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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 14:54:40 GMT -8
But were they really planning for 65 million iPhone 5s? That's an enormous number. That's what makes me question the credibility. 65 is the number that discredits the story. Someone please tell me this, at what point in the past 3 months has AAPL been priced for 65 million units for the CQ2? The headlines have been, "slower than anticipated sales since the day Apple reported a record launch weekend". We now know that AT&T and VZ have reported good numbers and China was outstanding for their launch weekend. I am liking the idea of Apple moving to a more aggressive refresh cycle. The market is to competitive for Apple to rest on it laurels for a year.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 13, 2013 14:54:52 GMT -8
The percentages in the article just seem so damn dramatic. It just doesn't sound right...very hard to believe.
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Post by mightydog on Jan 13, 2013 15:02:46 GMT -8
diversification of suppliers?
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Post by sponge on Jan 13, 2013 15:07:02 GMT -8
Remember the goal this week is for the option writers from 600-500 to make as much money as possible. I won't be surprised or shocked to see get under $500 by Friday.
My gut tells me we will close just below 530.
So any news that sounds negative will be out there to keep the stock down.
Latest data continues to indicate that retail has been selling since Nov. The little guy that listens to the analysts for advice on this stock and relies WS price targets, is very demoralized right now. They see and read nothing to help them feel hopeful. All they hear is that we will under 500 and they want out before earnings.
The big boys have won this round, but those who buy and hold long term have nothing to worry about. However this time even LEAPS have been burned, so one needs to buy at least 18 months in advance to have a shot.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 13, 2013 15:32:19 GMT -8
Huberty's one of the best for now. Unbelievable..but true Huberty doesn't have a price target as such, but more of a $200 price range. Hard to go wrong when offering that sort of advice.
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Post by wheeles on Jan 13, 2013 16:01:44 GMT -8
Monthly options expiration and a LEAPs month to boot. Many of the stories about AAPL will be placed to move the stock up or down as there's a lot of cash at stake. In this case the intended direction is down. I reckon we will see a concerted attempt to dip below 500, wipe out as many calls as possible, then pop it back up again before the 500 put holders have much of a chance to cash in. Then perhaps we'll see the start of the long-awaited run as analysts start coming out with their guesses. So, instead of wondering about the veracity of a story, think more about the agenda behind it.
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Post by chasmac on Jan 13, 2013 16:06:58 GMT -8
Total BS, wouldn't Apple warn on that kind of news if true?
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Post by rosie on Jan 13, 2013 16:08:21 GMT -8
BigBird is so right
"So, instead of wondering about the veracity of a story, think more about the agenda behind it."
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 16:13:29 GMT -8
So, instead of wondering about the veracity of a story, think more about the agenda behind it. Are you telling me the media is unethical?
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Post by nagrani on Jan 13, 2013 16:18:52 GMT -8
Interesting. I think mr market likes to surprise people. Is anyone expecting a big run up this week?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 13, 2013 16:31:02 GMT -8
The way I read this they are talking about the qtr we are in, not the one we just had See: "....is expected to temporarily reduce output by 70% to 80% compared with the October-December term. ... Sharp's Kameyama No. 1 plant in Mie Prefecture, a dedicated facility for iPhone 5 LCD panels, will slash output in January and February by around 40% from the October-December quarter, when it was near full capacity."
In addition: "Apple had planned to order from the trio enough panels for a total of 65 million units this quarter. But now, the U.S. company is believed to have notified them about roughly halving that figure." So instead of ordering 65 million (not sure why they thought they could sell that much Jan - Mar. Chinese New Year is big but not that big. Actually this is the piece of the story that lacks credibility) they are ordering 32.5million for the Jan - Mar qtr from these three suppliers. This of course is predicated by the story being true at all. Just remember. The Oct - Dec qtr is always the biggest therefore a cutback is expected in the subsequent qtr. How that is spun by the media is based on their appetite for headlines. The word Apple grabs headlines either negative or positive. It's all about clicks on a page as that's how everyone gets paid (thanks to google). Try and keep this in perspective. Just my .02
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 16:54:11 GMT -8
Interesting. I think mr market likes to surprise people. Is anyone expecting a big run up this week? I am not. Down seems to be the easy path, but I have no idea. I felt last week that the floor was 515, until it breaks I feel the same. To me the recent data, especially the CC data, signals a decent quarter. It really does not matter. The direction is already determined. If you look back to July, you can see my paranoia.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 13, 2013 17:25:41 GMT -8
I was thinking a run would start this week, with the CM and Foxconn stories. I will just keep holding on with my 14 and 15 spreads and leaps.
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Post by cambrose on Jan 13, 2013 17:51:53 GMT -8
Interesting. I think mr market likes to surprise people. Is anyone expecting a big run up this week? If you refer to the graphs from page 1, from Friday's close of $520, you can see that the option writers would profit an additional 900M by pushing the price down to 500 and give back about 1B by allowing it to rise to 550. Considering how much value is sitting in those Jan 13 LEAPS, if big money had the ability to manipulate the price, there is certainly the incentive to do it. For me, assuming big money has the ability to manipulate the price, it would certainly explain the odd action lately. I would love to see a CM announcement this week just to throw a big 'ol wrench into the whole process.
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Post by alice on Jan 13, 2013 18:01:09 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 13, 2013 18:19:13 GMT -8
I think everyone should look at the massive, ex-LEAPS open interest expiring this Friday before making stock movement predictions.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 13, 2013 18:24:58 GMT -8
I think everyone should look at the massive, ex-LEAPS open interest expiring this Friday before making stock movement predictions. Travis Lewis and Seeking Alpha amongst others are pointing that out as well.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 13, 2013 18:32:42 GMT -8
Travis just retweeted this - (gotta love the person's Stocktwits' name - lol) - they are referencing that Market Watch article we have been discussing:
"@steelcahones: $AAPL WSJ: "Apple notified these suppliers of the order cut last month." So this news is coming out now. On OPEX week. ok."
Such a rigged market at so many levels.
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Post by terps530 on Jan 13, 2013 18:36:22 GMT -8
Anyone with wsj access can grab the text for this article. Travis mentioning it as typical that it would come out this week... Nothing loading for me but I dunno if I need a subscription. stks.co/oIfgEdit: didn't realize it was the same marketwatch article from above, nvm.
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Post by prazan on Jan 13, 2013 18:40:34 GMT -8
The first question I asked myself on reading the Market Watch story about LCD cuts was, "Why are Apple's suppliers so eager to spill their numbers, including total production on order and percentage cuts of those orders?" Apple is pretty secretive about such information. This report leads the close reader to assume that the intrepid reporter got each of the three manufacturers to spill the number of their orders and the percentage they've been cut back. I can buy one leak, but leaks of such precision in each of the three suppliers? It fails the stink test.
Let's hold our noses and assume that the reporter managed this impossible task, and look at the numbers. 65 million is a huge number of phones. If they ordered 65 million for Apple's Q2, then it's reasonable to assume that they ordered 65 million or more for Q1. If they sold 50 million (and I don't think they did, as you'd need to add 4 and 4s units to this, bringing the total to 60 million units), then that would leave 15 million phones in the channel. The report cites that orders have been cut approximately in half, so let's say orders for 35 million phones remain. That yields 50 million phones for Q2, which I think is a very good number, given that it doesn't even include the 4 and 4s, which should comprise about 20% of unit volume. So it looks like they're planning on selling lots of phones. You can get more conservative with the numbers and still project that Apple plans to sell 50 million phones for the quarter, which I think is closer to the mark.
You don't have to assume a change in form factors for these numbers to work out to 50 million phones next quarter. I welcome other opinions on this, by the way. One thing my father told me that has always stuck with me, "Figures can lie and liars can figure."
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Post by renee on Jan 13, 2013 18:56:55 GMT -8
Interesting. I think mr market likes to surprise people. Is anyone expecting a big run up this week? If you refer to the graphs from page 1, you can see that the option writers would profit roughly 1B by pushing the price down to 500 and lose about 900M by allowing it to rise to 550. Considering how much value is sitting in those Jan 13 LEAPS, if big money had the ability to manipulate the price, there is certainly the incentive to do it. For me, assuming big money has the ability to manipulate the price, it would certainly explain the odd action lately. I would love to see a CM announcement this week just to throw a big 'ol wrench into the whole process. I'm a little confused by the max pain graphs. This one says max pain is at $550. maximum-pain.com/max-pain.aspx
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 13, 2013 19:06:25 GMT -8
Such a rigged market at so many levels. It's also a regulated market, one which perversely punishes those leaking truthful information, while giving those who purvey false information an advantage. A great argument against making insider trading illegal. To borrow a gun rights phrase, "when the truth is outlawed, only liars will have the information."
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 19:07:05 GMT -8
Prazan, that was my thinking about the 65 million for Q1, I don't believe it. The WSJ and marketwatch are both owned by the Dow Jones company so it should not be a surprise that they a pushing the same story, during OE week of course.
I feel certain that Samsung has been "leaking" production numbers because they do not fear Apple withholding business. (for now). I do not think Sharp, who has found a white knight in Apple, would jeopardize its relationship. These articles are intended to move the stock price, we shall see if it trumps the recent news.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 19:18:16 GMT -8
It's also a regulated market, one which perversely punishes those leaking truthful information, while giving those who purvey false information an advantage. A great argument against making insider trading illegal. JD, I can't even imagine how bad the market would get if it were to operate withou regulations. The problem is that just like guns, there are rules in place that are skirted. Also, criminals do not obey laws. DUH! BTW, I thought insider trading was illegal? (Martha Stewart ring a bell) The media is free to run amok without fear of retaliation. Cramer made a video a few years ago about running stories to move a stock. If it were up to me these people would fear unethical behavior.
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Post by cambrose on Jan 13, 2013 19:21:54 GMT -8
We're looking at it from slightly different perspectives. I'm looking at the net intrinsic value retained by option writers not the cash paid to option holders. I don't know if it's a valid analysis. Just wanted to see what it represented.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 19:30:34 GMT -8
I see no value in that PAIN chart. It recognizes very high strikes that have no value and very little open interest. Travis compresses the OI data to provide a better picture. There seems to be a pretty large support at the 500 strike on Travis's site. I do like Travis, seems like a decent guy, but his probability range is useless, 450/630 is laughable. If someone could predict within $10 for each Friday with regularity, then I would be impressed. What has happened to AAPL is unreasonable and unexplainable. It is what it is.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2013 19:45:45 GMT -8
All these 'headlines' are well and good (and I believe them), but China is destined to become Apple's largest smartphone market WITHOUT China Mobile.
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Post by mbeauch on Jan 13, 2013 19:48:01 GMT -8
All these 'headlines' are well and good (and I believe them), but China is destined to become Apple's largest smartphone market WITHOUT China Mobile. CM just makes it faster.
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Post by macwire on Jan 13, 2013 19:48:22 GMT -8
Viva Messi! Barca! Barca! Barca! (It's the weekend, so I can fly my colors) Cannot understand why we wont strengthen the squad. makes. no. sense. kind of like aapl's stock price. oh look! wsj say suppliers order cut. yay! more death monday.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 13, 2013 19:53:26 GMT -8
This is what I get for being wrapped up in a bridal convention the whole weekend. I didn't see this when first posted, but Saylor is absolutely spot on.
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