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Post by aaplsauce on Jan 18, 2022 23:20:26 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 19, 2022 4:12:36 GMT -8
Apple: Senate bills risks unleashing ‘malware, ransomware and scams’Checkout the discussion in the comments section. When you look at the amount of money being lost by companies, like Facebook, because of Apple’s willingness to give their customers a choice about one’s privacy you can see that this type of legislation would be inevitable. It’s likely only the beginning. Thanks aaplsauce.
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Post by zebrum on Jan 19, 2022 7:54:21 GMT -8
Surprised we are back in the 160s just hope 168 holds
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Post by dmiller on Jan 19, 2022 7:59:17 GMT -8
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Post by rmhe1999 on Jan 19, 2022 8:13:05 GMT -8
Surprised we are back in the 160s just hope 168 holds Yes, this is the first test of a major support line (50-day SMA on daily chart) since September 2021. At that point we blew through it but the 50-day SMA on the weekly chart ended up holding. IMHO nothing has change with Apple as a company. Yes, the macro environment is changing (interest rates, market liquidity, etc) so perhaps some reevaluation if a fair multiple is occurring. Eventually the RSI will bottom out as it always does; good opportunity to establish a new long position.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 19, 2022 8:22:30 GMT -8
Surprised we are back in the 160s just hope 168 holds Yes, this is the first test of a major support line (50-day SMA on daily chart) since September 2021. At that point we blew through it but the 50-day SMA on the weekly chart ended up holding. IMHO nothing has change with Apple as a company. Yes, the macro environment is changing (interest rates, market liquidity, etc) so perhaps some reevaluation if a fair multiple is occurring. Eventually the RSI will bottom out as it always does; good opportunity to establish a new long position. That’s the thing. A reevaluation of tech PEs based on interest rate expectations could be disastrous for AAPL, even if they continue to grow earnings. We don’t want to see this back at a 20 or even a 25 PE. The 50 SMA on the weekly chart is at 143.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 19, 2022 9:30:38 GMT -8
Yes, this is the first test of a major support line (50-day SMA on daily chart) since September 2021. At that point we blew through it but the 50-day SMA on the weekly chart ended up holding. IMHO nothing has change with Apple as a company. Yes, the macro environment is changing (interest rates, market liquidity, etc) so perhaps some reevaluation if a fair multiple is occurring. Eventually the RSI will bottom out as it always does; good opportunity to establish a new long position. That’s the thing. A reevaluation of tech PEs based on interest rate expectations could be disastrous for AAPL, even if they continue to grow earnings. We don’t want to see this back at a 20 or even a 25 PE. The 50 SMA on the weekly chart is at 143. The 200 DMA is also nearly down there, at 146. Looking at the 5 year chart, the early months of the year have often had AAPL approaching or dipping below the 200 DMA. It's not a given or an always, just a time of the year that is potentially weaker. OTOH, it has also been the time of the year that some of the breakouts have occurred. While a couple have been in July/August, in '98 when I first bought the first trading day of the year was the low. And another time, maybe in '07 or '09, it took off after January earnings. We'll see. Lots of available money out there, even if things are starting to be positioned towards an eventual drawdown. Even a 2% increase in rates, which would likely take 2.5-3 years from today, would have them fairly low, historically. Indexes are up, and AAPL is trying. This might not be a time that the RSI gets below 35.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 19, 2022 11:06:08 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Jan 19, 2022 11:07:48 GMT -8
Dewitt has the worst graphics ever used in the history of communication. Basically millions of fundraisers can be filled with the tech reps from both sides. This will keep the issue alive. There is no privacy now. So Apple can try but that's not the way to bet.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
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Post by mark on Jan 19, 2022 12:33:20 GMT -8
Surprised we are back in the 160s just hope 168 holds Not at all surprising. Everyone is talking about the Nasdaq tech wreck. Just this morning I heard on CNBC something about how the Nasdaq dropped more in 2022 so far than it dropped in ANY full year since 2008. Blah blah blah .... they need something to talk about since they are on 24/7.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 19, 2022 12:47:03 GMT -8
Bloomberg is easier to watch. I keep the sound off.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 19, 2022 12:48:38 GMT -8
Surprised we are back in the 160s just hope 168 holds Not at all surprising. Everyone is talking about the Nasdaq tech wreck. Just this morning I heard on CNBC something about how the Nasdaq dropped more in 2022 so far than it dropped in ANY full year since 2008. Blah blah blah .... they need something to talk about since they are on 24/7. Except the NASDAQ is only down about half a percent today...AAPL is down 5X that. 🤬
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 19, 2022 12:55:10 GMT -8
Not at all surprising. Everyone is talking about the Nasdaq tech wreck. Just this morning I heard on CNBC something about how the Nasdaq dropped more in 2022 so far than it dropped in ANY full year since 2008. Blah blah blah .... they need something to talk about since they are on 24/7. Except the NASDAQ is only down about half a percent today...AAPL is down 5X that. 🤬 The big major January options expire this week. I sometimes like to think that they don't matter much. But at least sometimes they do. I don't know what max pain is on AAPL for the week, but offhand it's looking like big numbers for both calls and puts at 170, so a close within a buck under that seems likely. On Friday. (EDIT: This website puts MaxPain at 150. maximum-pain.com/options/aapl So does this one, with cool historical graphing too: swaggystocks.com/dashboard/options-max-pain/AAPL ) (160 tomorrow? Someone big could afford to push around the stock for 2 days, especially if just targeting certain times of the day. And it could be a win-win, knocking it down as far as options expiration, but also giving a chance to buy low in big quantities, just before earnings. It's happened before....)
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 19, 2022 13:49:04 GMT -8
Sell at 75 RSI, buy at 35 RSI undefeated so far.... Lets see if we get there this week.
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Post by nwjade on Jan 19, 2022 15:31:11 GMT -8
Sell at 75 RSI, buy at 35 RSI undefeated so far.... Lets see if we get there this week. I hear where you're coming from but can it be counted on to work out? For example: If last November just prior to Thanksgiving a person sold at RSI 75 for approx $160 in the meantime aapl ran up to an ATH of $182.94. Then what? Wait for a return to RSI 35 for reentry? It's looking like we may reach RSI 35 this time for a zero profit reentry point of approx $160 due to the marco economic shift occurring. If that weren't the situation the eventual return to a RSI 35 could have had aapl at a much higher price than the break even $160 reentry. Making round trip trades, getting back on the train can sometimes come with quite a surtax especially if not using a tax deferred account.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 325
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Post by crispin on Jan 19, 2022 15:51:45 GMT -8
Sell at 75 RSI, buy at 35 RSI undefeated so far.... Lets see if we get there this week. Or you could simply buy and hold, ignore the noise, sleep well...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 19, 2022 17:23:53 GMT -8
It's hard to find a consistent and mechanical way to beat LTBH on AAPL (by a decent margin to make it worth it) in the past 5 years. schrts.co/bQFjzwcRAAPL went from ~30 to the current 166. Wow! (or go with ~ATH, call it 180, and you're at a 500% gain in 5 years, which simple math would have a hard time comprehending is a 43% annualized rate of return) For those of us that sometimes play a little on the side, it's tempting to find a way. I'm more like JD in that sense, that they'll give me money at such a low rate, there's almost no reason not to use it. At least a little....which can migrate into a decent amount, even when keeping from going too huge. 1.2-2%, while AAPL annualized above 20%. Like the movie, Bring it! As for RSI, I personally like it as a gauge, but looking at that 5 year chart above, it's not perfect. One book I read talked about letting it go above 70, and then wait until it backed down to 70. With AAPL, that might mean letting it go to 80, and wait to sell until it backed down to 60. The RSI is basically the accelerator, getting high when going all out. Backing off can be either from the stock diving, or just staying flat-ish. Likewise on the low end, AAPL gets down to 35 maybe twice a year. 30 is tougher. 25 is very seldom. AAPL doesn't normally stay down there long, but one option is waiting for the rebound, while patiently knowing that waiting for some upside means you won't be at the low. Just as waiting on the upside meant you wouldn't be at the top. Depending on how many trades you want to make in a 1-2 year period, you could tailor that. Personally, while I buy a little more AAPL on margin when I feel twitchy, the easier way to have a little fun on an infrequent basis is to pick up a little SPY or the like when it takes a quick hit. 8% off, quickly? It happens. But infrequently. I normally don't trade much in and out of AAPL anymore. While it is tempting, I'd probably mostly just accumulate, and go from 5-10% on margin, to 30-50%, and then I'd have issues on a dip. Been there, done that. And while it could work out, and would most of the time, that's the type of thing that manages to blow up decent sized funds. The reward just isn't there for me, for the risk. But playing with a little small money, even if it might be big money, can be entertaining. Especially if only being bullish, and with AAPL's track record.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
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Post by mark on Jan 19, 2022 18:18:26 GMT -8
Not at all surprising. Everyone is talking about the Nasdaq tech wreck. Just this morning I heard on CNBC something about how the Nasdaq dropped more in 2022 so far than it dropped in ANY full year since 2008. Blah blah blah .... they need something to talk about since they are on 24/7. Except the NASDAQ is only down about half a percent today...AAPL is down 5X that. 🤬 After the close they were all excited that Nasdaq is in "correction territory" ... down 10% from the high. Again, more blah blah blah. Apple is NOT down 10% from the high. Not yet at least.
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Post by deasys on Jan 19, 2022 21:04:50 GMT -8
Except the NASDAQ is only down about half a percent today...AAPL is down 5X that. 🤬 After the close they were all excited that Nasdaq is in "correction territory" ... down 10% from the high. Again, more blah blah blah. Apple is NOT down 10% from the high. Not yet at least. Right, it's only down 9.1% from the ATH. Sheesh…
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2022 8:16:16 GMT -8
After the close they were all excited that Nasdaq is in "correction territory" ... down 10% from the high. Again, more blah blah blah. Apple is NOT down 10% from the high. Not yet at least. Right, it's only down 9.1% from the ATH. Sheesh… If it doesn't tick someone's technically significant box, then it might not tick it in some trading AI, to be automatically or manually traded on. The difference seems fairly insignificant to me, but once it has to be programmed, some of the edge case logic is gone. Like automatic headlights for a car. You want them to turn on going into a temporary and quick situation like a tunnel or parking garage, but then they tend to flutter on and off with clouds or shadows in lower light situations. Taking the human interaction out of it means it's not likely going to behave "right" all the time. And with a stock, only getting to a 9.1% decline, a human has to override and say "buy buy buy".
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