|
Post by aaplsauce on Sept 27, 2021 22:08:34 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
|
Post by Dave on Sept 28, 2021 2:36:58 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
|
Post by Dave on Sept 28, 2021 2:42:46 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Sept 28, 2021 5:38:08 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Sept 28, 2021 8:32:49 GMT -8
“ What does any of this have to do with Apple?” It’s all about the amount of money sloshing around in the stock market, boosting multiples. Why did AAPL’s multiple increase from 15 to 30+ as interest rates lowered? Was it a reevaluation of Apple’s prospects in the market? Or was it lots of free money sloshing around, pumping up multiples. I’ve been saying for months, the risk in owning AAPL is not about the company’s business success, it’s about the valuation of the stock. There’s no guarantee that AAPL will have a PE of 30 vs a PE of 20 in the future. Even if the company makes a lot more money, a contraction of the multiple could still send the stock down. Without disagreeing with anything that you said, I do believe that there is one more factor that comes into play for many of us old timers - dividends. Having held long enough to have benefitted from the 7-for-1 and 4-for-1 split, the quarterly dividends now provide a substantial annual windfall for us. While the stock price is prey to the vagaries of investor sentiment, the dividends are more closely tied to Apple’s financial performance and the willingness of the Board to share the benefits of same. While I sometimes feel that they could have increased the annual payouts at a slightly greater rate, it hasn’t ever decreased since we’ve held AAPL, and I certainly don’t expect it to any time soon.
|
|
|
Post by duckpins on Sept 28, 2021 10:00:55 GMT -8
Very negative today with lots of reasons from the talking heads. China, energy and the typical Republican nonsense about raising the debt ceiling. Dems should have automated this process when Obama had a vast majority in both houses. Since the Reds think it benefits them to tank the economy and relentlessly go after Biden who knows what they will do? The unknown/ How much of the energy crises is due to rooms full of bit coin hunting computers sucking the energy of various countries?
And the complete waste of legions of cars and trucks making deliveries?
Things will be bright after the debt is resolved and the infrastructure bill is passed. Let's see what happens. Meanwhile can Jon Stewart save Apple TV?
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Sept 28, 2021 10:07:52 GMT -8
Great post chinacat ! ! It is so easy to see a stock price as some kind of fixed thing related to the well being of the company.
Indeed, not too long ago people complained about the low PE of AAPL. Then, slowly but surely, rather than a longshot, people started thinking of Apple as a solid company. Ergo, price goes up and the PE goes up. AAPL becomes a big winner.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Sept 28, 2021 12:15:13 GMT -8
“ What does any of this have to do with Apple?” It’s all about the amount of money sloshing around in the stock market, boosting multiples. Why did AAPL’s multiple increase from 15 to 30+ as interest rates lowered? Was it a reevaluation of Apple’s prospects in the market? Or was it lots of free money sloshing around, pumping up multiples. I’ve been saying for months, the risk in owning AAPL is not about the company’s business success, it’s about the valuation of the stock. There’s no guarantee that AAPL will have a PE of 30 vs a PE of 20 in the future. Even if the company makes a lot more money, a contraction of the multiple could still send the stock down. Without disagreeing with anything that you said, I do believe that there is one more factor that comes into play for many of us old timers - dividends. Having held long enough to have benefitted from the 7-for-1 and 4-for-1 split, the quarterly dividends now provide a substantial annual windfall for us. While the stock price is prey to the vagaries of investor sentiment, the dividends are more closely tied to Apple’s financial performance and the willingness of the Board to share the benefits of same. While I sometimes feel that they could have increased the annual payouts at a slightly greater rate, it hasn’t ever decreased since we’ve held AAPL, and I certainly don’t expect it to any time soon. Speaking as one of those oldtimers, chinacat, I completely agree with you about the quarterly AAPL dividends. Before we retired, my wife and I worked at the same company, Lockheed Martin...a company with a reasonably good pension plan at the time. I retired in 2008, my wife in 2011...and even though we had been investing 100% in AAPL since 2000, and had paid off our home mortgage, we planned that we would eventually have to *occasionally* sell a few shares of AAPL to supplement our monthly pensions and my Social Security. Then, fortuitously, in August of 2012, Apple restarted it's dividend program...and what a pleasant, *completely* unexpected, financial surprise that was! Many investors scoff at the Apple dividend payout rate ($0.88/year, .61%), but for us it's been a welcome and wonderful addition to our retirement. Thanks to increasing AAPL share price, those splits you mentioned, and, also, the 2-1 split in 2005, our current yearly AAPL dividend total ~ 5 X (my pension[23 years]+wife's pension[29 years]+my Social Security). Our AAPL shares are split about 60%/40% between our IRA accounts and trust accounts...and 100% of the AAPL dividends in our IRA's have been auto-reinvested in new shares of AAPL since 2012. The new shares added to our IRA's because of auto-reinvesting our AAPL dividends for the last 9 years, now equals about 9.3% of our AAPL share total. Well, actually, somewhat less than that, because when I sell shares to satisfy my yearly RMD, I sell the newest shares first. The quarterly AAPL dividends paid to our trust accounts allow us the financial ability to travel...but also to pay our quarterly estimated Federal and State taxes, which are much larger than before we retired, as a consequence of our increased taxes because of my ever-increasing(as I get older) yearly RMD against my ever-increasing IRA's(as the AAPL share price continues to increase)...and of because of those *damned* AAPL quarterly dividends paid to our trust accounts. 😂
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Sept 28, 2021 12:20:38 GMT -8
Very negative today with lots of reasons from the talking heads. China, energy and the typical Republican nonsense about raising the debt ceiling. Dems should have automated this process when Obama had a vast majority in both houses. Since the Reds think it benefits them to tank the economy and relentlessly go after Biden who knows what they will do? The unknown/ How much of the energy crises is due to rooms full of bit coin hunting computers sucking the energy of various countries? And the complete waste of legions of cars and trucks making deliveries? Things will be bright after the debt is resolved and the infrastructure bill is passed. Let's see what happens. Meanwhile can Jon Stewart save Apple TV?Always love watching Jon Stewart...but as long as Apple TV keeps getting shows as good as Ted Lasso...does it really *need* saving? 😎
|
|
|
Post by macster on Sept 28, 2021 13:02:48 GMT -8
Very negative today with lots of reasons from the talking heads. China, energy and the typical Republican nonsense about raising the debt ceiling. Dems should have automated this process when Obama had a vast majority in both houses. Since the Reds think it benefits them to tank the economy and relentlessly go after Biden who knows what they will do? The unknown/ How much of the energy crises is due to rooms full of bit coin hunting computers sucking the energy of various countries? And the complete waste of legions of cars and trucks making deliveries? Things will be bright after the debt is resolved and the infrastructure bill is passed. Let's see what happens. Meanwhile can Jon Stewart save Apple TV? Yeah it’s a bitch, it is always a political football but a little more color is needed about the debt ceiling. Pretty balanced article. Why Stewart when we have Gutfeld. We don’t need politics on Apple TV or here. thehill.com/homenews/senate/564667-gop-sees-debt-ceiling-as-its-leverage-against-biden
|
|
crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 311
|
Post by crispin on Sept 28, 2021 13:45:20 GMT -8
Very negative today with lots of reasons from the talking heads. China, energy and the typical Republican nonsense about raising the debt ceiling. Dems should have automated this process when Obama had a vast majority in both houses. Since the Reds think it benefits them to tank the economy and relentlessly go after Biden who knows what they will do? The unknown/ How much of the energy crises is due to rooms full of bit coin hunting computers sucking the energy of various countries? And the complete waste of legions of cars and trucks making deliveries? Things will be bright after the debt is resolved and the infrastructure bill is passed. Let's see what happens. Meanwhile can Jon Stewart save Apple TV? Very much looking forward to seeing the brilliance of Jon Stewart again, though I understand it will be quite different than the old Daily Show. In his absence, John Oliver has really established himself in that space with his own outstanding show. It'll be interesting to see how the two former colleagues compare. In hindsight, yes Dems should've done that, but I guess no one ever thought we'd be at the point where the insurrection clown posse would willfully cause financial calamity to the country in order to score a political point. The sheer cynicism and nihilism is breathtaking. I'm sure AAPL will weather the storm eventually. In the short term, hold onto your hats. Meanwhile I was hoping to upgrade my series 4 Watch to the 7 soon after launch but it seems New Zealand isn't getting it until "later this year". Not sure if it's due to supply constraints or some strategic rollout schedule. Oh well, maybe it'll be a nice stocking stuffer.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Sept 28, 2021 20:13:53 GMT -8
Meanwhile I was hoping to upgrade my series 4 Watch to the 7 soon after launch but it seems New Zealand isn't getting it until "later this year". Not sure if it's due to supply constraints or some strategic rollout schedule. Oh well, maybe it'll be a nice stocking stuffer. In the US, Apple.com currently says the Watch is "Available later this fall" www.apple.com/apple-watch-series-7/Delays everywhere these days. This article on cars expands it from chips on to also steel, resin, and paint. www.cnn.com/2021/09/28/business/auto-industry-supply-chain-problems/index.htmlIt's interesting looking at car websites, trying to find the happy medium of getting people excited, but not pushing them too much since items might not be there yet. Toyota seems to have some Sienna stock now, but now their availability is skewing lower (maybe they can't get GPS or cell chips?). They have the 2022's now listed. None are available yet, but even so half of the colors are listed as not currently available, just to spec one out on the website. Things will get back to "normal" eventually, but some things lead while other ones lag.
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,102
|
Post by Dave on Sept 29, 2021 2:31:02 GMT -8
Things will get back to "normal" eventually, but some things lead while other ones lag. I fear that it has been so very long since I have experienced “normal” that I’m having trouble remembering what it was like. I also fear that what we are seeing today will become our new normal and we will no longer be shocked by what we are seeing.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
|
Post by 4aapl on Sept 29, 2021 9:43:21 GMT -8
Things will get back to "normal" eventually, but some things lead while other ones lag. I fear that it has been so very long since I have experienced “normal” that I’m having trouble remembering what it was like. I also fear that what we are seeing today will become our new normal and we will no longer be shocked by what we are seeing. By normal, I mean in the supply line, at all levels. I found that after an economic recession, some companies really lagged. One such was IGT, in the gaming (gambling) industry, where individuals had to feel flush enough to go gamble, and then casinos had to feel flush enough to buy more slot machines or systems. For individual things in the supply line, it often depends on how complex they are, and thus often dependent on other things. While lumber futures corrected, and local prices have come down dramatically, some of the things now are more complex like vehicles, needing paint and electronics, both with their own complexities and supply issues. As for other things, just as I wrote in March of '20 in the covid thread, one positive might be less spread of sickness in general if people start doing a better job of staying home when sick and keeping their kids home when sick. But that would be an improvement, not just a "getting back to the normal we had 2 years ago", though one might say it was the normal of 30 years ago or more.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
|
Post by JDSoCal on Sept 29, 2021 10:11:41 GMT -8
“ What does any of this have to do with Apple?” It’s all about the amount of money sloshing around in the stock market, boosting multiples. Why did AAPL’s multiple increase from 15 to 30+ as interest rates lowered? Was it a reevaluation of Apple’s prospects in the market? Or was it lots of free money sloshing around, pumping up multiples. I’ve been saying for months, the risk in owning AAPL is not about the company’s business success, it’s about the valuation of the stock. There’s no guarantee that AAPL will have a PE of 30 vs a PE of 20 in the future. Even if the company makes a lot more money, a contraction of the multiple could still send the stock down. Without disagreeing with anything that you said, I do believe that there is one more factor that comes into play for many of us old timers - dividends. Having held long enough to have benefitted from the 7-for-1 and 4-for-1 split, the quarterly dividends now provide a substantial annual windfall for us. While the stock price is prey to the vagaries of investor sentiment, the dividends are more closely tied to Apple’s financial performance and the willingness of the Board to share the benefits of same. While I sometimes feel that they could have increased the annual payouts at a slightly greater rate, it hasn’t ever decreased since we’ve held AAPL, and I certainly don’t expect it to any time soon. Hmm. Seems more like the Board is happy to enrich themselves. So funny to see these social justice warriors get richer and richer, while preaching and pandering and virtue signaling something quite different. Am I the only one who finds it obscene what Apple execs are paying themselves? For what innovation and how much growth exactly? The next iPhone will be 15 years from its inception. Where's the innovation to justify these salaries and bonuses? (my personal fave is a $20M bonus for Apple's general counsel). With that said, AAPL's valuation is high? To quote Thomas Sowell, "compared to what?" Chipotle? Tesla? Amazon? I personally love dividends, but Apple's isn't that high. I just have so much AAPL it pays me OK. But for the same dollar position, I could really kill it with a supermajor oil company or a cell carrier. It seems Apple wants to be able to raise its divy every year like IBM used to. Can't do that if you jump too high at once. But that's the market: I don't care what you've done; what are you going to do? So Apple is actually caring more for future investors than current ones. Jon Stewart was (and maybe still is) funny, but the rest of late night hosts are pandering and unfunny. I'd call them clowns (more like clones), but clowns are theoretically funny, and often somewhat menacing. The late night, PC, non-threatening, beta clones are there to simply reaffirm their urban liberal audiences' beliefs, who dutifully nod and clap like trained seals. To me, "funny" is something that makes you a little uncomfortable, maybe even hate yourself for laughing. That's why Norm Macdonald is such a loss. And good one Duckpins, blaming Republicans for Biden's fiscal buffoonery when Dems control the White House and both houses of Congress. Keep on screwing the pooch and blaming the party out of power. I can't wait for November 2022.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,426
|
Post by chinacat on Sept 29, 2021 14:43:23 GMT -8
Hmm. Seems more like the Board is happy to enrich themselves. So funny to see these social justice warriors get richer and richer, while preaching and pandering and virtue signaling something quite different. Am I the only one who finds it obscene what Apple execs are paying themselves? For what innovation and how much growth exactly? The next iPhone will be 15 years from its inception. Where's the innovation to justify these salaries and bonuses? So you see no innovation between the original iPhone and the iPhone 13? More importantly, you see no financial gain for stockholders?... I personally love dividends, but Apple's isn't that high. I just have so much AAPL it pays me OK. But for the same dollar position, I could really kill it with a supermajor oil company or a cell carrier. So why don't you?
|
|