Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on May 6, 2020 1:26:31 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on May 6, 2020 1:30:53 GMT -8
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
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Post by crispin on May 6, 2020 3:33:21 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on May 6, 2020 3:44:33 GMT -8
Thanks, that was a good story.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 6, 2020 6:07:30 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on May 6, 2020 9:45:57 GMT -8
Nice to see AAPL up a bit more than the S&P today. A few days here above $300 would be a good step.
Data is slow to come out, but if some people get back to their jobs, and the virus spread rate stays moderate, things should react positively. I figure data will be in 1-2 weeks.
OTOH, setbacks will be a setback. Or a haircut, down 5-15%, as models get revised.
FWIW, artman1033's Shoutbox message below from just over 5 year ago reminds us of how far AAPL has come. "VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS". Call that 5 years, and 3.25 months, or 5.27 years, AAPL is up 157%, for an annualized rate of 19.66%.
Thanks Apple!
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Post by socal Film Composer on May 6, 2020 10:53:45 GMT -8
I also own SKWS - great news and report from them yesterday go AAPL!!
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on May 6, 2020 11:38:32 GMT -8
I just sold about 6% of my shares at $302.50-something. Raising [more] cash for potential opportunities coming our way.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on May 6, 2020 12:05:30 GMT -8
I just sold about 6% of my shares at $302.50-something. Raising [more] cash for potential opportunities coming our way. I'm think that the Jobs Report is Friday. I'm thinking that it won't be good. It looks like that may have been a smart move after looking at the close.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on May 6, 2020 14:54:31 GMT -8
I just sold about 6% of my shares at $302.50-something. Raising [more] cash for potential opportunities coming our way. I'm think that the Jobs Report is Friday. I'm thinking that it won't be good. It looks like that may have been a smart move after looking at the close. The question is how much negativity has already been baked in. Personally, I'm amazed there are still so many people working. At the same time, there are people trying to work around the corners of the law, mainly just because they need the money. For the ones I know of, a barber and a masseuse, they only work with one person at a time. My feeling is that most of the negativity is already baked in, unless there are major setbacks or some things don't get spinning as well as expected. There will always be ups and downs, especially now, but it's only the major market drop that I would attempt to capture. But, it's tough to time, especially at both ends. As long as money isn't needed in the short term, and you are safe about it, it's a lot easier to utilize a little emergency fund cash or even margin, say from going 5% in cash to 5% in margin. I guess I just see it decently likely that the market won't drop more than 10% from here and instead continue flat-ish or up, and I would hate to miss out on that. Good luck all, no matter what your strategy.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on May 7, 2020 11:55:52 GMT -8
My feeling is that most of the negativity is already baked in That's usually my feeling too! But that is exactly what gets me in trouble ("trouble" as in some loss of capital gains that may have been avoided) every time Apple hits the P/E level it usually does before it has a big downdraft. Now, I may be wrong *this time*, but I think in principle, it is a decent indicator to look out for. So what P/E level usually appears before previous downdrafts?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on May 7, 2020 14:00:44 GMT -8
My feeling is that most of the negativity is already baked in That's usually my feeling too! But that is exactly what gets me in trouble ("trouble" as in some loss of capital gains that may have been avoided) every time Apple hits the P/E level it usually does before it has a big downdraft. Now, I may be wrong *this time*, but I think in principle, it is a decent indicator to look out for. So what P/E level usually appears before previous downdrafts? Yep, that's what got me to sell some shares in the Nov/Dec timeframe, of looking at P/E ranges. I had in my mind something like 20-21 was a high range (I think), so 20+ was time to take a little off the table, or at least think about it. (Looking at my notes, I sold a little at 242.76 on 10-23-19, with a P/E around 20.6, and then a little at 270.94 on 12-11-19 at a P/E around 22.8....all while on a march up to 327.x at a p/e of nearly 26)) But, the P/E range is changing. On 2-12-20, at a close of 327.20, the P/e was 25.98. With Q2 beating '19 Q2 by 9 cents, that means the same ~26 gives a price more than $2 more. Let's just call it $330. But, that would be if the p/e, which some like to think of as investor sentiment (was that you Gregg? Others had/have similar ideas), was as strong as 3 months ago. I wouldn't think most people would expect as high. Anyways, you know what you're doing, and I'm just babbling, so I'll stop...aside from pointing out that the P/E range for AAPL has changed over time, and what were limits before aren't anymore. So, it's not easy, if trying to exactly guess it. This market watch stock graph lists historic P/E's, and I find it very useful to occasionally take a look. Bookmark it. It's one of the few non-weekly stock places that I check once in a while. (it probably doesn't need all of this) bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=True&insttype=Stock&symb=aapl&time=13&startdate=1%2F15%2F2008&enddate=5%2F18%2F2012&freq=2&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=0&maval=9&uf=0&lf=8388608&lf2=0&lf3=0&type=128&style=320&size=4&x=36&y=10&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=8
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