Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on Apr 29, 2020 2:42:42 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on Apr 29, 2020 2:47:54 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on Apr 29, 2020 6:21:06 GMT -8
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Apr 29, 2020 7:11:36 GMT -8
I've often liked what Ken Fisher, and now his company, have to say. While I don't use their services, I did talk to them around 8 years ago. I liked their aim to beat the market by a little in a lower risk way, rather than taking big risks by swinging for the fences. It's that whole long-term investing thing, and a different mindset at this stage of my investing life. Anyway, he is into Behavioral Finance, something that has interested me for a while. It's the stepping back and trying to understand why people do what they do. IMO, it explains a lot of the chartist theories, or even something like a 2.5-3.5 day reaction time to a large event. Most of us here have been through enough ups and downs to not worry too much, but reading these was still interesting: www.fisherinvestments.com/en-us/retirement/investing-for-retirement/retirement-advisors/why-financial-literacy-doesnt-guarantee-good-decisionsI'm following Effective Inaction right now, since I'm happy with my risk and borrowing level. At the same time, at some point the market will fully recover, even if that's 6 months to 3 years out. To do that, AAPL would have to rise 13.5%, and the S&P about 15%, to get to their recent ATHs. I apparently have some Acrophobia about doing that now, even with borrowing costs being so low. But, that's more the risk/reward side of things. I'm ready to buy a few more percent if we see a drop, in AAPL or the market. While things won't be all rosy going forward, it is looking a little more clear, and I'd likely guesstimate only a 33% chance of a 10% drop from these levels in the coming few months, and maybe a 20% chance of a 15% drop, which is more what I would be buying over. Luckily there is no problem with just sitting back on my hands. Effective Inaction! Nice term.
|
|
|
Post by hyci004 on Apr 29, 2020 11:07:01 GMT -8
Apple will probably report something similar to Google’s tomorrow. apple.news/Aio7hlBGZRieALc-IVViP4g“Alphabet shares spike after earnings show Q1 revenue hit wasn't as bad as expected”
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on Apr 29, 2020 12:12:55 GMT -8
Apple will probably report something similar to Google’s tomorrow. Since China was shutdown for a longer portion of Q1 than the USA (and the rest of the world) was, does Apple and Google have similar percentages of business in China? I'm not sure if the two companies were similarly affected by the pandemic overall in Q1. My remaining 200/250 call spreads just sold near the close. I'll buy them (or similar) again if the stock drops over the next few weeks (as bad to terrible numbers come in all across the economy).
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Apr 29, 2020 17:30:46 GMT -8
Earnings day tomorrow.
There's rosie predictions (Thanks Rosie, for all the volleyball). And there are dour predictions. Both for now, but more importantly for the months ahead. No one really knows, as we are going into uncharted area, of how the economy will recover, how spending will be spent, what jobs that will support, and what jobs it won't. Some jobs will disappear. Some will be boosted. Will they offset enough to keep things moving?
Here, on the AAPL board, things are stagnant, aside from in the Dungeon. I want us all to think about what we want to see here, and what we don't. Maybe we all just have information overload, combined with the lack of long term information. I know sometimes I am just looking for information, which isn't there yet since it's a long term thing. On a 14+ day cycle (see boosts in new cases, said to be due to Easter celebrations), it's week for week slip.
Anyways, we knew the political cycle would be tough. The virus cycle is tough too, with variables not defined until it plays out more. It will be good if Apple manages to power through, but we will see, while likely having more words than guidance.
Good luck all
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Apr 29, 2020 17:54:10 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by hyci004 on Apr 29, 2020 18:43:03 GMT -8
Apple will probably report something similar to Google’s tomorrow. Since China was shutdown for a longer portion of Q1 than the USA (and the rest of the world) was, does Apple and Google have similar percentages of business in China? I'm not sure if the two companies were similarly affected by the pandemic overall in Q1. My remaining 200/250 call spreads just sold near the close. I'll buy them (or similar) again if the stock drops over the next few weeks (as bad to terrible numbers come in all across the economy). The services revenue should be really good last quarter.
|
|
|
Post by hyci004 on Apr 29, 2020 19:17:32 GMT -8
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on Apr 29, 2020 19:39:52 GMT -8
I think tomorrow will be okay, maybe not spectacular, but okay. But Q1 (Apple FYQ2) is over, what's driving everything now is Q2 and Q3 (Apple FYQ3/Q4) ... what's the forward looking feelings?
Current P/E is a shade under 23. But if we assume 2.40 2.55 for FYQ2, and take down earnings for FYQ3 to 1.95, that's a P/E of 23.3, and if take FYQ4 down to 2.50, that's a P/E just over 25 .... and over 25 is a danger zone. That's when this stock pulls back, sometimes dramatically.
What are y'alls estimates for the next few quarters?
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Apr 29, 2020 21:46:37 GMT -8
I think tomorrow will be okay, maybe not spectacular, but okay. But Q1 (Apple FYQ2) is over, what's driving everything now is Q2 and Q3 (Apple FYQ3/Q4) ... what's the forward looking feelings? Current P/E is a shade under 23. But if we assume 2.40 for FYQ2, and take down earnings for FYQ3 to 2.00, that's a P/E of 23.5, and if take FYQ4 down to 2.60, that's a P/E just over 25 .... and over 25 is a danger zone. That's when this stock pulls back, sometimes dramatically. What are y'alls estimates for the next few quarters? There's supply, and there's demand. On the supply side, China got back running, at least most areas including stand-alone manufacturing sites the size of cities. I don't believe we had any products go to large shipping delay times. On the demand side, we don't really know. On one hand, all Apple stores were shut down for some portion, and it makes sense that in times of uncertainty, especially with income, that people wouldn't buy bigger ticket items (say, over $500, so apps and services are a different thing). OTOH, with many workers that are Apple customers working from home, and kids home, suddenly there's a need for new devices. I know we have a couple older Macs that had been good enough in times that we needed an extra 3 machines, but didn't all have the requirements for all parts of Microsoft Teams. There's a chance that demand was decent, with this added demand offsetting weakness in those holding off on upgrades due to income uncertainty. As for a guess, I'd conservatively go with a step down, but not a cliff. But, I'm not making any short term plays. I wouldn't mind rewriting covered calls on some shares, potentially at Jan '21 again but at 350 instead of 330 for the same ~$10 premium. But Jan '22's could be good too, and there it's more the 400 or up to a 430 strike. That said, I'm not looking at writing those right now, since I don't think we're at an extreme, and don't need to lock in a value. It could be fun, and might even be profitable or at least an insurance card, but I'll pass for now. We'll find out in the next couple days, between the figures and how it's taken.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on Apr 30, 2020 7:46:47 GMT -8
I think tomorrow will be okay, maybe not spectacular, but okay. But Q1 (Apple FYQ2) is over, what's driving everything now is Q2 and Q3 (Apple FYQ3/Q4) ... what's the forward looking feelings? Current P/E is a shade under 23. But if we assume 2.40 for FYQ2, and take down earnings for FYQ3 to 2.00, that's a P/E of 23.5, and if take FYQ4 down to 2.60, that's a P/E just over 25 .... and over 25 is a danger zone. That's when this stock pulls back, sometimes dramatically. What are y'alls estimates for the next few quarters? There's supply, and there's demand. On the supply side, China got back running, at least most areas including stand-alone manufacturing sites the size of cities. I don't believe we had any products go to large shipping delay times. On the demand side, we don't really know. On one hand, all Apple stores were shut down for some portion, and it makes sense that in times of uncertainty, especially with income, that people wouldn't buy bigger ticket items (say, over $500, so apps and services are a different thing). OTOH, with many workers that are Apple customers working from home, and kids home, suddenly there's a need for new devices. I know we have a couple older Macs that had been good enough in times that we needed an extra 3 machines, but didn't all have the requirements for all parts of Microsoft Teams. There's a chance that demand was decent, with this added demand offsetting weakness in those holding off on upgrades due to income uncertainty. As for a guess, I'd conservatively go with a step down, but not a cliff. But, I'm not making any short term plays. I wouldn't mind rewriting covered calls on some shares, potentially at Jan '21 again but at 350 instead of 330 for the same ~$10 premium. But Jan '22's could be good too, and there it's more the 400 or up to a 430 strike. That said, I'm not looking at writing those right now, since I don't think we're at an extreme, and don't need to lock in a value. It could be fun, and might even be profitable or at least an insurance card, but I'll pass for now. We'll find out in the next couple days, between the figures and how it's taken. I suspect most people aren't buying macs or even ipads, they're probably buying cheap tablets and chromebooks for the kids. Those are good enough for what the kids are doing - zoom, classroom, and google docs. We have 5 kids at home now, and they are all using assorted devices. We happen to have a LOT of devices available, so I didn't have to buy any extra. The 3 older ones each have their own macbook, the younger ones use a chrome book and a cheap tablet. And, of course, everyone has an iphone of some sort. I also have a few spare android devices. We have a few ipads available, the high schooler has a school ipad, fire tablets, assorted chromebooks, and a few PC laptops. I have my PC laptop, my macbook pro, my iPad, and my iPhones, and my Androids. But I am quite sure that the new iPhone SE is selling well. That's good and bad - it will increase the number of iPhones sold this Q, it will increase service use, but it will decrease ASP and profit per unit.
|
|