Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
|
Post by Dave on Apr 7, 2020 2:37:42 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
|
Post by Dave on Apr 7, 2020 4:00:31 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
|
Post by Dave on Apr 7, 2020 4:04:52 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by pauls on Apr 7, 2020 5:06:44 GMT -8
"Positive news is what everyone is looking for."
Put me down for more testing.
|
|
|
Post by socal Film Composer on Apr 7, 2020 5:33:03 GMT -8
Thanks Dave for opening - wow that Evercore note sounds like something I would love to read, so much of our personal net worth in AAPL that i want to see if I can purchase a copy of that report - esp. since it is more of a 5 year review, which is how I like to make my investing decisions. The charts and the markets looking more and more like a V, but just hope the health and safety picture follows. If that was the bottom a few weeks, ago, I glad I bought so much of AAPL and many others.
Here's to better days, nice to see some more green. I don't think we're anywhere close to out of the woods - earnings season is going to be painful, and will point our more of the winners, survivors and losers will emerge.
Aside from the budget iPhone, the internet has been buzzing also about AAPLs new "tile" product - bluetooth, key finder thing - sign me up for that, I have some goefinders on my 3 different pairs of glasses for various distances and they are a life saver.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
|
Post by Dave on Apr 7, 2020 6:19:19 GMT -8
Remember that there are several gaps in the AAPL chart, both below us and above us. I can’t explain why gaps in the charts tend to eventually get filled, but it does happen many times, but not every time. Just sayin’.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
|
Post by Dave on Apr 7, 2020 6:27:40 GMT -8
This is from the comments section of this link: I believe that this is so true. This is why having a big pile of $’s in the bank allows a company to wait for product perfection before releasing it to the market.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Apr 7, 2020 7:46:30 GMT -8
Remember that there are several gaps in the AAPL chart, both below us and above us. I can’t explain why gaps in the charts tend to eventually get filled, but it does happen many times, but not every time. Just sayin’. The easy guess is that past performance dictates where people pre-enter orders or have in their mind that they would like to buy, or that they would sell "if things got below where they were before". So, places where the stock zoomed through before, the stock is likely to zoom through again. Looking at the recent past, how many bought at 212, 215, or anywhere below 220? OTOH, how many here have at least said to themselves, "I wish I bought at that level, and I would buy there now"? Especially as we get more info, and have had more time to digest things and decide what is or isn't an overreaction. There's a lot of psychology there. But, if I'm trying to buy at that level, I figure others probably are too, and so maybe I up my bid by a few dimes or a few dollars, in trying to ensure I get a purchase. It's a psychological bidding war, trying to get a good price, but trying to make sure you get your cabbage patch kid (or in current terms, a Nintendo Switch). I've tried to split the purchases, taking a little now, but willing to take on more risk and make a larger purchase if things get cheaper, all while thinking long term and only playing with a small pool of the overall portfolio. OTOH, in talking to various friends, from a 10' position, some are happy to not worry about it and keep plugging away into their 401k, while another said he sold things and put them into a double or triple bearish fund on the way down, and was now looking to get back in (I don't know if he sold the bearish position or not). Timing is tough. I've decided I can borrow a little to buy when things are down, but even that is tough on deciding if it's just going to be a quick 10-19.9% flash crash that happens every year or two, or a real 30+% zinger that may stick around a bit. FWIW, I don't think there's a letter that describes my recovery guess. I see it more as a heartbeat, with spikes and bumps up and down, as it settles down fairly quickly (and in this case initially) at some percentage of the high to low range. Maybe that's at the 2/3rds mark? Maybe it's less, at 60% or 50%. But as we digest the longer term impact, it seems that as long as the worst case scenario withers, we'll then have to figure out how badly the economy on a whole, looking at 3-6-12 months, is going to do. And what it will take to recover.
|
|
hledgard
Member
Posts: 782
Member is Online
|
Post by hledgard on Apr 7, 2020 16:18:02 GMT -8
With a big jump to almost 2,000 deaths in one day, I can only see red for tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Apr 7, 2020 16:29:00 GMT -8
With a big jump to almost 2,000 deaths in one day, I can only see red for tomorrow. I'd suggest we try to give *less* thought about what the AAPL share price might be tomorrow and *more* thought about the death of almost 2,000 citizens today. As much as we all value our investments, let's try to keep things in perspective.
|
|
|
Post by pauls on Apr 7, 2020 17:19:42 GMT -8
With a big jump to almost 2,000 deaths in one day, I can only see red for tomorrow. Rising death rate was expected ‘this week’. We are officially above my max predicted death count from the macabre poll from just a few weeks ago. I’m guessing another 15-20 days of 1000+ deaths. But like before, this is pure hope guessing. I’ve seen some smart people estimating <50,000 US deaths IF social distancing/ shut down continues. Same people also predict a second, lesser wave in the Fall. Still a huge amount of deaths. And just harrowing circumstances. I thought we’d be at $220 by now.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Apr 7, 2020 17:58:55 GMT -8
With a big jump to almost 2,000 deaths in one day, I can only see red for tomorrow. I'd suggest we try to give *less* thought about what the AAPL share price might be tomorrow and *more* thought about the death of almost 2,000 citizens today. As much as we all value our investments, let's try to keep things in perspective. The death rate is fairly directly related to the number of new cases, 4-7 days previous. It varies if more non-hospitalization cases are found, but things aren't great for some percentage that get admitted to the hospital. The best thing that can happen, health wise but indirectly for the economy and market, is for fewer people to get this, and thus lower positives. Things are changing. Word from my wife's trip to Costco today was that about half (EDIT: That's more than in the past) were wearings masks/gloves. I'd expect in a place hit worse, that the percentages would be different.
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Apr 8, 2020 4:02:52 GMT -8
I'd suggest we try to give *less* thought about what the AAPL share price might be tomorrow and *more* thought about the death of almost 2,000 citizens today. As much as we all value our investments, let's try to keep things in perspective. The death rate is fairly directly related to the number of new cases, 4-7 days previous. It varies if more non-hospitalization cases are found, but things aren't great for some percentage that get admitted to the hospital. The best thing that can happen, health wise but indirectly for the economy and market, is for fewer people to get this, and thus lower positives. Things are changing. Word from my wife's trip to Costco today was that only half were wearings masks/gloves. I'd expect in a place hit worse, that the percentages would be different. Yea, I went to our local grocery store today and none of the employees was wearing a mask including the older workers. It was almost as if their management had directed them not to. I should have asked.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Apr 8, 2020 7:57:20 GMT -8
The death rate is fairly directly related to the number of new cases, 4-7 days previous. It varies if more non-hospitalization cases are found, but things aren't great for some percentage that get admitted to the hospital. The best thing that can happen, health wise but indirectly for the economy and market, is for fewer people to get this, and thus lower positives. Things are changing. Word from my wife's trip to Costco today was that only half were wearings masks/gloves. I'd expect in a place hit worse, that the percentages would be different. Yea, I went to our local grocery store today and none of the employees was wearing a mask including the older workers. It was almost as if their management had directed them not to. I should have asked. What state and are are you in, silkstone? I'm in the SF Bay Area in California and it's very inconsistent with stores. We went shopping this morning at 6:00 AM and went to our normal two stores. Although both stores had plenty of signs and floor markings about social distancing, no reusable bags allowed in the store, etc., only one of the stores had every store employee using a mask. The other store was about 1/3 using masks. Clearly no store policy requiring them.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Apr 8, 2020 8:42:37 GMT -8
I'm in the SF Bay Area in California and it's very inconsistent with stores. We went shopping this morning at 6:00 AM and went to our normal two stores. Although both stores had plenty of signs and floor markings about social distancing, no reusable bags allowed in the store, etc., only one of the stores had every store employee using a mask. The other store was about 1/3 using masks. Clearly no store policy requiring them. I've heard that Safeway put in "protective plexiglass" for the cashiers a couple weeks ago, and now Raleys and Trader Joes has done that. I'd expect the same in the bay area, along with related stores (Nob Hill). Costco apparently had stainless steel tables for their receipt checkers, and plexiglass, having you put your receipt up to it. While I understand, when it was described it sounded as if there should be a tower above with high powered rifles. Fun facts: Carding for alcohol is up, due to face masks. My wife didn't bring her ID in to Trader Joes, so they wouldn't let her buy a six pack. Ahhhh, making us feel young again, greying hair and all.
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on Apr 8, 2020 13:18:28 GMT -8
Yea, I went to our local grocery store today and none of the employees was wearing a mask including the older workers. It was almost as if their management had directed them not to. I should have asked. What state and are are you in, silkstone? I'm in the SF Bay Area in California and it's very inconsistent with stores. We went shopping this morning at 6:00 AM and went to our normal two stores. Although both stores had plenty of signs and floor markings about social distancing, no reusable bags allowed in the store, etc., only one of the stores had every store employee using a mask. The other store was about 1/3 using masks. Clearly no store policy requiring them. I’m in Knoxville, TN. I was just wondering if grocery workers are being unnecessarily exposed because management doesn’t want to scare customers away. It’s bad enough that healthcare workers are dying.
|
|