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Post by aaplsauce on May 5, 2021 21:19:52 GMT -8
Good morning fellow AAPL investors! I thought I would give Dave's suggestion on Tuesday that "... someone not on the east coast could open the upcoming daily thread the night before going to bed", a try. I am not in Wall Street's time zone. One of the concerns about opening a thread with a link to news items so early is that the news items might become stale before breakfast. In order to provide fresh news to you, here is the link to Apple Investor News, "always updating news stream". This is my first attempt at starting a thread, so I hope the stitches hold! Let's see some green today.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on May 6, 2021 2:15:48 GMT -8
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bud777
fire starter
Posts: 1,352
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Post by bud777 on May 6, 2021 7:33:16 GMT -8
In my compulsive search for (exploitable) rationality in the market, I stumbled across an interesting tidbit. In 2020, the market was 10% retail investors. Now, with the advent of Robbinghood, it is 37% retail. No wonder fundamentals are being disregarded. There used to be a website called Robintrack that gave info on the number of Robbinghood investors who owned a particular stock. Evidently, Robbinghood shut down the API, but I am pretty confident that insiders have access to the data. Given the herd mentality ( a basic tenet of Robinhood), it seems like there is a real opportunity to front-run the momentum. So we have a market that can be controlled by the Robbinghood market makers who then influence the blind algorithms. Welcome to the casino. Would you like a free drink?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,099
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Post by Dave on May 6, 2021 8:37:22 GMT -8
Thanks Bud, sadly that starts to make sense.
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Post by Lstream on May 6, 2021 9:02:15 GMT -8
In my compulsive search for (exploitable) rationality in the market, I stumbled across an interesting tidbit. In 2020, the market was 10% retail investors. Now, with the advent of Robbinghood, it is 37% retail. No wonder fundamentals are being disregarded. There used to be a website called Robintrack that gave info on the number of Robbinghood investors who owned a particular stock. Evidently, Robbinghood shut down the API, but I am pretty confident that insiders have access to the data. Given the herd mentality ( a basic tenet of Robinhood), it seems like there is a real opportunity to front-run the momentum. So we have a market that can be controlled by the Robbinghood market makers who then influence the blind algorithms. Welcome to the casino. Would you like a free drink? I wonder what percent of the retail money at play is traded through Robinhood? I wouldn’t be surprised if most of the people on that platform are small players
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on May 6, 2021 9:08:06 GMT -8
"aggressive dovish stance". Hmmmm, sounds like an oxymoron But so does a shorter term theory of "(exploitable) rationality in the market". In fact, the exploitable part is the irrationality in the shorter term. With the order feed from one or more retail sites, one could see if something was suddenly popular, like Gamestop. And that would be without trying to even front run the orders. It would just be momentum trading, but seeing it before/while the order was placed instead of just based on the transactions once they happen. Split out, that can show retail vs other places. It's not all new. Even 20-23 years ago, one of the things people would latch on to was retail vs other, along with how the purchases were made (ie bid vs ask). It looks like the page isn't coming up, but in my bookmarks I have Thomsonfn AAPL Arrows: iwp.thomsonfn.com/tfspro/iwatch/cgi-bin/iw_ticker?ticker=aapl , probably from '98 or '99. I don't follow other individual stocks closely enough to know if they have the same issues of going against the direction one would expect. Apple is special in a variety of ways, one of which is now having such a huge market cap that some do use it as a bank. I had my doubts on that, and still don't even have a guess at the percentage of float, but a well-off neighbor's dad said he does that with his business (mainly real estate in SF) float, selling when he needs the money. Either way, we know investors in general aren't always completely level headed, often overshooting the highs and undershooting the lows. Or getting too worried about something that doesn't matter much (Greece?) and not being attentive enough of some things that do end up being big. There's lots of things that are exploitable, some complex, but some pretty simple. Think "Dogs of the Dow", that most things revert to the mean. Buy a little more when things are undervalued, and sell a little when overvalued. It sounds simple in concept.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 6, 2021 9:54:02 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on May 6, 2021 11:04:18 GMT -8
Ridiculous like lots of stuff in IBD. That guy is the Trump of Wall Street. HIs advice is-just be skeptical or you will go broke buying at the highs hoping for a new high. Since the split Apple has gone no where. Many hedge funds are selling Apple to finance the new gold, bit coin. The amount of money in these "investments" staggering and since TSLA bought some every "forward thinking CEO" is aiming to buy some as well. And since taxes are so low along with investments in their own companies and prices are so high, CEOs are in a situation across the board where many companies have more money than sense. Apple is doing fine as long as they stay away from bit coin etc, and focus. If you look at the Wall Street Bets reddit forum, if you can stomach that sort of "conversation" you see very sharp moves in all sorts of companies that were under 10 until recently. At the same time these companies are all shorted at around 20 percent give or take. GME stock is even owned at 103% which seems to be statistically impossible? This is sucking up real investment money and putting a lid on the nasdaq 100 which used to be considered the limit of speculation. This craziness attracts all kinds of money. Just look at the market caps of the "bitcoin legions" and the "wall street bets" stocks. Lots of coins. A solution is to allowing "wall street bets" stocks to trade only in bitcoin.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,631
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Post by 4aapl on May 6, 2021 11:20:52 GMT -8
This article off the stock app was interesting for Apple's "antitrust issues". www.vox.com/recode/2021/5/6/22421760/apple-antitrust-john-gruber-app-store-epic-fortnite-spotify-podcast-recode-mediaIf Apple is found to be illegally using it's app store monopoly, this is one of the easiest ways it might be settled, of Apple allowing links to non-App store payment options. If the same price, how many would bother going elsewhere? Could they stipulate that it's the same price, or would that also create problems? (probably) Or in the long run, like what fortnight seems to want to do, would the app makers point things to their own app store at a lower price, but then lose so much money making their own store that it wouldn't make sense? Does the app store change into a pricing structure like utilities, where you pretty much are still dependent on who owns the lines, but they split up the costs for energy vs delivery vs basic service vs taxes? Does the consumer actually come out ahead? Another alternate solution that I have wondered about is if Apple will be forced to allow other app stores. It might be opt-in, non-default. Things could go that way if Apple was really behaving badly with the current system. But, with generally most to all major app stores also charging 30%, it seems unlikely. But even if it did happen, it probably wouldn't be terrible, instead being something that only a single digit percent of people used, while also realizing that there isn't as much behind the scenes app checking going on. Similar to how jailbreaking was. Or installing MacOS on a non-Apple computer. Green is good, even if more green would feel better.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
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Post by chinacat on May 6, 2021 16:21:54 GMT -8
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Post by playultimate on May 7, 2021 3:44:40 GMT -8
Despite the antagonism toward the Apple iOS App Store, there is a retail model that is similar: the consignment store. Like a consignment store, Apple does some curation and then does a % markup. And the seller does not profit nor is charged until the product is sold. I think if Apple "lost" and had to "open" their store, they would covert to a different retail model. I suspect they would never open it up in the ways that Epic and others would like them to. They could have greater curation and flip to a retail, grocery store model. Or they could use an Amazon model. In both cases, you still would not be able to link or allow the developer to encourage purchases outside of the ecosystem. But for most developers, the current system seems to be working pretty well. It is mostly the high revenue devs, after gaining the benefits from the store, that are whining.
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