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Post by aaplsauce on Jan 19, 2022 23:09:33 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 20, 2022 3:10:12 GMT -8
So, how long will it be until someone hacks into ID.me and steals our identities? Who’s to say that it isn’t our own government that does that hacking and selling. Mark Zuckerberg’s wet dream come true.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 20, 2022 7:08:08 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 20, 2022 7:15:29 GMT -8
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Post by audiosculpture12 on Jan 20, 2022 8:01:17 GMT -8
Bought a small amount on the dip.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 20, 2022 8:48:42 GMT -8
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Post by hledgard on Jan 20, 2022 11:08:47 GMT -8
Thoughtful, in-depth article about Apple Music. Especially enjoyed the diagram. Thanks chinacat !
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 20, 2022 11:09:08 GMT -8
One especially interesting set of numbers for me was “Huberty maintains her 12-month Apple price target of $200, which is based on a 5.7x enterprise value-to-sales (EV/Sales) multiple on Apple's product business and a 10.9x EV/Sales on Services.” For me that really captured how and why services have transformed the Apple business model. Once again, I have to say “Thanks, Tim.”
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 20, 2022 12:08:44 GMT -8
As a followup to yesterday's conversation about RSI, I wrote this back in December: Another thought: “sell” doesn’t mean sell all positions. For example, it could mean “sell covered calls.” If I sold covered calls every time the RSI hits 70, it would do extremely well.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 20, 2022 12:16:06 GMT -8
I think the lovers of volatility would love to see a miss from Apple. It will an interesting earnings report for sure.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 20, 2022 12:17:19 GMT -8
You have to factor in how much one pays in capital gains when called out. Plus your timing on buying back in.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2022 12:52:18 GMT -8
Speaking of capital gains, and keeping it LT instead of ST, I just bought back 3/4's of my Jan 135 covered calls that expire tomorrow. Covered calls are counted as short term, no matter the duration, so it seemed like the best option was to take the loss on a portion of them to just more than cancel out the ST gain I will have on the Sept '22 250's I wrote.
For the last 1/4, I'll let the expire, and use some LT shares with a cost basis less than 135. The ones I have in mind will give a decent but not too grand of a gain.
Along with managing ST vs LT, this also manages losses. Since I bought shares yesterday, and am thinking about buying more, if I took a loss on AAPL shares I would then have to deal with wash-sale rules.
Earlier today that "crazy" $160 figure I threw out seemed unlikely. After the stock made it pennies below 165, it seems possible, though still unlikely. While other factors are at play too (Senate, economy, unemployment, omicron, etc), this setup seems a lot like we've seen occasionally in the past few decades with AAPL into Jan expirations and earnings. Nothing is a sure thing, but I'm tempted here (bought back the options instead), and will be hard pressed to not buy more if in the $159-161 range. The upside, even if only looking for $200, seems pretty decent in this environment, and yet pretty doable.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 20, 2022 13:18:06 GMT -8
I'm not in NFLX, but watching it.
Shares down over 11% after top, bottom lines and subscriber add beat analysts estimates. Can someone help me see what I'm missing?
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Post by zebrum on Jan 20, 2022 13:41:58 GMT -8
-20% now, most other tech stocks red too, tomorrow might be the worst day in a long time. Buying opportunity!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 20, 2022 14:17:21 GMT -8
You have to factor in how much one pays in capital gains when called out. Plus your timing on buying back in. Cap gains are an issue but not really the timing of when to buy back / close the short position. When AAPL’s price hits 70 or 75 RSI, it always returns to a level below that price sometime in the future. At least in the last several years YMMV. In the latest cycle, it first hit that level when AAPL hit 165 in November. As it climbed, a lot of premium could have been collected by call sellers. When to buy back in? When it’s below 165 again. A few weeks ago, it would’ve seemed unlikely that the stock would be below 165 again, but here we are.
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Post by bud777 on Jan 20, 2022 15:07:35 GMT -8
Huberty seems to be one of the better analysts. and I tend to trust her predictions more than most. If the quarter really is a blowout, the 2023 comparison will be very, very, difficult. Even with the introduction of AR, it is hard to imagine a 3 million dollar company able to grow like it did when it was only a nimble 2.75 trillion-dollar company. I hate to be right again ( my last year prediction) but I think we might revisit 150 by the end of January. And then, of course, we will climb to 250 and beyond. I don't mind the stock dropping, but please God, spare me from the torturous drivel that masquerades as stock analysis.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 20, 2022 17:03:06 GMT -8
Huberty seems to be one of the better analysts. and I tend to trust her predictions more than most. If the quarter really is a blowout, the 2023 comparison will be very, very, difficult. Even with the introduction of AR, it is hard to imagine a 3 million dollar company able to grow like it did when it was only a nimble 2.75 trillion-dollar company. I hate to be right again ( my last year prediction) but I think we might revisit 150 by the end of January. And then, of course, we will climb to 250 and beyond. A hard compare is one of those wall of worry items. Sure, it can matter at some point. But if you really do beat, that should be unexpected, and there should be some growth. 12 months is a long time in daily stock movements. OTOH, that is assuming some form of rational movement, where things are related to results in somewhat real-time, whereas you have to figure out how much was anticipated but not put into an updated forecast, and how much was really a surprise. 150 isn't too much of a drop from here. 250 is a stretch....but 150 to 200 is the same sort of rise we saw in the last 11 or 12 months. And just looking at some of the notes I have, 145 ATH to 124 (or lower, seen last year) is a nice 15% decline. Never a straight line. The question is if Apple's growth slows, and the stock market in general slows, is it worthwhile to get part of the 25-30% potential, instead of the 10% growth from ATH to ATH (~183 to 200?)? 200 from 160 is 25%. From 150 is 33%. Go the other way and write puts near the bottom? Or write calls near the top? Both are somewhat dependent on what "near" ends up being. It all depends on what you are after. Maybe it's Alpha? Or maybe it's just a little entertainment, to help justify spending so many hours looking at things. Or maybe it is a waste of time. Apple and AAPL has done extremely well for decades. As long as you have been bullish, in one way or another, it has paid off handsomely.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 20, 2022 17:41:09 GMT -8
I know people here don't believe in technicals, but my WAG is it AAPL will find a bottom in the 155-158 area over the next few weeks. On the weekly chart, there's a pivot trendline that's served as strong support since the pandemic lows, and that's the price where the stock will meet that trendline.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 20, 2022 18:57:50 GMT -8
As a followup to yesterday's conversation about RSI, I wrote this back in December: Another thought: “sell” doesn’t mean sell all positions. For example, it could mean “sell covered calls.” If I sold covered calls every time the RSI hits 70, it would do extremely well. But is that really true? What if the shares are called away the first time you sell those covered calls? Then next time, they aren't covered anymore!
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Post by silkstone on Jan 21, 2022 10:45:02 GMT -8
I know it’s a simplistic pov but but by me selling 5000 shares of Apple inside my ira at $180, I’m saving 5k every time apple drops a buck.
Since I’ve already made 25 times my money in this investment and I’m 66 years old, there is no reason to just stay in and ride it out as I would have years ago.
I have a couple friends who have lost millions and I am determined to learn from their mistakes.
But, I also understand the buy and hold strategy for Apple stock, it has worked in the past and I’m sure it will continue to work. I’ll be getting back in at some point in the future.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 21, 2022 11:05:59 GMT -8
I know it’s a simplistic pov but but by me selling 5000 shares of Apple inside my ira at $180, I’m saving 5k every time apple drops a buck. Since I’ve already made 25 times my money in this investment and I’m 66 years old, there is no reason to just stay in and ride it out as I would have years ago. I'm curious, after you sell the Apple shares, where do you invest the money? I mean, that $900,000 in the IRA has to go somewhere!
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Post by silkstone on Jan 21, 2022 12:30:44 GMT -8
I know it’s a simplistic pov but but by me selling 5000 shares of Apple inside my ira at $180, I’m saving 5k every time apple drops a buck. Since I’ve already made 25 times my money in this investment and I’m 66 years old, there is no reason to just stay in and ride it out as I would have years ago. I'm curious, after you sell the Apple shares, where do you invest the money? I mean, that $900,000 in the IRA has to go somewhere! I let it sit in the money market fund or as cash. It stays in the ira so there is no taxable gain until I take it out of the ira. It’s true that I’m taking a hit due to the 7% inflation but I prefer to look at it as: “I just saved myself 5000x15 = 75k” it’s easy to say I got lucky on my exit point but like most of you, I’ve watched this stock every day for many years and at this point, when I have a strong feeling one way or another, I trust my instincts and sometimes I act on them. Been wrong many times in the past but I do believe it’s always okay to realize a gain. When it feels like a good time, I’ll get back into Apple. It’s a relatively safe investment and a great, well run company with products that people love and no legitimate competition imo. What more could you ask for in a long term investment.
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