Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,140
|
Post by Dave on Sept 14, 2020 2:14:25 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,140
|
Post by Dave on Sept 14, 2020 2:22:47 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,140
|
Post by Dave on Sept 14, 2020 2:34:32 GMT -8
Jean-Louis Gassée: Apple Glasses, Apple GogglesBe sure to check out all of the comments: Imagine what it would be like to have a 360 degree view of everything that is around you, very similar to the displays many car manufacturers now provide. You could then say that you have eyes in the back of your head.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,664
|
Post by 4aapl on Sept 14, 2020 6:32:12 GMT -8
Imagine what it would be like to have a 360 degree view of everything that is around you, very similar to the displays many car manufacturers now provide. You could then say that you have eyes in the back of your head. Yesterday when FaceTiming with my parents, they could now see what the kitten was doing behind them either from us yelling out or them looking at the little screen of themselves. Sometimes it's interesting to watch older movies and see what technology was in them. I just watched Wall Street out in '87, with Gekko having a big but portable cell phone and a 2" portable TV, and a whole bunch of ugly green lined computers in the office. But the less focused one was First Kid, from 1996, including going to a VR gaming station at the mall. VR/AR has been available for a long time. The trick is making it good enough, finding a niche where it really shines, and for certain markets making it cool. It's one thing to use it for flight simulation, controlling a hazmat or explosives robot, or doing remote surgery. It's another to pop one on the head of urban dwellers and have them interact (mostly) as normal. And just as the scare of cell phone cameras, it's also a deal with society as a whole. We already carry around supercomputers with us. Some even have them listen all the time, waiting for a "Hey Siri". Many use them as near-instant super encyclopedias, whether that's directions, finding things, finding answers, identifying things, or getting current events (like stock prices). ARing it, if done right, just takes out the middle steps of having to pull out the iPhone or asking. Like the iPhone's lock screen suggestion of checking the AAPL price, it will take some learning, like learning to not put up that shortcut on the weekend. IMO the trick is finding an industry or use where it really helps out (like a movie's showing a heads up display of an astronaut with data about the surroundings like oxygen levels) and build from there, while learning what is needed and what is too distracting. The coolness factor matters a lot less for specific industries where it is useful, plus cost is much less of an issue if it's value added, like putting surround-cameras on a new $500k (or more?) cement truck, versus making it a $1-2k option on a mid level new car.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Sept 14, 2020 6:34:03 GMT -8
Jean-Louis Gassée: Apple Glasses, Apple GogglesBe sure to check out all of the comments: Imagine what it would be like to have a 360 degree view of everything that is around you, very similar to the displays many car manufacturers now provide. You could then say that you have eyes in the back of your head. I will be seriously disappointed if Apple goes the goggles route as its only entry into this market. That would be a niche device incapable of moving the needle financially. Use cases would be severely restricted. Further, Gregg has no idea what he is talking about, and talk of destroying the gaming industry because of this device is nonsense. A goggles class of device is much easier to implement, and thinking that others could not pull it off is uninformed wishful thinking. This is what you get when an ex-cop thinks he has a clue about tech and wearables especially. I think an AR device that is almost indistinguishable from today’s glasses is the true mass market opportunity. For this class of device, I believe that Apple with all of its capabilities can truly set itself apart. That class of product is really hard. Goggles not so much. Mass market use cases is what is holding that class of device back. Not an inability to build it. I posted a while back on what I think an AR device needs to deliver to be a true success. I hope that is what Apple is working on.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,140
|
Post by Dave on Sept 14, 2020 8:38:13 GMT -8
I posted a while back on what I think an AR device needs to deliver to be a true success. I hope that is what Apple is working on. I enjoyed reading your check list for an AR device. When thinking about the liability issues alone could be enough to prevent the device from coming to market. Think of the person falling down a flight of steps or stepping off the curb into the path of a city bus. Also, where would you hide the battery that would needed to power this device for length of time. It’s going to be interesting to see what Apple presents tomorrow.
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Sept 14, 2020 8:51:58 GMT -8
I posted a while back on what I think an AR device needs to deliver to be a true success. I hope that is what Apple is working on. I enjoyed reading your check list for an AR device. When thinking about the liability issues alone could be enough to prevent the device from coming to market. Think of the person falling down a flight of steps or stepping off the curb into the path of a city bus. Also, where would you hide the battery that would needed to power this device for length of time. It’s going to be interesting to see what Apple presents tomorrow. The battery would very likely go in the arms. I think that is one place where a compromise would be acceptable, as they are not that visible to others who are looking at you. Battery life is why miniaturization and power efficiency is so important. Which is an area that Apple has defensible IP and know-how. Apple Silicon is huge here. Liability for sure needs to be considered. I believe that the device probably needs to know when you are walking and maybe even know when you are in dangerous spots subject to distraction, and perhaps limit functionality in those conditions. Kind of like how CarPlay restricts functionality for safety reasons. On the other hand, I think you could make a case that distracted people staring down at their phones or watches is dangerous as well in certain circumstances. Probably more dangerous than a pair of glasses with HUD-like notifications that are understandable at a glance, without distracting you from your surroundings. This kind of stuff and other factors make this product HARD. And something that Apple can implement better than anyone else. But for sure, getting it right is a bigger challenge than anything else they have ever done. At least in my opinion. EDIT - I expect they won't say anything about this product tomorrow.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,187
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2020 9:22:46 GMT -8
Yeah I doubt Gregg has ever played a video game, other than Pong in 1977. Being an AAPL investor can cause one to be subject to a type of confirmation or reporting bias. "I was right about the stock, therefore I know tech." I could be accused of the same, but I believe AR & VR are the future of gaming. I'm a former gamer, but having seen a bunch of those social rejects in my local Microcenter last weekend, I have no desire to become one again (being out of college and law school, my procrastination needs are less these days). Way too much of a time sink for zero payoff. However, I am thinking of buying a Valve headset to try out Half-Life: Alyx just to see what all the hype is about, and if this is in fact the future.
Gaming, Netflix, junk food, social media, and unfortunately for some, politics, have replaced religion as the opiate of the masses. Invest accordingly.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Sept 14, 2020 10:54:24 GMT -8
“Those who predict the future we call futurists. Those who know when the future will happen we call billionaires.”
They used to be called visionaries.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,187
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 14, 2020 11:32:41 GMT -8
“Those who predict the future we call futurists. Those who know when the future will happen we call billionaires.” They used to be called visionaries. Hopefully I'm right, because I'd really like to be a billionaire. I mean I think we can all agree that at least I'd be less obnoxious than Marc Cuban.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,664
|
Post by 4aapl on Sept 14, 2020 11:53:02 GMT -8
“Those who predict the future we call futurists. Those who know when the future will happen we call billionaires.” They used to be called visionaries. Hopefully I'm right, because I'd really like to be a billionaire. I mean I think we can all agree that at least I'd be less obnoxious than Marc Cuban. LOL. There's a part of the estimated tax form instructions just for you. The 3rd estimated payment is due tomorrow, and we're sending something over (as a single check!) since we sold a few shares. But it was interesting to see the last paragraph on the 4th page, that if needing to send more than $100M over in check form, to split it up into multiple checks to keep each check under $100M. www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040es.pdfThe problems one can have.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Sept 14, 2020 12:45:00 GMT -8
Hopefully I'm right, because I'd really like to be a billionaire. I mean I think we can all agree that at least I'd be less obnoxious than Marc Cuban. LOL. There's a part of the estimated tax form instructions just for you. The 3rd estimated payment is due tomorrow, and we're sending something over (as a single check!) since we sold a few shares. But it was interesting to see the last paragraph on the 4th page, that if needing to send more than $100M over in check form, to split it up into multiple checks to keep each check under $100M. www.irs.gov/pub/irs-pdf/f1040es.pdfThe problems one can have. Thanks for posting that section of the estimated tax form instruction. I'd not noticed it previously and now I can't stop looking at it. It's good to know we can avoid this inconvenient limitation by using electronic payments. 😂
|
|