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Post by aaplsauce on Nov 16, 2021 22:07:18 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Nov 17, 2021 6:07:01 GMT -8
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Post by benoir on Nov 17, 2021 6:37:04 GMT -8
Whoooosh!
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Post by benoir on Nov 17, 2021 6:47:00 GMT -8
Stick around artman.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 17, 2021 6:54:25 GMT -8
No offense, but the fact that we are excited by a 1% (or less) pop to open, says all one needs to know about the last six months.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 17, 2021 7:49:00 GMT -8
No offense, but the fact that we are excited by a 1% (or less) pop to open, says all one needs to know about the last six months. 1% a day, keeps the doctor away If we could bank on 1% a day, we'd be sitting pretty. (1+0.01)^250=12.03, so an annualized gain of 1100%. Now that would be something to show up the likes of TSLA! 10-20% a year seems boring, but it stacks up over time. But it also isn't consistent, so making 50% one year, it might only make 5% the next 67->119 is a 78% gain (Nov '19 to Nov '20) 119->151 is a 27% gain (Nov '20 to Nov '21) 46->67 was a 46% gain for Nov '18 to Nov '19. But the year before, from 43 to 46, was much flatter, a mere 7%. That probably included dividends, as I'm just grabbing rough numbers off of Yahoo's charts. The last 5 years average out to an annualized rate of 39%! That can't go on forever, but our current 27% isn't too much off of that, even if there are YOY comparisons where 12 month periods are flat. Just like the analysts, sometimes we get too worried about the YOY compares.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Nov 17, 2021 8:02:52 GMT -8
No offense, but the fact that we are excited by a 1% (or less) pop to open, says all one needs to know about the last six months. 1% a day, keeps the doctor away If we could bank on 1% a day, we'd be sitting pretty. Quite a difference between 1% to open a single day and 1% every day for however long. Don’t get me wrong, 1% to open is not bad, but how long are we going to circle around $150, especially after consistently excellent earnings through the year? Thank goodness for the dividends.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 17, 2021 8:08:52 GMT -8
What a difference a day makes!
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Post by CdnPhoto on Nov 17, 2021 8:12:24 GMT -8
FOMO kicking in.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 17, 2021 8:24:24 GMT -8
Wow, I hope that all you optimists are right, but let’s see where we are at the end of the day and/or week. The daily high first topped $150 on August 16…three months ago.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Nov 17, 2021 8:39:50 GMT -8
, I've tinkered around over the years secured WiFi tunneled into the original iPhone to get it to work on T-mobile, upgraded MacBook Pros & Macs bigger hard drives, more RAM, replacing optical drives with SSD's. Once found a mystery drive inside a friends MacBook Pro where the optical Drive should have been - they had no idea how it got in there nor was it mounting on the Desktop. Might be fun to try some more ambitious projects!
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 17, 2021 9:28:35 GMT -8
The daily high first topped $150 on August 16…three months ago. That's the comparison, that is easy to make, but sets yourself up for unneeded worry. With a big company like Apple, meaning with earnings and growth, it's more like building a skyscraper. Just because material, or even the first worker, makes it to floor 150, doesn't mean that it's done and solid. Even if they start in on floors 151-154, floor 150 might not be solid for a while. OTOH, as long as that growth and earnings keep happening, you know that floor 150 is going to be solid at some point. The realist can look around at other "buildings", and see how some stalled out for a while, and some never were finished. Think MSFT, which had a long flat period (10 years?), though it's stock is hitting on all cylinders lately. But there are others that never made it back. That's why it's important to keep an eye on earnings and growth, and even guessing at it into the future in hopes of seeing a problem before others do and the stock has retreated. That's the whole gaming of it, trying to see what isn't there yet, but might be there in the future, especially while trying to figure out which of those rumors have enough fact to them to matter. Or, you just sit back, after looking and the direction of the company and value of the team and employees, and feel that they will do a good job of overcoming obstacles, and that the day to day matters less. Week to week. Month to month? And sometimes, when looking at the varying stock performance over the past 5 years, even year to year. I'm Lucky to not have to worry about the shorter terms with AAPL, instead sitting back and trusting Apple. But there still is enough worry, and a little bit of sport to it, to watch AAPL on the weekly, daily, hourly, or even by the minute and second. Time to get outside and enjoy fall, before the snow starts sticking for the season.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 17, 2021 9:51:16 GMT -8
, I've tinkered around over the years secured WiFi tunneled into the original iPhone to get it to work on T-mobile, upgraded MacBook Pros & Macs bigger hard drives, more RAM, replacing optical drives with SSD's. Once found a mystery drive inside a friends MacBook Pro where the optical Drive should have been - they had no idea how it got in there nor was it mounting on the Desktop. Might be fun to try some more ambitious projects! I've now replaced around 5 iPhone screens, 2 batteries, and a lightning port. There's nothing complicated about them, though the use of glue in some places makes things tougher, and the small screws and cables make them delicate and frankly hard to see with my aging eyes. They also use a variety of screw sizes and types. But if opening this to the masses, while warning them about it, maybe things will standardize a little bit. (A security bit torx head (size 5 on the bottom of a Mac Mini), a pentalope drive, a 3 vaned drive....not to mention other uses in the industry, like a splined carb adjuster screw on a chainsaw. It all doesn't matter much once you can buy the tools at harbor freight or amazon. But it makes things annoying, getting you to use vise grips or a flathead screwdriver instead. And it can be a pain, like how a guy at pick-n-pull had to ask people for a torx driver yesterday) Nearly 20 years ago Apple tried this, with maybe the second rev of the post-lampshade iMacs. According to a friend in AppleCare, they were having a lot more issues of people screwing things up. After that the iMacs were tougher to open again, changing to the one where you needed a couple bent credit cards to undo the hidden latches. FWIW, while I like the challenge, each time I've replaced screens on the iPhone I've told myself I wouldn't do it again. But really the main thing is I need to remember to do it in a place that is easy to find any tiny screws that will fall, and that has excessive light even if the sun goes down. Then take my time. I've presumably only messed things up once, ripping a screen cable when we continued to have problems while replacing multiple things at once, though I also lost a screw, which I found inside a year or two later when replacing the screen again. The lightning port was a real pain because there were so many steps, and then it still didn't work perfectly. I seem to remember is was 50 or 58 steps, and then you had to do them all again to put it back together. But the huge huge plus here is Apple giving a way for end users to even get original parts. This is huge! There should be no reason to have to decide which iPhone screen with over 4.5 stars to get on Amazon, only to be let down by the color or quality not quite being there. Apple's might be more expensive, but at least at that point you'll have a known comparison of price vs potential quality. Thanks Apple! (even though you should have done this a long time ago)
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mark
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Post by mark on Nov 17, 2021 10:00:07 GMT -8
No offense, but the fact that we are excited by a 1% (or less) pop to open, says all one needs to know about the last six months. Yes, it's absolutely horrible! In the last 6 months we're only up from 125 to 153, or 22.4% in half a year.
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Post by Luckychoices on Nov 17, 2021 10:20:39 GMT -8
No offense, but the fact that we are excited by a 1% (or less) pop to open, says all one needs to know about the last six months. Yes, it's absolutely horrible! In the last 6 months we're only up from 125 to 153, or 22.4% in half a year. OK, stop bringing logic into these worrisome times, Mark. When bitcoin quadrupled in 2020, *that* should have been enough to let us know we're invested in a dead stock/company. And now, it's not only bitcoin and TSLA, but RIVN that's kicking butt. Update: OK, for RIVN...not so much butt kicking today. 😂
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Nov 17, 2021 10:39:40 GMT -8
No offense, but the fact that we are excited by a 1% (or less) pop to open, says all one needs to know about the last six months. Yes, it's absolutely horrible! In the last 6 months we're only up from 125 to 153, or 22.4% in half a year. Not bad but the 6 month performance is still slightly less than the NASDAQ as a whole. And in the 1 yr timeframe, AAPL is still underperforming not just NASDAQ but also the S&P500. Hopefully that changes in the next couple months!
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Post by duckpins on Nov 17, 2021 11:26:19 GMT -8
Looks like a new high may be coming by next week. Think where the market would be without all the drain into bit coin. Now they are naming Staples center the Crypto or something. This might be bookends with the tulips when it crashes. I just had a friend tell me it was safer than regular money. I wonder how many see it that way? Jon Stewart? Any clue to what is going on there on Apple TV? Liked Invasion so far. Maybe that is a sign of things to come, very Netflix like with slow plot build.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Nov 17, 2021 11:35:44 GMT -8
No offense, but the fact that we are excited by a 1% (or less) pop to open, says all one needs to know about the last six months. Yes, it's absolutely horrible! In the last 6 months we're only up from 125 to 153, or 22.4% in half a year. OK, my timeframe was an exaggeration, but... The first close above $150 was $152.90 on August 30. Since that time, the highest close was $156.46 on September 6, despite an outstanding earnings report, in the face of world-wide delays in supply channels. Maybe it's just me, but I have found the bouncing around $150 for the past two and a half months to be disappointing, particularly in the face of exceedingly well-received product releases. I, too, recently published a longer-term perspective on AAPL price growth, which like yours was more encouraging. But let us recall that the stock split to $125 was August 31, 2020. So the growth numbers for the past 14.5 months are the same as the ones you quote for the past 6 months. Personally, I feel that Apple product releases (M-series chips have completely changed the game), along with the masterful job by Tim Cook managing the supply chain challenges, should be reflected in a higher price than AAPL's current number. BWDIK
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Post by nwjade on Nov 17, 2021 12:51:12 GMT -8
Yes, it's absolutely horrible! In the last 6 months we're only up from 125 to 153, or 22.4% in half a year. Not bad but the 6 month performance is still slightly less than the NASDAQ as a whole. And in the 1 yr timeframe, AAPL is still underperforming not just NASDAQ but also the S&P500. Hopefully that changes in the next couple months! Zooming out the time frame, aapl has marched massively upward comparing it to when it was at $150 pre 4:1 split. That puts it back to mid January 2019 during the market meltdown regarding the feds interest rate missteps and worries over tariff wars. Some panelists on CNBC were calling for aapl to fall further and wouldn't be buyers at $150. Here we are today a couple months sly of three years later and aapl is 4 X 37.50 = $150+ Sweet...
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 17, 2021 13:42:08 GMT -8
The middle-range investors are looking 3-6 months ahead, not 1-4 months behind.
It's good to have good earnings, or even great to have great earnings. But all that a lot of the non-longterm investors are looking for is that the earnings weren't bad.
Outlook and future expectations are all that matter, for the middle term people.
The short term people are trying to outguess each other, or play off momentum of the middle term people.
That leaves the long term investors. Did you buy any more shares due to earnings results? Did anyone here? I bought a sizable chunk sometime in the last month or two I think, but that was to take advantage of a dip and offset some Jan 135 calls, and it wasn't based on earnings.
If none of the groups of investors are buying due to earnings coming out, then how do they matter for the stock price? IMO it helps solidify the base by taking away some risk. I'd like for it to be a positive thing, since I still look at the P/E while figuring it has some useful function. But it sure seems that, at least around now in the economic cycle, that everyone is either locked in, focused on future earnings (including future P/E), or trading by the day or microsecond on things other than valuation. And if that is true, then having solid/good/great earnings just doesn't move the needle.
...at least that's my justification on it, so I don't feel bad when Apple announces continued greatness, but AAPL just doesn't move up while more speculative positions out there are speeding onward.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Nov 17, 2021 14:48:39 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Nov 17, 2021 15:14:05 GMT -8
I'm just waiting for the iCar.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 17, 2021 15:35:08 GMT -8
I never know how much it matters these days, but volume was huge on near the money calls and puts, for this week and next. finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/options?p=AAPLMaybe a bunch of it was just someone day trading, but 388k on weekly 155 calls (and 208k at 152.5), along with a few other calls and puts over 100k, seems like a lot. It could be interesting to see if the open interest hops up on any of those tomorrow.
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