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Post by aaplsauce on Jan 10, 2022 22:13:52 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Jan 11, 2022 3:10:57 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Jan 11, 2022 10:08:41 GMT -8
Basically developers want to kill the goose to get the eggs, might make a good video game for teaching Millennials the obvious. Call it Aesops Apples!
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 11, 2022 10:13:48 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 11, 2022 10:16:12 GMT -8
There's a lot of things that a bit of PR would help, and Apple has managed to screw up. The iPhone battery issue comes to mind, where they were trying to do the right thing by throttling an iPhone with an older battery so that it didn't just shut down. Having used an iPhone 5S with something like a 5 year old battery, where it started shutting down even when it was 50 degrees out, I can see that. But putting it out there directly, without giving the user a choice, made it turn into a lawsuit. OTOH, if keeping it the same, but then giving the user to opt into throttling, would have made it a win. I wasn't at the WWDC where this came out, but I don't remember even seeing a clear comparison of the 30% value, vs what the current costs had been. Without that, 30% seemed steep, at least to some, or in some ways. I had developed shareware, with people sending me checks directly. It was uploaded, just out there. AMUG even put it on their CD, for free. How do you compare to that? OTOH, pressing a CD, putting it in a box, distributing it, putting it on a shelf at CompUSA, where they have credit card fees and costs. That all adds up. And for the shareware comparison, it could all be made up in the distribution and availability, along with helping make it easier for a user to buy it. I think I had 4 people send in $15, not even enough to break even with the cost of the educational version of CodeWarrior. 30%, as we have talked in the past, is likely fairly reasonable. But putting the comparative costs out there would give an anchor to undercut. With hosting costs down considerably since Apple started the app store, it could have helped to drop the take a little along the way. 28%? Then 25%? Not a complete race to the bottom, but a move, considering lower hosting costs, initial R&D paid for, and a much bigger scale up of the store so costs distributed across more. Instead, in a pretty late fashion, they switched some things to 15%. I guess I at least partially agree with Tommo_UK on this one, that while not terrible, Apple could have done better here. That "law of large numbers" comes into play with Apple getting a lot more attention, of being a target, both due to ability to pay and still back to some having a platform preference on a computer or phone. Amazon, Google, and Facebook all have some detractors, but I still feel it's not to the same extent as Apple still has out there. It's just a bit more sided, and hence more people looking for a reason to chip away at Apple if they can. I'd like to see Apple improve its PR stance. That might mean backing down just a little in some places, but I think most of it could just be through PR and working with the users. Push the ease of use and "safety" factor, which isn't just for the end users but also for companies and even developers. And consider separating out the payments portion of the app store, even in regions not currently in a lawsuit. Users are still likely to go with the easiest option, and like a power company splitting out a monthly service charge, power creation, and power transmission, you can still do well even if some places decide they can handle the billing portion for 3% while you allocate 4%. Apple does a lot of things very well. But there are some that it can do better. Maybe we're not seeing all of this, and this is just part of a bigger picture, giving Apple negotiating power in other areas while being willing to make changes here, or even misdirecting focus onto these things since some are always going to be unhappy with something. But it seems more like an area that just could use some improvements.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 11, 2022 10:28:37 GMT -8
Did anyone see how low the intraday RSI got yesterday? I saw 46.something when AAPL was around $169. I then wrote down a couple lower targets, just in case, but AAPL only went up from there.
It's hard to put probabilities on things. There is some chance that AAPL, likely with the market, will go down in the coming 12 months. There's some chance that AAPL will be roughly flat. There's some chance it will be up 20+%. And then there's a chance, one that I would put the highest, that it will be up at least 10%, which from the ATH of $182.9 you can call $200.
And on all of those, there's a good chance that something will be one way during part of the year, but 12 months out will be different. Just like all the worry that AAPL was flat or even down for months into the year, taking a seemingly long time to get to ATHs again, even after posting great results.
It sure is a lot easier to just sit back and not worry about any of it. We're a long ways from RMDs, but the dividends more than pay our needs. Still, it's a way to stay engaged, while potentially making some very occasional small changes.
Thanks Apple!
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
Member is Online
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Post by mark on Jan 11, 2022 12:13:22 GMT -8
There's a lot of things that a bit of PR would help, and Apple has managed to screw up. The iPhone battery issue comes to mind, where they were trying to do the right thing by throttling an iPhone with an older battery so that it didn't just shut down. Having used an iPhone 5S with something like a 5 year old battery, where it started shutting down even when it was 50 degrees out, I can see that. But putting it out there directly, without giving the user a choice, made it turn into a lawsuit. OTOH, if keeping it the same, but then giving the user to opt into throttling, would have made it a win. ALL my older Android phones simply shut down randomly, and I don't mean a graceful shutdown, I mean an abrupt power disconnect. I despise them because of that. And they're not all that old, like my Pixel XL does it! I have to completely disagree with this part ("backing down"). You can never back down, because when you start backing down, they ask for more and more and more, and it never ends. That is the nature of people (in that respect, "people suck"). The only time you can, and should, back down is when you are clearly in the wrong.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 11, 2022 12:46:53 GMT -8
Basically developers want to kill the goose to get the eggs, might make a good video game for teaching Millennials the obvious. Call it Aesops Apples! Po' wittle developers might be the pretext, but, make no mistake; this is just an excuse to shakedown Apple by various countries and the EU. Theft, pure and simple. Tim needs to get tough and make some Faustian quid pro quos wrt labor in these countries, as he did in India and China.
I do agree that Apple has an arrogance, never responding to anything until it's too late. I appreciate the general rule that responding to trolls only encourages them. But when an entire country is coming for you, time for some PR.
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