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Post by aaplsauce on Oct 28, 2021 22:11:18 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Oct 29, 2021 2:33:21 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Oct 29, 2021 2:41:09 GMT -8
Chinacat said:
You may have trust in Tim, but the the stock market doesn’t appear to.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Oct 29, 2021 2:49:27 GMT -8
My cynical expectation is a great quarter and good beats, and a drop back to 140 as a reward Thanks Bud, it looks like you may have hit the proverbial nail on it’s proverbial head. Hopefully the bounce back will be quick and high.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Oct 29, 2021 2:59:47 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Oct 29, 2021 3:51:32 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Oct 29, 2021 4:56:30 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
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Post by mark on Oct 29, 2021 5:27:00 GMT -8
I don't quite understand this statement. 4 quarters ago, $AAPL was trading at 115-120 (just glancing at a 1-year chart, didn't look it up). And now at 145-150 or so. That's a gain of about 25% or thereabouts, without including reinvested dividends. How is that "not being rewarded for loyalty"??‽!!!!!!
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Post by Lstream on Oct 29, 2021 5:42:25 GMT -8
I don't quite understand this statement. 4 quarters ago, $AAPL was trading at 115-120 (just glancing at a 1-year chart, didn't look it up). And now at 145-150 or so. That's a gain of about 25% or thereabouts, without including reinvested dividends. How is that "not being rewarded for loyalty"??‽!!!!!! I pretty much ignore what the cast of characters over there say. Signing up to a web site and playing pretend analyst doesn’t make what you have to say at all useful.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Oct 29, 2021 5:54:50 GMT -8
If there is one thing I’ve learned about investing in Apple, it’s that you have to be willing to play the long game. There are always periods where the Market reaction has one shaking one’s head. Mac Daily News has IDC: Apple shipped 50.4 million iPhones with ‘incredible’ 20.8% YOY growth. Numbers don’t lie, even if “expectations” sometimes do. Cult of Mac has Apple’s $6 billion blues and other earnings revelations. “Apple’s numbers from the September quarter are impressive, whatever Wall Street thinks. But the crazy thing is, these numbers don’t even include some of the company’s most popular recent products! The iPhone category, for example, saw fantastic 47% year-over-year growth during the quarter. But the iPhone 13 wasn’t really included. The iPhone 13 went on sale only a few days before the quarter’s books were closed.
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Post by bud777 on Oct 29, 2021 6:01:45 GMT -8
My cynical expectation is a great quarter and good beats, and a drop back to 140 as a reward Thanks Bud, it looks like you may have hit the proverbial nail on it’s proverbial head. Hopefully, the bounce-back will be quick and high. As Lily Tomlin once said, "No matter how cynical I try to be, I just can't keep up". I see this as a buying opportunity.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,868
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 29, 2021 7:20:08 GMT -8
Those charts are pretty amazing! Earnings, revenue, and iPhone revenue all took a big jump upward in the last 12 months, compared to the 4 years previous. It's not a small progression at all. I'd love for the stock to be blowing past expectations and on track for passing $200 or even $250 in the next 12 months. And it might happen, but with the big bump up last year, this is more the digestion phase. A 15+% annualized gain seems boring compared to the times we see ~100%, but it's still pretty darn good. And according to my quote in my signature, it looks like we hit around that 15%, while giving room for more if you managed to sell at the peak. I hadn't realized that expectations were so high. Those need to be managed....it's all part of the game. We've gone through several cycles there over the past 2 decades, with varying levels of markdown on estimates by Apple. Even if it seems to be spoon-feeding, it's needed. Just as AAPL Fans sometimes get overly excited in their expectations, analysts move that way too if left to their own guesstimates.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Oct 29, 2021 7:36:51 GMT -8
More than a year ago, 4aapl said “8-24-20 I give a 40+% probability on 15+% annualized returns for the next 2 years. For Sept expirations, using today's ($125.75), that's roughly ($146) for Sept '21”.
So I have to ask “What is next, O Sage of Cupertino?”.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Oct 29, 2021 7:44:50 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,868
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 29, 2021 7:46:00 GMT -8
More than a year ago, 4aapl said “8-24-20 I give a 40+% probability on 15+% annualized returns for the next 2 years. For Sept expirations, using today's ($125.75), that's roughly ($146) for Sept '21”. So I have to ask “What is next, O Sage of Cupertino?”. Just the rest of the wild-assed guess, sticking at 15%, "($169) for Sept '22". I'd love to see AAPL do better. Maybe a 20-25%, or even 30% increase, after this year that seems more like a digestion year. But if I manage my expectations to not be too high, then I'm happy. "Don't worry.....'bout a thing.....every little thing.....is gonna be alright" Off to a Cross Country race. Today is a good day to get away from the screen, and just not worry about the stock doing it's thing.
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Post by kpas1 on Oct 29, 2021 8:17:40 GMT -8
After all the hand-wringing, teeth-gnashing, etc., AAPL is green for the week (for now). Closed last Friday at 148.69. Now at 149.00. Yesterday's pop at the open and plop after hours is now just a blip. We are still in the 148-150 channel we have been in for the last 10 days. Looking for a steady rise over the next few months. $155 by March would be just fine by me.
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Post by firestorm on Oct 29, 2021 8:29:38 GMT -8
This is the most anemic negative reaction to a perceived miss that I can remember. It will be okay.
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Post by duckpins on Oct 29, 2021 10:28:08 GMT -8
"CNBC has Apple chip shortage will end, but U.S.-China supply chain ‘train wreck’ is coming." Watch Bloomberg. Not that I like bloomy or Fox Bus. but no one tries to create drama more than the mouth breathers who work for CNBC. Obviously Goldman makes money on volatility and those former and present GS workers don't hesitate to create fear and doubt whenever they can. A level headed talking head said Apple has a "bad" quarter once a year or so. That is the time to add new money.
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Post by bud777 on Oct 29, 2021 10:46:34 GMT -8
This is the most anemic negative reaction to a perceived miss that I can remember. It will be okay. After I have seen it happen 3 times in a row and have chosen to stay in the stock, I figure I don't have anyone but myself to blame for not having my expectations met. Why get angry about perceived injustice without taking responsibility for my perceptions? I see it one way, the majority of investors see it another way. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong, but it is what it is. Apple will always be a great company building great products. Whether it is a great investment or not, is out of their hands. I have said before that taking a large position in a stock is like joining a club. You are choosing to cast your lot with people who share a certain set of beliefs and attitudes. Certainly, investors in TESLA differ from investors in Berkshire-Hathaway. I think Apple is blessed/cursed with a large proportion of unsophisticated investors. Everyone wants a piece of the Apple. It is part of joining the cult. When there is dramatic news, real or managed, they react predictably. This makes it possible for the financial predators to make a few bucks. Maybe the past four quarters' reactions will shake the tree and send some back to Reddit or wherever they came from. This is not a stock for the faint-of-heart or the get-rich-quick. If you cannot live with cognitive dissonance and don't have the courage of your convictions, you are better off in an index fund. For those who can endure, let me echo firestorm...."It will be ok"
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Oct 29, 2021 13:08:06 GMT -8
Impressive bounce! Who would have thought the market reaction to a miss would be better than the market reaction to the last 3 quarters of beats.
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Post by Luckychoices on Oct 29, 2021 13:26:59 GMT -8
This is the most anemic negative reaction to a perceived miss that I can remember. It will be okay. After I have seen it happen 3 times in a row and have chosen to stay in the stock, I figure I don't have anyone but myself to blame for not having my expectations met. Why get angry about perceived injustice without taking responsibility for my perceptions? I see it one way, the majority of investors see it another way. Maybe they are right, maybe they are wrong, but it is what it is. I'm certainly biased, no question about that...but, IMO, the folks selling AAPL yesterday and today because AAPL was short of the analysts *expectations* for revenue, never intended to be long-term Apple investors. Apple will always be a great company building great products. Whether it is a great investment or not, is out of their hands. I have said before that taking a large position in a stock is like joining a club. You are choosing to cast your lot with people who share a certain set of beliefs and attitudes. Certainly, investors in TESLA differ from investors in Berkshire-Hathaway. I think Apple is blessed/cursed with a large proportion of unsophisticated investors. Everyone wants a piece of the Apple. It is part of joining the cult. When there is dramatic news, real or managed, they react predictably. This makes it possible for the financial predators to make a few bucks. I certainly wouldn't argue that they're *sophisticated* investors...since I don't consider them to really be *investors* at all. Investing in a company is not what they're doing, IMO. I doubt that any of the sellers were really in it for the long haul but, instead, they bought AAPL with the intention of timing their exit before a drop in share price. They're the same type of *investor* that has taken GameStop(GME) from $17.89 at the beginning of 2021 to a close of $183.51 today_ a YTD gain of $165.82 (937.4%). AAPL, meanwhile has gone from $132.05 to $149.81, a YTD gain of $17.76(13.4%). Are the people who bought, and are buying GME investors? Or are they merely trying to time the market? Some of them made a tremendous amount of money with GME...while others, probably the majority, did not. Maybe the past four quarters' reactions will shake the tree and send some back to Reddit or wherever they came from. This is not a stock for the faint-of-heart or the get-rich-quick. If you cannot live with cognitive dissonance and don't have the courage of your convictions, you are better off in an index fund.Agreed. Although, except for a very few time periods, the last 20+ years of holding AAPL has been relatively painless...and remarkably rewarding. For those who can endure, let me echo firestorm...."It will be ok" Absolutely agree 100% with both you and firestorm...it will be OK. 😎
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Oct 29, 2021 14:09:32 GMT -8
This is the most anemic negative reaction to a perceived miss that I can remember. It will be okay. Yahbut, it was options expiry today, and more puts than calls at 149 and 148. Let's see what happens on Monday.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,868
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Post by 4aapl on Oct 29, 2021 18:41:06 GMT -8
I didn't see this link posted, of PED's followup on how analysts and independents did. www.ped30.com/2021/10/29/apple-best-worst-analysts-q42021/In short, no independent undercut the actual revenue or EPS. For analysts, only one under guessed the revenue, and 3 the EPS. In looking at the quarter by itself, looking at YOY numbers, I think Apple did pretty well. But once compared to the estimates PED has in his spreadsheet, things don't look nearly as good. We'll see how next week goes. Judging by today, it might be ok. If AAPL instead dips, I think there will be more than a few scooping up shares (ok, it's balanced)...meaning I don't see it dipping too far. While surprises happen, consumerism is looking strong right now, and demand is high.
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