respiratory diseases.
It would have been nice if one of the shareholders had asked Tim if there were plans to build some redundancy into Apple's supply chain, instead of asking about the Friends reunion and other dumb bunny questions.
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Post by dreamRaj on Feb 28, 2020 8:43:08 GMT -8
With that straight move up from 270 to 278 in a couple of minutes, seems to me like Apple is stepping in for AAPL.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Feb 28, 2020 9:00:07 GMT -8
It would have been nice if one of the shareholders had asked Tim if there were plans to build some redundancy into Apple's supply chain, instead of asking about the Friends reunion and other dumb bunny questions. Amen
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 28, 2020 9:13:39 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Feb 28, 2020 10:03:13 GMT -8
Hello green, I remember you.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Feb 28, 2020 10:24:06 GMT -8
Nice reversal - once panic and computer selling kick in, well there's just no knowing where the bottom is, until one is found - and sensible people start buying. I had recently rolled my "trading" account calls forward - I never try to time the market - my leaps are a way of owning more shared in a tax deferred account -without (hopefully) going to zero My call setting for Jan 2021 is $240 - these were mostly bought when we were still over $300 so there are seriously underwater of course, but - the question is - is this a crash or a V shape - the more seriously the virus is taken, rampant infection (such as we saw in China) will mitigate and hopefully never go to the alarming #s is did in Chine before measures were taken. Also very encouraging to see Tim C. saying their factories are returning to capacity - Tim #1 genius contribution to Apple has ALWAYS been the supply chain management - if he says they've taken steps, have alternate options, etc. I tend to believe him. Still a very nail biting week, but - markets always tend to over-react both on the down and upsides. Also quite interesting was a piece I saw a few days ago, this might actually push more demand back to end of FY 2020 - ie.. the iPhone 12 cycle, which wold not neccesalliyty be a bad thing! Goldman's call of ZERO profit growth updated forecast for 2020, was bold, but also like yelling FIRE in a crowded theater. Thanks GS! aren't they the same guys that have like $160 price target on Apple??? Heres to better days ahead - only trade I did this week was in my trading account - sold some calls down only 20% and bought some more AAPL Jan 2021 $240s. Good luck all!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 28, 2020 11:15:22 GMT -8
Goldman's call of ZERO profit growth updated forecast for 2020, was bold, but also like yelling FIRE in a crowded theater. Thanks GS! aren't they the same guys that have like $160 price target on Apple??? Goldman is of course evil and parasitic, and if there's a hell, they will be going to it. BUT if the news is going to be bad, let's get it out there sooner rather than later. Let's get expectations to rock bottom, so they are easier to beat, eh? I'm more fed up with CNBC's trolling chyrons. They love this shit.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Feb 28, 2020 11:50:45 GMT -8
It is morbidly fascinating how irrational and jittery the market behaviour is on a whole. Considering the run up of AAPL over the past year on the basis of its underlying fundamentals. Does Covid-19 really have a 20% material impact on the value of Apple? When individuals and institutions invest in AAPL you’d think that is done with rational consideration. And it could be argued that over that last year there has been nothing irrational about Apple’s valuation - it was a reflection of the observable fundamentals. Now we have a heard mentality that is driven by impulse. Who is participating in this downturn? Investors? Traders? Or both? I was considering going cash on about 7.5% of my holdings about a 2 weeks ago and I should have gone on those instincts but now I am going to sit it out because I am not convinced that this black swan event should have a 20% material impact on Apple’s value. Maybe I’m wrong ?
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Post by duckpins on Feb 28, 2020 12:15:08 GMT -8
I wrote this -below- on Feb 10th. Clearly there was lots of buying around 260 that stopped the fall and AAPL was doing better than the DOW this day anyway. Next week and the week after that. It is a while before viruses will subside with the sun and warmth of the season. Cramer said we go down a 1000 if there is 1 case in Africa. I thought that was a weird thing to say. GS makes lots from volatility. Surprised their stock has tanked. After all this we are going to see downgrades and earnings lowered. Good Apple got ahead of the curve, I hope anyway.
"If there is an earnings miss 300 will not hold, 265 then around 200 or 195 then 140. Last time the stock was obliterated it went from 700+ to a little over 350 fro Sept 2012 to Feb 2013. That was because Cook lost about 1-200 million phone sales. The market morphed to larger phones which Samsung got and Cook did not. First serious post Jobs mistake. The iPhone 5 and 5+ were not where the demand was. This time it is extraneous events that might impact sales will determine where the stock goes short term. If Bernie gets the nomination the market could have a hissy fit. If Trump gets beat they could be diving out of Goldman Sachs windows. Hope for the best but some thought for an extended down turn is not a waste of time. "
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 28, 2020 12:33:56 GMT -8
It is morbidly fascinating how irrational and jittery the market behaviour is on a whole. Considering the run up of AAPL over the past year on the basis of its underlying fundamentals. Does Covid-19 really have a 20% material impact on the value of Apple? When individuals and institutions invest in AAPL you’d think that is done with rational consideration. And it could be argued that over that last year there has been nothing irrational about Apple’s valuation - it was a reflection of the observable fundamentals. Now we have a heard mentality that is driven by impulse. Who is participating in this downturn? Investors? Traders? Or both? I was considering going cash on about 7.5% of my holdings about a 2 weeks ago and I should have gone on those instincts but now I am going to sit it out because I am not convinced that this black swan event should have a 20% material impact on Apple’s value. Maybe I’m wrong ? Shoulda woulda coulda! Me too! After meeting with some friends a couple weeks ago when one wanted thoughts and planning about the virus, the other mentioned selling off a little even if asking or thinking about such, since it shows the underlying doubts. And so I was going to sell a little. I didn't. I'm sure there was some reason, like a rushed bathroom remodel before friends and relatives arrival. Whatever....no selling took place by me. And so, like other corrections or resets over the last decade or more, I'm sitting here doing nothing. Which is fine, and is a good thing to do here unless I want to take on added risk. But of course the "shoulda woulda coulda" mindset makes me think like a CA lottery ticket, imagining what could be, "Dream a little dream for me". OTOH, when AAPL and other things increase so quickly, I think you have to remember that it is possible for the price to get ahead of itself. Prices are rarely what an impartial judge might consider the fair price. What if, instead of being fairly priced a couple weeks ago, AAPL was instead 10% overpriced. And now, with some fear added in, AAPL is 10% underpriced. If this was right, the coronavirus would have no value, but rather just be the catalyst that made people change from "risk-on" to "I'm so scared". Some Apple purchases might be delayed, and so there is a real valuation change to this too. But most of the change is in the error bounds, going from one direction to the other around what one might feel is the actual valuation. But hell yea, I'd love to have played that 20% change correctly. OTOH, when the relatives talk with my wife and ask how I am doing, with the huge drop in stocks and AAPL, she can truthfully say that I'm not really any different, and that we're not worried at all. We'll get through this. This isn't that deadly of a thing, and it's mostly the fear of the unknown that is shaking thing up. But, that doesn't mean it is over. Market psychology is a strange thing, and I can easily come up with one headline or another that would choose the direction next week. Heck, just like the ups and downs due to an interest rate change can vary more on the context or psychology than the actual change in the rate, the underlying story and readiness for the market to digest it can change with the exact same stats. But, we'll get through this. Eventually.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 28, 2020 12:44:14 GMT -8
In the long run the downturns are increasingly rapid. There was the Reagan crash in the 80s and the flash crash. But now these massive drops are normalizing. Could be the control the computers have over trading. Curiously it stands to reason if they are all programmed alike, they will trade the same way. So when they read virus in africa in one of their scans they all sell the market. This then snowballs. This rapid flow down may be the new normal. Bear market in 2 weeks to 4 and then trickle up.
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Post by duckpins on Feb 28, 2020 12:59:01 GMT -8
"AMONG THE MANY THINGS THAT EQUITY INVESTORS should worry about, a possible flu pandemic should be well down on the list." Hulbert on the Markets from Barrons.
Maybe move it up a notch or two?
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Post by longsince98 on Feb 28, 2020 14:38:30 GMT -8
Knowing that AAPL will certainly be much higher in the future, but less certainly that it will be lower, I’m happy to catch this falling knife.
I bought 21k shares on a fire sale!
“Be greedy when others are fearful”
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 28, 2020 15:04:56 GMT -8
Knowing that AAPL will certainly be much higher in the future, but less certainly that it will be lower, I’m happy to catch this falling knife. I bought 21k shares on a fire sale! “Be greedy when others are fearful” Nice! I pulled up my accounts in the last 15 minutes to see about picking up some SPY and AAPL, but with rising prices I ended up holding off. I see the Jan '21 330's I previously wrote were back down to what I wrote them at. Lots of movement this week. I'll have to peruse the option chains this weekend and see if there is something to grab on monday, especially on another dip.
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