Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 13:05:20 GMT -8
Now I know why non-technicals types can get ticked off by technicals types.
Because technicals types might say "in retrospect, today's pullback was expected". Even though the "I was just surprised by it as the rest of you before taking a closer look at the chart and various if/then scenarios" part is silent.
I wonder, is this equivalent to technicals types being ticked off by EW statements? ;D
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Post by mace on Dec 6, 2013 13:56:55 GMT -8
Because technicals types might say "in retrospect, today's pullback was expected". Even though the "I was just surprised by it as the rest of you before taking a closer look at the chart and various if/then scenarios" part is silent. Did you draw a line joining $457.29 and $510.76? Yes, now you see.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 14:25:40 GMT -8
No, just looking at the breakout so far. Am I missing something?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2013 18:33:52 GMT -8
Mace's line makes a good upper trendline. See green line in this chart -- I tweaked the points (as labeled) a bit to get the most connection points... Mav, concur with you on Fibs 101 for easy composure reference. Chart looks strong to me, so now we let retrace % confirm what our gut's saying. AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2013 18:34:16 GMT -8
Now I know why non-technicals types can get ticked off by technicals types. Because technicals types might say "in retrospect, today's pullback was expected". Even though the "I was just surprised by it as the rest of you before taking a closer look at the chart and various if/then scenarios" part is silent. I wonder, is this equivalent to technicals types being ticked off by EW statements? ;D ROFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 6, 2013 18:36:26 GMT -8
So there's a lower BB hook on the daily chart - that means consolidation/watch for retrace in an _uptrend_? I assume the lower BB hook _does_ have positives even in an uptrend because of the improving "price support" it implies as the lower BB catches up to the current price, right? For whatever reason that's always a tough one for me to puzzle out. the _upper_ BB hook in an uptrend is pretty easy for me to figure out as a near-term caution sign. Yes, you got it! We look at the BB opposite price (furthest away) because it tends to curve before the one price is riding (closest). So kinda "early warning signal."
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 6, 2013 19:39:50 GMT -8
Mace's line makes a good upper trendline. See green line in this chart -- I tweaked the points (as labeled) a bit to get the most connection points... Mav, concur with you on Fibs 101 for easy composure reference. Chart looks strong to me, so now we let retrace % confirm what our gut's saying. AAPL DAILY CHART: Thanks! That's a really good trendline, hadn't noticed that. I was focusing on the mega macro trendline. I'm better with support trendlines and channels (two or more trendlines) then I am with just plain "upside resistance" I guess.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 7, 2013 16:17:39 GMT -8
Now I know why non-technicals types can get ticked off by technicals types. Because technicals types might say "in retrospect, today's pullback was expected". Even though the "I was just surprised by it as the rest of you before taking a closer look at the chart and various if/then scenarios" part is silent. I wonder, is this equivalent to technicals types being ticked off by EW statements? ;D Speaking of which... Here's a retrospective trip down Woulda-Coulda-Shoulda Lane. Corey Rosenbloom mapping out AAPL technical trading strategy this time last yearNow THAT was a drop I *should* have anticipated (Avi did, but I didn't believe) but totally shocked me by the severity and fundamental illogic. P.S. I'm not making parallels of now and then. Then, we were in the grips of a downtrend, having dropped 200 points; now we're in the grips of an uptrend, having risen 200 points. Come on, 61.8% retrace / reclaimed upside!!! ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 7, 2013 16:42:11 GMT -8
It WAS severe and illogical.
But now we know what the market's capable of so we can hew to objective rules a bit better and limit a little more damage if ever there's a next time.
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Post by lucy on Dec 8, 2013 6:32:50 GMT -8
Thank you for posting that Ms Ipad! Individually, it sometimes gets a little overwhelming following all the views on aapl.
Thanks again.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 8, 2013 21:08:02 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2013 8:50:52 GMT -8
And again, news "overwrites" my untimely weekend post. I'm OK with that! ;D
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Post by mace on Dec 9, 2013 11:56:36 GMT -8
The real test is now. AAPL is rejected at $569, 61.8% retracement of the $575 to $559. Will it continue to decline till below $559 or break above $575 (very likely if go above $559 today or tomorrow).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 9, 2013 12:03:24 GMT -8
Minor adjustments to give myself a little more time.
mace, I think that's EW talk, or maybe too micro for me. 567-ish/569 micro resistance, sure. 559-560 action area, yep, but we don't really know what's around the corner.
I thought I saw two selling spikes on the volume chart. Seems a bit unusual, but AAPL's hanging in there. 3 pts off the intraday high isn't terrible in the context of a 561 intraday low.
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Post by mace on Dec 10, 2013 11:50:54 GMT -8
The real test is now. AAPL is rejected at $569, 61.8% retracement of the $575 to $559. Will it continue to decline till below $559 or break above $575 (very likely if go above $569 today or tomorrow). Neither happen. Today, LoD is $561.20. HoD $567.88. Edit: Added $567.88
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2013 12:58:42 GMT -8
Micro bullish. Overall very constructive.
Obviously, there still has to be confirmation and eventually, a move at and over 575ish.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 10, 2013 16:52:18 GMT -8
Today's daily candle = inside day.
Daily MACD-h = mountain with negative slope = downwave in an uptrend. Last three candles on daily chart = sideways consolidation. Could be bear flag (and/or EW 4th wave setting up for a 5th up).
Upper BB ~ 579-ish. EMA-13 ~ 552-ish. (non-div adjusted)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 10, 2013 18:04:19 GMT -8
At this point I think you make just as good a case for a bull flag, rejection candle aside (which, yes, makes the case for a micro bear flag).
Three candles reflect stabilizing price action IMHO. AAPL not especially weak around 560-561. If it was I'd be more concerned about that support level.
Micro H&S theory gets weaker at 565+ and stronger at 561-.
If there's some significant break at 565, maybe that bizarre H&S (pretty sharp incline for a neckline) might be in play. Who knows.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 12, 2013 13:06:02 GMT -8
Sleepy trading, but AAPL doesn't seem _that_ weak. If AAPL falls below support and targets 545, maybe some short-term weakness.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 12, 2013 19:41:55 GMT -8
Now wait a minute, what is all this FA doing cluttering up the TA thread?!?!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 13, 2013 9:22:02 GMT -8
Short-term bearish signs visible.
No expected new news until 12/18 - time to sell/rotate out of AAPL some in the mindset of WS? Who knows.
Four straight down days, but weakening micro technicals and a maybe-attempt by bears to "validate" micro bear flag from breakout failure/one or two micro H&S patterns/MACD-h daily negative crossover confluence may be in play.
Since I'm in swing trader mode for now I'll just stand pat for the time being. If I need to make adjustments on 12/18 so be it. The sky is not falling based on the daily chart.
Two straight inverted hammer-type candles on the weekly are worth noting (second one looks a bit more representative), but there's yet to be follow-through.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 14, 2013 15:11:07 GMT -8
It's gonna be one heck of a week: Technicals vs. News, Round 2 or so
News has been helping lately, amusingly enough.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 15, 2013 15:41:05 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 16, 2013 16:10:50 GMT -8
MACD-h bearish cross on the daily.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 16, 2013 16:39:27 GMT -8
From Friday, yup.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2013 12:10:34 GMT -8
How funny would it be if the 61.8% sub-uptrend retrace held (it's not exact, but "not breaking below" counts IMHO)
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2013 12:32:53 GMT -8
Could make an argument that the H&S is in the rear-view mirror now.
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Post by mace on Dec 18, 2013 13:42:14 GMT -8
Could make an argument that the H&S is in the rear-view mirror now. Only if AAPL gaps up tomorrow.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2013 15:56:07 GMT -8
Ghostine pooh-poohs AAPL hammer.
I say, what about TSLA?
SPY doesn't show mean reversion. Nor QQQ. Of course it's not ultra-bullish, but it wasn't funny to any shorts that tried to press.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2013 16:18:33 GMT -8
Ghostine appears to be force-fitting a mutant H&S and using the very highest uptrend point as the basis for the measured move.. Aside from H&S triggers not always being 100% of the MM, whatcha think of the use of the 575 spike? Is there another valid measuring point or not?
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