With the level of health uncertainty created by the lack of testing, it's likely there are thousands of people walking around with the virus and passing it to others. It's contagious 5 days before symptoms start showing.
My prediction: 30-50% of the US population will get this virus. Over a million Americans will die, most in their 70s and older. Doctors and nurses will fall sick. Hospitals will be overwhelmed, and the death rate will increase as the quality of medical care goes down. Hospitals will have piles of contagious bodies they can't manage.
For people under 50, they will get a sickness that may knock them into bed for a few days but then they'll recover. However, with all the cancelations and fear, this year will become one of the worst for the US economy on record. Travel, events, and restaurants will all suffer. The people who work in those industries will suffer the most. The snowball effect on the economy from recession will be great -- possibly greater than the financial crisis.
Happy to be wrong though!
Yes, those scary scenarios all seem very possible to me. Hope you’re wrong but we really need to be thinking along those lines when considering when to buy more Apple. Still far from the 20 million deaths sponge predicted but he was doing better than I thought at the time.
Post by socal Film Composer on Mar 12, 2020 12:01:08 GMT -5
Welp - with margin rates absolutely like free money - if you choose to, go ahead and add some down here - That's what I did back when we hit 155-160 range back in dec. 2018. over exposed to AAPL right now - between sep and common in non-retirement have about 284K shares in common (77K) and leaps in SEP another 210K -
But, as a Californian - I'm taking advantage of the selloff in closed end tax free munis - crazy deals out here in the Pimco CEFs for safety and income. Good luck all, this too shall pass - it's a health crisis first, ecomonic crisis 2nd. I'm predicting more or less a V shape recovery once the virus passes, governments begin to pass stimulus measures to jump start the economy. I'm remaining positive and thankful - and thankful to all of you on this board who have provided so much excellent commentary on our favorite stock and company.
At the least, I hope this will move the needle on the need for public preparedness and infrastructure for the next one - because Mother Earth is screaming back at us - 6 billion people, global connected planet and economies - we have to learn how to live safely and prudently with our resources, food supplies, and take these things seriously when they happen.
BTW - I'm super excited about the new AAPL over the ear headphones - just praying they also have a corded option as well as wireless, which might be a stretch - but in the studio wired is only acceptable when working.
Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and China already reduced the number of new cases by having testing kits available to its citizens. It’s difficult to quarantine people without testing. In the U.S., we don’t know how extensive the infection is.
China is returning to normal, Korea's number is plateauing, huge preventative measures in EU and USA today. Today is probably the best day to buy this dip, but tomorrow would be fine too because of usual Friday lull.
Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 12, 2020 12:32:37 GMT -5
I don't see many preventative measures in the US at all... Look at Italy, where everything is closed except for supermarkets and pharmacies. Travel is prohibited without special permission. That is what could be coming.
yeah, preventative? Really? until/unless we get some leadership that knows what it's doing, and/or someone at the top who can establish public trust, FUD is still going to continue to rule this crisis. I want to buy in more too but the falling knife thing is concerning. Something like June 2021 $300 calls are enticing...
Posts like this are really stupid because the for profit health care system operates on 100% capacity. There is no excess capacity. The system is already overwhelmed and has been for years. My Mother with a bleeding stroke was treated in the halls of Alta Bates hospital in Berkeley as well as the John Muir in Walnut Creek. Our health care starts out worse than many 3rd world countries and if this explodes will rapidly reveal itself for what it is. if there are no empty beds how can you say things like "it is going to be overwhelmed"?
Cramer is now calling for a bail out of the oil industry. He says many US producers will go under at these oil prices. So he wants the government to intervene to raise the price. I guess oil is the new milk. Virtually every stock is lower in the Nasdaq 100. Tiffany is being sold for 134 cash. It is trading at 126. The deal should close this summer. Not even the arbitrage buyers are buying. This sell off shows a lack of buyers. You can make a few bucks on tiffany...
Seeing a few spikes in the price. Could Apple be buying?
At around 1pm? Many other tech stocks spiked too.
The AAPL chart, with the S&P and Dow overlaid on it, it's nearly an exact match.
Volume-wise, SPY is triple the average, whereas AAPL is only 250% of average.
OTOH, earlier today when I checked, the S&P was down maybe 26% from it's peak, while AAPL only 24%.
I don't know how many instantaneous purchases Apple makes. It sounds like many are longer term, giving an outside company money to buy with and choice of when to do it.
The Jan '21 330 covered calls I wrote are almost back to the $10.34 I wrote them at. I put in an order to buy them back, but then changed it lower. It's a slight insurance, but given the path AAPL took since I wrote those, I'd rather buy them back and sell new ones a little higher, once AAPL has recovered a bit.
Good luck out there. Lots of trading in the indexes. Some articles of places starting to buy back in. Lots of blood in the street, and it's feeling bad even for those who've been through this a few times. I'll refrain from saying that means something, because this is the time where it feels like it can just keep on going, but it may very well mean something.
We have the choice to build this board up, or tear it down. Make the right choice, or don't post here.
To All: Please remember to keep non-Apple SPECIFIC political stuff out of the daily thread. Post it over in the Dungeon, if you really want to discuss it with others on the AAPL Finance Board.
8-24-20 I give a 40+% probability on 15% annualized returns for the next 2 years. For Sept expirations, using today's $503, that's roughly $585 for Sept '21, $675 for Sept '22
Would it be good time to float another sizable bond - as noted on this board as essentially free borrowing - to fund increased buybacks? Uh, except for the optics.
Why do it right now?
I feel the Fed will likely drop rates another quarter, when they meet next (less than 2 weeks). Depending, there could be another drop.
The drops tend to stick for a while. The cheap money will be around for a while. It might not line up with the very lowest stock price, but that's ok.
I agree. No hurry. I see they’ve roughly $100B net cash. I don’t follow the bond market. Right now there seems to be an appetite for cash/liquidity anyways. Luca is smarter than me. I’ve just felt it was a lost opportunity when they didn’t by much more during the last swoon. Ive opined that management and the board must feel comfortable having a $100B fat stack at the ready.
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5