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Post by aaplsauce on Nov 14, 2021 22:21:56 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 15, 2021 3:07:57 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 15, 2021 3:18:19 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 15, 2021 3:32:53 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Nov 15, 2021 6:17:43 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Nov 15, 2021 10:42:42 GMT -8
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ono
Member
posted
Posts: 555
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Post by ono on Nov 15, 2021 11:29:15 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 15, 2021 13:32:07 GMT -8
Welcome to Stock Market Investing, 2021!! I happened to see this online: Beginner Investors: How to Pick StocksHere are seven things an investor should consider when picking stocks:1. Trends in earnings growth. 2. Company strength relative to its peers. 3. Debt-to-equity ratio in line with industry norms. 4. Price-earnings ratio can help provide market value. 5. How the company treats dividends. 6. Effectiveness of executive leadership. 7. Long-term strength and stability. I wonder how many if *any* investors are using those 7 specific considerations? 😂 Volume: 51,932,266 Volume: 62,701,048 Volume: 29,920,206,848
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 15, 2021 14:07:40 GMT -8
For those who don't believe in Technical Analysis and only believe in fundamentals, how do you explain the struggles around 150 in the last couple weeks?
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 325
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Post by crispin on Nov 15, 2021 16:02:29 GMT -8
I have no idea when the crypto bubble will burst, but when it does I'm afraid it'll be very ugly for a lot of people who can least afford it. I've been in countless conversations with younger friends who have scraped together $5k or $10k and want to invest smartly, and almost all of them have been steered toward crypto by their peers! It's virtually impossible for stocks to compete with those imagined stratospheric returns. To me it's an obvious Ponzi scheme waiting to implode but it seems the FOMO is irresistible for many. Welcome to Stock Market Investing, 2021!! I happened to see this online: Beginner Investors: How to Pick StocksHere are seven things an investor should consider when picking stocks:1. Trends in earnings growth. 2. Company strength relative to its peers. 3. Debt-to-equity ratio in line with industry norms. 4. Price-earnings ratio can help provide market value. 5. How the company treats dividends. 6. Effectiveness of executive leadership. 7. Long-term strength and stability. I wonder how many if *any* investors are using those 7 specific considerations? 😂 View AttachmentVolume: 51,932,266 View AttachmentVolume: 62,701,048 View AttachmentVolume: 29,920,206,848
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 15, 2021 17:17:23 GMT -8
For those who don't believe in Technical Analysis and only believe in fundamentals, how do you explain the struggles around 150 in the last couple weeks? I don't know nearly enough about Technical Analysis to ever discount it. But, I'd be quite surprised if could explain why people are so convinced RIVN is a young TSLA. I mean, it may very well be...but based on what? Personally, with absolutely no evidence to back it up, I feel that the rush to buy cryptocurrency and stocks like RIVN can't help but take investment money from traditional stocks like AAPL. My younger son, who works for Amazon and owns both AMZN and AAPL, bought 50 shares of RIVN last week. The following is a link to an article from February of this year: Bitcoin hits another record. Here’s how much you’d have if you invested $100 in 2009=> Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital and a known cryptocurrency bull, in November said he sees bitcoin rising to $55,000 or $60,000 at the end of 2021 as it continues to replace gold. Tyler Winklevoss, another bitcoin bull and co-founder of crypto-exchange Gemini, said he could see the asset reaching $500,000 per coin one day.
=> Still, bitcoin has been on an incredible trajectory that’s outpaced other investments. So far in 2021 alone, the cryptocurrency has surged more than 63%, after quadrupling in value in 2020.================== So, bitcoin *quadrupled in 2020*...and increased an additional 63% by mid-February of this year? Who needs to consider Technical Analysis *or* Fundamentals when they can buy into a sure thing like that? /s
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 15, 2021 18:15:16 GMT -8
I have no idea when the crypto bubble will burst, but when it does I'm afraid it'll be very ugly for a lot of people who can least afford it. I've been in countless conversations with younger friends who have scraped together $5k or $10k and want to invest smartly, and almost all of them have been steered toward crypto by their peers! It's virtually impossible for stocks to compete with those imagined stratospheric returns. To me it's an obvious Ponzi scheme waiting to implode but it seems the FOMO is irresistible for many. It's like tech stocks in 1999, or real estate in 2006. It's easy to see, from an outside prospective, that something is going on that is unsustainable. But, it's hard to know exactly when the music will end. In the run-up to 1929, and the tulip mania (and South Sea, and Mississippi), the same thing was said to happen (per "Manias, Panics, and the Madness of Crowds", among others). One characteristic is people getting out when realizing there is a mania, but then eventually getting back in since it seems to keep flowing, and hence FOMO. I remember sorta doing this in 2000, lowering my exposure for the Y2k, a bit due to the wall of worry the there might be enough to it that there could be a drop, but then getting a bit back in after that. Bitcoin is somewhat interesting. When reading about the latest Apple 1 values, I put it together. It's a combination of things. Artwork might just have one original. Baseball cards could have many. A double stamped coin might have few. There's rarity and ownership, but it comes down to assigning some value to something, and feeling that others have value to it too. Stability helps, but isn't a given. Heck, stocks fit in there too, with some being old consistents, while others being hyped up monsters that may or may not ever earn a dime (in the underlying company). Bitcoin has value, as long as many continue to give it value. The same is true with the dollar, a block of gold, a chunk of diamond, or a peso. Same with a Furby, a Cabage Patch Kid, a baseball card, or any collectable, especially one of limited supply. What is the value of a penny, if it happens to be a messed up double stamped one, or some other rarity? How do you find the value of anything, other than supply and demand? But does one thing have more or less value, depending on if it is backed by a government, and stated as "Legal Tender"? But, things that are hyped up as a "get rich quick scheme" also tend to be less stable. It's just a matter of if it continues going up, or heads down. It rhymes a lot with the tech bubble. It's all good, until it isn't.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 15, 2021 18:45:52 GMT -8
The following is a link to an article from February of this year: Bitcoin hits another record. Here’s how much you’d have if you invested $100 in 2009=> Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Digital and a known cryptocurrency bull, in November said he sees bitcoin rising to $55,000 or $60,000 at the end of 2021 as it continues to replace gold. Tyler Winklevoss, another bitcoin bull and co-founder of crypto-exchange Gemini, said he could see the asset reaching $500,000 per coin one day.
=> Still, bitcoin has been on an incredible trajectory that’s outpaced other investments. So far in 2021 alone, the cryptocurrency has surged more than 63%, after quadrupling in value in 2020.================== So, bitcoin *quadrupled in 2020*...and increased an additional 63% by mid-February of this year? Who needs to consider Technical Analysis *or* Fundamentals when they can buy into a sure thing like that? /s Where is all the talk of "hyperbolic" growth?
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 15, 2021 21:46:42 GMT -8
OK, maybe AAPL didn't surge all that much during the normal market day...but just look at what it did after hours. Suck it, RIVN!! 😂
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Nov 16, 2021 3:36:19 GMT -8
I have no idea when the crypto bubble will burst, but when it does I'm afraid it'll be very ugly for a lot of people who can least afford it. I've been in countless conversations with younger friends who have scraped together $5k or $10k and want to invest smartly, and almost all of them have been steered toward crypto by their peers! It's virtually impossible for stocks to compete with those imagined stratospheric returns. To me it's an obvious Ponzi scheme waiting to implode but it seems the FOMO is irresistible for many. It's like tech stocks in 1999, or real estate in 2006. It's easy to see, from an outside prospective, that something is going on that is unsustainable. But, it's hard to know exactly when the music will end. In the run-up to 1929, and the tulip mania (and South Sea, and Mississippi), the same thing was said to happen (per "Manias, Panics, and the Madness of Crowds", among others). One characteristic is people getting out when realizing there is a mania, but then eventually getting back in since it seems to keep flowing, and hence FOMO. I remember sorta doing this in 2000, lowering my exposure for the Y2k, a bit due to the wall of worry the there might be enough to it that there could be a drop, but then getting a bit back in after that. Bitcoin is somewhat interesting. When reading about the latest Apple 1 values, I put it together. It's a combination of things. Artwork might just have one original. Baseball cards could have many. A double stamped coin might have few. There's rarity and ownership, but it comes down to assigning some value to something, and feeling that others have value to it too. Stability helps, but isn't a given. Heck, stocks fit in there too, with some being old consistents, while others being hyped up monsters that may or may not ever earn a dime (in the underlying company). Bitcoin has value, as long as many continue to give it value. The same is true with the dollar, a block of gold, a chunk of diamond, or a peso. Same with a Furby, a Cabage Patch Kid, a baseball card, or any collectable, especially one of limited supply. What is the value of a penny, if it happens to be a messed up double stamped one, or some other rarity? How do you find the value of anything, other than supply and demand? But does one thing have more or less value, depending on if it is backed by a government, and stated as "Legal Tender"? But, things that are hyped up as a "get rich quick scheme" also tend to be less stable. It's just a matter of if it continues going up, or heads down. It rhymes a lot with the tech bubble. It's all good, until it isn't. I agree 4aapl, that something is only worth what someone is willing to pay to own it. And at this moment it appears that few people are willing to pay the price to own AAPL. And if you factor in inflation the argument for owning AAPL looks even less appealing. We have been in one of the longest running bull markets in history that can not continue forever, that is a fact. And when it crashes it will not matter who your invested in because it will touch us all. Welcome to investing. No risk = no reward.
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Post by macster on Nov 16, 2021 7:24:42 GMT -8
Crypto to me is the buying and selling of an imaginary nothing. Like Trading snake oil. Yes I DONT GET IT and I don’t care.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
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Post by mark on Nov 16, 2021 9:13:17 GMT -8
It's like tech stocks in 1999, or real estate in 2006. It's easy to see, from an outside prospective, that something is going on that is unsustainable. But, it's hard to know exactly when the music will end. In the run-up to 1929, and the tulip mania (and South Sea, and Mississippi), the same thing was said to happen (per "Manias, Panics, and the Madness of Crowds", among others). One characteristic is people getting out when realizing there is a mania, but then eventually getting back in since it seems to keep flowing, and hence FOMO. I remember sorta doing this in 2000, lowering my exposure for the Y2k, a bit due to the wall of worry the there might be enough to it that there could be a drop, but then getting a bit back in after that. Bitcoin is somewhat interesting. When reading about the latest Apple 1 values, I put it together. It's a combination of things. Artwork might just have one original. Baseball cards could have many. A double stamped coin might have few. There's rarity and ownership, but it comes down to assigning some value to something, and feeling that others have value to it too. Stability helps, but isn't a given. Heck, stocks fit in there too, with some being old consistents, while others being hyped up monsters that may or may not ever earn a dime (in the underlying company). Bitcoin has value, as long as many continue to give it value. The same is true with the dollar, a block of gold, a chunk of diamond, or a peso. Same with a Furby, a Cabage Patch Kid, a baseball card, or any collectable, especially one of limited supply. What is the value of a penny, if it happens to be a messed up double stamped one, or some other rarity? How do you find the value of anything, other than supply and demand? But does one thing have more or less value, depending on if it is backed by a government, and stated as "Legal Tender"? But, things that are hyped up as a "get rich quick scheme" also tend to be less stable. It's just a matter of if it continues going up, or heads down. It rhymes a lot with the tech bubble. It's all good, until it isn't. I agree 4aapl, that something is only worth what someone is willing to pay to own it. And at this moment it appears that few people are willing to pay the price to own AAPL. And if you factor in inflation the argument for owning AAPL looks even less appealing. We have been in one of the longest running bull markets in history that can not continue forever, that is a fact. And when it crashes it will not matter who your invested in because it will touch us all. Welcome to investing. No risk = no reward. I think it will matter! I'm guessing that if you have two stocks with similar growth levels, one of which has a P/E of 30, and the other that has a P/E of 300, the latter will probably fall more than the former in a bear market caused by exogenous events (inflation, war, financial crisis, pandemic, etc). It doesn't always happen this way, but the probability is higher that it will.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 16, 2021 9:32:19 GMT -8
I agree 4aapl, that something is only worth what someone is willing to pay to own it. And at this moment it appears that few people are willing to pay the price to own AAPL. And if you factor in inflation the argument for owning AAPL looks even less appealing. We have been in one of the longest running bull markets in history that can not continue forever, that is a fact. And when it crashes it will not matter who your invested in because it will touch us all. Welcome to investing. No risk = no reward. I think it will matter! I'm guessing that if you have two stocks with similar growth levels, one of which has a P/E of 30, and the other that has a P/E of 300, the latter will probably fall more than the former in a bear market caused by exogenous events (inflation, war, financial crisis, pandemic, etc). It doesn't always happen this way, but the probability is higher that it will. That is always the hope, that there will be some sort of logic, and that on a market wide drop there will be a preference for quality and earnings. AAPL often takes more of a hit than the market indexes, but I tend to think the really speculative plays out there will, or at least should, take a bigger hit. It's always interesting to look back at 2000/2001, for comparison.
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