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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 18, 2013 16:21:31 GMT -8
Can you post a chart? Trying to see what you mean...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2013 16:24:11 GMT -8
stks.co/plgQIt could just be one scenario, but Ghostine can be bearish on AAPL at times.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 18, 2013 16:32:41 GMT -8
Interesting. Not where I would have thought to draw it.
So his measured move is around the daily SMA-50.
Not out of the question. Especially if we don't decisively reclaim the daily SMA-20 soon.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 18, 2013 16:44:00 GMT -8
It's the most bearish way to interpret a H&S around that region.
I actually measured to 545 at first.
May have a trendline worth watching! Will post later.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 11:14:32 GMT -8
Double (or triple) confluence at 537ish (call it mid/high 530s), sort of?
61.8% retrace of sub-uptrend from 517 or so (you know which one, iPad, since we agreed on the start point)
38.2% retrace of sub-uptrend from 478 or so (around Oct. 10, after the air pocket, when AAPL finally found some firm footing and said "enough of this consolidation, time for a breakout")
Plus EMA-8 weekly (non-div-adjusted) I guess.
Important level to hold short-term. But since the actual uptrend measures from the high 380s, it'll take considerably more "chart damage" for me to get worried about intermediate uptrend.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 11:17:44 GMT -8
Could be a useful composure line (yellow/gold)=, click twice for best quality):
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Post by nathanstevens on Dec 19, 2013 12:05:19 GMT -8
Could be a useful composure line (yellow/gold)=, click twice for best quality): I think that line corresponds to the 8 week MA that I'm watching.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 19, 2013 13:05:33 GMT -8
"Bearish" narrative taking over short-term? Who knows. Sigh.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 19, 2013 21:51:05 GMT -8
"Bearish" narrative taking over short-term? Who knows. Sigh. Your gold trendline is still holding...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2013 13:22:08 GMT -8
Not good, but not terrible/doomsday either.
Micro bias does seem to be to the downside. Oh well.
On the bright side, lower BB has never been higher this entire uptrend. And though you can blame "upside pinning", that hammer from two days ago may have been a bigger look-behind "hint" than some believe, IF AAPL can regain some momentum in the next 1-3 weeks.
iPad's reclaim/retain informal composure measurement target of current downwave in uptrend (from 575.14 top >> double-test of 538.80) is 561ish. Call it 560ish?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 20, 2013 13:29:17 GMT -8
Trendline watch (which I suppose doubles as "right shoulder watch" just because it's AAPL): Need to click twice for best quality.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 22, 2013 16:28:56 GMT -8
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Post by mace on Dec 23, 2013 23:15:30 GMT -8
Island reversal .
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 24, 2013 0:28:54 GMT -8
Hey! Nice catch!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 24, 2013 10:43:15 GMT -8
Island reversal . What Mav said! Good eye, Mace!
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 24, 2013 11:21:11 GMT -8
Ahem! Navin, go sit in the corner!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 24, 2013 13:53:52 GMT -8
Super-micro-timeframe-wise, the 61.8% retrace of the 562.76-571.88 post-China Mobile news move more or less held. It's about 566.25, AAPL dropped a quarter below that level but then bounced above. Now AAPL did have a little "trouble" out of the gate yesterday, but I'm trying to look at this small data set more holistically.
It's just the one metric but holding 566-ish and/or making higher lows on the way to 570 would seem pretty bullish "as long as there aren't any signs of weakness" (whatever that means).
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 27, 2013 14:12:57 GMT -8
Key short-term SMA-20 daily test here. Nothing end of the world, but AAPL is still micro bearish per MACD-h daily.
EMA-8 test a confluence point.
BBs potentially signaling a decision gate. Bandwidth is fairly narrow at 28 points, though the most recent decision gate was within a bandwidth of only about 15 points.
Gold line/right shoulder watch continues.
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 27, 2013 17:55:07 GMT -8
Excellent read, Mav!
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 27, 2013 19:14:44 GMT -8
My address is 222 Daily Chart Lane, Simplified Version, Just a Few Indicators, Trendlines USA. ;D
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 30, 2013 9:34:23 GMT -8
Oh, goody.
The "worst-case" micro technical scenario.
50-day test underway?
Well, my portfolio will hopefully survive. At least I don't think some 6-month downwave is on the way...
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 30, 2013 14:10:17 GMT -8
No panicking unless we lose the daily SMA-50. See chart (left side) for Fib grid. Gap fill confluence with 61.8% retrace. Any lower, bulls losing Tug of War. Key technical levels: Lower daily BB = 545.51 Daily PSAR = 543.78 Daily SMA-50 = 538.22
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2013 8:36:00 GMT -8
Higher lows continue. Not bad at all in the intermediate scheme of things.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2013 11:26:03 GMT -8
Look to next week for more info then we'll get this one?
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Post by lovemyipad on Dec 31, 2013 13:26:00 GMT -8
Look to next week for more info then we'll get this one? Yes. Mid-channel can be tricky with lots of headfakes...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Dec 31, 2013 14:04:31 GMT -8
THAN we'll get, not then. NYE typing pre-hangover. ;D
That said, over SMA-20 for now, and the way it's over the average (little burst of strength end of day) is instantaneously a constructive thing.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 1, 2014 23:14:16 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 2, 2014 13:12:32 GMT -8
Aaahhhh...the joys of the mid-channel continue... Wow, the number of recent gaps (up and down!) make the chart look more like that of an index versus an equity! So, I have no read here. Looks like a coin toss -- typical mid-channel six-of-one and half-dozen-of-another. Mav, did we tag your gold line today?
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Post by appledoc on Jan 2, 2014 13:20:25 GMT -8
Aaahhhh...the joys of the mid-channel continue... Wow, the number of recent gaps (up and down!) make the chart look more like that of an index versus an equity! So, I have no read here. Looks like a coin toss -- typical mid-channel six-of-one and half-dozen-of-another. Mav, did we tag your gold line today? Not a good day. Really wanted to see follow-through from Tuesday. Instead, we got the opposite. Gave back up the SMA20. SMA50 and the lower bound of our trend are aligned at 540. Would be great to see double support and bad to see both break. If both break, I would lean toward the LD off 385 being complete, and a multi-month long retrace ahead of us with an end in the 450-500 range. If we get that, and I can see three pretty waves from 575, I would load the boat like never before.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 2, 2014 13:46:42 GMT -8
Aaahhhh...the joys of the mid-channel continue... Wow, the number of recent gaps (up and down!) make the chart look more like that of an index versus an equity! So, I have no read here. Looks like a coin toss -- typical mid-channel six-of-one and half-dozen-of-another. Mav, did we tag your gold line today? AAPL is almost starting to resemble, like, SLV kinda sorta. I saw a gold line tag. (I did update the charts on my blog recently, of course. ) It's not a breach, but the gold line is just one little reference line anyway, so take it for what little it's worth. Aside from gold line we have moving averages, BB lower band, Fib retrace (still holding 38.2%), etc. etc. Another #wrongalyst got AAPL started off on the wrong foot with that downgrade, though that may have been more market "pretext" than anything else. This is one of those times I really can't understand the market (it's even worse than usual).
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