Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 3, 2014 13:38:35 GMT -8
Oh things just got "fun". *shrug*
Macro OK, micro - mess.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 4, 2014 17:09:28 GMT -8
SMA50 and the lower bound of our trend are aligned at 540. Would be great to see double support and bad to see both break. And here we are... Very important juncture...
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Post by appledoc on Jan 5, 2014 15:13:51 GMT -8
I actually take back what I said earlier. Lower trend line was at 529 Friday. Motivewave was projecting the lines differently on different charts despite being identical in all ways I can see.
So yeah, critical to not lose the SMA50. Would be good to see a gap down followed by a RDR tomorrow.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 5, 2014 17:27:44 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 5, 2014 17:31:49 GMT -8
Well, at least he's honest about his mistakes.
Intermediate still fine. Micro getting ugly soon.
SMA-50, but we're in some bizarre sentiment selling cycle right now, maybe helped along by one downgrade, or was it two, plus that gigantic CM unknown. AAPL is bound to stabilize within a few weeks, the fundamental picture is too strong for Oct '12 - June '13 or whatever to happen all over again (well, I guess we could always have a market panic or crash too).
But right now it's like an "air pocket" of news, data and market activity. Boy does AAPL not do so great with those.
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Post by appledoc on Jan 6, 2014 8:12:44 GMT -8
I actually take back what I said earlier. Lower trend line was at 529 Friday. Motivewave was projecting the lines differently on different charts despite being identical in all ways I can see. So yeah, critical to not lose the SMA50. Would be good to see a gap down followed by a RDR tomorrow. Yup.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 6, 2014 12:36:45 GMT -8
Holding where it has to.
Given the post-holiday/rally state of the markets, plus targets being more guidelines these days, nice one-day bounce I guess. Where to from here, who knows. I'd rather not see a SMA-50 retest anytime soon - that could be very news-dependent.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 6, 2014 13:42:36 GMT -8
Nice RDR. Now, let's see if we can hold above 61.8% retrace...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 8, 2014 11:32:19 GMT -8
Rangebound-ish slog 'til earnings? Or at least after Jan 14 monthly OpEx?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2014 14:12:05 GMT -8
Bizarre choppy pennant/continuation-ish pattern forming on the daily? Would be a decent technical narrative for "good" earnings next week.
And if not, well…not.
Been tracking a trend line that now has three reference points…of sorts. Will post later.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 21, 2014 18:22:16 GMT -8
Need to break UP and out of this down channel thingy...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 21, 2014 21:51:52 GMT -8
Lost the gold line... But more or less holding a light green line that I hadn't really thought would be in play back when I "drew" it (it was only two contacts, then): Note the pennant-ish action forming riiiiight around "put up or shut up" time. What a surprise to see this right before earnings. You can make bullish OR bearish cases, probably equally strong ones too. Groan.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 23, 2014 17:02:01 GMT -8
Good chart, Mav! Thank you!
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 27, 2014 14:20:17 GMT -8
Well, we have some resolution now... :/
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Jan 27, 2014 15:05:04 GMT -8
480-510ish support zone is one place to look based on AH action, I guess.
480 also a measured move target, more or less, based on what could be a multi-week October 2013 to present H&S pattern.
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Post by lovemyipad on Jan 27, 2014 19:32:30 GMT -8
Weekly EMA-50 = 502.35
Div adjusted
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 7, 2014 21:31:59 GMT -8
Keeping an eye on this. Air Pocket 2.0? (Granted, this is the "bullish" case. OTOH, technicals actually aren't that bad on the daily, and one composure trendline/the macro 38.2% Fib retrace levels _are_ holding.)
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 8, 2014 20:48:09 GMT -8
Mav, I like it! I may have found a potential channel here...if support can hold... Yellow diamonds indicate points of connection... AAPL DAILY CHART:
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 26, 2014 14:37:52 GMT -8
Key Fib here... AAPL INTRADAY 1H CHART:
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 26, 2014 16:20:01 GMT -8
AAPL looking interesting soon.
I'm thinking the macro environment still favors rangebound hypothesis. Meaning that if the bottom of a range more or less holds...
How best to trade that, should I get the chance...I guess I'll figure that out when/if it happens
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 4, 2014 11:58:08 GMT -8
AAPL still interesting - if stuck in second gear.
AAPL more or less holding both the SMA-20 daily and hourly. AAPL technically in micro uptrend/daily MACD-h (second day).
I'm utterly confused, so I'm trying to stick with basics starting with trendlines. Tracking several as guidelines. May post about 'em later.
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 4, 2014 15:54:01 GMT -8
Mid-channel. You know how that goes...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 4, 2014 16:55:32 GMT -8
Yup. But it WAS a retest and _hold_ day so there's that.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 5, 2014 11:05:09 GMT -8
So many possible trendlines (click twice for full resolution)
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 11, 2014 19:25:22 GMT -8
Looks good. Fingers crossed.
Need to stay above 535-ish...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 12, 2014 21:24:19 GMT -8
IMHO, "confirmation" is breaking one or more of those reference downtrend lines and triggering an IHS-type pattern, basically like we saw with Air Pocket I a few months back. Technicals do look net positive (yes low volume, but doing pretty well at a volatility inflection point, MACD-h positive, just plain nice and constructive and not irrationally exuberant stuff), but the instantaneous read is more "there might be something good around the corner if AAPL can hang in there" than "THERE'S GOWLD IN THEM THAR HILLS" On the downside, I might get a little nervous if the darker green line doesn't hold, or 530 as a level.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 18, 2014 13:22:40 GMT -8
Still waiting for something to happen. Chart looked better last Wednesday, but IMHO the daily chart read remains net positive even from a shorter-term perspective. (You may easily think differently, of course.) In any case, no confirmation of anything without a decisive move. To me, "decisive" to the downside is breaking the purple line and falling off from there (approaching the red line = even more bearish). It's just a WAG, but "decisive" to the upside would be a sustained breakout above the blue trendline/reference line. 575+ would be the ultimate goal for bulls, but there's plenty of reference lines along the way (green/orange/upper gold downtrend lines).
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Post by lovemyipad on Mar 20, 2014 14:13:35 GMT -8
Nice, Mav! Have I mentioned that I loathe the mid-channel? Here's my wishful thinking...
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 20, 2014 14:55:53 GMT -8
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Mar 21, 2014 13:20:21 GMT -8
I think today was a day to take notice, even though AAPL hasn't really made a move yet. My WAG: Up, provided a number of variables net out in AAPL's favor.
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