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Post by aaplsauce on Jan 24, 2022 22:45:18 GMT -8
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 25, 2022 8:10:50 GMT -8
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Post by macster on Jan 25, 2022 8:41:35 GMT -8
Why I’m long and don’t sweat these $300000 drops. Although I do know what that amount can buy me. But…I don’t need the dough right now and sleep well or else I’d be wondering whether or when to get back in with out ending with less shares than before. I don’t do options.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 25, 2022 8:52:58 GMT -8
I do believe that it is time for another dividend bump, and I am hoping for a bit more generous bump this time, considering how profitable the past year has been. I believe their dividend bump has historically been around the Q2 earnings timeframe. Looking back at the last 5 years of bumps, it's been 7.3%, 6.5%, 5.5%, 16% and 10.5%, from most recent to furthest back. None of those bumps would make much of a difference on the overall dividend rate. Even with the stock price down a bit, the rate is currently 0.54%. So a 100% increase would only get it to just over 1%. Still, I expect a "pay increase" of 6-8% this year. At some point Apple might decide to break out of this dividend range, and 1-2% would be nice. It is much more directly visible as to what you are getting from it, as opposed to tossing more money at share buybacks, or even other uses for cash like buying a small company we likely never hear of. But I imagine that Apple can do a better job of deciding where to put its resources than I can as an outsider. There may be bumps with the stock, and occasional bumps with the company. But overall it has worked out well, for Apple and for investors. Thanks Apple!
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 25, 2022 9:05:09 GMT -8
I believe their dividend bump has historically been around the Q2 earnings timeframe. You are, of course, correct. I guess that I am just impatient due to being underwhelmed with the last couple of increases, considering their financial and stock price performance. Perhaps I am just spoiled.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 25, 2022 9:05:14 GMT -8
Why I’m long and don’t sweat these $300000 drops. Although I do know what that amount can buy me. But…I don’t need the dough right now and sleep well or else I’d be wondering whether or when to get back in with out ending with less shares than before. I don’t do options. Last night when my son was getting ready for bed, he had a question. "So, if we are invested in a company, does that mean we own part of it?" "Yes" "So we own part of Apple. Like 1%?" "Not that much" "No. Like 1%. I mean out of 100" "Well, Apple was recently worth $3 Trillion. 1% of that would be $30 Billion. We don't own that much." "Ahhhh. Got it." The up days make up for the down days. Big down days are tough if you focus on them, especially as the dollar figure gets large. At the same time, the large up days can get you dreaming a little too much, a little too euphoric. Still, I look forward to euphoric days, and hope that we don't have to wait too long for them (even if realistically I think we might, even with good earnings but limited guidance).
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Jan 25, 2022 9:37:11 GMT -8
It looks like Mr. Market is waiting on J. Powell to say something.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 25, 2022 9:38:35 GMT -8
I believe their dividend bump has historically been around the Q2 earnings timeframe. You are, of course, correct. I guess that I am just impatient due to being underwhelmed with the last couple of increases, considering their financial and stock price performance. Perhaps I am just spoiled. I'm sometimes bugged that they didn't keep the total rate up. Didn't it start as 1.7% or something? ... Ok, that was a wormhole. Apparently I didn't keep as many notes then. But it's looking like at the date of the first dividend in the current age of AAPL dividends (August 2012), it was 1.7%. finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history?period1=1327449600&period2=1345852800&interval=1d&filter=history&frequency=1d&includeAdjustedClose=trueinvestor.apple.com/dividend-history/default.aspxMaybe someday AAPL's dividend rate will be back there, but I hope it's from a massive increase in the underlying dividend, instead of a decrease in the stock price. Until then, I hope AAPL keeps on chugging. 20% annualized can't go on forever, but staying ahead of the market should keep going over the longer term, and seems likely for the next 5 and possibly 10 years. Looking back, I bought my first shares more than 24 years ago. During that time, the total splits work out to a 1 to 112 multiplier (1:4, 1:7, 1:2 and 1:2), making that initial $15 9/16 about 13.9 cents a share. Using today's $158 and 24 years, that's an annualized return of 34%. WOW! The dividend rate is like Steve's old $1 salary, or whatever Tim's or Elon's salary is these day. That's not where the real money is.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 25, 2022 10:45:05 GMT -8
The dividend rate is like Steve's old $1 salary, or whatever Tim's or Elon's salary is these day. That's not where the real money is. Fair enough, but those are the only benefits of being dedicated shareholders that provide some short term gratification. We are about to reach the pandemic-delayed point of mandatory withdrawals from our professionally-managed IRA’s, so that will fill in the “gap.” Now don’t get me wrong, neither of us goes without anything that we really want. But things like trips to see the LA son and his family, or her two West Coast brothers and their families, require funding for which we would rather not liquidate any of our investments. We have been very fortunate and are grateful for that, so I am not looking for sympathy. I’m just saying that Apple can certainly afford to provide a bit more in direct cash benefits for its dedicated, long-term shareholders.
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Post by socal Film Composer on Jan 25, 2022 11:33:32 GMT -8
Corrections arenever "fun" but a necessary part of market health - bull markets climb a wall of worry - even corrections of 10% or more - having said that - the past two days trading bowl like patterns would suggest seller exhaustion - here's hoping ... looking forward to earnings, good luck all.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 25, 2022 11:34:37 GMT -8
The dividend rate is like Steve's old $1 salary, or whatever Tim's or Elon's salary is these day. That's not where the real money is. Fair enough, but those are the only benefits of being dedicated shareholders that provide some short term gratification. We are about to reach the pandemic-delayed point of mandatory withdrawals from our professionally-managed IRA’s, so that will fill in the “gap.” Now don’t get me wrong, neither of us goes without anything that we really want. But things like trips to see the LA son and his family, or her two West Coast brothers and their families, require funding for which we would rather not liquidate any of our investments. We have been very fortunate and are grateful for that, so I am not looking for sympathy. I’m just saying that Apple can certainly afford to provide a bit more in direct cash benefits for its dedicated, long-term shareholders. I can understand that. While we are very fortunate that the dividend is greater than our current needs, due to the ability to borrow at minuscule rates, we just transfer money when we need it. Margin costs are even deductible as an investment expense, though you have to both itemize and have investment gains (preferably short term, but you can choose to use long term) to utilize it. But the expenses carry forward, so you can stack them up for years if you don't normally have taxable gains, or don't normally itemize. That is using margin, which I try to be careful suggesting to people. It has gotten me in trouble a few times when using too much, but now that I use much more moderate percentages I haven't had any problems with it in more than a decade. If you choose to use margin, make sure you get good rates. Interactive Brokers has amazingly low rates, but other places will usually match or nearly match them if you ask. Especially for any of their good clientele, which should include any long term AAPL investor. Basically you should be getting mortgage rate levels (~3.5%?) on moderate borrowing levels, and 2% or less on large amounts. We borrow at 1.2%, which is almost as low as IB's best levels. For us we justify it to ourselves since we use it instead of traditional mortgages. It is an option. I don't suggest it in large amounts, if you prefer to not borrow, or if it makes you uncomfortable. But it is one way, if you want/need a little float between dividend payments, before a RMD, or before a sale that you plan to make. Separately, how have the professionally-managed IRA's done? I wouldn't compare them to individual stocks (talk about a tough compare), but in compared to your goals or benchmarks (maybe a 30/30/30/10 split between the S&P, Nasdaq, Russel, and some bonds...though personally I don't like bonds), how have they done and have the fees been worth it? AAPL is pennies below breakeven for the day. I would have liked to see double the volume. Without that, and with a few things in the air including the FED, Russia, and earnings, it's hard to even guess too much as the short to mid term. (EDIT: another option is writing options, specifically covered calls. Don't do that near a bottom. And set it high enough that you would at least in theory be ok selling shares. Sometimes with AAPL, setting them 30% annualized out of the money still gets hit, and stings selling at that level. But sometimes even at 40% annualized OOTM, you can get a couple to few percent for them. It has its place and time, which depending on the investor might be never. Still, it is an option.)
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 25, 2022 11:38:41 GMT -8
We've discussed here before the curious phenomenon of sell side saying one thing in public, but telling clients another. This snippet from Matt Levine's daily column (which I would encourage every investor to subscribe to) might explain it very well: Bottom line, Analysts' main job is being a dating service, not giving their opinions. Which might be why their opinions are often bullshit.
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Post by duckpins on Jan 25, 2022 11:58:58 GMT -8
Bottom line, Analysts' main job is being a dating service, not giving their opinions. Which might be why their opinions are often bullshit.
One might observe that the analysts try to analyze. That is a fun ton of reason and logic. But the markets are a collection of emotions. The two often don't mix well.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 25, 2022 12:54:25 GMT -8
My biggest insight into analysts and their trade happened when I joined that Braeburn circle jerk for about 10 minutes (does that still exist?). Often accused of being a know-it-all, I'm actually someone who tries to stay humble and wise enough that I do not know everything and can always learn more (whether I retain it at this age is an entirely different matter). So I wanted to partake in the whole estimates thing, to get some idea how WS analysts do their thing. So I joined that officious star chamber to see how the sausage was made. They were all talking about this "modeling" process. I just couldn't get my head around it; WTF is modeling, and how does one do it? It sure sounds like an important, legitimate fundamental analysis tool. I assumed there were these objective inputs, plugged into a tried and true formula, which poops out accurate and veracious targets. I kept asking about this mysterious modeling process. Finally someone was candid with me: "We are just guesstimating." Wait, what? You mean you don't actually have any data points to input into the formula? "No, and there is no formula."
The indies are of course just hopeful investors hanging out in a chatroom, trying to be recognized as experts, talking their book so to speak, and feeling oh-so-important. Gotta love how Robert Letiao (sp) writes all his comments on PED's board with that confident, declarative prose of the respected WS analyst. Or our old friend Gregg Thurman making up his own acronyms. Gold.
But those Braeburn dudes did provide me a service: They made me realize that all of this analyst "modeling" is bullshit. Blind people with Parkinson's throwing darts. OK, maybe the pros don't have Parkinson's like the Braeburn guys. Because they have those nebulous "supply chain checks." But they are still throwing blind, because they cannot possible be privy to the machinations of Apple's enormous, labyrinthine supply chain, let alone its internal sales data. It is silly really, the tail wagging the dog. Rather than "here's what we expect," it's more like "here's what we would like to see (you beat)".
I realize this is all obvious to most on the board. But we do have some newer people lurking who might not share this institutional memory.
And I'd sure settle for a $300K drop lately. 😕
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 25, 2022 13:41:00 GMT -8
Ruh-roh. MSFT beats on rev and EPS, down 5% after hours.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 25, 2022 13:53:57 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 25, 2022 13:55:47 GMT -8
Guess Microsoft's Cloud numbers weren't good enough.
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Post by rmhe1999 on Jan 25, 2022 15:20:45 GMT -8
Guess Microsoft's Cloud numbers weren't good enough. Talk about a rebound!?! Down 5% to up 1%. Crazy market. Not following the earnings call. I wonder what changed/was said. Edit: now +2.5%
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Jan 25, 2022 16:59:41 GMT -8
Separately, how have the professionally-managed IRA's done? I wouldn't compare them to individual stocks (talk about a tough compare), but in compared to your goals or benchmarks (maybe a 30/30/30/10 split between the S&P, Nasdaq, Russel, and some bonds...though personally I don't like bonds), how have they done and have the fees been worth it? I'll just say that we would have been comfortable entering retirement with only the IRAs. Our sons will be quite happy with their AAPL inheritance. We have been very fortunate and are grateful.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 25, 2022 17:22:42 GMT -8
Guess Microsoft's Cloud numbers weren't good enough. Talk about a rebound!?! Down 5% to up 1%. Crazy market. Not following the earnings call. I wonder what changed/was said. Edit: now +2.5% I'm not following it, but it sounds like things are all over the place. I think the market is just really edgy right now. We're had times in the past with AAPL where it went one way in AH on earnings, potentially with a high point at some time. But then the next day, it has either went the other way, or started the other way and then came back. With IBM and now MSFT, I expect we'll see more than a little chaos this time around, with fear on people's wall of worry, but trying to get the jump on others.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 25, 2022 17:30:30 GMT -8
Separately, how have the professionally-managed IRA's done? I wouldn't compare them to individual stocks (talk about a tough compare), but in compared to your goals or benchmarks (maybe a 30/30/30/10 split between the S&P, Nasdaq, Russel, and some bonds...though personally I don't like bonds), how have they done and have the fees been worth it? I'll just say that we would have been comfortable entering retirement with only the IRAs. Our sons will be quite happy with their AAPL inheritance. We have been very fortunate and are grateful. Congratulations! That is the way to do it, to have the 401k/IRA/ROTH set up to provide for you, but potentially have a huge gravy train on the side. Thanks to AAPL, our ROTH would be more than enough, which we converted back at the end of 2007 or 2008. In our first few months at Motorola, we had a guy come in and talk to us about retirement plans. He showed how putting away $4k or $5k per year for the first 10 years would really pay off, even more so than waiting 10 years and then putting in the same amount annually for the next 35 years. That was always the safety net.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 25, 2022 17:44:41 GMT -8
My biggest insight into analysts and their trade happened when I joined that Braeburn circle jerk for about 10 minutes (does that still exist?). Often accused of being a know-it-all, I'm actually someone who tries to stay humble and wise enough that I do not know everything and can always learn more (whether I retain it at this age is an entirely different matter). So I wanted to partake in the whole estimates thing, to get some idea how WS analysts do their thing. So I joined that officious star chamber to see how the sausage was made. They were all talking about this "modeling" process. I just couldn't get my head around it; WTF is modeling, and how does one do it? It sure sounds like an important, legitimate fundamental analysis tool. I assumed there were these objective inputs, plugged into a tried and true formula, which poops out accurate and veracious targets. I kept asking about this mysterious modeling process. Finally someone was candid with me: "We are just guesstimating." Wait, what? You mean you don't actually have any data points to input into the formula? "No, and there is no formula." The indies are of course just hopeful investors hanging out in a chatroom, trying to be recognized as experts, talking their book so to speak, and feeling oh-so-important. Gotta love how Robert Letiao (sp) writes all his comments on PED's board with that confident, declarative prose of the respected WS analyst. Or our old friend Gregg Thurman making up his own acronyms. Gold. But those Braeburn dudes did provide me a service: They made me realize that all of this analyst "modeling" is bullshit. Blind people with Parkinson's throwing darts. OK, maybe the pros don't have Parkinson's like the Braeburn guys. Because they have those nebulous "supply chain checks." But they are still throwing blind, because they cannot possible be privy to the machinations of Apple's enormous, labyrinthine supply chain, let alone its internal sales data. It is silly really, the tail wagging the dog. Rather than "here's what we expect," it's more like "here's what we would like to see (you beat)". I realize this is all obvious to most on the board. But we do have some newer people lurking who might not share this institutional memory. And I'd sure settle for a $300K drop lately. 😕 Love it! Thanks JD. That's how I've felt, though I mean it is what one would expect. Without insider info, an individual is just guessing. It's based on past performance, and their own preferences/theory/intuition, but still. Same thing for the analysts, though they might have the bankroll to have someone counting cars in the factory parking lot, or finding someone willing to give inside info, for pay or not. But mostly, they are just doing the same thing, pulling a Gibbs and going with their gut. Maybe they were able to have an interview with an exec, but even the wink wink nod smile only gets you so much info. In an up market, with Apple over performing, just about anyone overestimating looks great. That's for pros and amateurs. The amateurs get more bullish, not using a safety factor. But both keep raising estimates/guesstimates quarter by quarter as Apple amazes...until one time that Apple does pretty good but isn't completely off the charts, compared to trumped up estimates. Apple at least has a good feeling about things, especially a month into the next quarter. I'd like to see them start giving guidance again, if only to put people into the right ballpark. What factor and what underestimate they give is all in the air, but even saying "we're a month into the quarter, suppliers are doing well, production is going well, and sales are meeting our expectations compared to last year" would be something, especially since sales would be looking forward a month and production would be looking forward maybe 2 months, while suppliers might be looking forward 3 months. That would give less volatility. But, volatility gives the potential for good being opportunities, for investors and for Apple, while keeping the ratios up as people still try to make money. Volatility can be a good and needed thing, or at least some people including Fisher say.
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Jan 26, 2022 5:02:48 GMT -8
Finally! I don't know what they've been waiting for. There was extensive discussion on their site about it for the last 2 decades, and tha discussion intensified in the iPhone era.
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mark
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Post by mark on Jan 26, 2022 5:14:32 GMT -8
You are, of course, correct. I guess that I am just impatient due to being underwhelmed with the last couple of increases, considering their financial and stock price performance. Perhaps I am just spoiled. I'm sometimes bugged that they didn't keep the total rate up. That would be absolutely horrible! Can you imagine in the quarters after a 20-50% decline? They'd have to drop the dividend by 20-50%. It would be crazy ... the dividend would constantly move up and down depending on the vagaries of stock price. Kind of like a bond, but with volatility added.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Feb 11, 2022 9:59:09 GMT -8
I do believe that it is time for another dividend bump, and I am hoping for a bit more generous bump this time, considering how profitable the past year has been. I believe their dividend bump has historically been around the Q2 earnings timeframe. You are, of course, correctLooking back at the last 5 years of bumps, it's been 7.3%, 6.5%, 5.5%, 16% and 10.5%, from most recent to furthest back. None of those bumps would make much of a difference on the overall dividend rate. Even with the stock price down a bit, the rate is currently 0.54%. So a 100% increase would only get it to just over 1%. Still, I expect a "pay increase" of 6-8% this year. At some point Apple might decide to break out of this dividend range, and 1-2% would be nice. It is much more directly visible as to what you are getting from it, as opposed to tossing more money at share buybacks, or even other uses for cash like buying a small company we likely never hear of. But I imagine that Apple can do a better job of deciding where to put its resources than I can as an outsider. The long period of hanging around the 150’s this year made me a bit skeptical about the value of buybacks, at least until recently.There may be bumps with the stock, and occasional bumps with the company. But overall it has worked out well, for Apple and for investors. Thanks Apple! Of course, you are correct again. I guess as a long-term buy-and-hold investor, dividends are just the only benefit that gives me some immediate tangible gratification. Please forgive my impatience.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 11, 2022 13:42:42 GMT -8
I'm sometimes bugged that they didn't keep the total rate up. That would be absolutely horrible! Can you imagine in the quarters after a 20-50% decline? They'd have to drop the dividend by 20-50%. It would be crazy ... the dividend would constantly move up and down depending on the vagaries of stock price. Kind of like a bond, but with volatility added. Or they could come in and say "at our annual dividend updates, we are aiming for a floor of 1.5%". Plenty of companies shrank to dropped their dividend during covid, while some of the ones that didn't (thinking oil companies) really should have. But there's the whole "dividend aristocrat" list, and the theory that some old widow somewhere is living off the dividends, implying that there are a significant number of people in that situation and that their dividends are potentially more important than the company's livelihood. But, like Apple not doing mass-layoffs during the last 3 downturns (even though they had hiring freezes in most groups), it's nice that they have the earnings power to not have to consider a dividend cut. Today's rate is nice. But .5% is much different than 1.7%. If they through 1.7% was reasonable and appropriate a decade ago, is .5% really proper now? Why? If they decided to aim for 1.5%, it could be on a 3 or even 5 year plan, keeping it easy by splitting it evenly and assuming no price appreciation. So 1.5% would be 1% more than now, and over 3 years split evenly would be about .33%. Raising the current dividend from .5% to .83% would be a 66% increase. That, along with the stated goal, would get some attention. I don't expect Apple to do that, and I'm not even sure I would want them to do it, since they find uses for their cash. And in the grand scope of things, it probably is better to put that extra money into buybacks, even if it's hard to quantify how that directly changes the share price. But that's true for just about everything.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 11, 2022 15:59:49 GMT -8
Yeah, Apple's divy is ridiculously low by any standard. It pays the lowest yield in all the Dow 30! I didn't even know this until I recently sorted the Dow by dividend yield when looking for put-selling candidates. It really is a good example of value vs growth stocks. This is ludicrously low for the most profitable company ever. If I sold all my Apple and bot IBM, I'd be getting paid a metric fuckload magnitude more just to hold the stock! Apple's meager dividend makes my dad feel like the poorest half-percenter ever. First world problems?
At some point you do run out of growth investors and need some value buyers...
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Post by hledgard on Feb 11, 2022 19:20:08 GMT -8
Beautiful post JD ! ! Very informative !
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mark
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Post by mark on Feb 12, 2022 19:10:23 GMT -8
Yeah, Apple's divy is ridiculously low by any standard. It pays the lowest yield in all the Dow 30! I didn't even know this until I recently sorted the Dow by dividend yield when looking for put-selling candidates. It really is a good example of value vs growth stocks. This is ludicrously low for the most profitable company ever. If I sold all my Apple and bot IBM, I'd be getting paid a metric fuckload magnitude more just to hold the stock! Apple's meager dividend makes my dad feel like the poorest half-percenter ever. First world problems?
At some point you do run out of growth investors and need some value buyers...
I don't particularly like dividends. I prefer to be able to choose myself when to take gains from an investment, and therefore when they will be taxed, rather than allowing the company to make that choice. Obviously I won't sell my Apple shares due to the dividend, and I wouldn't sell even if the dividend goes up significantly, and that's because I can't think of a better place for my investment dollars right now. With regard to switching the investment to something paying a higher dividend, only total return really matters in the long run. If you *really* need more current income from your Apple investment, just sell a few shares every now and then. You'd essentially be selling them back to Apple (because they buy back lots of shares every year), making the transaction equivalent to a dividend anyway.
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Post by benoir on Feb 13, 2022 5:17:31 GMT -8
Yeah, Apple's divy is ridiculously low by any standard. It pays the lowest yield in all the Dow 30! I didn't even know this until I recently sorted the Dow by dividend yield when looking for put-selling candidates. It really is a good example of value vs growth stocks. This is ludicrously low for the most profitable company ever. If I sold all my Apple and bot IBM, I'd be getting paid a metric fuckload magnitude more just to hold the stock! Apple's meager dividend makes my dad feel like the poorest half-percenter ever. First world problems?
At some point you do run out of growth investors and need some value buyers...
Was only thinking on Friday that I might diversify into something with a better dividend yield. FMG.AX. 18.48% dividend yield. You could buy that on margin….
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