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Post by aaplsauce on Dec 8, 2021 23:44:06 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 9, 2021 6:05:44 GMT -8
from the Najarian bros.via JD
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Post by benoir on Dec 9, 2021 6:51:36 GMT -8
Everyone strapped in…?
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Post by artman1033 on Dec 9, 2021 7:10:07 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$176.75All Time Highest TODAY intraday 105,452,229 shares traded today Here is my quiz of the day: I Have a pile of $1,000,000 over here. HOW MANY PILES OF 1 MILLION DOLLARS WOULD EQUAL 1 TRILLION DOLLARS? new all Time high $176.75
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 9, 2021 9:36:49 GMT -8
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Post by kpas1 on Dec 9, 2021 10:08:19 GMT -8
from the Najarian bros.via JD
Najarian(s) seem focused on AAPL options volume but what really matters is options open interest and net changes in open interest. If the volume for a particular strike far exceeds its open interest (like by a factor of 4x), it means there must be some HFT going on. I had heard that using HFT on options does not really pay off, but someone seems to be trying it. Options volume gets reported in real time but the OI is usually only reported after the close, so better to wait for the close to see the real net effect of all those trades. If the meme stock players are now buying out-of-the-money AAPL weekly calls, there will be price pressure on the stock as Friday rolls around, due to the option writers unloading their hedge when the call holder's position closes. This is what really causes the max-pain effect, I believe (not manipulation).
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 9, 2021 12:11:58 GMT -8
Probably a good time to start looking at the call walls.
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Post by duckpins on Dec 9, 2021 12:17:35 GMT -8
The Whaling wall? Probably a good time to start looking at the call walls.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
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Post by mark on Dec 9, 2021 19:49:55 GMT -8
If the meme stock players are now buying out-of-the-money AAPL weekly calls, there will be price pressure on the stock as Friday rolls around, due to the option writers unloading their hedge when the call holder's position closes. This is what really causes the max-pain effect, I believe (not manipulation). We discussed this ad nauseam a few years ago (somewhere, maybe on the previous board?) and the conclusion was that manipulating a large and liquid stock like Apple is not likely at all because of the massive amount of capital required to do it ... and thus the massive risk incurred, making the trade not profitable on average.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 9, 2021 20:03:33 GMT -8
If the meme stock players are now buying out-of-the-money AAPL weekly calls, there will be price pressure on the stock as Friday rolls around, due to the option writers unloading their hedge when the call holder's position closes. This is what really causes the max-pain effect, I believe (not manipulation). We discussed this ad nauseam a few years ago (somewhere, maybe on the previous board?) and the conclusion was that manipulating a large and liquid stock like Apple is not likely at all because of the massive amount of capital required to do it ... and thus the massive risk incurred, making the trade not profitable on average. I'm not easily finding it in my bookmarks, but I think it was a seekingalpha article that talked about this, maybe 8 years ago? It all comes back to the numbers, and the averages. Often, max-pain might not matter much, especially if with a moderate amount of options on a large volume stock. And natural progression of covering takes its toll. But, that doesn't mean that it never matters. Sorry y'all. For those believing the superstition, we put a deposit on a boring 4 wheel'd thing today, that happened to pop up instead of waiting 4-5 months if ordered. Nothing exciting to most, but 36 mpg and the latest safety features while seating 7 plus junk makes it exciting to a certain subset, even if it doesn't have the acceleration of my giant chunk of metal truck that has the torque of a Corvette. It is amazing that AAPL's RSI can still be at 75, even after a day where the stock dropped just a little. AAPL, and the market, is still on the general updraft. Think Glider, in Mac OS 6.0.8.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 9, 2021 20:05:53 GMT -8
That would be Whales, going big? PED's earning expectations spreadsheet show how we can all get caught up in excitement, especially the independents.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
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Post by mark on Dec 11, 2021 17:18:57 GMT -8
We discussed this ad nauseam a few years ago (somewhere, maybe on the previous board?) and the conclusion was that manipulating a large and liquid stock like Apple is not likely at all because of the massive amount of capital required to do it ... and thus the massive risk incurred, making the trade not profitable on average. I'm not easily finding it in my bookmarks, but I think it was a seekingalpha article that talked about this, maybe 8 years ago? It could have been 8 years ago. It could have been 10+ years ago. Or it could have been a year or two ago. 🤣 I'm not saying it doesn't matter, the "natural progression" of closing option positions DEFINITELY affects the stock price. That's been shown over and over again with good statistics. I *am* saying that it isn't "manipulation". We have one remaining non-EV vehicle in our household, and I'm looking to replace it sometime in the next few years. I want a 7-seater with room for luggage to replace it (a Honda Odyssey), and I want an EV of course.
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