Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on May 13, 2020 1:47:59 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on May 13, 2020 1:53:49 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on May 13, 2020 2:12:13 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on May 13, 2020 2:18:01 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by silkstone on May 13, 2020 3:39:10 GMT -8
I finally caved by selling 25% of my Apple stock on Monday. Its not that I’ve lost faith in Apple but it has been my only holding for quite a while and I wanted to increase my cash just in case.
As everyone knows, the US economy is based on confidence. But what we have right now is a great fear of getting the virus or dying. This is preventing people from getting out as much as the economy needs. I think this is going to persist until we have a vaccine.
I’m still glad to be holding 75% of my account in Apple stock as I believe the company is now consolidating its position as the most valuable company in the world by providing fantastic products and services that people need and love.
Funny but it almost feels like a confession after holding for so long (13 yrs) but I will be ready to jump back in with both feet as soon as we have a viable coronavirus vaccine.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 13, 2020 4:00:43 GMT -8
I finally caved by selling 25% of my Apple stock on Monday. Its not that I’ve lost faith in Apple but it has been my only holding for quite a while and I wanted to increase my cash just in case. As everyone knows, the US economy is based on confidence. But what we have right now is a great fear of getting the virus or dying. This is preventing people from getting out as much as the economy needs. I’m still glad to be holding 75% of my account in Apple stock as I believe the company is now consolidating its position as the most valuable company in the world by providing fantastic products and services that people need and love. I caved a while back, but for under 10%. I am seriously considering selling more to increase my “just in case” cash stockpile as well. I believe that the pressure to open up is going to lead to a second and worse wave of the virus in the US, which in turn is going to damage the economy even more, due to the further destruction of confidence. I am not a believer in the narrative that opening up now, before prudent conditions are in place, is going to lead to improved economic performance. I believe in the opposite - that we are headed for more economic hardship due to these steps. This view was expressed in yesterday’s hearings, and reinforced my belief in this scenario. I really hope to be wrong, since the various lockdowns are seriously messing with my freedom and quality of life, but the realist in me says otherwise.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on May 13, 2020 5:35:19 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on May 13, 2020 6:03:02 GMT -8
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on May 13, 2020 8:16:42 GMT -8
On Friday, I decided to sell a few shares (small amount, less than 4% of my position) at $310. As I was placing the order, on a whim I decided to instead do something else. Instead of selling the stock, I sold 310 calls expiring that day. Sure enough, they were assigned and I got a bit more than $310 per share. What reminded me of that technique is that I periodically sell puts at prices that I am willing to buy shares, most of the time those puts expire worthless, but when they don't, and I get assigned, I am glad to buy those shares at a slight discount. This is the first time I traded options solely on the day of expiry, usually the options I buy/sell are long-term spreads a year to two and a half years in the future.
The only hassle was that I couldn't identify which shares online, I had to call them and tell them after the fact. That's a deficiency in my brokerage system and I've already submitted a comment about that deficiency.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on May 13, 2020 11:19:43 GMT -8
Uggh!
Sometimes it's interesting to look at your own feeling over the short term, by the day or week, towards how AAPL is doing. It was only 4 days ago that AAPL was at this same level, at around $305.
At $315, with intraday runs to $317 and $319, while I was amazed that AAPL had returned to that level so quickly, I also was thinking bullishly or at least neutral, of AAPL sticking around at the $315-320 for a while, or even continuing on up to set new ATHs.
Now, just a couple days later, fundamentals haven't really changed. And yet it will be good if AAPL manages to consolidate above $300 for a week or two, and I don't see the high levels for a bit.
Truthfully that's more where I think AAPL should be right now, while the data slowly progresses. But, especially during the last 3 months with many big changes and an outside event running the show, it has been interesting to see how quickly my feeling on AAPL's short term future can change.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
|
Post by Dave on May 13, 2020 12:15:13 GMT -8
When the trend is going up, we believe that it will always be going up. And when the trend is going down, we believe that it will always be going down. For me it is a hard habit to break. Life happens.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on May 13, 2020 12:20:07 GMT -8
At $315, with intraday runs to $317 and $319, while I was amazed that AAPL had returned to that level so quickly, I also was thinking bullishly or at least neutral, of AAPL sticking around at the $315-320 for a while, or even continuing on up to set new ATHs. Now, just a couple days later, fundamentals haven't really changed. And yet it will be good if AAPL manages to consolidate above $300 for a week or two, and I don't see the high levels for a bit. The better than expected earnings report from Tim provided a nice boost, but the larger picture still holds sway when folks look ahead, especially as the White House follies lurch forward. Nonetheless, Apple and AAPL will perform well relative to the rest. We just have to maintain perspective and keep our hopeful aspirations within reason. If the next quarter, always a pause, is reasonable, and if Tim can pull off a reasonably good Fall release, then we will all be happy. Personally, I would not have bet on seeing 300 before then, so just maintaining until the Fall would be major victory IMHO.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on May 13, 2020 12:46:52 GMT -8
Ditto !
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on May 13, 2020 13:29:14 GMT -8
I never expected to see $300 so soon again either. I am starting to think I missed a major driver in the price recovery. Which is the scarcity of where to put cash to work. Entire sectors are suddenly on fire.
Airlines Travel Gig economy Accommodation Huge swaths of manufacturing such as Boeing Autos - my sales guy is not even showing up for work Oil and Gas ... and so on.
So if you must deploy cash, where do you put it? The universe of sound investments has suddenly shrunk. Apple might be attracting new investors who have few better alternatives. Just a hunch that I don’t know how to quantify.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on May 13, 2020 13:29:32 GMT -8
At $315, with intraday runs to $317 and $319, while I was amazed that AAPL had returned to that level so quickly, I also was thinking bullishly or at least neutral, of AAPL sticking around at the $315-320 for a while, or even continuing on up to set new ATHs. Now, just a couple days later, fundamentals haven't really changed. And yet it will be good if AAPL manages to consolidate above $300 for a week or two, and I don't see the high levels for a bit. The better than expected earnings report from Tim provided a nice boost, but the larger picture still holds sway when folks look ahead, especially as the White House follies lurch forward. Nonetheless, Apple and AAPL will perform well relative to the rest. We just have to maintain perspective and keep our hopeful aspirations within reason. If the next quarter, always a pause, is reasonable, and if Tim can pull off a reasonably good Fall release, then we will all be happy. Personally, I would not have bet on seeing 300 before then, so just maintaining until the Fall would be major victory IMHO. Yep, I don't doubt the middle term (or longer) trajectory, and I too felt AAPL got ahead of itself. Still, sometimes it's interesting to step back and see the psychological affects that things have. And in these more volatile months, one can quickly see the response going both directions. It's a fun science experiment, like looking at the Bitcoin bubble 16 months ago, that was much easier to see with no skin in the game. Maybe it's just me, but I like trying to understand the drive behind the "madness of crowds", especially if it can help me through some of these crazy times with a bit more sanity, and ideally capital too.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on May 13, 2020 14:20:43 GMT -8
Many members are apparently feeling that AAPL may continue on this latest tear...but I’m not feeling it. For the first time in years, I changed the dividend auto-reinvest for our IRA’s to “No”, so we’ll hold the cash for right now. In the past, I never felt inclined to consider that it would make much difference and/or didn't have a strong feeling the stock would be going in either direction, so opted for the auto-reinvest to make things “easier”.
Given the present situation this country and the world is in, I’m not inclined to feel that we’re out of the woods and will soon get back to normal. In my guesstimate, I arbitrarily used $270, $310 and $350 as the low, present and possible high and figure we’ll get 11% fewer shares if the stock continues to climb and receive 15% more shares if the price pulls back to $270 or so. All things considered, I’m fine with either outcome.
Cheers to the AAPL Longs!!
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
|
Post by mark on May 14, 2020 6:29:59 GMT -8
I never expected to see $300 so soon again either. I am starting to think I missed a major driver in the price recovery. Which is the scarcity of where to put cash to work. Entire sectors are suddenly on fire. Airlines Travel Gig economy Accommodation Huge swaths of manufacturing such as Boeing Autos - my sales guy is not even showing up for work Oil and Gas ... and so on. So if you must deploy cash, where do you put it? The universe of sound investments has suddenly shrunk. Apple might be attracting new investors who have few better alternatives. Just a hunch that I don’t know how to quantify. Add to this list - Put options (on anything) My gut is still telling me that this market still has a very strong possibility of a large downdraft as economic reality sets in. BUT in my search for "protection" (puts on S&P500, or on ETFs, or on large stocks, or on anything) are CRAZY expensive.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on May 14, 2020 14:19:28 GMT -8
Add to this list - Put options (on anything) My gut is still telling me that this market still has a very strong possibility of a large downdraft as economic reality sets in. BUT in my search for "protection" (puts on S&P500, or on ETFs, or on large stocks, or on anything) are CRAZY expensive. In the past, when looking at calls or puts on SPY, or on something like XOM, I found they were a whole different animal than ones on AAPL. It might be that people were betting on those underlying investments having an annualized rate of say 8-12%, whereas with AAPL there are enough people shooting higher (15-30%) that the bell curves are different. For SPY, that would mean that calls or puts 15% out of the money would be cheap. Whether that is the case now or not, I don't know. But I remember being amazed at how different they were, after being familiar (10+ years) with pricing of options on AAPL.
|
|