Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on May 28, 2020 2:38:58 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on May 28, 2020 2:45:47 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 28, 2020 6:43:40 GMT -8
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Post by hyci004 on May 28, 2020 8:10:20 GMT -8
apple.news/AoNI8C0QeSgeEDvMXd2zydg“J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee lifted his price target on Apple Inc.'s stock (AAPL) to $365 from $350 on Thursday, writing of his optimism for the lower-cost iPhone SE's potential in emerging markets.”
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 28, 2020 9:24:06 GMT -8
apple.news/AoNI8C0QeSgeEDvMXd2zydg“J.P. Morgan analyst Samik Chatterjee lifted his price target on Apple Inc.'s stock (AAPL) to $365 from $350 on Thursday, writing of his optimism for the lower-cost iPhone SE's potential in emerging markets.” Who would have guessed a couple of months ago that such targets would seem perfectly reasonable, if not cautious, by now (other than here at AFB)? My $365 target for the PED April 1, 2021 prediction contest looks pretty conservative at this point, especially if Tim does his usual masterful job with the 5G rollout.
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Post by Lstream on May 28, 2020 9:56:13 GMT -8
Early, but encouraging article on using wearables for early detection of disease symptoms, including coronavirus. Notice the ring device mentioned. Maybe Apple should think about buying that company. This lines up with my thinking posted a few days back, that wearables will expand beyond just the Watch.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on May 28, 2020 11:11:03 GMT -8
What are people's guesses going forward, as to average annualized share appreciation in the coming years?
I believe back at the peak early this year, AAPL had amazingly averaged 20% over some timeframe. I think it was 5 years, but it might have been 3 or 10.
In thinking about longer term plans, I consider writing covered calls. The current range that I look at the most is at a 20% annualized rate, plus a 10% bonus. So, 1 year out that would be 30%. 2 years out, that works out to 24% annualized. Jan '22, 1 2/3 years out, is 45% total, or $467 from the current $322.
I feel I would be pretty happy with these levels, since I more realistically expect AAPL to average closer to 15-18% annualized returns.
What do you think? What do you use, as your personal expectation, and if different then the level that you would sell at?
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Post by Lstream on May 28, 2020 12:53:02 GMT -8
What are people's guesses going forward, as to average annualized share appreciation in the coming years? I believe back at the peak early this year, AAPL had amazingly averaged 20% over some timeframe. I think it was 5 years, but it might have been 3 or 10. In thinking about longer term plans, I consider writing covered calls. The current range that I look at the most is at a 20% annualized rate, plus a 10% bonus. So, 1 year out that would be 30%. 2 years out, that works out to 24% annualized. Jan '22, 1 2/3 years out, is 45% total, or $467 from the current $322. I feel I would be pretty happy with these levels, since I more realistically expect AAPL to average closer to 15-18% annualized returns. What do you think? What do you use, as your personal expectation, and if different then the level that you would sell at? My perspective is likely of no use, since I don't do options and therefore have no imposed time frame on when I need to act. With that said, my strategy has nothing to do with annualized rates of return. For a few reasons: 1. A great company and stock can be expensive for long periods of time. Meaning that the recent past has annualized returns beyond any sensible target. 2. It can do the same thing on the downside. Being crazy cheap. 3. Rates of return can seem entirely irrational at times. How does one make investment decisions, when the underlying asset behaves irrationally? 4. I believe that over the long term, that MOST of the time, the returns will make rational sense. But in one and two year time frames, not so much. So my rules on when to sell are based upon the following. All assuming that I don't need the money, either now or in the near term. Simply put, I look at the underlying story, and decide if I believe in it any more. Factors that can cause me to stop believing include: 1. Loss of faith in management 2. Blindness to potential and current disruptions to the core business. RIM is a great example of this one. They couldn't see what the iPhone was going to do to them. 3. Weakening competitive position. Combined with an inability to respond to threats. 4. Loss of customer loyalty 5. Poor product pipeline. Enough to lose faith in continued growth. 6. Short sightedness in technology platform strategy. Unwillingness to aggressively pursue strategic R&D 7. Stupid acquisitions. This often means that management no longer believes in the organic growth prospects of the business. And they need to compensate by buying something. 8. Market saturation, including an inability to to see how to combat it with new products or services. There are likely more. I think the Apple story holds up pretty well against these. I have not stopped believing in the underlying story yet.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 28, 2020 14:32:26 GMT -8
What are people's guesses going forward, as to average annualized share appreciation in the coming years? I believe back at the peak early this year, AAPL had amazingly averaged 20% over some timeframe. I think it was 5 years, but it might have been 3 or 10. In thinking about longer term plans, I consider writing covered calls. The current range that I look at the most is at a 20% annualized rate, plus a 10% bonus. So, 1 year out that would be 30%. 2 years out, that works out to 24% annualized. Jan '22, 1 2/3 years out, is 45% total, or $467 from the current $322. I feel I would be pretty happy with these levels, since I more realistically expect AAPL to average closer to 15-18% annualized returns. What do you think? What do you use, as your personal expectation, and if different then the level that you would sell at? As a dedicated buy and hold AAPL (actually, just “hold” at this point) couple living on Social Security and mandatory withdrawals from one of our professionally managed IRAs (the other having been deferred by the recent change in the age at which IRA withdrawals are mandatory), our preference would be for continued meaningful increases in the divided. Our hope and expectation is that our AAPL shares will provide a substantial estate for our sons, so any increase in share price will benefit them most directly.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on May 28, 2020 15:11:58 GMT -8
What are people's guesses going forward, as to average annualized share appreciation in the coming years? I believe back at the peak early this year, AAPL had amazingly averaged 20% over some timeframe. I think it was 5 years, but it might have been 3 or 10. In thinking about longer term plans, I consider writing covered calls. The current range that I look at the most is at a 20% annualized rate, plus a 10% bonus. So, 1 year out that would be 30%. 2 years out, that works out to 24% annualized. Jan '22, 1 2/3 years out, is 45% total, or $467 from the current $322. I feel I would be pretty happy with these levels, since I more realistically expect AAPL to average closer to 15-18% annualized returns. What do you think? What do you use, as your personal expectation, and if different then the level that you would sell at? As a dedicated buy and hold AAPL (actually, just “hold” at this point) couple living on Social Security and mandatory withdrawals from one of our professionally managed IRAs (the other having been deferred by the recent change in the age at which IRA withdrawals are mandatory), our preference would be for continued meaningful increases in the divided. Our hope and expectation is that our AAPL shares will provide a substantial estate for our sons, so any increase in share price will benefit them most directly. I get that, as I do Lstreams list of items to watch for. I've held AAPL shares for 22 years now, though the exact shares (first purchase) were sold and rebought the same day with the short side of a spread a few years back. I believe those first few shares were at a split adjusted 0.56 price, giving something like a 33% annualized return over 22 years. If only I had bought more But, as I've said before, I borrow a little bit, percentage wise, on margin. The bigger issue is having so many eggs in one basket. I have no problem with it in general, but there's not much that would change for me if things doubled from here. Likewise, there's not much that would change if things were cut in half. But, if we are happy where we are, and moving over a small percentage of shares to something like the S&P would let my wife sleep better at night, while still holding a lot of AAPL, then why wouldn't I at least consider it? Likewise, if I felt AAPL was near fair value today, but it went up 50% tomorrow on no real news, while other things stayed flat (no marketwide inflation), what would I do? What about if I'm expecting 16% annualized returns, but get 25% annualized returns? There's some point where it makes sense to get out of a little, some point that it makes sense to get out of a decent amount, and so point that it makes sense to sell most or even all. And whether that's a change in valuation, or a change in the underlying company and it's values, it is something to think about. For me, I'm considering taking a little off the table at certain points. Apple may in fact be different, but there are plenty of people out there that didn't divest a little...just as there are plenty of people that sold off entirely much too early. Like many things, I'm going for the middle ground.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on May 28, 2020 15:15:26 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on May 28, 2020 15:33:28 GMT -8
As a dedicated buy and hold AAPL (actually, just “hold” at this point) couple living on Social Security and mandatory withdrawals from one of our professionally managed IRAs (the other having been deferred by the recent change in the age at which IRA withdrawals are mandatory), our preference would be for continued meaningful increases in the divided. Our hope and expectation is that our AAPL shares will provide a substantial estate for our sons, so any increase in share price will benefit them most directly. I get that, as I do Lstreams list of items to watch for. I've held AAPL shares for 22 years now, though the exact shares were sold and rebought the same day with the short side of a spread a few years back. I believe those first few shares were at a split adjusted 0.56 price, giving something like a 33% annualized return over 22 years. If only I had bought more But, as I've said before, I borrow a little bit, percentage wise, on margin. The bigger issue is having so many eggs in one basket. I have no problem with it in general, but there's not much that would change for me if things doubled from here. Likewise, there's not much that would change if things were cut in half. But, if we are happy where we are, and moving over a small percentage of shares to something like the S&P would let my wife sleep better at night, while still holding a lot of AAPL, then why wouldn't I at least consider it? Likewise, if I felt AAPL was near fair value today, but it went up 50% tomorrow on no real news, while other things stayed flat (no marketwide inflation), what would I do? What about if I'm expecting 16% annualized returns, but get 25% annualized returns? There's some point where it makes sense to get out of a little, some point that it makes sense to get out of a decent amount, and so point that it makes sense to sell most or even all. And whether that's a change in valuation, or a change in the underlying company and it's values, it is something to think about. For me, I'm considering taking a little off the table at certain points. Apple may in fact be different, but there are plenty of people out there that didn't divest a little...just as there are plenty of people that sold off entirely much too early. Like many things, I'm going for the middle ground. I guess if AAPL started going nuts by doing things like jumping 50% and getting way ahead of itself in terms of valuation, then I may start to consider cashing out. I too have an “eggs in one basket” kind of problem, due to the tremendous returns since 2002 when I first bought. I admit to being conditioned to not really considering such a scenario, because “expensive” AAPL has meant valuations equivalent to the S&P. Seemingly forever. I should also mention that I did sell about 8% of my AAPL shares when the virus hit. Partly for defensive reasons, as I had no idea how bad things were going to get. And partly for your diversification reasons. Without corona, I would not have done that, so it is kind of a special circumstance.
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