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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 4:24:44 GMT -8
Will roll April 690/715s to July, maybe October when I see what prices I can get this AM. Then start buying low-500 range BCS is mass quantity expiring in April-July.
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Post by rob_london on Jan 14, 2013 4:31:00 GMT -8
Why would they be changing the new design so soon (you don't get lower GMs doing that). I totally agree. I do not believe that Apple are about to introduce a larger form factor, especially after extolling the virtues of the 4" iPhone, with its one handed operation. Remember the 'Thumbs' advert when the iPhone 5 was launched. Ive's philosophy: 'form follows function'.
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Post by renee on Jan 14, 2013 4:31:02 GMT -8
Will roll April 690/715s to July, maybe October when I see what prices I can get this AM. Then start buying low-500 range BCS is mass quantity expiring in April-July. I also have April positions. I will wait until next Tues/Wed (after expiration/pre earnings) to roll. Opinions anyone?
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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 4:34:15 GMT -8
Will roll April 690/715s to July, maybe October when I see what prices I can get this AM. Then start buying low-500 range BCS is mass quantity expiring in April-July. I also have April positions. I will wait until next Tues/Wed (after expiration/pre earnings) to roll. Opinions anyone? My thoughts are that we're going to have a great quarter and Q2 guidance. Split your move in half: roll half today and half after earnings. I'm going to roll the Aprils today, and wait until after earnings to buy more spreads. I think iPad would approve of my scaling in.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 4:55:00 GMT -8
The only one who knows what "...half of what the company was expecting" means is the company. I can only dream but they could/should issue a release saying this is false. False as in they never said it and/or false that orders were cut by half of what they were expecting. Actual numbers would not have to be addressed.
"The WSJ report, which cited unnamed people familiar with the matter, said that orders for iPhone 5 screens for the January-March quarter are about half of what the company was expecting. Orders for other types of components have also been reduced, the WSJ article said."
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 5:11:46 GMT -8
For those who think the markets are NOT rigged - take a look at this. If you for one minute don't think that MMs and hedge funds don't take advantage of this with AAPL - you are just effing nuts: www.liveleak.com/view?i=b1b_1237128864
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 5:25:25 GMT -8
Broke my own rule and listened to CNBC. Henry Blodget was actually not bad (from the rhetoric aspect). Actually defended the company and said a number of times the valuation is very compelling. When pushed on the question if Apple was still overvalued he even said under no measurement is Apple overvalued. Brought up the PE of 11.x a few times and the giant cash hoard. As far as the rumors, basically said this is what analysts have been saying for the past month.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 14, 2013 5:28:43 GMT -8
I also have April positions. I will wait until next Tues/Wed (after expiration/pre earnings) to roll. Opinions anyone? My thoughts are that we're going to have a great quarter and Q2 guidance. Split your move in half: roll half today and half after earnings. I'm going to roll the Aprils today, and wait until after earnings to buy more spreads. I think iPad would approve of my scaling in. Gold star! However you decide to do whatever you'd like to do, I'm a huge proponent of scaling in and out. IMHO, the most applicable-to-trading lesson from buy-and-hold investing: dollar-cost averaging. Me, I'll buy some replacement spreads here and dump some existing spreads on the first oversold bounce.
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Post by Apple II+ on Jan 14, 2013 5:32:42 GMT -8
Broke my own rule and listened to CNBC. Henry Blodget was actually not bad (from the rhetoric aspect). Actually defended the company and said a number of times the valuation is very compelling. When pushed on the question if Apple was still overvalued he even said under no measurement is Apple overvalued. Brought up the PE of 11.x a few times and the giant cash hoard. As far as the rumors, basically said this is what analysts have been saying for the past month. Except he also said that it was quite clear from the WSJ article that there is a demand issue for the iPhone. Not so. It's most likely the same pattern we've seen before of locking up more than enough supply in advance and then ordering less. The article presents only an interpretation of this reduction, but it's the same old story we hear over and over again. Why would it be a demand problem now, when it hasn't been before? At the very least, a change in the pattern indicating a real demand problem would need more evidence than the same repeated pattern of negative speculation based on supplier reports.
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Post by lance on Jan 14, 2013 5:35:12 GMT -8
This stock has turned into an embarrassment. I mean like everyone here I think the company is a huge success and great company. But I couldn't care less if the company is great if the stock is worst in the market. I am hear to make money through investing in what I thought was safe investment not lose 1000's a day. I understand people saying management doesn't care about short term stock price, but this now approaching flat growth for the stock over an entire year, while massively growing the company. Clearly, this needs to be addressed at the earnings or shareholder meeting. The stock is basically the worst large cap investment on the stock market over the past few months. It should be one of safest. Apple needs a clearer explanation on their guidance because it is allowing the stock to be pushed around because of its conservatism and its ambuiguity. Face it the the crap guidance has destroyed the P/E and Market Cap of the company the last few years preventing AAPL from growing with the pace of the company. It allows wall street to push around the stock and say what they want for 3 months till a single quality number is released. Safe to say AAPL wont have any run up into earnings.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 5:39:16 GMT -8
Take a look at the video clip I posted up above in the thread - THIS IS WHAT IS GOING ON - hedge funds are hurting from last year's redemptions and are trying to lock in early gains in the year. The path of least resistance is down and they manipulate in PM. You have to be deaf, dumb, and blind not to see this. The regulators will do nothing because technically it is legal. Watch the video - it explains it clearly.
PS The only way they stop manipulating a company is when the company starts to do unexpected things like buy backs or pre-announcing, etc. Then it becomes too unpredictable for them to toss around...in the meantime AAPL is MORE THAN predictable right now.
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Post by roni on Jan 14, 2013 5:49:24 GMT -8
Good morning
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Post by jcaron on Jan 14, 2013 5:50:34 GMT -8
I am amazed how quickly the news has gone from the sense that Apple's profits and iPhone 5 sales may be in jeopardy due to supply constraints to profits and iPhone 5 sales are now in jeopardy due to demand issues. Flavor of the month is appears.
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Post by prazan on Jan 14, 2013 5:52:08 GMT -8
Forgive me for repeating my analysis from the weekend thread, but it bears repeating. Apple came into supply-demand balance in December. Production issues were largely resolved so they're now making more phones than they can immediately sell. These phones are now filling the channel. Assume Apple sold 45 million 5 units this past quarter, while making 55 million units. This leaves 10 million phones in the channel to sell in Q2, plus the 35 million phones produced this quarter. That's 45 million 5 units. Add to both these figures more than 5 million 4 and 4s units and it yields 50 million plus phones for both quarters.
We see these "supply cut" stories every quarter, and they're essentially worthless predictors. Of course Apple over-ordered for Q2. What if the CM deal had been inked with production to begin immediately? Apple would have been able to meet that demand. If anything, the numbers might mean that no CM deal will go into production this quarter.
In general, the market doesn't calculate channel fill into the equation, and financial reporters are usually far too dumb to understand the nuances. By the way, financial reporters are the lowest of the breed, in my experience. I've yet to meet one whose intellect could light a closet.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 5:57:50 GMT -8
This stock has turned into an embarrassment. I mean like everyone here I think the company is a huge success and great company. But I couldn't care less if the company is great if the stock is worst in the market. I am hear to make money through investing in what I thought was safe investment not lose 1000's a day. I understand people saying management doesn't care about short term stock price, but this now approaching flat growth for the stock over an entire year, while massively growing the company. Clearly, this needs to be addressed at the earnings or shareholder meeting. The stock is basically the worst large cap investment on the stock market over the past few months. It should be one of safest. Apple needs a clearer explanation on their guidance because it is allowing the stock to be pushed around because of its conservatism and its ambuiguity. Face it the the crap guidance has destroyed the P/E and Market Cap of the company the last few years preventing AAPL from growing with the pace of the company. It allows wall street to push around the stock and say what they want for 3 months till a single quality number is released. Safe to say AAPL wont have any run up into earnings. Share your sentiment Lance.
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 6:04:37 GMT -8
Forgive me for repeating my analysis from the weekend thread, but it bears repeating. Apple came into supply-demand balance in December. Production issues were largely resolved so they're now making more phones than they can immediately sell. These phones are now filling the channel. Assume Apple sold 45 million 5 units this past quarter, while making 55 million units. This leaves 10 million phones in the channel to sell in Q2, plus the 35 million phones produced this quarter. That's 45 million 5 units. Add to both these figures more than 5 million 4 and 4s units and it yields 50 million plus phones for both quarters. We see these "supply cut" stories every quarter, and they're essentially worthless predictors. Of course Apple over-ordered for Q2. What if the CM deal had been inked with production to begin immediately? Apple would have been able to meet that demand. If anything, the numbers might mean that no CM deal will go into production this quarter. In general, the market doesn't calculate channel fill into the equation, and financial reporters are usually far too dumb to understand the nuances. By the way, financial reporters are the lowest of the breed, in my experience. I've yet to meet one whose intellect could light a closet. Yes I read the earlier post and that's what I believe also. More the reason for the company to come out with something. How about a simple press release: "Don't bet against us". :-). That should do it for now.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 14, 2013 6:07:17 GMT -8
Share your sentiment Lance. Or Not! At least save some words and just say "Please fix everything Apple".
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 6:10:07 GMT -8
When you are a public company you have a fiduciary responsibility to your shareholders. I don't give a crap about SJ's attitude in the past or what TC thinks he should be doing - but you need to respond to your shareholders in SOME way. If not, then shareholders should sell because management doesn't give a crap about you. I am struggling to stay long but am losing faith. You can create good products and still have good shareholder relations - it's NOT that difficult!
And by the way - that's why they (AAPL management) gets paid the big bucks! So earn it!
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Post by leonb on Jan 14, 2013 6:12:14 GMT -8
As much as I'd love TC to say something, because I'm getting hit hard here, it wouldn't be a good move. Earnings are in 9 days and should speak for themselves. If TC breaks his silence now he will set a dangerous precedent, and his silence in future will be devastating - so he'd be reduced to running commentary.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Jan 14, 2013 6:14:32 GMT -8
As much as I'd love TC to say something, because I'm getting hit hard here, it wouldn't be a good move. Earnings are in 9 days and should speak for themselves. If TC breaks his silence now he will set a dangerous precedent, and his silence in future will be devastating - so he'd be reduced to running commentary. I completely agree. To say anything 9 days before an earning report is a bad move.
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Post by qualitywte on Jan 14, 2013 6:15:45 GMT -8
When you are a public company you have a fiduciary responsibility to your shareholders. I don't give a crap about SJ's attitude in the past or what TC thinks he should be doing - but you need to respond to your shareholders in SOME way. If not, then shareholders should sell because management doesn't give a crap about you. I am struggling to stay long but am losing faith. You can create good products and still have good shareholder relations - it's NOT that difficult! And by the way - that's why they (AAPL management) gets paid the big bucks! So earn it! I agree, especially the losing faith part and all. But I would not want them to respond to these type of news stories because then they would be responding daily. Just think, if they fire off a response today to this story, these same reporters will do this even more in order to get Apple to respond....JMHO
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Post by lance on Jan 14, 2013 6:16:13 GMT -8
I am not saying fix everyting I am saying get rid of the guidance all together or provide an accurate number. Thats it. The guidance is terrible end of story. It doesn't provide any benefit. It is so conservative a 15% beat is considered low. Please provide a single reason why the guidance is helping the stock.
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Post by Rupert on Jan 14, 2013 6:17:17 GMT -8
Resistance/Support Monday 01/14/2013
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 6:17:56 GMT -8
Also notice many of the reports no longer contain the 65M number therefore most reports no say that Apple is cutting all orders by more than half. Front page on most finance pages, greater and greater speculation on the blogs. It just doesn't get much better than this. Last years Euro crises looks like a champagne event in retrospect.
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Post by phoebear611 on Jan 14, 2013 6:20:28 GMT -8
It doesn't necessarily mean that TC has to publicly state something himself - I have seen it done where he could reach out to a few "trusted" analysts and enter a into a dialogue that gives them enough information that they can feel comfortable going public that disputes a few things from their "sources" -- it is all legal and done. It provides analysts with enough ammo to make a comment and to look great. They then feel special that TC reached out to them and TC gets the CORRECT info out without coming out himself. THIS IS HOW STUFF GETS DONE ON WS PEOPLE!
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Post by tuffett on Jan 14, 2013 6:21:25 GMT -8
As much as I'd love TC to say something, because I'm getting hit hard here, it wouldn't be a good move. Earnings are in 9 days and should speak for themselves. If TC breaks his silence now he will set a dangerous precedent, and his silence in future will be devastating - so he'd be reduced to running commentary. A dangerous precedent of quashing worthless rumours and preventing the stock from tanking a few days before the biggest in the history of corporate America? Uh...yes please.
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Post by renee on Jan 14, 2013 6:23:19 GMT -8
As much as I'd love TC to say something, because I'm getting hit hard here, it wouldn't be a good move. Earnings are in 9 days and should speak for themselves. If TC breaks his silence now he will set a dangerous precedent, and his silence in future will be devastating - so he'd be reduced to running commentary. I completely agree. To say anything 9 days before an earning report is a bad move. I am imagining this or did TC kind of preannounce ipad sales last quarter on an investor conference call to give a heads up that they would be lower than expected?
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Post by fas550 on Jan 14, 2013 6:24:33 GMT -8
I am not saying fix everyting I am saying get rid of the guidance all together or provide an accurate number. Thats it. The guidance is terrible end of story. It doesn't provide any benefit. It is so conservative a 15% beat is considered low. Please provide a single reason why the guidance is helping the stock. IMHO the company has matured, market cap has expanded/changed, supply chain is better, retail continues to get better, products are better but the investor/analyst relations department is stuck in time: In the time Apple was closer to that of a startup than now, one of the largest companies in the world.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 6:28:43 GMT -8
I am not saying fix everyting I am saying get rid of the guidance all together or provide an accurate number. Thats it. The guidance is terrible end of story. It doesn't provide any benefit. It is so conservative a 15% beat is considered low. Please provide a single reason why the guidance is helping the stock. I wouldn't mind if they ditch guidance.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 14, 2013 6:35:13 GMT -8
Flush. 3M shares in first 5 minutes.
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