Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,127
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Post by Dave on Apr 23, 2020 2:53:21 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,127
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Post by Dave on Apr 23, 2020 3:01:55 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,127
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Post by Dave on Apr 23, 2020 6:13:48 GMT -8
AAPL didn't stay in the red for long. Up $3.32 at the moment.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,353
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Post by bud777 on Apr 23, 2020 7:04:40 GMT -8
I am not sure I believe the Wedbush article.
"we continue to believe there are 4 models being discussed for iPhone 12 with a mix of 4G/5G that will likely be launched between the October and early December timeframe ahead of holiday season. Importantly, we note these models can still change as Cupertino appears to still be on the white board with a mix of 4G/5G and how many models will ultimately get green lighted…"
In my experience, it takes a minimum of 18 months to develop a product that has the complexity of an iPhone. Think about the complexity of the new chips, the negotiations involved with the supply chain, the cost of moving a product to production and then cancelling it. The decision about what will be introduced and when was made months ago. The only "Whiteboard" aspect of this is the analysts dart throwing.
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SomeJuan
Member
Taking a nap…
Posts: 321
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Post by SomeJuan on Apr 23, 2020 7:32:23 GMT -8
On March 18 2020 Apple laid off 2700 full time employees and 1400 contractors. A very small number, all things considered. I imagine that number will take a big jump by earnings next week. I sincerely hope Tim and Luca can use the cash war chest to alleviate some of this. The unemployment number this morning was disheartening to say the least, another 4.4 million bringing it to 26 million in 5 weeks. But numbers are not measured in 5 week increments! Since Jan 1, 2020, the US has lost 28,840,000 workers, and at that time 5,920,000 were already unemployed, which brings the total YTD number to 34,774,000. With 162,000,000 in the labor force today(+/-). Source www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htmThat puts us at an unemployment rate of 22% (+/-) as of today. Next Thursday i anticipate 5,000,000 more to be added to the figures, back o the napkin math puts us at 39,774,00 on April 30, 2020, or an unemployment rate of (+/-) 24.5% to close out the month of April. I cannot image a scenario where we do not add an additional 10,000,000 to the unemployment numbers by May 30th 2020, putting us at (+/-) 45,000,000 out of work. That would put us at 28% unemployment, the highest rate ever measured, beating even 1933 which clocked in at 24.9% during the great depression. Even worse is the Saint Louis Fed predicts us to hit 32% before year’s end. One third of the labor force! How and when we come out of the backside of this is multiples of years at best, a decade is not out of the question, so the ‘20’s may very well be the lost decade. Am i the only one who can not see a very serious Black Swan coming down the track, and if not, i sure would like some council on how to manage assets going forward. I am all ears...
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Post by Lstream on Apr 23, 2020 9:00:06 GMT -8
Macentropist,
Don't consider any of this counselling, as each of us have different realities to deal with. I decided in March that we could be dealing with a long-term nasty situation here. Guess you could call it Black Swan. I am fortunate that I have been a buy and hold investor since 2002, so I have done well. This leaves me with options that others might not have.
I made the decision to sell enough Apple and other stocks, to provide me with enough liquidity for 2-3 years no matter what. I may choose to invest some of it. Or I might just leave it in cash for a while. That is TBD. So if the Black Swan hits, I will not be forced to do anything drastic, like sell a bunch of Apple at depressed prices. I have made the arbitrary decision that if Apple gets to $200, I will make one more sale to buy myself more insurance. After that I will just ride out whatever happens.
My spending rate is way down, because I don't have anywhere to really spend much. Prior to Covid, I was doing a bunch of travel to enjoy life. Now I can't do that anymore. So I am kind of in a forced austerity program. I am filing in the time by learning new stuff like making Artisan bread, and using Coursera to learn Final Cut Pro. I am also making some minor tech purchases like action cams that I will use to gather sports car footage and other material. Then I will be using FCP to be creative. Never had the time for any of this before.
For those that are having a hard time filling their day, I would highly recommend Coursera. Just a crazy amount of content there.
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Post by playultimate on Apr 23, 2020 9:10:17 GMT -8
On March 18 2020 Apple laid off 2700 full time employees and 1400 contractors. A very small number, all things considered. I imagine that number will take a big jump by earnings next week. I sincerely hope Tim and Luca can use the cash war chest to alleviate some of this. The unemployment number this morning was disheartening to say the least, another 4.4 million bringing it to 26 million in 5 weeks. But numbers are not measured in 5 week increments! Since Jan 1, 2020, the US has lost 28,840,000 workers, and at that time 5,920,000 were already unemployed, which brings the total YTD number to 34,774,000. With 162,000,000 in the labor force today(+/-). Source www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htmThat puts us at an unemployment rate of 22% (+/-) as of today. Next Thursday i anticipate 5,000,000 more to be added to the figures, back o the napkin math puts us at 39,774,00 on April 30, 2020, or an unemployment rate of (+/-) 24.5% to close out the month of April. I cannot image a scenario where we do not add an additional 10,000,000 to the unemployment numbers by May 30th 2020, putting us at (+/-) 45,000,000 out of work. That would put us at 28% unemployment, the highest rate ever measured, beating even 1933 which clocked in at 24.9% during the great depression. Even worse is the Saint Louis Fed predicts us to hit 32% before year’s end. One third of the labor force! How and when we come out of the backside of this is multiples of years at best, a decade is not out of the question, so the ‘20’s may very well be the lost decade. Am i the only one who can not see a very serious Black Swan coming down the track, and if not, i sure would like some council on how to manage assets going forward. I am all ears... According to the LA Times, only 45% of Los Angeles County workers have a job (https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-04-17/usc-coronavirus-survey) . That is a 55% unemployment rate. Most of those though are merely furloughed and will be hired when parts of the economy are reopened; assuming they will reopen. With CO, TX. et al. beginning to open up in the next few weeks, that will give us a better idea about economic recovery. However, in every crisis, there is opportunity. I suspect HVAC companies will be busy retrofitting the ventilation of large offices to either clean or prevent the recycling of air. Office furniture may see growth as business retrofit their space to allow for greater social distancing (is the open office dead?) There will likely be much change as businesses shift to the "new" normal. Some questions I have: how will conventions, sports events, movie theaters respond to these changes? air travel? schools? Lots of businesses require getting lots of people in limited space. Social distancing rules will set density limits that will affect those industries. How will that affect the economics? Will there be a shift toward more TV events and less in person? (FWIW, bad timing for the new Las Vegas football stadium) Wish I had answers.
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stub
Member
The fix is in. Be patient. Don't panic.
Posts: 300
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Post by stub on Apr 23, 2020 12:19:09 GMT -8
On March 18 2020 Apple laid off 2700 full time employees and 1400 contractors. A very small number, all things considered. I imagine that number will take a big jump by earnings next week. I sincerely hope Tim and Luca can use the cash war chest to alleviate some of this. The unemployment number this morning was disheartening to say the least, another 4.4 million bringing it to 26 million in 5 weeks. But numbers are not measured in 5 week increments! Since Jan 1, 2020, the US has lost 28,840,000 workers, and at that time 5,920,000 were already unemployed, which brings the total YTD number to 34,774,000. With 162,000,000 in the labor force today(+/-). Source www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htmThat puts us at an unemployment rate of 22% (+/-) as of today. Next Thursday i anticipate 5,000,000 more to be added to the figures, back o the napkin math puts us at 39,774,00 on April 30, 2020, or an unemployment rate of (+/-) 24.5% to close out the month of April. I cannot image a scenario where we do not add an additional 10,000,000 to the unemployment numbers by May 30th 2020, putting us at (+/-) 45,000,000 out of work. That would put us at 28% unemployment, the highest rate ever measured, beating even 1933 which clocked in at 24.9% during the great depression. Even worse is the Saint Louis Fed predicts us to hit 32% before year’s end. One third of the labor force! How and when we come out of the backside of this is multiples of years at best, a decade is not out of the question, so the ‘20’s may very well be the lost decade. Am i the only one who can not see a very serious Black Swan coming down the track, and if not, i sure would like some council on how to manage assets going forward. I am all ears... Actually, I wouldn't spook. I would stay put and hold. Not only that, but I would say we are still in a relatively good buying season. Any stock price under $270, I'd buy. Things could change rapidly for the better in a relatively short period of time. Here's some very obscure indicators... Did you know that about 3 years ago, Coronavirus Pandemic Bonds were issued by The World Bank. Here's how they work: Investors buy them for pretty substantial amounts of money. They get an 11% Annual Return. Pretty good deal right? But... If there is a corona virus pandemic declared and it meets the following criteria: It has to span at least 8 countries. Last for no less than 12 weeks. And have at least 2,500 deaths. If/when this criteria happens, (which it will, if we start counting from mid-March 2020 in the USA, and the Pandemic "officially" continues until mid-June 2020) the investors lose their entire principle and can only keep what they made in interest until the criteria happens. These Bonds are set to expire on June 30, 2020. So this criteria has to transpire by then. Which it is on track to do. So it looks like the investors who purchased these Bonds are SOL (ouch). btw... who even heard the word "coronavirus" 3 years ago? Hmmm... But that's a whole different discussion. My take here is to hold onto your AAPL till at least the Santa Claus rally this year (December, 2020). We should be hitting new highs by then. And I'll think you'll be in great shape. Then I'd decide how you want to slice it up for tax purposes on the cusp of the Calendar year. Also, FWIW, I saw a video recently with the President of the St. Louis Fed. Honestly, my take away on this guy was ummm... "Used Car Salesman wearing a nice suit" This is just my opinion but, he struck me as kind of sleezy, because he was hawking home testing kits (with a tone that made you think he had a financial interest in them) which, whether or not he does, as a Fed President, he's outside of his area of expertise to be commenting on such things. So I'd take his take with a grain of salt. Just sayin'.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 312
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Post by crispin on Apr 23, 2020 14:31:37 GMT -8
We need to be careful with disinformation. This is how the conspiracy theorists get started. To clarify, they weren't " Coronavirus Pandemic Bonds,", they were simply "Pandemic Bonds" much like similar Catastrophe Bonds - where investors are betting that a pandemic or catastrophe won't trigger a payout to the beneficiary countries. Several viruses were listed as most likely to cause a pandemic; including Filovirus, Influenza, Lassa fever, and others. So in no way were these sold as simply Coronavirus bonds. AND ANYWAY the coronavirus class of infections (numbering in the hundreds) have been known for decades and decades - you may remember SARS? It may seem a minor point but this is exactly how we'd end up with, let's call them "persuadable," people claiming that the fix was in at the WHO or other nonsense. Which, needless to say, is the last thing we need right now. On March 18 2020 Apple laid off 2700 full time employees and 1400 contractors. A very small number, all things considered. I imagine that number will take a big jump by earnings next week. I sincerely hope Tim and Luca can use the cash war chest to alleviate some of this. The unemployment number this morning was disheartening to say the least, another 4.4 million bringing it to 26 million in 5 weeks. But numbers are not measured in 5 week increments! Since Jan 1, 2020, the US has lost 28,840,000 workers, and at that time 5,920,000 were already unemployed, which brings the total YTD number to 34,774,000. With 162,000,000 in the labor force today(+/-). Source www.dlt.ri.gov/lmi/laus/us/usadj.htmThat puts us at an unemployment rate of 22% (+/-) as of today. Next Thursday i anticipate 5,000,000 more to be added to the figures, back o the napkin math puts us at 39,774,00 on April 30, 2020, or an unemployment rate of (+/-) 24.5% to close out the month of April. I cannot image a scenario where we do not add an additional 10,000,000 to the unemployment numbers by May 30th 2020, putting us at (+/-) 45,000,000 out of work. That would put us at 28% unemployment, the highest rate ever measured, beating even 1933 which clocked in at 24.9% during the great depression. Even worse is the Saint Louis Fed predicts us to hit 32% before year’s end. One third of the labor force! How and when we come out of the backside of this is multiples of years at best, a decade is not out of the question, so the ‘20’s may very well be the lost decade. Am i the only one who can not see a very serious Black Swan coming down the track, and if not, i sure would like some council on how to manage assets going forward. I am all ears... Actually, I wouldn't spook. I would stay put and hold. Not only that, but I would say we are still in a relatively good buying season. Any stock price under $270, I'd buy. Things could change rapidly for the better in a relatively short period of time. Here's some very obscure indicators... Did you know that about 3 years ago, Coronavirus Pandemic Bonds were issued by The World Bank. Here's how they work: Investors buy them for pretty substantial amounts of money. They get an 11% Annual Return. Pretty good deal right? But... If there is a corona virus pandemic declared and it meets the following criteria: It has to span at least 8 countries. Last for no less than 12 weeks. And have at least 2,500 deaths. If/when this criteria happens, (which it will, if we start counting from mid-March 2020 in the USA, and the Pandemic "officially" continues until mid-June 2020) the investors lose their entire principle and can only keep what they made in interest until the criteria happens. These Bonds are set to expire on June 30, 2020. So this criteria has to transpire by then. Which it is on track to do. So it looks like the investors who purchased these Bonds are SOL (ouch). btw... who even heard the word "coronavirus" 3 years ago? Hmmm... But that's a whole different discussion. My take here is to hold onto your AAPL till at least the Santa Claus rally this year (December, 2020). We should be hitting new highs by then. And I'll think you'll be in great shape. Then I'd decide how you want to slice it up for tax purposes on the cusp of the Calendar year. Also, FWIW, I saw a video recently with the President of the St. Louis Fed. Honestly, my take away on this guy was ummm... "Used Car Salesman wearing a nice suit" This is just my opinion but, he struck me as kind of sleezy, because he was hawking home testing kits (with a tone that made you think he had a financial interest in them) which, whether or not he does, as a Fed President, he's outside of his area of expertise to be commenting on such things. So I'd take his take with a grain of salt. Just sayin'. We need to be careful with disinformation. They weren't "Coronavirus Pandemic Bonds,", they were simply "Pandemic Bonds"
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