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Post by sponge on Feb 8, 2013 15:57:39 GMT -8
Am I really starting this.
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 8, 2013 16:01:02 GMT -8
Thank you, Spongie!!
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Post by appledoc on Feb 8, 2013 16:03:19 GMT -8
Nice weekly candle. Please do continue next week.
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Post by sponge on Feb 8, 2013 16:06:29 GMT -8
According to Sir Isaac Newton, if we get two green days on Monday and Tuesday, he expects us to then have a real shot at hitting 500 soon after. A few other TA folks also feel the same way.
I hope that comes true because I want us to get away from $400 once and for all.
What a great week.
By the way I don't see TC and company giving in to WS to share more of the loot. They will increase the dividend and buyback, however I suspect WS will not be pleased with the amounts.
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Post by Unique on Feb 8, 2013 16:31:25 GMT -8
Sponge, are you talking about FearNewton?
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Post by BillH on Feb 8, 2013 16:49:03 GMT -8
I'd like to nominate the following exchange for some type of guide on how to successfully post in forums. It's clearly both insulting AND accommodating which allows ones point to be expressed in the vehement manner intended...,but...,the recipients volleyed in like kind with intelligence and wit. Well played sirs! Well played. Re: Friday, 02/08/13: $474.98 « Reply #106 Today at 6:42pm » Today at 5:54pm, JDSoCal wrote: Today at 5:41pm, benoir wrote: I question the smug response from you two arrogant arses... Religious dogma? Standing ovations? All I am doing is participating in this board. Get of your high horses and start participating too. The level of demeaning posts on this board gives me the shits. This is meant to be a community of AAPL investors/traders with a diverse range of experiences and opinions. I come here for that broad base, it helps( not define) determine my sentiment in AAPL. I don't come here to hear only one side of the equation as that to me sounds like religious dogma. As an investor it would improve my positive sentiment in AAPL if a chunk went into buy backs. Thats my opinion, it may also be the sentiment of a few others... i don't know. Something has to happen to the money if they are to accumulate $25b per quarter and share buy backs may be one as sure as a dividend is. I say it again, for tax reasons I'd rather not get the dividend. So from my perspective I'm putting it out there that perhaps a buy back is an option. I might be wrong and I am happy for further discourse contrary to my position. Well, as the representative from the arrogant asses, I'd suggest you get some Immodium. Because if some disagreeable posts give you GI trouble, then you're in for some real diarrhea investing in a stock as volatile as AAPL. Before I posted today, Benoir, I had not seen a single contrary opinion here to the constant drumbeat that buybacks will have a material positive effect on the stock. I'd call that dogma. Quote: dog·ma noun \ˈdȯg-mə, ˈdäg-\ 1 a : something held as an established opinion; especially : a definite authoritative tenet b : a code of such tenets <pedagogical dogma> c : a point of view or tenet put forth as authoritative without adequate grounds I'll go with "c." Show me the case studies where buybacks boost a stock price. Then I'll still tell you why they are not applicable in this case, because Apple is already trading well below any fair valuation. BTW, if you want to make Mark's point about correcting share float on ethical grounds, that's another matter. But dropping 11-figures of potential dividend wealth on a "maybe" seems foolhardy to me. Here's one for all of you buyback proponents: Ever wonder why only bulls, never bears, talk about Apple's P/E? The correct answer will be posted later. Jd I appreciate your response as the representative of the arrogant arses and allow me to respond as a representative of the gastrically challenged. I think your definition of dogma is almost correct although I would never suggest I am am an authority on the subject. And I'm not fervent about it, so it ain't religious. Being long for 13 years I too have been concerned by share dilution ( not that I started from that premise) - this arithmetically has an impact on value and perhaps (unauthoritatively used ) erodes investor positive sentiments. So conversely the proposition that a buy back increases value, through concentration and improves sentiment may also be valid. It sounds logical. Should we not start from a logical premiss then look for ways to refute it? I'm all for being told the contrary so long as the rationale is articulated. I just don't see much reasoning that it won't work apart from, the argument that there's no evidence to support it. I've always found the contributions of the arrogant arse alliance insightful but like with anything posted here I think we all need to be critical. Otherwise we do fall into the potential religious dogma trap - the cult of Apple. Anyway I have to get me some Imodium ( now that I know what that is)
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Post by sponge on Feb 8, 2013 17:20:09 GMT -8
Sponge, are you talking about FearNewton? yes
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Post by rezonate on Feb 8, 2013 17:35:05 GMT -8
Wonder if we should have a second 600 party in March?
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2013 17:45:09 GMT -8
I saw this too late to post on the intraday thread, so I'll post it here.
Any theories that buybacks will increase shareholder value are incomplete if they don't include aberrations to EPS/PE valuation theory. I'm talking about the Prince, no King, of zero earnings, declining growth and accelerating PE growth...AMZN Facebook, Netflix and Twitter are a couple more.
AAPL is trading well below the S & P 500 average, yet only a very few in its category (if any) operate with its gross margins, revenue growth, market share growth and EPS growth. What's wrong with AAPL cannot be "fixed" with a simple share buyback. It will take learned investors (of which there are not enough among the retail sector) actually studying Apple's 10Qs and conference call transcripts, doing comparative analysis against its competitors, and not relying on the sound bite opinions of people just as uninformed as themselves to turn this puppy.
For what its worth, it appears the learned are making those buying decisions now, and not waiting for someone else to tell them the water is fine.
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Post by sponge on Feb 8, 2013 17:46:03 GMT -8
Wonder if we should have a second 600 party in March? I will be in Vegas the last weekend of March. Coming back from skiing in Utah. If we hit $600 by then, I am all up for it. Bring your friends.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 8, 2013 17:49:32 GMT -8
"Re-party"? ;D
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2013 17:51:48 GMT -8
According to Sir Isaac Newton, if we get two green days on Monday and Tuesday, he expects us to then have a real shot at hitting 500 soon after. A few other TA folks also feel the same way. I hope that comes true because I want us to get away from $400 once and for all. What a great week. By the way I don't see TC and company giving in to WS to share more of the loot. They will increase the dividend and buyback, however I suspect WS will not be pleased with the amounts. I'm going to call this crap (the Newton statement). As we have seen countless times, when the market doesn't get what it wants (seldom the same thing as rational) a sell off follows. If TC doesn't give the buyback/dividend people what they want Tuesday afternoon its highly likely that Wednesday will experience a sell off, no matter how green AAPL was on Monday and Tuesday. This is why I'm going all cash Tuesday afternoon. If the market likes what it heard I jump back in, albeit at a higher Strike. If they don't like what they heard I'll jump back in, albeit at a lower Strike. Either way I've protected my capital from the vagaries of a fickle, irrational market when the catalyst for move is visible in advance. As an aside, I agree that TC will not give in to the short sighted.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2013 17:58:53 GMT -8
Wonder if we should have a second 600 party in March? I will be in Vegas the last weekend of March. Coming back from skiing in Utah. If we hit $600 by then, I am all up for it. Bring your friends. I suggest the gloves be 24 ounce.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 8, 2013 17:59:44 GMT -8
Arrogant Arse Alliance...
Damn, I guess I have the wrong AAA membership. But mine DOES give free towing and valuable discounts! ;D
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Post by Deleted on Feb 8, 2013 18:02:42 GMT -8
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Post by sponge on Feb 8, 2013 18:04:08 GMT -8
Yes the stock that keeps on giving as it hits price targets two times every 12 months. Gregg Nothing is guaranteed, but TA so far has correctly shown that we can go from 705 to 440. Also TA has shown that 440 so far is the bottom. We now have two weeks of up moves from 439. There is momentum and I think it will carry us thru next week. Sentiment is changing and the charts confirm that. I value Newton because he correctly pointed out prior to earnings that we will have to re-vist 485 after hitting 517 the day of earnings. He also correctly showed that we must hit 445 or lower this week after moving from 435 to 460 the prior week. He now says with confidence we have hit the bottom and are going up from here.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 8, 2013 18:06:47 GMT -8
One person's confidence is another's cautious optimism (me).
I still don't like that gap to 470, but AAPL did hold higher the entire day.
Point of reference for next WTF downwave? ;D (God I hope not)
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Post by Lstream on Feb 8, 2013 18:08:04 GMT -8
So has the other rear view mirror. The price.
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 8, 2013 18:10:08 GMT -8
Arrogant Arse Alliance... Damn, I guess I have the wrong AAA membership. But mine DOES give free towing and valuable discounts! ;D Apple Arrogant Arse Alliance. ( AAAA) can I join? Are there dues?
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Post by Red Shirted Ensign on Feb 8, 2013 18:12:05 GMT -8
One person's confidence is another's cautious optimism (me). I still don't like that gap to 470, but AAPL did hold higher the entire day. Point of reference for next WTF downwave? ;D (God I hope not) Aren't we also filling the post earnings downward gap? Gap fight?
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 8, 2013 18:13:08 GMT -8
So has the other rear view mirror. The price. Wait up, sponge. Technicals don't predict anything. That's the Ellioticians' game. I will keep my eyes open for filled green Weaksauce Candles of Forboding™ next time I think AAPL is _finally_ gonna be valued appropriately, though.
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Mav
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Post by Mav on Feb 8, 2013 18:15:32 GMT -8
Ensign, I forget what iPad had to say about total air pockets of intersecting gaps.
For now, I'm looking at 480ish and how well AAPL can perform over 465. The SMA-100 is somewhere along the way...iPad's and my SMA-100 data sources don't agree tho.
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Post by sponge on Feb 8, 2013 18:17:00 GMT -8
So has the other rear view mirror. The price. Actually Mace correctly pointed out that closing below max pain every month is bearish. We have every month since Sept.
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Post by Unique on Feb 8, 2013 18:32:52 GMT -8
As we have seen many times, many technical traders including myself had called the tops and bottoms of AAPL. Google has cached the old AFB forum, you could go take a look. BTW, 480 was predicted earlier this week and bottom of 435 too. I think it's important to be open about new things and not blindly invalidate something if it does not suit your opinions. With that said, FearNewton failed as a trader during the earnings gap, he lost a lot of money. According to Sir Isaac Newton, if we get two green days on Monday and Tuesday, he expects us to then have a real shot at hitting 500 soon after. A few other TA folks also feel the same way. I hope that comes true because I want us to get away from $400 once and for all. What a great week. By the way I don't see TC and company giving in to WS to share more of the loot. They will increase the dividend and buyback, however I suspect WS will not be pleased with the amounts. I'm going to call this crap (the Newton statement). As we have seen countless times, when the market doesn't get what it wants (seldom the same thing as rational) a sell off follows. If TC doesn't give the buyback/dividend people what they want Tuesday afternoon its highly likely that Wednesday will experience a sell off, no matter how green AAPL was on Monday and Tuesday. This is why I'm going all cash Tuesday afternoon. If the market likes what it heard I jump back in, albeit at a higher Strike. If they don't like what they heard I'll jump back in, albeit at a lower Strike. Either way I've protected my capital from the vagaries of a fickle, irrational market when the catalyst for move is visible in advance. As an aside, I agree that TC will not give in to the short sighted.
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 8, 2013 18:53:36 GMT -8
Wonder if we should have a second 600 party in March? Rez, we are going the 29th through April 2. Do you still have your time share?
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Post by Ultrarunner on Feb 8, 2013 20:27:51 GMT -8
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 8, 2013 20:38:04 GMT -8
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Post by lovemyipad on Feb 8, 2013 21:11:31 GMT -8
I'd like to nominate the following exchange for some type of guide on how to successfully post in forums. It's clearly both insulting AND accommodating which allows ones point to be expressed in the vehement manner intended...,but...,the recipients volleyed in like kind with intelligence and wit. Well played sirs! Well played. I must admit I read the first post with dread, thinking crap, here comes another food fight, then the next two posts thinking wow, I'm seriously impressed. THANK YOU, JD and BENOIR!
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Post by mbeauch on Feb 8, 2013 21:13:05 GMT -8
I must admit I read the first post with dread, thinking crap, here comes another food fight, then the next two posts thinking wow, I'm seriously impressed. The heck with that, I wanted to see spaghetti on the walls. ;D
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Post by Lstream on Feb 8, 2013 21:14:18 GMT -8
I don't doubt that some TA person made those predictions somewhere. But I would also bet that many others made all kinds of wrong calls. With enough predictions and guesswork, someone is always bound to be right.
Show me a statistically relevant study, based upon sound methodology that proves that these calls are not pure fluke, and they are good enough to overcome transaction costs, and I will have a look. I had a very sharp finance prof in business school that essentially proved just then opposite with a lot of rigour. Anecdotes prove nothing.
Unfortunately I think we have quite a few TA enthusiasts here and elsewhere who have been smoked because they had undue confidence in this stuff. Now their accounts are in shambles.
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