Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Aug 31, 2020 2:23:24 GMT -8
Good morning. It’s Monday and everyone is starting the day with more shares in their accounts. Also the last day of the month as well as the quarter. Pre-market is green at +$1.71 +1.37%. How will this day unfold? What to Expect in the Markets This Week
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Aug 31, 2020 2:29:34 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Aug 31, 2020 2:33:27 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on Aug 31, 2020 3:40:11 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 31, 2020 4:25:23 GMT -8
4? I am still multiplying by 7!
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 31, 2020 4:54:39 GMT -8
numbers to watch
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH! $515.14 divided by 4= $128.78
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH CLOSE! $506.09 divided by 4= $126.52
as always, please check my math. I shall return after the close
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Post by Lstream on Aug 31, 2020 5:01:46 GMT -8
You guys who had a windfall on the weekend are the opposite of me. My portfolio this morning is showing an unhappy story. It is going to take “a few days” for my split shares to show up. Sub $140 pour moi. Easy come. Easy go😊
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Aug 31, 2020 5:48:17 GMT -8
The app I use to track AAPL gave me a shock showing that the price was down -$375.68 and a -74.43%. But the current price was correct. It keeps the heart pumping.
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on Aug 31, 2020 5:57:13 GMT -8
Doesn't it feel great to see all those new shares in your account, even though the value is the same?. I got curious to see if the stock split had any effect on the average movement per day. Logically, if the movement was linked to the available liquidity, the movement should drop in accordance with the split. If we were seeing average moves of 4 points per day, we should see moves of 1 point per day after the split. On the other hand, if the actual size of the move accelerates itself by generating momentum, I would expect to see larger dollar swings, perhaps because more investors are watching the movement. Who knows?
Anyway, I looked at the daily price changes before and after the June 9, 2014, 7-1 split. It was surprising. Pre split, the mean was .0987, the standard deviation was 1.6287. and the 95% confidence interval ranged from .005 to .2025 Let me try to line these up for you....................................................................................................Post split the mean was .2586, the standard deviation was 3.8165. and the 95% confidence interval ranged from .0696 to .4477
While this seemed counter-intuitive at first, I think it shows the effect of the astonishing climb from 115 to 500. I would interpret this as the influence of the share price on daily change is overwhelmed by other factors such as fundamentals so....nothing to see here, move along.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 31, 2020 6:09:52 GMT -8
It's tough to wait. We'll probably get a new iPhone for my wife. Her 8+ is only 2.5 years old, but it gets dropped excessively, has gone through 2 screens, and is starting to have wireless problems. Her old 5S didn't get dropped anywhere close to this amount, so whether it's the cases we've used, or the larger form factor, I don't know. But, it's also getting to be time for my son to have an iPhone, and any spare older device will get use. Apple watch. We've talked about it for a while. Like when we bought our first iPhones, it's a trade-off of cost and the "will we use it and is it worth it" thoughts. But, even at "only" $127, AAPL has treated us well. MacBook something. We may be short a laptop for distance/pod learning. Today is the first complete day, so we'll see. It seems like we have devices everywhere for our family of 5, but the older iMac and Mac Mini aren't portable for daily toting, and while the kids enjoy the iPad it might not be right either. The i7 16 gig 512 gig SSD MacBookAir that Costco just had for $1199 ($250 off Apple's online store price) was very tempting to add to the collection, but my wife said she didn't really need an upgrade. Technology is tough, since it nearly always gets faster and cheaper even in the relatively short timeframe, with the exception being when an outside force temporarily modifies the equation (ram shortages, HD shortages, China trade, fires/tsunamis/earthquakes). If you need to add something to the mix, while waiting for Apple silicon in your main system, the 27" iMac is a very nice system, and the standard iPad works very well for single-window operations.
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Post by dc930 on Aug 31, 2020 7:56:47 GMT -8
Dipping my toes back into covered calls based on the split enthusiasm. Sold a few of this week's $130's for $2.72 each.
Cheers to the longs!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Aug 31, 2020 8:21:24 GMT -8
You can already see the psychology. "AAPL is only up like $4, no big deal." $16 is a big deal. Apple is cheap at $130! Not cheap at $520. If this doesn't make sense, I'll never be able to convince you. $200 or bust!
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 31, 2020 8:36:36 GMT -8
money.usnews.com/investing/stock-market-news/articles/most-shorted-stocksMOST SHORTED STOCKS from August 5th! Apple has been a top market performer in a difficult year. The stock is up almost 50% year to date, and Apple's market cap has grown to $1.88 trillion. Investors are optimistic about Apple's 5G iPhone launch later this year, and Apple's impressive cash flow and strong balance sheet provide safety in an uncertain economy. Apple bulls are hoping that the 5G iPhone triggers a wave of upgrades among users. The company has been shifting its business model from device sales toward more high-margin, recurring services revenue, but it recently reported impressive 31% iPad sales growth year over year in the second quarter. Apple also announced a 4-for-1 stock split. Apple short sellers may be betting that the 5G iPhone launch will mark a top for Apple stock, or they may simply be using Apple as a hedge against long positions in other tech stocks. Whatever the reason, Apple logged $3.05 billion in short selling in July, more than any other U.S.-listed stock, Dusaniwsky says.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Aug 31, 2020 8:56:59 GMT -8
You can already see the psychology. "AAPL is only up like $4, no big deal." $16 is a big deal. Apple is cheap at $130! Not cheap at $520. If this doesn't make sense, I'll never be able to convince you. $200 or bust! It's the underlying theory that the market should be logical and rational that always gets me. It swings both ways. The overreaction to the downside really hurts. But this shoot up is really nice. I'm having a hard time wrapping my head around it at the moment, and figuring out what will stick vs what is temporary. Those Sept '22 $1000's for $25 are now Sept '22 $250's for $9. It seems wrong to get so much for those. ~40% annualized rates, with ~4% annualized premium plus dividend. With big numbers, it adds up. On the other side of the range, with volatility up put prices are up too. Without going crazy, one could write a few OTM puts, whether that's a month out (120's, for a net pre-split price of 470, seems fair), or 2 years out (90's for $10, for a net pre-split price of 320). So many crazy things out there, so far out in either direction. You'd think this stock was TSLA or NFLX. Good job JD. Way to remember that there is a lot of psychology still out there in the market. Those MOMO people might be on to something, in the short term.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Aug 31, 2020 9:11:52 GMT -8
And just like that, evercore’s $130 price target from yesterday Is underwater.
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Post by duckpins on Aug 31, 2020 10:47:55 GMT -8
Sept. is the worst month for stocks. Will the market continue its clime to the Dow Feb. highs? And then what? Apple is trading like Jobs is coming back. The journey from 1 trillion market cap to 2 was short compared to the journey to that landmark. If Bezos and Google make it to 2 trillion, MFST, others? That is asking a lot. But lots of money is coming out of oil looking for tech stocks. I think for this once in a lifetime rally to go on we will need company.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Aug 31, 2020 11:21:17 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Aug 31, 2020 12:05:12 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$131.00All Time Highest TODAY intraday 219,719,585
shares traded today +$2.215 TRILLION
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
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Post by Dave on Aug 31, 2020 12:14:44 GMT -8
In the past any rumors of a delayed iPhone launch would send everyone running for the exits. But not today. Could they be saving this story for tomorrow?
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Post by aaplcrazie on Aug 31, 2020 13:14:59 GMT -8
In the past any rumors of a delayed iPhone launch would send everyone running for the exits. But not today. Could they be saving this story for tomorrow? If I'am remembering correctly I think it was brought up in The recent Call during Earnings.
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Post by Lstream on Aug 31, 2020 13:19:17 GMT -8
In the past any rumors of a delayed iPhone launch would send everyone running for the exits. But not today. Could they be saving this story for tomorrow? If I'am remembering correctly I think it was brought up in The recent Call during Earnings. Yes it was mentioned by the CFO.
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