chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Dec 11, 2021 6:41:36 GMT -8
Largest weekly gain, amount and percentage, since July 31, 2020 (wouldn’t mind if someone double checked that). What a lovely holiday present . The Motley Fool has 3 Green Flags for Apple's Future, based on Katy Huberty’s recent report. PED has Meet Apple’s new Jony Ives. Seems like an unfair, if very complimentary, allusion, to me. Also, Barron’s: Why $3 trillion will eventually look more like the floor than the ceiling. I don’t blame folks for being excited, particularly after what has been IMHO a very frustrating year, but… Nice to have a weekend to savor this.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 11, 2021 7:57:11 GMT -8
So far this year, we're up almost 35%. That is a great year!!
For reference, last year, we were up 82%, and the year before 92%.
Past performance, future performance... ya da ya da ya...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 11, 2021 8:16:24 GMT -8
Largest weekly gain, amount and percentage since July 31, 2020 (wouldn’t mind if someone double checked that). What a lovely holiday present . Looks right! I glanced through them before you even asked. 10.88% is amazing, even if it's just how the days are lumped together, or catching up with where AAPL should have been This time of the year is always a little tricky. Potentially lots of product being sold, often hit by limited consumer cash. But with a positive savings rate while stories say some are starting to rack up extra spending on credit, and an economist saying how spending used to be 2/3 on "services" whereas that has flipped so that 2/3 is now on goods, that seems to leave plenty of room for higher ticket items. And Apple products tend to be higher ticket items. Off to go finish adjusting the gutters, before the storms hit. The current call is for 5.5 feet on the low side, or 7.5 feet on the high side (68 to 92"), over 2.5 days. And Donner Pass might get 100". Big round number! But this should give the resorts a nice solid blanket to get the season going. And sometimes "market timing" is more obvious, as I just sold 3 of my snowblowers this week. Those crazy figures make me wonder about that decision, but that happens when selling at peak market conditions. It would be great to see AAPL have a little followthrough this week, but realistically after that huge push up, anything positive is just icing on the cake. I'd like to see a touch of the $190 line this year, but if the market could see 1-2% this week, and AAPL matches that or even manages to stay ahead of the upswing, that would be plenty of a sweet treat for the holidays. Thanks AAPL!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 11, 2021 11:12:45 GMT -8
Largest weekly gain, amount and percentage since July 31, 2020 (wouldn’t mind if someone double checked that). What a lovely holiday present . Looks right! I glanced through them before you even asked. 10.88% is amazing, even if it's just how the days are lumped together, or catching up with where AAPL should have been This time of the year is always a little tricky. Potentially lots of product being sold, often hit by limited consumer cash. But with a positive savings rate while stories say some are starting to rack up extra spending on credit, and an economist saying how spending used to be 2/3 on "services" whereas that has flipped so that 2/3 is now on goods, that seems to leave plenty of room for higher ticket items. And Apple products tend to be higher ticket items. Off to go finish adjusting the gutters, before the storms hit. The current call is for 5.5 feet on the low side, or 7.5 feet on the high side (68 to 92"), over 2.5 days. And Donner Pass might get 100". Big round number! But this should give the resorts a nice solid blanket to get the season going. And sometimes "market timing" is more obvious, as I just sold 3 of my snowblowers this week. Those crazy figures make me wonder about that decision, but that happens when selling at peak market conditions. It would be great to see AAPL have a little followthrough this week, but realistically after that huge push up, anything positive is just icing on the cake. I'd like to see a touch of the $190 line this year, but if the market could see 1-2% this week, and AAPL matches that or even manages to stay ahead of the upswing, that would be plenty of a sweet treat for the holidays. Thanks AAPL! Good luck, but if we don't hear from you next week, we'll assume you were eaten.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 11, 2021 18:05:27 GMT -8
Good luck, but if we don't hear from you next week, we'll assume you were eaten.
Love it! Even with the Donner party, it took weeks or even months to decide to start eating the frozen bodies of dead people, after they chewed on tree bark and leather for a while. We have frozen bodies of dead animals in the big freezer, and gas for the remaining snow blowers and generators, so we should be fine. Plus it's citrus time down in SoCal. It would take a lot to keep me from my.....Blood Orange Tree! The assortment of mandarins are rather delicious too, with my favorite being an Algerian Tangerine. It's got seeds, unlike the Mango Tango hybrid (I think it's called). My father in law has over 100 fruit trees down there, and while it's not the right timing for the peaches/plums/pluots/cherries, it is citrus time. Always fun to watch "The Shinning" for a big snow, but that's better in a heavy year, when it seems seriously probable to be snowed in. All work and no play makes Jack a dull boy. (UPDATE: NOAA is now saying 84" to 114" at our other house, more than the top of Donner or the top of 431, and it makes the 4-5.5' we're expecting at our primary house sound like some snow flurries. Just life in the mountains, and a large 1 in 5 or 10 year storm. Still, much different than the deadly weather disasters that occasionally happen, like the current tornados: www.cnn.com/2021/12/12/weather/severe-weather-tornadoes-sunday/index.html )
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Post by CdnPhoto on Dec 12, 2021 7:03:24 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Dec 12, 2021 7:05:34 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Dec 12, 2021 8:50:40 GMT -8
Available on Apple News, search for Kidd. www.wsj.com/articles/wilmot-kidd-central-securities-goes-toe-to-toe-with-warren-buffett-11639153164?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1Meet the Kidd Who Goes Toe to Toe With Warren Buffett Patience, concentration and courage have allowed Wilmot Kidd to rack up one of the greatest long-term track records in the history of investing. He’s a model for how to think about, and practice, intelligent investing. “Skill is just recognizing when you’ve gotten lucky.” He explains, “It’s when you’ve been fortunate enough to make an investment in a great company, and suddenly you realize just how very lucky you were, and you buy more. That’s skill, I suppose. That—and holding on to what you have and not chickening out.”
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Dec 12, 2021 9:56:05 GMT -8
Available on Apple News, search for Kidd. www.wsj.com/articles/wilmot-kidd-central-securities-goes-toe-to-toe-with-warren-buffett-11639153164?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1Meet the Kidd Who Goes Toe to Toe With Warren Buffett Patience, concentration and courage have allowed Wilmot Kidd to rack up one of the greatest long-term track records in the history of investing. He’s a model for how to think about, and practice, intelligent investing. “Skill is just recognizing when you’ve gotten lucky.” He explains, “It’s when you’ve been fortunate enough to make an investment in a great company, and suddenly you realize just how very lucky you were, and you buy more. That’s skill, I suppose. That—and holding on to what you have and not chickening out.” At the risk of being Captain Obvious on this board, the decision to buy Apple was but one of countless subsequent decisions to hold onto it over the years, when countless others, family, friends, CNBC talking heads, and Internet "experts" were telling you how stupid you were for holding AAPL past its prime, or failing to diversify. It might shock many of you to know that I am too polite to say "I told you so" to those who told me to sell "expensive" AAPL over the years. It is enough to see them finally capitulate and buy some. Unless, of course, I should run into Dan Nathan in person. I will not be polite on that day.
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Post by Lstream on Dec 12, 2021 10:09:51 GMT -8
Available on Apple News, search for Kidd. www.wsj.com/articles/wilmot-kidd-central-securities-goes-toe-to-toe-with-warren-buffett-11639153164?mod=Searchresults_pos1&page=1Meet the Kidd Who Goes Toe to Toe With Warren Buffett Patience, concentration and courage have allowed Wilmot Kidd to rack up one of the greatest long-term track records in the history of investing. He’s a model for how to think about, and practice, intelligent investing. “Skill is just recognizing when you’ve gotten lucky.” He explains, “It’s when you’ve been fortunate enough to make an investment in a great company, and suddenly you realize just how very lucky you were, and you buy more. That’s skill, I suppose. That—and holding on to what you have and not chickening out.” At the risk of being Captain Obvious on this board, the decision to buy Apple was but one of countless subsequent decisions to hold onto it over the years, when countless others, family, friends, CNBC talking heads, and Internet "experts" were telling you how stupid you were for holding AAPL past its prime, or failing to diversify. It might shock many of you to know that I am too polite to say "I told you so" to those who told me to sell "expensive" AAPL over the years. It is enough to see them finally capitulate and buy some. Unless, of course, I should run into Dan Nathan in person. I will not be polite on that day. I vividly recall a belligerent conversation with two guys who were on my Board. One who thought Apple was a glorified toy company, and another who had sold at around $300. At the time the stock was about $600. I said I had no intention of selling, and that I thought it was a long term hold. Then the $300 guy went into complete asshole mode and kept demanding an answer to “would you buy at $600?!” At that time I just checked out and ignored him. He would not shut up. After accounting for the 28:1 splits since then, that $600 is now $5024.57. We have never discussed this topic again. Just one person in a long line that thought I was an idiot for holding all this time. To the other guys credit, he finally added Apple to his very sizable portfolio at $220 before the 4:1 split.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Dec 12, 2021 11:04:42 GMT -8
Like some of the comments there, I'm wondering about the 1 negative, claiming that the $200 level would put the forward price to earnings ratio at 35. That's a little strange. The trailing 12 month P/E would be 35.6 at $200. So to make it the Forward P/E too, that would mean zero growth. I think a relatively conservative baseline on a year that doesn't seem too peaky is for 10% growth. Revenue, earnings, or a particular product? It doesn't much matter with a wild-ass guess. That would only drop the P/E to 32.4, but it's something, and I wonder about an article using a value as an important talking point that assumes zero growth. But truthfully I've never seen much value in TMF's articles about AAPL. BTW, Gregg of course points out his rebadging of P/E as ISM (investor sentiment multiplier), which does have some truth since it is not a hard and fast ratio, and varies in different times and with different companies, basically being a voting or popularity meter even when of companies at similar stages. Another points out that when compared to hardware companies that are in bad shape, AAPL does have an overvalued P/E. But when compared to other companies that are doing well, AAPL is underpriced. Like always, there's multiple things out there that make AAPL look to not be priced right. OTOH, if not worried about if the grass could be greener, AAPL and Apple are doing pretty well.
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