|
Post by aaplsauce on Dec 9, 2021 22:48:12 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 10, 2021 6:22:50 GMT -8
Sorry, I just don’t see it. Will a certain (small) percentage of iPhone customers switch to buy goggles, or whatever form AR/VR headsets take? Sure, but I highly doubt that the streets of the world are going to be filled with headset-wearing throngs any time soon. The market will be restricted to super-nerds and specialized uses. The beauty of the iPhone is that it stands at the ready in a pocket when it is wanted/needed, but otherwise draws no attention to the user. As someone who needed glasses by the sixth grade, I can tell you that the switch to contact lenses completely changed how I felt about my public image, from nerd to normal.
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Dec 10, 2021 6:33:38 GMT -8
AAPL ALL TIME HIGH!$179.63All Time Highest TODAY intraday 111,323,274 shares traded today Here is my quiz of the day: I Have a pile of $1,000,000 over here. HOW MANY PILES OF 1 MILLION DOLLARS WOULD EQUAL 1 TRILLION DOLLARS? ALL TIME HIGH $176.03 ALL TIME HIGH $176.56 ALL TIME HIGH $176.99 ALL TIME HIGH $177.18 ALL TIME HIGH $177.57 ALL TIME HIGH $177.91 ALL TIME HIGH $179.63
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Dec 10, 2021 8:15:16 GMT -8
Sorry, I just don’t see it. Will a certain (small) percentage of iPhone customers switch to buy goggles, or whatever form AR/VR headsets take? Sure, but I highly doubt that the streets of the world are going to be filled with headset-wearing throngs any time soon. The market will be restricted to super-nerds and specialized uses. The beauty of the iPhone is that it stands at the ready in a pocket when it is wanted/needed, but otherwise draws no attention to the user. As someone who needed glasses by the sixth grade, I can tell you that the switch to contact lenses completely changed how I felt about my public image, from nerd to normal. Part of it depends on the path to get there. Would we have thought, 30-40 years ago, first that people would have a small phone with them (as small as possible, like the Rzor), and then go the other way of basically having a computer in their pocket, often on the big side. The evolution was slow. First pagers, where you then had to find a phone booth to call back. Then bigger ones that could show a little text. And then 2 way pagers, complete with a tiny keyboard. Motorola gave our team of engineers these, in my last few months there, and I remember we were typing out an email just before crossing into Mexico for our SCUBA certification, probably early '00. But there was overlap with cell phones, including what you see Gordon Gekko using in Wall Street (some movies are great reference pieces with a time stamp, like the helicoptor used in Annie that looks straight out of the Hiller aviation museum (https://www.hiller.org one plane there has an Apple logo, plus some history). It seems anything pushed too fast often has pushback. I remember when the first iPod came out, and the pushback on the name, price, and even concept by many. Apple sold them to employees and contractors for half price, which got me to buy one ($200 vs $400). But look how they migrated over the years, now mostly just being one more feature of your iPhone. The glasses concept makes sense in theory, making a Heads Up Display simple, just there and waiting for you at any moment. For sight, it's mainlining it just as for audio the AirPods can communicate with you directly at any time. Aside from a contact lens, a hologram projector (which then others would see too), or some sort of visualization within your brain, it can't get any more direct in most cases (ie a car you have the windshield or other HUD option. We'll see how it goes. But given the history of phones, iPods, and other things, I wouldn't necessarily rule something out just due to a coolness factor or a preference by many, currently. Like self-driving cars, it's a slow migration, with holdouts along the way (including myself, though I can see at least some of the benefits, including the ability to get into the minivan at 10 at night, go to sleep, and show up in SoCal at 6am). The real question that will likely play out in some of our lifetimes is brain supplement implants, and if that extends us (suddenly fluent in 10 languages), is more like a toolkit (like Matrix, you still have to practice, even if it's intensive), or if it's the slow end humankind as our brain atrophies due to lack of need. "The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades!"
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 10, 2021 8:51:56 GMT -8
Sorry, I just don’t see it. Will a certain (small) percentage of iPhone customers switch to buy goggles, or whatever form AR/VR headsets take? Sure, but I highly doubt that the streets of the world are going to be filled with headset-wearing throngs any time soon. The market will be restricted to super-nerds and specialized uses. The beauty of the iPhone is that it stands at the ready in a pocket when it is wanted/needed, but otherwise draws no attention to the user. As someone who needed glasses by the sixth grade, I can tell you that the switch to contact lenses completely changed how I felt about my public image, from nerd to normal. I buy the premise, but not necessarily the specifics. Eventually, something has to replace iPhones. I mean when we (i.e., our descendants) are all flying around like The Jetsons, either a wearable or an implantable is going to make a mobile computer that you carry with your hands obsolete. I've long thought it would be glasses, or some sort of lens that lets us see our digital lives without having to hold something in our hands to make it all work. Probably two separate products we are talking about here, goggles for VR and glasses for AR. I like Kelly Evans. She is a rarity on CNBC in that she has a little humility and asks questions to learn things, rather than show how smart she thinks she is with a long winded leading question. Most of those CNBC guys just have verbal diarrhea. That Santoli dude, e.g. 🤮 He can ramble for an hour straight with the certitude of a math professor. But Kelly is young and doesn't have the institutional memory that some of us old farts have. She's making a point that we already know, that Jobs made Apple understand that cannibalization of your own product is a million times better than another company doing it.
And remember, if something is obvious, it isn't innovative.
Today's call wall:
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Dec 10, 2021 10:32:38 GMT -8
And remember, if something is obvious, it isn't innovative.
One trick is that for quick adoption, it helps to be so almost obvious that it seems obvious in retrospect. "Patent it yourself" had the generic example of "build a better kickstand", though this was back before smartphones, so it was about a bike kickstand. This is where much of Apple's innovation seems to be in recent years, of improvements that seems obvious and intuitive in retrospect, so much so that people feel there wasn't any real innovation at all. I really loved learning some of this stuff, especially physics and even fluid dynamics, because (at least in the lower levels) it could be obvious in retrospect. How many people here could give a simple diagram of the speed of a fluid going down a wall, like water flowing down the side of a building? But as soon as you think about it a little and separate it into its parts, you can do it. Right at the wall, the water is stopped or nearly stopped. If the flow stopped, it would still be wet, and any flowing down it would be last to clear. Likewise, there is some wind resistance with the air (in fluid dynamics air or a gas is also called a fluid, which can be confusing), so at the non-building side it would slow a bit. The max speed would be in the middle somewhere, so you're diagram would be something like a cursive n, at the 0 speed line against the wall, and in the air (ie positive speed) a bit at the air interface. The exact figure depends on a lot of things. But the basics are pretty obvious in retrospect, for something that possibly/probably wasn't known 30 seconds ago. Apple's UI, products, and most of it's innovation are like that, of simplifying so much to make it easy and even intuitive. In most cases, once it's at that point, why would you make it less obvious and intuitive. Often for the whole industry. Thanks Apple! Even if it's not always obvious in retrospect how much you sometimes manage to push innovation.
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on Dec 10, 2021 10:51:22 GMT -8
Thanks to 4aapl and JD for your thoughts on AR/VR glasses/headsets, but I think that we have to remember that the AFB user base is better informed about and less intimidated by technology and its advances than the general public.
Now I will certainly agree that the iPhone brought high-end computer technology and usability to a wider societal audience of regular users, many of whom had in its early days never touched an actual computer in their lives, but an AR/VR headset will be much more noticeable and ever-present, even when implemented as a pair of glasses, than an iPhone which often spends a good percentage of its time in a pocket or handbag.
I am sure that on some level your view of the future will come to pass, but as in many past cases, I suspect that it will take one or more “killer apps” to make AR/VR equipment a commonplace sight among the general public.
Now, as an invaluable tool in specific settings such as a factory or medical office, I do not doubt that specialized app capabilities could make such devices essential on a more accelerated schedule. Once again I note that phone calls and text messages were already well known activities, although with vastly inferior user interfaces, prior to the iPhone.
|
|
|
Post by hyci004 on Dec 10, 2021 11:32:11 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by aapltini on Dec 10, 2021 12:33:53 GMT -8
Wheeeeee!!!
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Dec 10, 2021 12:55:58 GMT -8
Excellent article! Detailed information about the inner workings of the entire Apple Park design organizations, fully supported with appropriate photos. Thanks for posting it!
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 10, 2021 12:58:36 GMT -8
Well, I have had worse weeks in my investing career.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 10, 2021 13:04:30 GMT -8
Well, I have had worse weeks in my investing career. Did you sell all your AAPL to buy PTON?
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
|
Post by Ted on Dec 10, 2021 13:07:13 GMT -8
Man, what a Christmas run we've had! Cheers to the Apple faithful. 🤑
|
|
|
Post by Lstream on Dec 10, 2021 13:13:48 GMT -8
Well, I have had worse weeks in my investing career. Did you sell all your AAPL to buy PTON? Yes, and leveraged my house and car to buy GME.
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 10, 2021 13:20:05 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 10, 2021 13:20:24 GMT -8
Did you sell all your AAPL to buy PTON? Yes, and leveraged my house and car to buy GME.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 10, 2021 13:25:48 GMT -8
To the longs. 🍏
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Dec 10, 2021 13:26:07 GMT -8
I'm kinda liking this.
It's tough to explain to the young saleswoman (complete with grey hair highlights and pink tips) that I don't need to get a final printout to bring to my bank in order to finalize a loan.
Thanks AAPL! While your path is sometimes erratic and illogical, it continues to pay off nicely in the long run.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Dec 10, 2021 13:37:50 GMT -8
It's boring, but I'd rather one or two of them up their target each week, and possibly even to a value that is attainable so that they up it again within 6 months. That's better than getting too excited, upgrading price and earnings targets too much, and then having Apple not quite be able to exceed them by enough margin to keep everyone happy. It's all a game, though it is one I am willing to sit through again if it means AAPL touches a trailing P/E of 40 again. That would be an amazing pull from the current 32, and not one that I expect nor even put much probability in. Instead, let's see a few analysts upgrade their targets in an orderly fashion, while we keep seeing where this yellow brick road will lead us.
|
|
|
Post by benoir on Dec 10, 2021 14:12:57 GMT -8
Excellent article! Detailed information about the inner workings of the entire Apple Park design organizations, fully supported with appropriate photos. Thanks for posting it! Wasn’t it! Quite a long read, but insightful. Great from a shareholder perspective and for myself as a designer.
|
|
|
Post by pauls on Dec 10, 2021 14:42:25 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by benoir on Dec 10, 2021 14:45:35 GMT -8
I think some tempering of the stock price is called for.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 10, 2021 14:57:11 GMT -8
It's boring, but I'd rather one or two of them up their target each week, and possibly even to a value that is attainable so that they up it again within 6 months. That's better than getting too excited, upgrading price and earnings targets too much, and then having Apple not quite be able to exceed them by enough margin to keep everyone happy. It's all a game, though it is one I am willing to sit through again if it means AAPL touches a trailing P/E of 40 again. That would be an amazing pull from the current 32, and not one that I expect nor even put much probability in. Instead, let's see a few analysts upgrade their targets in an orderly fashion, while we keep seeing where this yellow brick road will lead us. God bless buybacks. Let's hope our circular firing squad in DC doesn't tax them.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Dec 10, 2021 14:57:42 GMT -8
To the longs. 🍏 Just Love It ! !
|
|
|
Post by benoir on Dec 10, 2021 15:05:31 GMT -8
Someone posted this on Yahoo Finance under the AAPL thread.
Heres how much 3 Trillion is. Wrap your head around this. Apple was founded April 1, 1976. Thats 16,689 days ago.
3,000,000,000,000 / 16,689 = 179,759,122.78
That nearly $180 MILLION EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. since its founding
I had to put the last bit in Artman™️ green.
|
|
|
Post by benoir on Dec 10, 2021 15:35:08 GMT -8
It's all a game, though it is one I am willing to sit through again if it means AAPL touches a trailing P/E of 40 again. That would be an amazing pull from the current 32, and not one that I expect nor even put much probability in. Instead, let's see a few analysts upgrade their targets in an orderly fashion, while we keep seeing where this yellow brick road will lead us. I’d prefer to see AAPL under 30 and in a sensible market the PE would max out at 24.(in my armchair opinion). Now I know the market is not sensible. But AAPL has been good to us longs and like a good beer, I’d prefer it without too much froth on top. A moderate amount is fine but the glass needs a little more tilt on it for my liking. Having said that I would prefer the share price be underpinned by an ever increasing EPS and buy-backs. However….and I digress here, there must be a point of diminishing returns at some point with buy backs, not that I know where that is. If instead of returning $$$$$ to stockholders through buybacks, what if they returned it to us through spin-offs? So. We all know Apple has an incredible culture… you know, the ‘think different’’ kinda stuff. And it’s pretty clear that this has demonstrably been a critical factor in Apple’s financial success. So if Apple developed spin-offs infused with Apple-y culture, not only do we reap the rewards it may also help on staving off regulatory interference. For instance Apple could, say, spin-off a bank, spin-off car assembly(would keep software/hardware development in house due to ecosystem). Renewable energy businesses could be spun off….whatever.. anyway the point is they could spin off adjacent businesses that don’t compromise the core ecosystem components that make Apple what it’s become today and shareholders could retain or divest ownership in those spin-offs.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
|
Post by Ted on Dec 10, 2021 17:24:53 GMT -8
Someone posted this on Yahoo Finance under the AAPL thread. Heres how much 3 Trillion is. Wrap your head around this. Apple was founded April 1, 1976. Thats 16,689 days ago.
3,000,000,000,000 / 16,689 = 179,759,122.78
That nearly $180 MILLION EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. since its founding
I had to put the last bit in Artman™️ green. Well, Steve did say that Apple's best days were still to come! He knew. Thanks, Steve.
|
|
Ted
fire starter
Posts: 892
|
Post by Ted on Dec 10, 2021 17:31:08 GMT -8
And then there's this. 🤡 Mikey didn't get it. Apple now worth 66 times Dell’s market valueFriday, December 10, 2021 4:28 pm On October 6, 1997, in response to the question of what he’d do if he was in charge of Apple, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell stood before a crowd of several thousand IT executives and answered flippantly, “What would I do? I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.” macdailynews.com/2021/12/10/apple-now-worth-66-times-dells-market-value/
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Dec 10, 2021 18:49:35 GMT -8
And then there's this. 🤡 Mikey didn't get it. Apple now worth 66 times Dell’s market valueFriday, December 10, 2021 4:28 pm On October 6, 1997, in response to the question of what he’d do if he was in charge of Apple, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell stood before a crowd of several thousand IT executives and answered flippantly, “What would I do? I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.” macdailynews.com/2021/12/10/apple-now-worth-66-times-dells-market-value/I mean, he was a windows guy. Would we expect anything different? Everyone makes mistakes. Especially when taking a quote from the minute, and applying it off in the far far future. "Who would ever need more than 128k" comes to mind. Once I accept that everyone makes mistakes, it makes now worrying about my own mistakes a lot easier. No one is perfect. Sure, with the Biff sports almanac, I'd have even more now. Or if I had put it all in one of the 10x in a year stocks. Or if I had not bought a house, instead leaving it all in AAPL. Better yet, AAPL bullish options! Mr Dell hasn't done too bad. It's fun to call them out sometimes, like Ballmer and the youtube remix of his "Developers Developers Developers Developers" tirade. That is pretty funny, and the college students at WWDC even had a shirt for it one year. But, no one is perfect. Even Steve was said to have (more than) a few idiosyncrasies, even though I missed the couple of times I could have chatted him up. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_AP3SGMxxM
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Dec 11, 2021 8:48:14 GMT -8
And then there's this. 🤡 Mikey didn't get it. Apple now worth 66 times Dell’s market valueFriday, December 10, 2021 4:28 pm On October 6, 1997, in response to the question of what he’d do if he was in charge of Apple, Dell founder and CEO Michael Dell stood before a crowd of several thousand IT executives and answered flippantly, “What would I do? I’d shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.” macdailynews.com/2021/12/10/apple-now-worth-66-times-dells-market-value/I mean, he was a windows guy. Would we expect anything different? Everyone makes mistakes. Especially when taking a quote from the minute, and applying it off in the far far future. "Who would ever need more than 128k" comes to mind. Once I accept that everyone makes mistakes, it makes now worrying about my own mistakes a lot easier. No one is perfect. Sure, with the Biff sports almanac, I'd have even more now. Or if I had put it all in one of the 10x in a year stocks. Or if I had not bought a house, instead leaving it all in AAPL. Better yet, AAPL bullish options! Mr Dell hasn't done too bad. It's fun to call them out sometimes, like Ballmer and the youtube remix of his "Developers Developers Developers Developers" tirade. That is pretty funny, and the college students at WWDC even had a shirt for it one year. But, no one is perfect. Even Steve was said to have (more than) a few idiosyncrasies, even though I missed the couple of times I could have chatted him up. www.youtube.com/watch?v=d_AP3SGMxxMEveryone makes mistakes, but arrogantly running one's mouth to a reporter for all of posterity is rarely a good idea. Especially about someone of Steve's genius (and vindictiveness, which was well known even then). Better to make one's mistakes privately. And I don't like how the word "mistake" is used today. If I take the wrong off ramp, that's a mistake. If I send $10000 to a Nigerian prince to get him back into power so he'll give me a million dollar reward, that's just f-king dumb.
Dell is a mediocre company and always has been. I say this as a Dell customer. Someday I will stop making that mistake poor judgement. BTW, I sold some AAPL years ago to buy a car. That was dumb, and not just for our superstitious reasons. I can't even say the number out loud how much that ended up costing me. Let's just say I could have bought 12 of the cars with that stock (in fairness, these were shares I had bought on margin, but still 💸).
So when it came time to buy my house, I did not sell any AAPL. I took out a margin loan and just let it float. AAPL is up 330% since I bought the house. So yeah, not a complete idiot.
|
|