chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 22, 2022 8:23:18 GMT -8
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 23, 2022 7:58:08 GMT -8
Thanks for opening the post. Correction: Apple’s results are scheduled for Thursday, January 27, 2022 at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. Tough few weeks: growth needed to get back to *closing* ATH 0.110 growth needed to get back to ATH 0.126 But, it's only dropped back to the ~value on December 3rd. A few friends recently asked me whether they should "sell everything!" My answer... How Long it Took for the Stock Market to Recover In 7 of the 11 drops, it only took one year for the S&P 500 to recover to its previous all-time high price. In the most extreme drop, it took 8 years for S&P 500 prices to recover after the dot-com bubble burst in 2000, which was immediately followed by the crash of 2008. Following that [2008] crash, it took about 6 years for prices to recover to their previous all-time highs. An article with charts and summary. How Long Do Stock Market Corrections Last? | The Motley Fool When will it end?
www.fool.com/investing/2018/04/11/how-long-do-stock-market-corrections-last.aspx Using data from Yardeni Research, which lists the calendar days between the peak and trough of each correction, here are the lengths of each of the 36 corrections of at least 10% since 1950 in the S&P 500.
A table showing all 36 corrections in the S&P 500 since 1950. DATA SOURCE: YARDENI RESEARCH. TABLE BY AUTHOR. CORRECTION LENGTH LISTED IN CALENDAR DAYS. RED REPRESENTS CORRECTIONS LASTING LONGER THAN 365 DAYS, YELLOW BETWEEN 120 AND 365 DAYS, AND GREEN LESS THAN 120 DAYS.
The color coding above represents red for extended corrections of one year or more, yellow for those that lasted an intermediate amount of time (between four months and a year), and green for those corrections that lasted fewer than four months.
Cumulatively, the S&P 500 has spent 7,040 days declining in correction since 1950. Given that there have been 36 corrections, the average correction time is about 196 calendar days over the past 68 years.
Key stock market correction takeaways over the past 68 years But there's more to this data than meets the eye.
First off, you'll note that we've had seven extended corrections, five of which turned into bear market drops of at least 20% (another missed becoming a bear market by just 1%). Though not all bear markets necessarily take a lot of time to resolve (see 1987), more often than not, bear markets lead to extended or intermediate-term corrections. But, once again, we'll never know ahead of time if a correction will turn into a bear market.
You know what also stands out? The number of green rectangles, and their proportion on the right side of the data table compared to the left. First off, this signifies that 22 of the 36 corrections (61%) in the S&P 500 since 1950 tend to be over with quickly. This means, on average, we only get an extended or intermediate-term correction about once every five years, assuming we stick to the averages, which the stock market usually does not.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 23, 2022 8:08:21 GMT -8
Katy Huberty. Morgan Stanley said it would be a buyer on any weakness post-earnings, as it views Apple as a more "defensive/quality outperformer" in challenging markets. The company's 1.65 billion+ installed base with high loyalty/retention rates, underweight institutional positioning, along with strong capital returns and the tendency for it to outperform ahead of product cycles make the firm positive on Apple stock, Morgan Stanley noted.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 23, 2022 12:06:03 GMT -8
Futures for Monday are looking extremely RED. Keep dry powder at the ready, but don't be too eager - this could last (a lot) longer...
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 23, 2022 14:03:26 GMT -8
This is what's keeping me up this weekend. This month's trading action is giving me deja vu back to January 2008. 2007 was a great year for AAPL, with the stock rising over 100%. Then, as soon as the ball dropped to welcome in 2008, the stock dropped as well. It cut through all moving averages and support levels and would eventually drop by more than half. The chart of 2007-Jan 2008 look incredibly similar to 2021-Jan 2022.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 23, 2022 16:26:44 GMT -8
Daunting.
Can you add some more color for us non-chartist- non-familairist?
What AAPL price range are you anticipating?
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 23, 2022 17:19:49 GMT -8
I think of technicals not as predictive but probabilistic.
Throughout the uptrend since April 2020, the probability of a market breakdown was minimal. Fed support for the markets was strong, so any dips were minor. Algorithms and active traders made technicals highly predictive, and bounces occurred at predictable support levels.
But in December, Fed officials signaled a clear change in strategy -- they're going to stop supporting the markets in order to focus on combatting inflation. Add to that the pundit consensus that increased interest rates are bad for tech, and you've got the ingredients for a Nasdaq breakdown we've been experiencing.
Since then, the technical patterns have broken down. People want to lock in their gains or limit their losses, so they're starting to run for the exits.
The question is, is this simply a healthy correction ahead of a continued uptrend? Or is this something different, an end to the bull run that will create a massive crash?
No one knows. But the more support levels that get taken out, the lower the probability that we'll see all time highs again soon and the higher the probability of a continued downturn. Bulls want to see a bounce ASAP and no more lows taken out. Sideways would be fine as long as we don't go lower than the lows recently established.
Apple is one of the healthiest companies around from a fundamental perspective. But we've seen how the market can devalue AAPL stock when the animal spirits of the market are grumpy.
And yes, long term everything should be fine. Even if AAPL loses 50% of its value it will recover eventually.
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Ted
fire starter
Posts: 882
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Post by Ted on Jan 23, 2022 17:49:40 GMT -8
Futures for Monday are looking extremely RED. Keep dry powder at the ready, but don't be too eager - this could last (a lot) longer... But now futures are green. Go figure.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 23, 2022 18:00:39 GMT -8
In the never ending process of sorting, I came across two newspapers with headline stories regarding Apple that I wanted to share with AFB members. One headline was about Steve Jobs stepping down as Apple CEO and the other was about the upcoming opening of Apple Park in Cupertino, California. The first story is obviously a painful one to read because we know Steve passed away in early October of 2011, a little over a month after stepping down. Steve Jobs resigns as Apple CEOThe second headline/story was about the completion of Apple Park in Cupertino, California. My wife and I live a little over 3 miles from Apple Park so I was able to drive by during its long construction and see some of the incredible work that was taking place. It's worth taking the time to read the story that was on the front page that day in 2017. It gives a nice overview of the neighborhood perspective of the Apple Park construction and some comments about Steve. There's also a great photo of the building under construction which was probably taken from a drone. The Spaceship is Ready For Liftoff
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 23, 2022 19:49:34 GMT -8
MJ all the Paper?
At the moment I'm a little down on my analytic skills. What does your note on the front of the paper mean?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 23, 2022 19:56:15 GMT -8
I think of technicals not as predictive but probabilistic. Throughout the uptrend since April 2020, the probability of a market breakdown was minimal. Fed support for the markets was strong, so any dips were minor. Algorithms and active traders made technicals highly predictive, and bounces occurred at predictable support levels. But in December, Fed officials signaled a clear change in strategy -- they're going to stop supporting the markets in order to focus on combatting inflation. Add to that the pundit consensus that increased interest rates are bad for tech, and you've got the ingredients for a Nasdaq breakdown we've been experiencing. Since then, the technical patterns have broken down. People want to lock in their gains or limit their losses, so they're starting to run for the exits. The question is, is this simply a healthy correction ahead of a continued uptrend? Or is this something different, an end to the bull run that will create a massive crash? No one knows. But the more support levels that get taken out, the lower the probability that we'll see all time highs again soon and the higher the probability of a continued downturn. Bulls want to see a bounce ASAP and no more lows taken out. Sideways would be fine as long as we don't go lower than the lows recently established. Apple is one of the healthiest companies around from a fundamental perspective. But we've seen how the market can devalue AAPL stock when the animal spirits of the market are grumpy. And yes, long term everything should be fine. Even if AAPL loses 50% of its value it will recover eventually. Any thoughts on odds? This doesn't seem like the bubbly top of 2000 or 2008, with all the articles basically saying to go all in, talking of how much money people are making. It sounds like the same thing, during the tulip mania and 1929, of so much talk that people that cautiously got out, got back in. Crazy bubbly tops aren't the only tops out there. But they are the biggest, and the wildest. I long for a flash-crash, or a brexit, or even a Covid, nice and quick, with only the jumpiest people getting out. Still, it seems like this time around we are due for a bubbly top. It's been a while, and values are up. But, if so, it just doesn't seem like we are there yet. What do you think? A quick top could happen anytime, and is the impetus to draw things in a little on a little volatility. But what are your guesses, this time around?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 23, 2022 20:14:02 GMT -8
Futures for Monday are looking extremely RED. Keep dry powder at the ready, but don't be too eager - this could last (a lot) longer... But now futures are green. Go figure. Where do you look? FWIW, finance.yahoo.com/news/iphone-assembler-hon-hai-expects-020239386.htmlWe bought an SE watch in FY Q4, and a 13 pro iPhone though that might have technically been Q3. We also picked up a nintendo switch, after finding availability al a local-to-vacation site. Like the home contractor business, we've heard that it's key to "get it while you can". This last stretch has gone since 2010, and some kept going through 2009, but it's really popping now. Good to know someone in the business, when we suddenly have a need, and a want. I can see Foxconn wanting to keep on hitting on all cylinders while it can. Even so, it seems like a good sign for Apple, a vote of confidence.
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Post by Luckychoices on Jan 23, 2022 22:43:08 GMT -8
MJ all the Paper? At the moment I'm a little down on my analytic skills. What does your note on the front of the paper mean? I'm guessing your analytical skills are just fine...and they couldn't have helped you with this one anyway. It's my Mother-in-law's note to her daughter using the initials of my wife's first and middle names. 😊
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