Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Mar 6, 2020 3:44:31 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Mar 6, 2020 3:57:41 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Mar 6, 2020 4:04:04 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Mar 6, 2020 4:55:05 GMT -8
Re Covus-19, the macro picture could be worse for the US economy than China's. We will see huge cutbacks on airline and cruise ship travel in the coming months, but maybe people will spend instead on Apple products There were some good articles in the NYT today about the virus's impacts around the world. One takeaway was that it is worse under totalitarian regimes, such as Iran, who try to limit information to the public. This was another article that I found had sound reasoning: www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/business/coronavirus-economy-us-china.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=HomepagePerhaps all the hysteria about the virus is overblown, but it just might be a spur to having people wash their hands before exiting the restroom, and that would be a good thing. Meanwhile, I'm NOT buying the dip yet. Sorry.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Mar 6, 2020 9:21:09 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 6, 2020 10:07:46 GMT -8
Perhaps all the hysteria about the virus is overblown, but it just might be a spur to having people wash their hands before exiting the restroom, and that would be a good thing. While that could be a side benefit, this one's transfer isn't related to going to the bathroom. It's saliva droplets, through coughing or sneezing, or transfer of such. And then being picked up by someone else, and making it to their eyes, nose, or mouth. IMO, some to many have gotten too lax in not staying home, and keeping the kids home, when they are sick. Get people to stay home when they are sick (with symptoms), and you'll make a huge dent in the spreading of this and other sicknesses. And then we all need to work on washing our hands more, and not touching our eyes/nose/mouth. People in the hospital setting train on those things. The general population doesn't. Garlic or even mint on the fingertips might help us remember. So might just a cheap pair of knit gloves. Fear of the unknown can be separate from the actual disease, and the rational response to it. The question is if people will want to buy before the weekend, or sell. With the direction of the virus spread, I would think more would want to sell before the weekend, and then buy back in on Monday if over-the-weekend news isn't terrible. But that's just the guess I would make. The rollercoaster continues! Recent years of relative calmness have made me forget some of the times in the past where these multi percent daily gyrations were a common thing.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 6, 2020 10:16:20 GMT -8
Here are some perspectives that mirror my unchanged take: NBC News: Dr. Drew Pinsky's message to media: Stop fanning the flames of panic on coronavirusIf you are over 6 or under 75 and not already immunocompromised, this is probably like a moderate to bad cold. I heard a great take yesterday that said that the cruise ship Diamond Princess was the best testing model, since it is a controlled environment.
4,061 passengers, 705 cases (includes 392 asymptomatic cases!), 6 deaths. That's <1% death rate without access to a real hospital.
Meanwhile, CNBC remains the Coronavirus National Broadcasting Network. Jim Cramer actually said to Larry Kudlow this morning that the president should consider a "Manhattan Project" type program to combat COVID-19. Fake news gets ratings.
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Post by firestorm on Mar 6, 2020 10:25:54 GMT -8
The question is if people will want to buy before the weekend, or sell. With the direction of the virus spread, I would think more would want to sell before the weekend, and then buy back in on Monday if over-the-weekend news isn't terrible. But that's just the guess I would make. With the news changing so quickly, if I was trading right now I would not hold into the weekend. The downside might be large but the potential upside small because this thing will not be resolved quickly.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Mar 6, 2020 13:12:19 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 6, 2020 13:14:44 GMT -8
With the news changing so quickly, if I was trading right now I would not hold into the weekend. The downside might be large but the potential upside small because this thing will not be resolved quickly. Interesting. The tide, on the psychological front, might be changing. That was a decent move up in the last hour, for the S&P and for AAPL. I was going to buy the other small chunk of SPY in an account, back at 290, but it climbed on out of there. And while the account was showing me 294 for a bit and I was ready to buy, in placing the order it showed me it was dishing out 20 minute delayed prices. What! In one way I see this going on a while. The virus might become more well known and quantified, ideally that it isn't too bad. But financially, there could be a lag as those that didn't warn give earnings that are on the low side. Likewise, on the psychological side it's hard to know when things will come around. OTOH, the S&P touched down a little higher than it's past low, and we had buying into the close before a weekend. I could see, especially on some quantifiable info, things settling to a midpoint in the high/low range, for a while. Unknowns are scary. But while the spread is growing, the range of outcomes is narrowing, and people are slowly deciding that this might not be the end of life as we know it.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 6, 2020 13:21:09 GMT -8
During the first 40,000 to 60,000 cases there weren't good testing methods. If you only count those having bad symptoms, you're probably going to get worse outcomes. The study of some of the first 99 patients by a hospital in China saw 10 of them die. These were some of the worst cases, and I believe just over 50% of the 99 had preexisting issues. It's not all sunshine and rainbows. But it sounds more similar to a bad flu strain. CNN has a clip of an interview from someone who got it on the Diamond Princess cruise, and the worst thing he had was a high fever that hit him very quickly. One person's symptoms don't define it, just as some years the normal flu has hit those in my immediate family differently. But, it is a data point.
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Post by lulli on Mar 6, 2020 14:46:52 GMT -8
Regarding covid-19 death rates, you need to be careful.
In terms of possible death, it is certainly much worse than the flu.
But if you just take the ratio of deaths to total number of reported cases you are including the freshly reported cases that just fell ill and haven't recovered yet. To properly define a rate you need to let the two possible outcomes (recovery or death) play out completely, and that hasn't happened yet for the newest cases. But the problem is that this would make the apparent death rate smaller, not higher.
JD mentioned the micrcosm of the cruise ship. Counterargument is italy. Italy has a fresh outbreak localized in the north. Italy is responding quickly and it is pretty transparent about reporting everything, which make the case an interesting benchmark. As I type italy has 4636 cases, 197 deaths, 523 recovered. If you just take the ratio between deaths and the number of cases you get more than 4% death rate, which is pretty high. The picture is complicated as you can see by the small numbers of recovered people: the outbreak is too young to have given a chance to most of the sick to recover. Anyhow, this may be a worst case scenario in a densely populated area, but 4% is high, probably something like 50 times higher than the flu. Then again, every region has its peculiarity, and there is too much that we don't know. See for example the case of south corea. Many more reported cases than italy but much fewer deaths. So, the data is lacking and the situation is complicated. But until we know more, being careful and not downplaying the risk is the right thing to do. In any case, don't go cherry picking just one statistics because then it is too easy to find the number one wants.
Sorry for any typos. I was writing this quickly and I just realized that I have to go...
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Post by hledgard on Mar 6, 2020 19:06:22 GMT -8
So why is China easing up on the whole thing? I presume the problem is not as bad as they thought, or the worst has already happened and things can now get better (for whatever reason)
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Mar 7, 2020 4:27:19 GMT -8
So why is China easing up on the whole thing? I presume the problem is not as bad as they thought, or the worst has already happened and things can now get better (for whatever reason) Or, China is not being honest with their statistics. After all, they want to get their industrial complex running again and return to making money. They understand that the longer they deprive the world of their goods the greater the chance that they will start to lose business to other countries. Or, China’s statistics are wrong. People fear if they get sick and seek help they and their family may be shipped off to an internment complex, maybe never to be seen again. Or, and I truly hope that this the case, like Hledgard said that the nation is starting to recover and returning to something normal.
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Post by chasmac on Mar 9, 2020 2:19:49 GMT -8
Bookmark this page for future reference.
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