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Post by aaplsauce on Nov 1, 2021 21:59:35 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 2, 2021 5:28:54 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 2, 2021 8:49:22 GMT -8
So Pete Najarian, Mr Unusual Options Activity guy was on CNBC yesterday highlighting a 50,000 11/6 152 AAPL contracts buy. His shtick is that when large call contract purchases are made, the implication is that somebody knows something. Of course, we little people are used to calls hurting AAPL, not helping.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2021 9:08:23 GMT -8
So Pete Najarian, Mr Unusual Options Activity guy was on CNBC yesterday highlighting a 50,000 11/6 152 AAPL contracts buy. His shtick is that when large call contract purchases are made, the implication is that somebody knows something. Of course, we little people are used to calls hurting AAPL, not helping. I could see a big player, whether a large fund or an agent for Apple, picking up a chunk of options to take advantage of the price gain while picking up a large enough chunk to move the market, while also potentially a way to lock in a purchase. So if planning on picking up 10-20M shares, purchase these for 5M of it. If you get all of your shares for less, great. Then sell the options right away and probably make a little on them. But if the stock takes off, you have part of your purchase there at 152.5 plus your premium. It's insurance, but insurance to the upside in case your purchases push the stock too much. Of course that's just a wild guess. Another is the TSLA vs AAPL trade for money flow. I'm sure someone is doing it, but the question is if it's enough to move either of the stocks. Nice to see a bump up today.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Nov 2, 2021 9:25:09 GMT -8
Looks like a nice day for a run. Run AAPL, run.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Nov 2, 2021 9:53:53 GMT -8
So Pete Najarian, Mr Unusual Options Activity guy was on CNBC yesterday highlighting a 50,000 11/6 152 AAPL contracts buy. His shtick is that when large call contract purchases are made, the implication is that somebody knows something. Of course, we little people are used to calls hurting AAPL, not helping. These things (options implying that someone "knows something") are almost always nonsense. Sure there are rare cases in which there truly is some insider trading going on ... and sometimes they get caught, sometimes not. But since options are a zero-sum game, if someone managed a single trade of 50,000 contracts, THERE WAS SOMEONE ELSE WHO SOLD HIM THOSE CONTRACTS! If he slowly accumulated a position, then perhaps .... but you never see news of "so and so purchased 500 contracts on Tuesday morning of last week ... and then 1000 contracts on Tuesday afternoon ... and then 750 contracts on Wednesday ... and then 2000 contracts on Friday ... etc".
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 2, 2021 10:20:52 GMT -8
Another is the TSLA vs AAPL trade for money flow. I'm sure someone is doing it, but the question is if it's enough to move either of the stocks. Nice to see a bump up today. Yes I was thinking this too this week as TSLA popped (fortunately I have some shares in a Roth). Then Tesla announced a recall of 10,000 cars today, and the trade reversed, or so the theory goes.
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Post by duckpins on Nov 2, 2021 10:40:19 GMT -8
China stocks are still flopping around down at the bottom. YINN is pretty low if you want to buy some China for your kitchen. I hope you all bought some TPOR! Trading like a hot TSLA>
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 2, 2021 10:42:05 GMT -8
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Post by firestorm on Nov 2, 2021 10:51:06 GMT -8
Another is the TSLA vs AAPL trade for money flow. I'm sure someone is doing it, but the question is if it's enough to move either of the stocks. Nice to see a bump up today. Yes I was thinking this too this week as TSLA popped (fortunately I have some shares in a Roth). Then Tesla announced a recall of 10,000 cars today, and the trade reversed, or so the theory goes. There was also the matter of Musk saying that the deal with Hertz had not yet been signed. He moves the stock in mysterious ways. In any event, it still amazes me that the market shook off the somewhat disappointing Apple earnings so easily.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2021 13:46:32 GMT -8
Yes I was thinking this too this week as TSLA popped (fortunately I have some shares in a Roth). Then Tesla announced a recall of 10,000 cars today, and the trade reversed, or so the theory goes. There was also the matter of Musk saying that the deal with Hertz had not yet been signed. He moves the stock in mysterious ways. In any event, it still amazes me that the market shook off the somewhat disappointing Apple earnings so easily. That, and Musk reminding people that they are selling every Tesla they can make, so additional orders don't matter much. On Apple earnings, they weren't bad. YOY, they were pretty amazing. A chip shortage might be to blame on $6B missed/delayed revenue, but even without it revenue and earnings were very good or even great. It's only in comparison to estimates, by analysts and independents, that things didn't look great. But do the math on YOY gains, or look at the graphs in PED's article, and things are looking pretty good. So where is the problem? I think the market realizes that.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 2, 2021 14:25:30 GMT -8
On Apple earnings, they weren't bad. YOY, they were pretty amazing. A chip shortage might be to blame on $6B missed/delayed revenue, but even without it revenue and earnings were very good or even great. It's only in comparison to estimates, by analysts and independents, that things didn't look great. But do the math on YOY gains, or look at the graphs in PED's article, and things are looking pretty good. So where is the problem? I think the market realizes that. Yes, and I think that many, or even most, of those analysts and independents, also realize that a large percentage of the “missing” revenue is only delayed, not lost. The caveat is that excellent results in the succeeding quarters of 2021 did not move AAPL as much as might have been expected.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 2, 2021 15:44:00 GMT -8
Yes I was thinking this too this week as TSLA popped (fortunately I have some shares in a Roth). Then Tesla announced a recall of 10,000 cars today, and the trade reversed, or so the theory goes. There was also the matter of Musk saying that the deal with Hertz had not yet been signed. He moves the stock in mysterious ways This is but one of the reasons I wouldn't want Musk as Apple CEO. I think Musk would be a lot more fun to have a beer with than Cook, but he seems like he's stuck in adolescence. I have my concerns about Cook, but Cook seems highly unlikely to make some ill-advised tweet that's going to sink the stock. Musk acts like Tesla is still privately held. Their cultures are always more interesting. I will say this: If Musk could get Apple's PE to match or exceed its stock price, as TSLA is currently doing, I'd hand him the keys to Apple Park in a second! But obviously that wouldn't be based on fundamentals.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 2, 2021 18:39:34 GMT -8
There was also the matter of Musk saying that the deal with Hertz had not yet been signed. He moves the stock in mysterious ways This is but one of the reasons I wouldn't want Musk as Apple CEO. I think Musk would be a lot more fun to have a beer with than Cook, but he seems like he's stuck in adolescence. I have my concerns about Cook, but Cook seems highly unlikely to make some ill-advised tweet that's going to sink the stock. Musk acts like Tesla is still privately held. Their cultures are always more interesting. I will say this: If Musk could get Apple's PE to match or exceed its stock price, as TSLA is currently doing, I'd hand him the keys to Apple Park in a second! But obviously that wouldn't be based on fundamentals. I didn't follow SJ that closely in his first stint at Apple, at least in real time, but reading a few books about the time, it could be that Musk isn't too far off of what Steve would do in the same situation. There's a learning and growing curve. I'm sure it's crazy, both pushing the boundaries of innovation while also making huge sums of money, beyond your wildest dreams. But, just like in other new experiences, you have to learn the boundaries. Steve, in his second time at Apple, seems to have been much different than his first time, with Next and then Pixar under his belt, while also having time to reflect. Maybe Musk will be able to handle it. It is impressive with what he has pushed forward, and I hope he manages it. But it could be like Steve, where at some point he needs some sort of setback to put things into perspective and help him settle down in some aspects, even if just a little.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Nov 3, 2021 0:37:00 GMT -8
This is but one of the reasons I wouldn't want Musk as Apple CEO. I think Musk would be a lot more fun to have a beer with than Cook, but he seems like he's stuck in adolescence. I have my concerns about Cook, but Cook seems highly unlikely to make some ill-advised tweet that's going to sink the stock. Musk acts like Tesla is still privately held. Their cultures are always more interesting. I will say this: If Musk could get Apple's PE to match or exceed its stock price, as TSLA is currently doing, I'd hand him the keys to Apple Park in a second! But obviously that wouldn't be based on fundamentals. I didn't follow SJ that closely in his first stint at Apple, at least in real time, but reading a few books about the time, it could be that Musk isn't too far off of what Steve would do in the same situation. There's a learning and growing curve. I'm sure it's crazy, both pushing the boundaries of innovation while also making huge sums of money, beyond your wildest dreams. But, just like in other new experiences, you have to learn the boundaries. Steve, in his second time at Apple, seems to have been much different than his first time, with Next and then Pixar under his belt, while also having time to reflect. Maybe Musk will be able to handle it. It is impressive with what he has pushed forward, and I hope he manages it. But it could be like Steve, where at some point he needs some sort of setback to put things into perspective and help him settle down in some aspects, even if just a little. I’ve often thought that. Had Steve Jobs never gone through his desert times he would have never been as successful as he was later.
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