|
Post by aaplsauce on Jan 20, 2022 21:27:00 GMT -8
|
|
Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
|
Post by Dave on Jan 21, 2022 3:18:45 GMT -8
|
|
chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
|
Post by chinacat on Jan 21, 2022 6:18:16 GMT -8
|
|
|
Post by zebrum on Jan 21, 2022 7:36:44 GMT -8
Time to go shopping!
|
|
|
Post by artman1033 on Jan 21, 2022 7:49:25 GMT -8
Apple Inc. (AAPL 165 ****): CFRA maintains our Buy opinion. We reiterate our 12-month target of $200, on P/E of 31.3x our CY 23 EPS view of $6.39, above peers given its pipeline and FCF potential. We keep our FY 22 EPS (Sep.) estimate at $5.68 and FY 23 at $6.20. AAPL is set to report Dec-Q results after the close on January 27. Despite fears about growth- oriented tech names amid a rising interest rate environment, we believe AAPL’s attractive FCF ($100B+ annually), strong balance sheet, and robust pipeline warrant its existing multiple/provides a safe haven. here
www.cfraresearch.com
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2022 9:49:14 GMT -8
Volume is pretty good. This may be one of those crazy days with a strong push down in the last 15/30/60/90 minutes. If tempted to buy at a good price, consider figuring it out and having the order in, just in case it gets there. Max pain is now 155, but 160 looks a lot more plausible and likely. swaggystocks.com/dashboard/options-max-pain/AAPL
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 21, 2022 10:53:02 GMT -8
This is a very serious threat. Without going all political, I'll just say this: Big Tech, Apple included, should be a lot more cognizant of the enemies it makes with totally gratuitous, non-business practices (e.g., censorship, bias against certain groups or viewpoints, etc). It should concern every investor that Apple is apparently so disliked, that this this extremely polarized Senate can somehow agree on moving a bill (co-sponsored by a Dem and a Republican) forward that impacts it negatively. WTF happened?! So all those who want to praise Tim Cook, no, he is utterly failing at protecting Apple's image. So he makes a phone call the week this bill is being debated in conference? How about making friends in DC long before this shit even makes it to committee? What is so sad is, Republicans are a natural free market, laissez faire on antitrust types, but they despise Big Tech, including Apple. None of the pundits on my side of the aisle are defending Apple (recall that Rush Limbaugh was a big Apple guy). And Dems are of course natural pro-regulation and antitrust people. And now both sides of the aisle seem to want to take a chainsaw to Big Tech. This should concern everyone. Hopefully, Tim can buy off some senators the same way he bought off China and India - with some factory promises in their states. But I think this is a larger issue; Apple should court both sides of the political spectrum in a 50-50 country, because enemies tend to have longer memories than friends.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
|
Post by mark on Jan 21, 2022 11:10:11 GMT -8
Volume is pretty good. This may be one of those crazy days with a strong push down in the last 15/30/60/90 minutes. If tempted to buy at a good price, consider figuring it out and having the order in, just in case it gets there. Max pain is now 155, but 160 looks a lot more plausible and likely. swaggystocks.com/dashboard/options-max-pain/AAPLInteresting how "max pain" can change significantly from day to day, just look at the last 3 days. Therefore, it is possible that during the trading day today, until the close when the price is set for option expiry, the "max pain" can move as well.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2022 12:13:00 GMT -8
Volume is pretty good. This may be one of those crazy days with a strong push down in the last 15/30/60/90 minutes. If tempted to buy at a good price, consider figuring it out and having the order in, just in case it gets there. Max pain is now 155, but 160 looks a lot more plausible and likely. swaggystocks.com/dashboard/options-max-pain/AAPLInteresting how "max pain" can change significantly from day to day, just look at the last 3 days. Therefore, it is possible that during the trading day today, until the close when the price is set for option expiry, the "max pain" can move as well. Definitely. Especially with those of use closing out well ITM positions. But even so, the theory depends on at least one side of the position doing something about it. If I just sat on my position, ready to sell the underlying shares, then my side wouldn't matter. If the other side was just an individual investor, happy and willing to take shares at 135, then that side wouldn't matter either. Without much known about the total makeup of the positions, it's hard to know. If I was making the theory, I'd probably discount long-held or long-existance positions, so that maybe something open for more than a year only has a 50% weighting, whereas new OI within the past 3 months are at full weight. Like the statistics quote (some are useful), the same can be said about theories, especially with options. Similar to technicals, they aren't a sure thing, but sometimes they point something out. I like to think in the long term that Apple's fundamentals drive the stock. But over the past 24 years I have owned AAPL, I know there are plenty of times where in the short and even mid term, the stock can be controlled by other things. These 2-4-6 weeks are that timeframe. A week or two past earnings the actual numbers should have more pull. But this time period, and especially today, all bets are off. Especially if volume goes big.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2022 13:01:37 GMT -8
Bought the dip at 162.53.
Not quite 160, but still impressive. This is the stretching of the rubber band. We'll see if it flings upward next week, before or after earnings.
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
|
Post by mark on Jan 21, 2022 14:39:19 GMT -8
Bought the dip at 162.53. Not quite 160, but still impressive. This is the stretching of the rubber band. We'll see if it flings upward next week, before or after earnings. My gut is telling me that next week has a 50/50 chance of being nasty. Yet, I still purchased some more $VTI just after the close today. Small amount, but still.
|
|
|
Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 21, 2022 15:02:26 GMT -8
Bought the dip at 162.53. Not quite 160, but still impressive. This is the stretching of the rubber band. We'll see if it flings upward next week, before or after earnings. I too hope this the the bottom and have been loading up. But be careful, it can get a lot more stretched… Imagine it continuing down to 145 or lower, and it would still be at a higher PE than we were used to a few years ago.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2022 15:16:31 GMT -8
Bought the dip at 162.53. Not quite 160, but still impressive. This is the stretching of the rubber band. We'll see if it flings upward next week, before or after earnings. I too hope this the the bottom and have been loading up. But be careful, it can get a lot more stretched… Imagine it continuing down to 145 or lower, and it would still be at a higher PE than we were used to a few years ago. Yep, lots of possibilities. Especially since this wasn't just AAPL, but pretty wide. The head fakes normally only last 2-3 days. The problem is separating the fake from one that is going to go further. My odds are on a good economy and cheap money without new outside influences making this a fake. But if things change, some outside influence happens, companies start posting bad results, or a couple big players choose to mess with things a bit, then a much greater move is possible. The Nasdaq is off just a hair less than 15% from it's top. S&P is 9%. AAPL is 11%. In the longer term, it's good to have some volatility to knock the bubbles out. It's like having some boiling flakes in chemistry class while keeping a liquid from superheating, or a glass measuring cup in the microwave that isn't perfectly clean, getting the water boiling instead of getting too hot and then exploding everywhere. It makes it all a bit more manageable, a bit more controlled. ...of course, I'd be a bit more concerned if I was invested in a company that didn't have earnings (I think Cramer called them Zombie Companies), or that I couldn't wait out for years if this did turn into a dip regardless of earnings.
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2022 15:18:50 GMT -8
My gut is telling me that next week has a 50/50 chance of being nasty. I like those odds! It's going to be volatile. The question is if it's going to be a checkmark (quick dip first thing Monday, then grinding upwards), a W double dip for pre/post earnings, or what. I haven't bought straight options or spreads in quite a few years, but this might be a good time forsome. I don't expect it to be a boring week
|
|
4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
|
Post by 4aapl on Jan 21, 2022 16:52:33 GMT -8
Off-topic PSA
If you haven't yet, consider getting the covid booster vaccine.
One of our kids had covid this week, along with a friend. Another had it last week. All 3 were fully vaccinated, but not yet boosted since the kids booster just got approved. All did fine as far as not going to the hospital....but they are kids, were fully vaccinated, and generally do ok. Still, feeling bad for 3+ days while having to be home for 5 isn't fun. And puking, or feeling bad enough that you want to stay home, not just that you have to stay home, is something you'd like to avoid. Even during finals week.
(My wife and I were tested this week, along with our son. Looks like the booster has helped us not get sick, even with a rotating squad of kids home sick with it)
Your call. But even a mild case is still something. Unless you are completely against vaccinations, which I can now somewhat understand when comparing to those wanting to only eat organic food, consider taking the time to get your booster. Especially if you are in a user base that would benefit the most from avoiding Covid.
|
|
|
Post by hledgard on Jan 21, 2022 17:44:11 GMT -8
Nice post 4aapl ! Thoughtful, and very nicely written.
|
|
|
Post by macster on Jan 23, 2022 13:52:12 GMT -8
Since the subject has come up and having a non political aspect, this was a interesting and fair minded program I viewed today. Long but educational. youtu.be/pA_wJGjaGpo
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jan 23, 2022 14:45:42 GMT -8
Since the subject has come up and having a non political aspect, this was a interesting and fair minded program I viewed today. Long but educational. youtu.be/pA_wJGjaGpo Oh, please, macster...I would *never* include this hugely biased video(No masks, no vaccine card, no mandate...etc) as in anyway similar to 4aapl's recommendation to " consider getting the covid booster vaccine". Remember this thread, " Coronavirus *Information/Update* Thread - No Politics"? This is what I stated in the first post: === I'm opening this thread for information and updates regarding the coronavirus threat and I'm purposely keeping it out of the Dungeon so that it will remain free of any trace of politics. Please post any information or updates about coronavirus that you consider to be of value, but please insure the item is politics-free before posting, so no additional effort will be required from our moderators. Thanks! === I started the thread on 03/18/20 to provide an opportunity for AFB to share information which might help keep us all safe. The thread seemed to work pretty well up until early August of last year, when you and a couple of others started to add political commentary to the thread to help kill it. And sure enough, before the month was out, the thread was killed. How about being a responsible person and remove your "non-political" comment that should have never been posted?
|
|
|
Post by macster on Jan 23, 2022 15:47:08 GMT -8
Since the subject has come up and having a non political aspect, this was a interesting and fair minded program I viewed today. Long but educational. youtu.be/pA_wJGjaGpo Oh, please, macster...I would *never* include this hugely biased video(No masks, no vaccine card, no mandate...etc) as in anyway similar to 4aapl's recommendation to " consider getting the covid booster vaccine". Remember this thread, " Coronavirus *Information/Update* Thread - No Politics"? This is what I stated in the first post: === I'm opening this thread for information and updates regarding the coronavirus threat and I'm purposely keeping it out of the Dungeon so that it will remain free of any trace of politics. Please post any information or updates about coronavirus that you consider to be of value, but please insure the item is politics-free before posting, so no additional effort will be required from our moderators. Thanks! === I started the thread on 03/18/20 to provide an opportunity for AFB to share information which might help keep us all safe. The thread seemed to work pretty well up until early August of last year, when you and a couple of others started to add political commentary to the thread to help kill it. And sure enough, before the month was out, the thread was killed. View AttachmentHow about being a responsible person and remove your "non-political" comment that should have never been posted? Closed mind and tribal.…..I’m sorry for you. You watched the opening 30 seconds without understanding. Can’t help you then.
|
|
|
Post by Luckychoices on Jan 23, 2022 16:42:31 GMT -8
Oh, please, macster...I would *never* include this hugely biased video(No masks, no vaccine card, no mandate...etc) as in anyway similar to 4aapl's recommendation to " consider getting the covid booster vaccine". Remember this thread, " Coronavirus *Information/Update* Thread - No Politics"? This is what I stated in the first post: === I'm opening this thread for information and updates regarding the coronavirus threat and I'm purposely keeping it out of the Dungeon so that it will remain free of any trace of politics. Please post any information or updates about coronavirus that you consider to be of value, but please insure the item is politics-free before posting, so no additional effort will be required from our moderators. Thanks! === I started the thread on 03/18/20 to provide an opportunity for AFB to share information which might help keep us all safe. The thread seemed to work pretty well up until early August of last year, when you and a couple of others started to add political commentary to the thread to help kill it. And sure enough, before the month was out, the thread was killed. <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> How about being a responsible person and remove your "non-political" comment that should have never been posted? Closed mind and tribal.…..I’m sorry for you. You watched the opening 30 seconds without understanding. Can’t help you then. Good...be sorry for me. But if you and your friends wouldn't have *purposely* killed the "No Politics COVID thread", you would have been welcome to post it there. However, fair-minded and educational it is not. In just the opening 30 seconds, Dr. Damania says, " I’ve argued that we’re already in the phase where every single societal mandate and restriction should be removed. There should be no vaccine passports…there should be no mandates…there should be no mask mandates…every single individual can make a decision now." Can't make it much more clear than that. Personally, I couldn't care less if unvaccinated people want to mingle with each other in a setting that's clearly a perfect setting for passing on the virus. But there are many others, like myself, who would prefer to *not* be exposed to a virus that might make them very sick, cause them to be hospitalized or worse. Certainly you're aware there are *already* requirements in place to protect people from dangerous afflictions. In most public schools, getting vaccinated is a *requirement* for attendance. Just look at all those vaccine requirements: The mask mandates that exist are obviously not to protect those who feel their "Freedom" is being threatened...they're to help protect those who believe in taking no chances with a deadly virus. A 25 MPH speed limit in a school zone certainly impinges on the "Freedom" of those who want to drive 60 MPH, but it *helps* protect children, adult pedestrians and other drivers.
|
|
|
Post by macster on Jan 24, 2022 6:36:29 GMT -8
Closed mind and tribal.…..I’m sorry for you. You watched the opening 30 seconds without understanding. Can’t help you then. Good...be sorry for me. But if you and your friends wouldn't have *purposely* killed the "No Politics COVID thread", you would have been welcome to post it there. However, fair-minded and educational it is not. In just the opening 30 seconds, Dr. Damania says, " I’ve argued that we’re already in the phase where every single societal mandate and restriction should be removed. There should be no vaccine passports…there should be no mandates…there should be no mask mandates…every single individual can make a decision now." Can't make it much more clear than that. Personally, I couldn't care less if unvaccinated people want to mingle with each other in a setting that's clearly a perfect setting for passing on the virus. But there are many others, like myself, who would prefer to *not* be exposed to a virus that might make them very sick, cause them to be hospitalized or worse. Certainly you're aware there are *already* requirements in place to protect people from dangerous afflictions. In most public schools, getting vaccinated is a *requirement* for attendance. Just look at all those vaccine requirements: View Attachment The mask mandates that exist are obviously not to protect those who feel their "Freedom" is being threatened...they're to help protect those who believe in taking no chances with a deadly virus. A 25 MPH speed limit in a school zone certainly impinges on the "Freedom" of those who want to drive 60 MPH, but it *helps* protect children, adult pedestrians and other drivers. There’s no politics in my post. The UK just removed most restrictions www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/uk-lifts-all-remaining-covid-restrictions-despite-cases-surging.htmlPs late edit: by the way I respect your opinion.
|
|
JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
|
Post by JDSoCal on Jan 25, 2022 12:22:20 GMT -8
Good...be sorry for me. But if you and your friends wouldn't have *purposely* killed the "No Politics COVID thread", you would have been welcome to post it there. However, fair-minded and educational it is not. In just the opening 30 seconds, Dr. Damania says, " I’ve argued that we’re already in the phase where every single societal mandate and restriction should be removed. There should be no vaccine passports…there should be no mandates…there should be no mask mandates…every single individual can make a decision now." Can't make it much more clear than that. Personally, I couldn't care less if unvaccinated people want to mingle with each other in a setting that's clearly a perfect setting for passing on the virus. But there are many others, like myself, who would prefer to *not* be exposed to a virus that might make them very sick, cause them to be hospitalized or worse. Certainly you're aware there are *already* requirements in place to protect people from dangerous afflictions. In most public schools, getting vaccinated is a *requirement* for attendance. Just look at all those vaccine requirements: <button disabled="" class="c-attachment-insert--linked o-btn--sm">Attachment Deleted</button> The mask mandates that exist are obviously not to protect those who feel their "Freedom" is being threatened...they're to help protect those who believe in taking no chances with a deadly virus. A 25 MPH speed limit in a school zone certainly impinges on the "Freedom" of those who want to drive 60 MPH, but it *helps* protect children, adult pedestrians and other drivers. There’s no politics in my post. The UK just removed most restrictions www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/uk-lifts-all-remaining-covid-restrictions-despite-cases-surging.htmlPs late edit: by the way I respect your opinion. And the CDC just admitted that all those cloth masks they initially recommended are essentially bullshit, bEcAuSe ScIeNcE. This after Fauci originally said there was no need for masks in the first place. And BTW LuckyChoices, all those vaccines you list are fully FDA approved and we have decades of peer reviewed science to back them up. They are not rushed vaccines under emergency approval based on an entirely new technology (RNA). The corner stone of science is doubt. The cornerstone of religion is faith. Which one does the "only post approved messages from our High Priest Fauci" sound like?
|
|
mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
|
Post by mark on Jan 26, 2022 4:57:33 GMT -8
My gut is telling me that next week has a 50/50 chance of being nasty. I like those odds! It's going to be volatile. The question is if it's going to be a checkmark (quick dip first thing Monday, then grinding upwards), a W double dip for pre/post earnings, or what. I haven't bought straight options or spreads in quite a few years, but this might be a good time forsome. I don't expect it to be a boring week 50/50 for nasty are HUGE odds. Considering that we get nasty weeks only once every few years, ....
|
|
|
Post by macster on Jan 26, 2022 9:31:21 GMT -8
|
|