Largest weekly gain since...well, I haven’t found a bigger one yet , and considering the basis was already near a previous ATH, I doubt there is one; percentage gain also the largest ever, although they have only been tracked here for the last few years. If anyone wants to spend the time, I wouldn’t mind being corrected.
Who wants to guess what the first post-split price will be? With a whole month to go, could it possibly be $125?
LoveMyiPad used to call shorts "rocket fuel." Of course this can't happen until the stock starts to go up. So it's a combination of factors that cause the cascade. Of course there were shorts set up before earnings. Only question is how broad and deep.
I think schadenfreude over someone losing money is bad Karma, so I won't laugh at them, even if they deserve it.
I'll just say, "y'all come back now, you hear?"
And congrats to Grandpa PED.
"Our favorite holding period is forever." -- Warren Buffett
Off to the beach for dinner and outside games, but....
Anytime the stock moves much, near the money options that expire soon move a lot.
Let's say the stock is at 425. Maybe I have some shares that I want to sell, or don't mind selling. I decide to try my luck at juicing a few more bucks from them, so maybe I sell a 430 that expires this Friday. And maybe I get around 1% for it, so $4.
If the stock closes below 430, I keep the $4, and keep my stock. If it closes above 430, I still keep the $4, but also sell the stock at 430. I get a net $434 for it (strike plus premium). So if the stock closes at $431, I'm actually ahead.
Instead, if the stock makes a big move, like $40, that's a bit different. That puts the stock at $465, or 35 above the strike. That made someone 35 from $4, so a 775% profit.
That doesn't happen too much, and is different than a short squeeze. But that's just a primer.
(edit) The other side of the trade looks bad in comparison to if they had held the stock, but they made $9 more than they would have if they just sold at $425, so a little better than 2% extra, in a week. If someone made 2% some weeks, and 1% the other weeks, they wouldn't be doing too bad on an annualized basis, as long as they didn't sell out at a much lower price than they bought the underlying.
On a marketwatch article about AAPL's split, and what people should know about using the spit to invest, I wrote:
"A split shouldn't matter. But, companies tend to do it when there is positive momentum. AAPL is still underpriced compared to many/all of it's competitors when looking at various metrics, the easiest being P/E. There's still room to run, but no one knows how much the stock will gain. That said, I bought my first shares 22 years ago, and this setup (strong sales due to people upgrading their computers, strong pipeline with extra incentives to upgrade on iPhones, strong user base that values Apple's better products giving higher user satisfaction, willingness to pay for higher quality, and stickiness of user base, strong apps user base, strong and growing user base on wearables (watch and AirPods) and in other subscriptions) is one of the best. Steve and Tim have both said at times that the pipeline looks the best yet. But to me this looks the best ever."
With that mindset, while I don't see warp speed to $150 post split, $125 seems plausible before the iPhone announcement if certain things happen, which would beget $150 within a year with a 20% annualized return. To me that's the yellow brick road path, but it's not as outlandish as I thought just a week ago.
"Dream a little dream for me". But watch out for the frothy top, as it's hard to keep a level head when in the midst of it.
We have the choice to build this board up, or tear it down. Make the right choice, or don't post here.
To All: Please remember to keep non-Apple SPECIFIC political stuff out of the daily thread. Post it over in the Dungeon, if you really want to discuss it with others on the AAPL Finance Board.
For those new to the board, I've been long AAPL since the early 90's. Since then, Apple has split three times for a total of 28. that would mean my cost-basis AAPL price is 11,900. Does anyone think that AAPL would be $11,900 per share had there been no splits? If you go back to 1987, you add another 2X, so the real price of AAPL would be 23,800 since its IPO without splits. Does anyone believe this could have happened absent splits?
Some might point to BRK, but Berkshire Hathaway is an investment fund that is an aggregate of other companies and investments. And of course Buffett offered the smaller B class shares at like 1/1000 the price of the A's.
Any article I see about the split that doesn't include the word "psychology" is suspect. Big stock numbers scare investors. And even the financial media would be saying "OMG AAPL is a 5 figure stock, overpriced!" even though its PE is at the low end of its sector - assuming Apple isn't its own sector. Finally at parity with Google's PE though, which is long overdue. IMO Google is in existential trouble for reasons I won't go into on an Apple board. But let's just say Apple has a lot to do with it.
"Our favorite holding period is forever." -- Warren Buffett
Post by Luckychoices on Aug 2, 2020 14:45:30 GMT -5
My wife and I virtually never vary from just holding AAPL because I've proven to myself that we do better when I don't try to anticipate what the market or AAPL is going to do. In other words, I'm not a risk taker...other than being only invested in AAPL, of course. But how is that risky? 😊
Any way, back in May, I decided to *not* have our May AAPL dividends auto-reinvested because I was 90% certain that the ongoing pandemic would cause the market in general to do poorly until it was eliminated. Well, I was obviously mistaken...badly mistaken.
I did an update to the thread, "Sometimes it helps to have all your eggs in one basket" for any who are interested in how mistaken I was* and the consequences of my serious misjudgment.
Cheers to the AAPL Longs!! Be careful out there!! 😂
My take on the John Maynard Keynes quote: "I can hold AAPL longer than the market can remain irrational...or Trump can remain president." --Luckychoices
"There is no point in being confident & having a small position." --George Soros
"While AAPL could keep climbing from here, I'd more expect a modest pullback, sometime". --4aapl
Should be interesting to see what happens with AAPL this week, and indeed for the whole month. On the one hand there there will be lots of excitement about the 3Q numbers, but on the other hand a desire to hold the price down in order to buy the split shares more cheaply, betting on a run after the split. From what I read, there is no typical pattern. So what are AFBers expecting and/or hoping for? We are not expecting to buy or sell shares, so as long as the price goes up, we don’t care when.
Last Edit: Aug 2, 2020 21:35:25 GMT -5 by chinacat
mercel: It's been a long strange trip - good to see you're still around (and in AAPL -my assumption).
May 10, 2019 12:48:32 GMT -5
Zeke: Long time no see. Nice to see familiar names still here.
Mar 25, 2019 14:42:52 GMT -5
sponge: Regarding the future of VR, I think it will be huge. I was a gamer when I was in college. But as an adult I lost interest. Last fall I flew up to visit my son at college and check out his new Vive set up. After playing with it for the weekend, I was
Apr 29, 2018 15:25:17 GMT -5
galleybob: thanks for your answer. I will copy and send to her
Nov 7, 2017 15:32:18 GMT -5
rickag: So since Jan 28th 2015 AAPL is up from 117.27 to 157.21
Aug 21, 2017 20:09:43 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 29.21 AAPL = $117.27 AFTER EARNINGS
Jan 28, 2015 14:54:46 GMT -5
artman1033: VXAPL = 44.94 AAPL = $110.39 BEFORE EARNINGS
Jan 27, 2015 11:12:53 GMT -5