Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jul 27, 2020 2:48:32 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Jul 27, 2020 3:00:04 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 27, 2020 6:54:15 GMT -8
Thursday: United Parcel Services (UPS), Cigna (CI), Yum! Brands (YUM), Grubhub (GRUB), Eli Lilly (LLY), Comcast (CMCSA), ConocoPhillips (COP), Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Sirius XM Holdings (SIRI), Newmont (NEM), Procter & Gamble (PG), Kraft Heinz (KHC), Mastercard (MA), Molson Coors Beverage Co. (TAP), PG&E (PCG), Moody’s Corp (MCO), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), Kellogg (K) before market open; Ford (F), Apple (AAPL), Mohawk Industries (MHK), Electronic Arts (EA), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Expedia (EXPE) FWIW, Facebook has been moved to Thursday too, so Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, and Facebook. Even without Microsoft, Netflix, or Tesla, that's quite an earnings day for tech. finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-delays-second-quarter-results-134330471.htmlWhile I knew real estate was hot here in our little mountain town, I didn't realize it was doing well in most places. An article with 8 opinions from Money ( money.com/home-price-forecasts/ ) pointed out that it is much wider, with the general ideas of being at home more, low inventory, and low interest rates pushing the market, along with one similar to Apple that people already looking to buy a house generally have their finances more in order (saving up a down payment, etc) and often have white collar jobs that are less affected by Covid related unemployment or furloughs. OTOH, durable goods orders climbed 7.3%, with auto sales more than offsetting Boeing negativity. www.marketwatch.com/story/durable-goods-orders-climb-73-in-june-as-automaker-surge-offsets-boeing-weakness-2020-07-27 Cars cost a lot less than houses, but it might be a similar set of conditions, along with some people having a little more money if certain vacations are postponed. Trends from those bigger purchases are similar to Apple products. It's not that all is great at all levels, but that it depends on the market you are in and how your customers are doing and feeling.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jul 27, 2020 8:16:30 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 27, 2020 8:50:36 GMT -8
At some point it's a "just something to complain about" issue, though it's interesting that this is a place where Apple put functionality over aesthetics, vs I really wish Apple made more machines that could have their memory, HD, and battery more easily replaced, both as a benefit to the user but also to the environment via having a longer functional life. On the notch, if it's framed as an addition, a way to get the battery indicator, clock, wifi, and wireless network info out of the main area, it makes a lot of sense. Maybe that's like seeing the current share price as a ~15% gain over the Feb peak, vs seeing it 6% down from the $400 level. Glass not completely domed over the top? In retrospect, it seems like Apple should have done a better job of framing the additional space, steering the conversation. But having my iPhone 11 for 10 months or so, I can't think of a time that it has bugged me that there is a notch. Really, if I had to nit pick, it's almost more of an issue that without the likes of a physical home button, it's a little harder to know which side is up, which is important when using face id to open it up and even having the iPhone realize it should turn on. Pick it up upside down, and it stays off. Add in that there's not a lower security level for mask or goggle use, and there's a couple things that bug me more than the notch, especially as the notch has been a non-issue for me.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,101
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Post by Dave on Jul 27, 2020 8:59:44 GMT -8
Yes 4aapl the low mortgage interest rates are driving demand. Just a couple of weeks ago I did a refinancing for 2.9% and I’ve heard today that the rates have dropped even more. In my area new homes are going up as quickly as they can be built with the biggest problem being available land. It is truly a sales-market.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 27, 2020 9:21:05 GMT -8
Yes 4aapl the low mortgage interest rates are driving demand. Just a couple of weeks ago I did a refinancing for 2.9% and I’ve heard today that the rates have dropped even more. In my area new homes are going up as quickly as they can be built with the biggest problem being available land. It is truly a sales-market. That gets me wondering where the demand is coming from. Are apartments taking a huge hit somewhere? Or is this 2nd home sales that people plan to use as their primary, either on a trial basis or with plans to fix up before selling, or rent out? A demand uptick based on moving out of population dense areas makes sense, and certainly there can be strength everywhere but more strength in certain areas, but this article didn't talk about that. Our area is strange, with a lock down on building on new land within the Tahoe basin. There's still little projects and knockdowns, but overall there is not growth in the total number of units. With the supply staying flat, within the basin (Truckee is a different beast, as are Reno and Carson City), things are more driven from the flushness of people within driving distance (mainly SF Bay Area, but also Sacramento and even the LA region) buying vacation houses, which are getting much more use these days as people take local vacations, or work remotely. Anyways, it makes sense there's a big uptick here. But it's interesting that it seems to be happening everywhere, as the low interest rates and looking to upgrade would push transactions, but it doesn't seem like supply should be taking a hit everywhere unless there is a change (fewer people selling their homes to move into assisted living facilities? Overseas investors? Local investors?)
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jul 27, 2020 10:06:28 GMT -8
Yes 4aapl the low mortgage interest rates are driving demand. Just a couple of weeks ago I did a refinancing for 2.9% and I’ve heard today that the rates have dropped even more. In my area new homes are going up as quickly as they can be built with the biggest problem being available land. It is truly a sales-market. That gets me wondering where the demand is coming from. Are apartments taking a huge hit somewhere? Or is this 2nd home sales that people plan to use as their primary, either on a trial basis or with plans to fix up before selling, or rent out? Perhaps it’s just a bit of “strike while the iron is hot.” For us good schools was the prime consideration for our long term residence. We bought our first house in a decent location, but mediocre schools, while the boys were young. Then as they got past the early grades and our salaries increased a bit, we looked in earnest at the communities with highly rated school systems and bought the house where we still live. Perhaps the low interest rates are driving something similar now, where the cost of getting good schools (or a better commute, or whatever is important for the buyers) is suddenly feasible.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jul 27, 2020 11:10:39 GMT -8
That gets me wondering where the demand is coming from. Are apartments taking a huge hit somewhere? Or is this 2nd home sales that people plan to use as their primary, either on a trial basis or with plans to fix up before selling, or rent out? Perhaps it’s just a bit of “strike while the iron is hot.” For us good schools was the prime consideration for our long term residence. We bought our first house in a decent location, but mediocre schools, while the boys were young. Then as they got past the early grades and our salaries increased a bit, we looked in earnest at the communities with highly rated school systems and bought the house where we still live. Perhaps the low interest rates are driving something similar now, where the cost of getting good schools (or a better commute, or whatever is important for the buyers) is suddenly feasible. I like that idea, and think it always is in play, but my feeling is that people would sell the first house, thus contributing to the supply. OTOH, if a large enough group is buying a second home and moving to it, while keeping the 1st around (that is closer to work and friends/family) just in case, you'd expect the uptick to be in non-urban areas. While that wouldn't contribute to the supply in urban areas, it also wouldn't contribute to the demand. From that article we don't know if there is a much higher uptick in suburban or non-urban areas. Maybe all areas are seeing a +3% due to low interest rates, while "get away from it all" areas are seeing +5% or +8%. But you wouldn't expect supply to shrink in all areas, unless increased home ownership per capita was occurring, with people buying additional homes, or people moving out of apartments or shared dwelling situations into single dwelling residences. Nice to see AAPL up a little, even as we have a few more days in this ripe time for unsubstantiated rumors. Lots of uncertainties on multiple fronts, but as the next few days tick away we'll have a few more answers. Personally, that's both with Apple earnings, and on education as the school district decides what to do while the teachers union wants 9 weeks of distance learning, while there's a glimmer of hope at least in CA and NV of new cases stepping down after the multi-week boost up starting around the 4th of July. There's lots of wall of worry items, but nearly all of them are on the days/weeks/months scale, and not much on my mind is more than a year out.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jul 27, 2020 11:37:14 GMT -8
Perhaps it’s just a bit of “strike while the iron is hot.” For us good schools was the prime consideration for our long term residence. We bought our first house in a decent location, but mediocre schools, while the boys were young. Then as they got past the early grades and our salaries increased a bit, we looked in earnest at the communities with highly rated school systems and bought the house where we still live. Perhaps the low interest rates are driving something similar now, where the cost of getting good schools (or a better commute, or whatever is important for the buyers) is suddenly feasible. I like that idea, and think it always is in play, but my feeling is that people would sell the first house, thus contributing to the supply. While it was our second house, I did not mean to imply, and can see no reason why it could not be a first home ownership.
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