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Post by aaplsauce on Dec 2, 2021 23:04:15 GMT -8
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Dec 3, 2021 7:15:12 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2021 8:48:17 GMT -8
Interesting! I'm wondering what autonomous driving is going to be like for following the rules and speed limits, but I don't know what Tesla does now. It seems like it should follow the rules directly, but there are times where all of traffic is going faster than the speed limit, so that "keeping up with traffic" is best for the overall situation. I'm guessing, like Ludicrous mode, that there could be multiple driving style options going on up to Aggressive, and down to Eco. This is already done for the transmission behavior (my truck has 5, with normal, sport, eco, towing, and snow), but could carry over to how quick it moves, spacing, passing, cornering, and the like. Another problem is that at least at first, it might want the human to take over in tough situations. The problem is that it will be taking away practice for the human in most situations. We already have enough problems with inexperienced people driving in the snow, and experienced people can get in a pickle too. Similarly, snow isn't always the same. 3 feet of fresh stuff here can be nothing like the 1/4 inch of sleet that froze in Atlanta and shut it down. It's often the mix of temperatures and varied consistency that can make things terrible, especially at the shoulder seasons. But dirt, gravel and sand can vary a lot too. Even normal roads, with cement and varying qualities of asphalt, not to mention the country highway with some gravel on a corner. The easy way is to follow the speed limit signs. But like the DMV handbooks, the trick might be properly adjusting for conditions. Though I believe there was a patent around this a few years ago, it seems like it is going to be tricky to get an accurate idea of the current frictional ability of the road surface. Maybe the best way is to just have a 5th mini wheel that can test that out in bad conditions. Or maybe, with todays ability of having more independence between wheels, it's easier to test the limits (upper or lower) without affecting the stability of the vehicle...all while in bad conditions. I like the idea of a 5th wheel or other drag tester, but it's the edge cases that will help dictate this, such as hitting a piece of ice in a corner, especially if under a thin layer of fresh snow so it's not visible to you or the sensors. But at some point this comes back to it being computer driven, that it can react instantly, transferring power as needed and following the correct steps without a second thought. As someone who fishtailed 5 times before recovering, when hitting ice around a corner, I can appreciate that. Current vehicles already do this to a great extend, but complete autonomous driving can be set up to do it even better.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Dec 3, 2021 9:59:07 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 3, 2021 11:03:56 GMT -8
Note to self: always sell at 70 RSI. You’ll always have a chance to buy it back lower.
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Post by nwjade on Dec 3, 2021 11:04:57 GMT -8
Most of us have been invested in aapl for years and remember Tommo_UK from the old AFB.
I was fortunate to go all in pre iPhone October of 2006.
There's an interesting trip down memory lane going on today in the comments of the article posted on PED30 below.
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Post by nwjade on Dec 3, 2021 11:14:29 GMT -8
Note to self: always sell at 70 RSI. You’ll always have a chance to buy it back lower. I hear you but the trouble is aapl can at times just touch 70 RSI or other times remain in the 70's for days continuing to climb making it a crap shoot whether you're selling too soon to allow for a profitable reentry. Sure would be nice if it was so easy...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 3, 2021 11:54:09 GMT -8
When it touches 70 it’s not always the tippy top, but it’s always going to be lower at some point in the future.
For example, it hit 70 when the stock was at 165. If you sold there, you might have been annoyed when it popped to 170, but you would have still been good with selling at 165 and buying back lower.
I find it a lot easier to know when to buy Apple with dry powder, then to know when to sell. This is one good method
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Dec 3, 2021 11:58:14 GMT -8
Another thought: “sell” doesn’t mean sell all positions. For example, it could mean “sell covered calls.” If I sold covered calls every time the RSI hits 70, it would do extremely well.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 3, 2021 13:15:15 GMT -8
How will this affect my laser jammers? Hard to complain about my favorite fruit company being $161.XX. Especially since the stock has split 112 times since I've owned it.
Meanwhile, 170's cherry has already been popped. Onward and upward! 📈
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2021 13:53:56 GMT -8
Another thought: “sell” doesn’t mean sell all positions. For example, it could mean “sell covered calls.” If I sold covered calls every time the RSI hits 70, it would do extremely well. Then you'd have to decide what you meant by covered calls, how many weeks or months out, and how far out of the money. I'm sure there's a strategy there that could do well, but you'd have to be willing to live through the times that it limited your earnings too. I wrote some covered calls maybe 12 years ago, 6-7 months out, and then the stock went crazy. Maybe we were at 380 pre-earnings in January, I wrote July calls at 410 or 420, and then it went to 460. I forget exactly, but the gist of it is that it made sense up front, and still makes sense if you compared it to just selling the underlying shares back in January instead, but compared to the final pricing in July I lost money. And I did the same thing this time, with some Jan '22 135 calls. That seems like a low price now, but not so much when they were 540's pre-split, and the stock was in the 375-390 range in July of '20. Instead of buying them back a few months ago, I bought stock to cover them, so net I won't be out any or many shares. If using RSI, one way is to sell at 70 on the way back down, and buy back in at whatever. But I understand your point, as I also have a much easier time buying more AAPL at an RSI or 30 or 35 than I do of selling some at any level.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 3, 2021 19:30:01 GMT -8
Looking at the daily post listings, AAPL is down 10 cents from the Wednesday before Thanksgiving (and up around $5 since the close on the following short Omicron Friday).
Also, it looks like my "low risk annualized returns" guesstimate hit it's mark this week, 9 months early:
"8-24-20 I give a 40+% probability on 15+% annualized returns for the next 2 years. For Sept expirations, using today's ($125.75), that's roughly ($146) for Sept '21, ($169) for Sept '22"
It's hard to know exactly where the stock will go on a daily, weekly, monthly, or even annual basis. But while Apple is continuing to do well, a baseline that averages out to 15% annually seems decent, and further increases are icing on the cake. Or chocolate ganache. That stuff is great!
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Dec 4, 2021 3:25:53 GMT -8
Most of us have been invested in aapl for years and remember Tommo_UK from the old AFB.
I was fortunate to go all in pre iPhone October of 2006.
There's an interesting trip down memory lane going on today in the comments of the article posted on PED30 below. Those were exciting times. I wish that I had had the foresight to have recorded some of the postings from the original AFB, but sadly that is all lost to the intergalactic bit bucket.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 4, 2021 8:32:26 GMT -8
Most of us have been invested in aapl for years and remember Tommo_UK from the old AFB.
I was fortunate to go all in pre iPhone October of 2006.
There's an interesting trip down memory lane going on today in the comments of the article posted on PED30 below. Those were exciting times. I wish that I had had the foresight to have recorded some of the postings from the original AFB, but sadly that is all lost to the intergalactic bit bucket. Try the "WayBack Machine" web archive at web.archive.orgSometimes that helps nab a bite of history, getting something that was taken down by the person posting, or more often ordered to be taken down by a company. I used it to help download a Factory Service Manual for a Toyota, to give me a PDF of the books that I already own.
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mark
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Post by mark on Dec 4, 2021 17:15:22 GMT -8
Note to self: always sell at 70 RSI. You’ll always have a chance to buy it back lower. Is this true? Historically, does the stock always become lower after hitting a 70 RSI? (and then there's the usual problem ... when to buy back after it hits the "lower" ...)
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