chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Oct 9, 2021 6:54:05 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Oct 10, 2021 3:23:07 GMT -8
There are always macro issues that can dramatically affect stocks, often unexpectedly. This is a time when I am becoming concerned about the big picture once again, with the rumblings out of China over Taiwan. Surely they couldn't be so stupid as to start a war over an island that has been independent for many decades, could they? I don't think it will happen, but if there is a sudden shooting war expect the market to drop like a nuclear bomb from a B-52. Last year I saw Covid coming on big and sold all my stocks in March (2020), then bought back at a discount when the market started to shrug off the plague. I'm just advising to watch the world with wariness right now. My Costco toilet paper metric is blinking bright red.
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benoir
fire starter
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Posts: 1,318
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Post by benoir on Oct 10, 2021 5:38:26 GMT -8
IMO Tesla will only benefit from Apple entering the car market (I’m not making a case for Apple doing so, I haven’t formed an opinion as to whether or not this is a worthwhile venture for Apple and AAPL). Apple will provide real competition which will spur Tesla to innovate. Apple entering the market will also help to solidify this nascent market - also of benefit to Tesla. There’s no downside from Apple as a competitor. It was an okay weekend BTW…. Have a good week, back.
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Post by hledgard on Oct 10, 2021 6:16:23 GMT -8
I tried to send a personal message to chinacat, and the board replied that "all recipients have blocked you". ??
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Post by firestorm on Oct 10, 2021 7:49:57 GMT -8
I tried to send a personal message to chinacat, and the board replied that "all recipients have blocked you". ?? I know for a fact that I didn't block you.
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Post by nwjade on Oct 10, 2021 8:33:58 GMT -8
There are always macro issues that can dramatically affect stocks, often unexpectedly. This is a time when I am becoming concerned about the big picture once again, with the rumblings out of China over Taiwan. Surely they couldn't be so stupid as to start a war over an island that has been independent for many decades, could they? I don't think it will happen, but if there is a sudden shooting war expect the market to drop like a nuclear bomb from a B-52. Last year I saw Covid coming on big and sold all my stocks in March (2020), then bought back at a discount when the market started to shrug off the plague. I'm just advising to watch the world with wariness right now. My Costco toilet paper metric is blinking bright red. If I might ask, what day in March 2020 did you sell? It must of been well before the March 20 low if you were able to buy back in at a discount.
Just curious... as timing the market is so difficult.
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Post by firestorm on Oct 10, 2021 9:16:18 GMT -8
There are always macro issues that can dramatically affect stocks, often unexpectedly. This is a time when I am becoming concerned about the big picture once again, with the rumblings out of China over Taiwan. Surely they couldn't be so stupid as to start a war over an island that has been independent for many decades, could they? I don't think it will happen, but if there is a sudden shooting war expect the market to drop like a nuclear bomb from a B-52. Last year I saw Covid coming on big and sold all my stocks in March (2020), then bought back at a discount when the market started to shrug off the plague. I'm just advising to watch the world with wariness right now. My Costco toilet paper metric is blinking bright red. If I might ask, what day in March 2020 did you sell? It must of been well before the March 20 low if you were able to buy back in at a discount.
Just curious... as timing the market is so difficult.
You know, I don't remember, and it may have been February instead. But the timing was good enough that a broker from Charles Schwab called me to try and figure out how I had timed it so well–either that or he was fishing to learn if I had done some insider trading (I didn't, unlike some Republican senators who had been secretly briefed about the threat of this plague). Being from Washington State, I was just really alarmed early on by the wildfire spread of Covid in nursing homes of this state and how it was breaking out so quickly into the rest of the population. I remember telling my wife that this was serious enough that we were probably going to experience an extended family death from Covid. We didn't, but that was because all of us took it so seriously early on, with social distancing and masks.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,552
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Post by mark on Oct 10, 2021 14:49:25 GMT -8
There are always macro issues that can dramatically affect stocks, often unexpectedly. This is a time when I am becoming concerned about the big picture once again, with the rumblings out of China over Taiwan. Surely they couldn't be so stupid as to start a war over an island that has been independent for many decades, could they? I don't think it will happen, but if there is a sudden shooting war expect the market to drop like a nuclear bomb from a B-52. Last year I saw Covid coming on big and sold all my stocks in March (2020), then bought back at a discount when the market started to shrug off the plague. I'm just advising to watch the world with wariness right now. My Costco toilet paper metric is blinking bright red. I don't think they would "start a war". Instead they would simply take it over from within, or at least make it look like it is from within using the absolute force that totalitarian regimes always have at their disposal. I bet they have been inserting their own people all over Taiwan, government, military, industry, etc for decades now to get ready to "unify" the country. Just like they did with Hong Kong. I completely agree about macro issues that cause large moves overall, and that their is now a higher probability of such macro issues. But none of us can handle those reliably because it requires timing the markets.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 10, 2021 20:19:27 GMT -8
IMO Tesla will only benefit from Apple entering the car market (I’m not making a case for Apple doing so, I haven’t formed an opinion as to whether or not this is a worthwhile venture for Apple and AAPL). Apple will provide real competition which will spur Tesla to innovate. Apple entering the market will also help to solidify this nascent market - also of benefit to Tesla. There’s no downside from Apple as a competitor. I don't think it is that easy. One side is the actual company and product. Tesla is now at multiple price points, but it still skews high. And though if in an above average affluent area it might seem like they are everywhere, in some places they are missing. We drove across and down NV, across UT to Zion, down into AZ for the north rim of the grand canyon, back across to St George, and down to Valley of Fire an hour outside of Las Vegas. We finally saw a Tesla in Valley of Fire....with Florida plates. This is likely due to the areas, infrastructure, and driving habits. But it was such a contrast to what we've seen locally over the past year or two that it was notable. Apple has a tendency to aim for the high end and take a decent marketshare. If Apple took 30% of the "above $50k EV" market, Tesla wouldn't be doing as well even in an expanding market. The other side is the stock. I like to imagine that the P/E premium would be knocked down considerably if someone came in and took both marketshare and mindshare. We'll see what happens, and it's hard to take a guess with any sort of probability estimate. But there's risk to Tesla and its stock, from others and potentially from Apple, and it's non-zero.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 14, 2021 12:16:25 GMT -8
US political posts moved to the political post dumping ground, in the admin folder.
Keep it on topic.
Thanks
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