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Post by aaplsauce on Jan 25, 2022 22:44:00 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 26, 2022 4:52:08 GMT -8
PED has Wedbush’s Daniel Ives on Microsoft’s Dec. 2021 quarterAs you probably noticed, the market is up nicely this morning. MSFT is up almost 4% at the moment, after being down quite a bit right after earnings. One can only hope that Tim can give some positive guidance.
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Post by hledgard on Jan 26, 2022 6:00:00 GMT -8
Many years ago, in the 80s, I bought Apple stock. Like many of you, I have held onto most of my stock all of this time, and have been more than well rewarded. I think there is a good deal of luck in this equation, but in any case, it has been a giant success.
I bought Apple stock for a simple reason. I used Apple computers at home, but at work and in my teaching, I had to use PCs. It seems obvious to me that Apple computers were so much easier to use. People sometimes laughed at me for using Apple computers at home. Nevertheless, I held, persisted, and also bought Apple stock.
Unfortunately, I believe Apple does not have the design that it used to have. One of favorite issues is deleting messages and message conversations in MacOS. In order to delete a message or conversation you have to click on it, then select delete, and then confirm. This is crazy ! !
With all of the spam that we get today it should be easy to the delete 5, 6, or 25 message threads all at once – select the offending threads, and then hitting some kind of delete option.
This is a shame. Apple is losing what I consider is their great human engineering design metaphor - making things easier for people.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 26, 2022 6:12:01 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 26, 2022 6:29:45 GMT -8
Unfortunately, I believe Apple does not have the design that it used to have. One of favorite issues is deleting messages and message conversations in MacOS. In order to delete a message or conversation you have to click on it, then select delete, and then confirm. This is crazy ! ! I disagree; confirmation of deletion has saved me from regrettable mistakes more than once.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 26, 2022 7:24:51 GMT -8
There was a story last night on CNN's front page about Tim's stalker: www.cnn.com/2022/01/25/tech/tim-cook-stalked/index.htmlBack in the Cult of Mac article, it's nice they put a link for disappearing your house. We saw the Apple Map vehicles twice, once driving by our house when I was standing at the street with the neighbor, and once coming up 431. Apple's Street View hasn't been available in our area the last times I checked. We didn't have a chance to set up a sign or anything, so if we make it to the maps I'm sure we're just blurred out. That was 2.5 or more years ago.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 26, 2022 8:29:19 GMT -8
Unfortunately, I believe Apple does not have the design that it used to have. One of favorite issues is deleting messages and message conversations in MacOS. In order to delete a message or conversation you have to click on it, then select delete, and then confirm. This is crazy ! ! With all of the spam that we get today it should be easy to the delete 5, 6, or 25 message threads all at once – select the offending threads, and then hitting some kind of delete option. I'm not seeing the same behavior as you are. I'm on Monterey, using 12.1. And I assume you mean the Mail app (you can always use other Mail applications, or even webmail). When I select a message or multiple messages in Mail, and then hit delete, I don't get a confirmation. I also did the same thing with a thread, and it deleted without a confirmation. I know from the past when I am deleting a bunch of things, it does give a confirmation once over a certain threshold. I think that level is 100 messages, but it might be less. So if I go into the ads folder I set up, sort by From, and select all of the messages from Costco that are older than a couple weeks, if I delete them and there are 40 I don't get a message, but if there are 120 I do. These are individual messages, not threads. That makes sense to me. But often I would expect there to be a preference for that, though looking around in the Mail application's preferences I did not find one for this. OTOH, the system trash has (at least nearly) always had the option to give a confirmation. I believe I remember this back in System 7, though I can't remember about 6.0.4/6.0.7. I got to use a Mac Iici at the national lab that I was interning, and someone gave me a floppy of various add-ons, including having Oscar the Grouch sing tunes ("I love trash" & "I love it because it's trash"), I think when you went to empty the trash. Anyways, the system trash confirmation used to be settable by right or option clicking the trash. Now it's there in the Finder preferences (Finder menu when in the Finder), in the advanced section.
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Post by hledgard on Jan 26, 2022 8:32:42 GMT -8
Unfortunately, I believe Apple does not have the design that it used to have. One of favorite issues is deleting messages and message conversations in MacOS. In order to delete a message or conversation you have to click on it, then select delete, and then confirm. This is crazy ! ! I disagree; confirmation of deletion has saved me from regrettable mistakes more than once. I completely agree, confirmations are essential. But there should also be another way, to get rid of the spam easily, with one click, or in bunches sometime. The same issue arises if one wants to clean house, i.e. get rid of a bunch of old threads. Yet another issue is with the calendar. With a new event, the popup window shows the default alert time. Most always I want to charge the alert. I go to click on the field, and the windows shifts ! Now I have to re-position the cursor, and in a tiny area. Annoying. Oh, and regards 4aapl. Indeed, mail works fine ! ! It is messages I am referring to.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 26, 2022 8:44:28 GMT -8
I disagree; confirmation of deletion has saved me from regrettable mistakes more than once. I completely agree, confirmations are essential. But there should also be another way, to get rid of the spam easily, with one click, or in bunches sometime. The same issue arises if one wants to clean house, i.e. get rid of a bunch of old threads. Yet another issue is with the calendar. With a new event, the popup window shows the default alert time. Most always I want to charge the alert. I go to click on the field, and the windows shifts ! NowI have to re-position the cursor, and in a tiny area. Annoying. Oh, and regards 4aapl. Indeed, mail works fine ! ! It is messages I am referring to. Ahhhh, got it. I basically don't use the Messages app on my Mac, only firing it up when it is the easiest way to print or save a Messages attachment, like a HW assignment for my daughter. I guess the question is how would you feel if you accidentally deleted a message stream that you didn't mean to? I used to always have the system trash just empty, without confirmation. But at some OS upgrade or system transition the default reset, and I just haven't felt the need to change it back. I just don't delete things that often to make the confirmation a problem, whereas I could see a scenario where I would be happy that it asked. Especially since we now have 2 kittens, who's curiosity sometimes gets the best of them.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 26, 2022 8:52:52 GMT -8
Earnings are getting near, and this plus stock and market volatility always brings lots of people to the board.
But most people view while not being logged in. Here are the stats for the past 24 hours: Users Online in the Last 24 Hours 4 Staff, 34 Members, 279 Guests.
Let's try something. Let's all try to log on for viewing, before earnings come out in a little more than 24 hours. Post something if you like, or maybe we'll just make a poll so people can vote in it.
Then, as a followup, within a week of earnings coming out, make at least one post. Surely there will be something to post on.
If you don't have an account yet, create one. We have a couple valid new users in the past 12 months, but sadly I believe more spammer accounts have been created in at least a 4 to 1 ratio over the past 12 months...and luckily we haven't have too many of those either.
So that's the challenge for the coming week. Create an account, get logged in, and make one post. Easy Peasy.
Make it so!
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Post by podboy on Jan 26, 2022 9:50:50 GMT -8
This is a reminder to myself that I cannot time the market. Somewhat of an expensive lesson learned.
I sold my entire position 6600 shares two days ago because of the macro-economic doom and gloom that we currently live in. I read too many pessimistic tea leaves and got spooked. Bought back 10 minutes ago losing out on $5 rise in stock price.
One of the hardest things for me is to be patient and just maintain my position. I'll be tempted to sell by news, emotion, and the fact that I've made a 20-bagger in 10 years. When you look at AAPL's chart it has gone up and to the right the last few decades, think about all the times everyone on this board had to convince themselves not to sell.
Investing is the discipline of relative selection. I'm convinced that I'll only have a few good insights over my lifetime, AAPL's future is one of them, so I need to maximize the few that I have. There are very few occasions where I sold and did so profitably and I believe very few people possess the skill needed to take advantage of these opportunities.
Howard Marks said, "What's clear to me is that simply being invested is by far the most important thing." Time not timing is the key to building wealth in the stock market. Reducing market exposure through ill-conceived selling - and failing to participate fully in the market's positive long-term trend is a cardinal sin in investing. That's even more true of selling without reason, things that have fallen, turning negative fluctuations into permanent losses, and missing out on long-term compounding.
I clearly do not have the predictive ability to correctly time markets. I need to keep my portfolio fully invested whenever attractively priced assets can be bought. I can never sell to raise cash based on a hunch. Holding AAPL when declines in price are unpleasant, but missing out on returns because I failed to buy when I need to buy is inexcusable.
I'm 35 and plan on holding AAPL for the next few decades. I don't like AAPL just because it's a great place to be in good economic times; I like AAPL because it's a great place to be in just about any (COVID) economic times.
When AAPL takes a big hit, which it inevitably will, I may sell my common to buy DITM LEAPS just to increase my delta. But from now on I'll fully participate.
This is my public service announcement. Thanks for listening & thanks AAPL.
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Post by silkstone on Jan 26, 2022 10:22:04 GMT -8
This is a reminder to myself that I cannot time the market. Somewhat of an expensive lesson learned. I sold my entire position 6600 shares two days ago because of the macro-economic doom and gloom that we currently live in. I read too many pessimistic tea leaves and got spooked. Bought back 10 minutes ago losing out on $5 rise in stock price. One of the hardest things for me is to be patient and just maintain my position. I'll be tempted to sell by news, emotion, and the fact that I've made a 20-bagger in 10 years. When you look at AAPL's chart it has gone up and to the right the last few decades, think about all the times everyone on this board had to convince themselves not to sell. Investing is the discipline of relative selection. I'm convinced that I'll only have a few good insights over my lifetime, AAPL's future is one of them, so I need to maximize the few that I have. There are very few occasions where I sold and did so profitably and I believe very few people possess the skill needed to take advantage of these opportunities. Howard Marks said, "What's clear to me is that simply being invested is by far the most important thing." Time not timing is the key to building wealth in the stock market. Reducing market exposure through ill-conceived selling - and failing to participate fully in the market's positive long-term trend is a cardinal sin in investing. That's even more true of selling without reason, things that have fallen, turning negative fluctuations into permanent losses, and missing out on long-term compounding. I clearly do not have the predictive ability to correctly time markets. I need to keep my portfolio fully invested whenever attractively priced assets can be bought. I can never sell to raise cash based on a hunch. Holding AAPL when declines in price are unpleasant, but missing out on returns because I failed to buy when I need to buy is inexcusable. I'm 35 and plan on holding AAPL for the next few decades. I don't like AAPL just because it's a great place to be in good economic times; I like AAPL because it's a great place to be in just about any (COVID) economic times. When AAPL takes a big hit, which it inevitably will, I may sell my common to buy DITM LEAPS just to increase my delta. But from now on I'll fully participate. This is my public service announcement. Thanks for listening & thanks AAPL. Wow, have you calculated what your tax bill will be ? I agree with you, at 35 yrs of age, you need to be invested for the long term for sure, you still have many years to live and make money. Good luck
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Post by podboy on Jan 26, 2022 10:29:34 GMT -8
I paid the tax man this year ($220k) on the LEAPS I had to roll over into common. The 6600 common shares are what is left.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 26, 2022 11:37:58 GMT -8
This is a reminder to myself that I cannot time the market. Somewhat of an expensive lesson learned. I sold my entire position 6600 shares two days ago because of the macro-economic doom and gloom that we currently live in. I read too many pessimistic tea leaves and got spooked. Bought back 10 minutes ago losing out on $5 rise in stock price. One of the hardest things for me is to be patient and just maintain my position. I'll be tempted to sell by news, emotion, and the fact that I've made a 20-bagger in 10 years. When you look at AAPL's chart it has gone up and to the right the last few decades, think about all the times everyone on this board had to convince themselves not to sell. Investing is the discipline of relative selection. I'm convinced that I'll only have a few good insights over my lifetime, AAPL's future is one of them, so I need to maximize the few that I have. There are very few occasions where I sold and did so profitably and I believe very few people possess the skill needed to take advantage of these opportunities. Howard Marks said, "What's clear to me is that simply being invested is by far the most important thing." Time not timing is the key to building wealth in the stock market. Reducing market exposure through ill-conceived selling - and failing to participate fully in the market's positive long-term trend is a cardinal sin in investing. That's even more true of selling without reason, things that have fallen, turning negative fluctuations into permanent losses, and missing out on long-term compounding. I clearly do not have the predictive ability to correctly time markets. I need to keep my portfolio fully invested whenever attractively priced assets can be bought. I can never sell to raise cash based on a hunch. Holding AAPL when declines in price are unpleasant, but missing out on returns because I failed to buy when I need to buy is inexcusable. I'm 35 and plan on holding AAPL for the next few decades. I don't like AAPL just because it's a great place to be in good economic times; I like AAPL because it's a great place to be in just about any (COVID) economic times. When AAPL takes a big hit, which it inevitably will, I may sell my common to buy DITM LEAPS just to increase my delta. But from now on I'll fully participate. This is my public service announcement. Thanks for listening & thanks AAPL. I'm going to be that friend that tells you what you need to hear, not what you want to hear.
You have it backwards. I just do not comprehend selling a stock like Apple when it goes *down*. Especially when it is just part of a larger and sector correction. Buy low, sell *high*. Did you really believe at the time you sold, that AAPL and the stock market were headed downward forever? You're 35 dude, whole life (and Apple Car) ahead of you! Buy good stocks AND NEVER SELL THEM.
Someone asked me this week about stop-losses. Quite the contrary, I have buy-gains or whatever they are called (Maybe I can make up an acronym for this type of limit order like Gregg Thurman). Apple is on sale right now bruh. I am putting all of my 2021 $7000 Roth money in a 160-165 LEAP spread (I would have gone with a lower spread, but my funds did not clear in time. Freaking TD Ameritrade). OK I know that isn't a lot of money, but it's all the (non-margin) dry powder I have right now. But I am long AF. Lets just say I am down 7 figures from AAPL 2020 high, and I am 54, so I have some skin in the game here.
Here's a hot take: Until further notice, and Apple gets struck by some existential torpedo that it cannot recover from (and I assure you we will be yelling about it here quite loudly), AAPL will regain any highs it has previously hit.
Just a little tough love. I guess today's kids would call it being a Diamond-Handed Ape. 💎🦍
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Post by podboy on Jan 26, 2022 11:48:37 GMT -8
Thanks JD, I value your opinion highly. Also, thank you for your contributions to this board over the years; I've learned a lot.
When I say I may sell my common, that would be only to take that equity and purchase DITM LEAPS so that I would have additional leverage (delta) for the potential rise in stock price.
The point is, I'll be invested in AAPL common the majority of the time. When AAPL is severely off the ATH's I'll sell common to buy LEAPS. Once the LEAPS appreciate to near ATH's I'll sell them to buy common. Rise repeat. I'll always have skin in the game, just how much so is dependent on how irrationally the market is behaving.
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Post by bram on Jan 26, 2022 12:59:11 GMT -8
Just a quick note from a guy from Amsterdam, The Netherlands, who is an AAPL-long since 2008 and feels mightily rewarded. Boards like this one (and the previous ones) helped me, as many others, to just 'stick to the stock' even in bad times, and never sleep less by it. Thanks!
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 26, 2022 13:08:26 GMT -8
Intel and Tesla both beat expectations on top and bottom lines.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 26, 2022 13:11:13 GMT -8
Just a quick note from a guy from Amsterdam, The Netherlands, who is an AAPL-long since 2008 and feels mightily rewarded. Boards like this one (and the previous ones) helped me, as many others, to just 'stick to the stock' even in bad times, and never sleep less by it. Thanks! First post! Great to hear from you. Please join the conversation more often.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Jan 26, 2022 13:14:11 GMT -8
Sheesh! I can’t leave you guys alone for a minute! What the heck happened at 4 PM? Justice Breyer retirement?
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Post by benoir on Jan 26, 2022 14:19:38 GMT -8
But I am long AF. Lets just say I am down 7 figures from AAPL 2020 high, and I am 54, so I have some skin in the game here.
53, nearly as long AF as you. How good is it to be able to be down 7 figures!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 26, 2022 15:21:48 GMT -8
But I am long AF. Lets just say I am down 7 figures from AAPL 2020 high, and I am 54, so I have some skin in the game here.
53, nearly as long AF as you. How good is it to be able to be down 7 figures! Better than being down 8 figures, which I believe at least a couple here have as their current "paper loss" when using the ATH of nearly $183 as the benchmark. But JD, I don't understand. You are down from the "AAPL 2020 high"? My notes have 136.69 on December 28th 2020, though I don't know if that was the absolute high.
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Post by benoir on Jan 26, 2022 15:32:16 GMT -8
53, nearly as long AF as you. How good is it to be able to be down 7 figures! Better than being down 8 figures, which I believe at least a couple here have as their current "paper loss" when using the ATH of nearly $183 as the benchmark. But JD, I don't understand. You are down from the "AAPL 2020 high"? My notes have 136.69 on December 28th 2020, though I don't know if that was the absolute high. yes, you are correct - it's a 'paper loss' from a $183 benchmark <— Perspective!I would very much prefer to have an 8 figure paper loss at the moment.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 26, 2022 16:01:40 GMT -8
Sheesh! I can’t leave you guys alone for a minute! What the heck happened at 4 PM? Justice Breyer retirement? (Edit: opps, didn't check current events. Still, in general......) IMO, someone is playing the market, and doing well at it. Maybe it's someone directly. Maybe it's just how an AI was programmed. But if you know the market is edgy, and will be even more edgy when the Fed confirms what is already talked about and should be baked in, that they are increasing interest rates and they might just even do it soonish, as soon as in a couple months, then what is a good play? If looking at maximizing profits, and not worried about a little volatility, the play would be to Sell Sell Sell right at the announcement. Start the panic, the stampede. Then jump out of the way, and buy up all that you can get. Volume should be high, so you should be able to buy up multiples of what you sold, without moving the market. Straight out of "Wallstreet", or even "Secret of my Success". But the Fed is at arms length, so there's not even any worries of insider trading or lawsuits or whatnot. No jail time, no real enemies made, and no fleeing the country. Maybe there is another good explanation. But BlueHerring used to point out that if the big players wanted volume, sometimes that meant the price had to go down. It is easy to make a conspiracy sometimes, especially tying in last Friday's big options expiration. But that doesn't mean that they aren't related, especially when we have a story today of a long time AAPL investor, who still was worried enough to sell out at the lows, and buy back a couple days later at a couple of points higher. Fear sells, and volatility amps up that fear. If automated trading is able to make good money while farming fractions of a cent, imagine how much it can rake in when getting nickels, dimes, quarters, and even dollars! Cha-Ching!
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 26, 2022 16:58:00 GMT -8
This is a reminder to myself that I cannot time the market. Somewhat of an expensive lesson learned. I sold my entire position 6600 shares two days ago because of the macro-economic doom and gloom that we currently live in. I read too many pessimistic tea leaves and got spooked. Bought back 10 minutes ago losing out on $5 rise in stock price. One of the hardest things for me is to be patient and just maintain my position. I'll be tempted to sell by news, emotion, and the fact that I've made a 20-bagger in 10 years. When you look at AAPL's chart it has gone up and to the right the last few decades, think about all the times everyone on this board had to convince themselves not to sell. Investing is the discipline of relative selection. I'm convinced that I'll only have a few good insights over my lifetime, AAPL's future is one of them, so I need to maximize the few that I have. There are very few occasions where I sold and did so profitably and I believe very few people possess the skill needed to take advantage of these opportunities. Howard Marks said, "What's clear to me is that simply being invested is by far the most important thing." Time not timing is the key to building wealth in the stock market. Reducing market exposure through ill-conceived selling - and failing to participate fully in the market's positive long-term trend is a cardinal sin in investing. That's even more true of selling without reason, things that have fallen, turning negative fluctuations into permanent losses, and missing out on long-term compounding. I clearly do not have the predictive ability to correctly time markets. I need to keep my portfolio fully invested whenever attractively priced assets can be bought. I can never sell to raise cash based on a hunch. Holding AAPL when declines in price are unpleasant, but missing out on returns because I failed to buy when I need to buy is inexcusable. I'm 35 and plan on holding AAPL for the next few decades. I don't like AAPL just because it's a great place to be in good economic times; I like AAPL because it's a great place to be in just about any (COVID) economic times. When AAPL takes a big hit, which it inevitably will, I may sell my common to buy DITM LEAPS just to increase my delta. But from now on I'll fully participate. This is my public service announcement. Thanks for listening & thanks AAPL. It's good that you have learned about yourself through this. Missing out on 33k seems an expensive school, but it's nearly priceless if it helps you in the future, likely at even large values. I remember day trading the AH movements of AAPL on earnings days before. It was all in an IRA or Roth, so there were no tax implications, and it wasn't my whole portfolio. Making a couple bucks a share on maybe a thousand or two shares was nice, and pretty consistent. And then it wasn't, missing out on a time where AAPL went the other way, and maybe missing $10/share. But that's the thing. All investing has risk. Even buy and hold has the risk that you miss out on some great opportunities, you hold the stock into a long flat period, or you continue holding the stock well into a long and permanent downtrend. In very long cycles we have been well rewarded with AAPL. But, it has had it's downtrends, and some have stayed down for years. $620 to $370, as sales decreased? Whatever 2000 brought....60 to 20? Oh no...that it better than it did. finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/history?period1=345427200&period2=1643155200&interval=1mo&filter=history&frequency=1mo&includeAdjustedClose=trueKeeping in mind the 56:1 total split since then, in August 2000 the high was 1.15 (so $64.4). The low that month was 0.45, and the next month was 0.31 (17.36). It bottomed at .24 (13.44) , off 79.1% from the high, in less than 4 months. But But But, just hold on. It will come back. It played around near the bottom for a couple years, hitting that 0.24/share again in September 2002, and in January 2003, setting a new low of 0.23 in April of 2003, about 2.5 years in. It wasn't until August 2004 that it made up half of the loss, 4 years in. Momentum was finally taking hold, and later that year in November, the stock price finally reached above 1.15. It was down from that mark for 4.25 years, and most of that time it was down significantly! Not many people here held through all of that. With how huge the loss was, even without leverage of margin or options, it's a unique time like the 1929 great depression, that we hope we will never see the likes of again. I had to sell some of my shares, since I used a fair amount of margin at that time, which doesn't work well with a 80% drop, or an even higher drop when compared to the ATH of 1.34 in March of that year (82.9% drop from 1.34 to .23). But I held on to what I could. Being young, I didn't have huge costs. I interviewed with a couple people while out at MWSF 2001, and took a job as a contractor at a small computer company in Cupertino. In the end things worked out, but sometimes holding through a long and major downturn is a tough thing to do.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 26, 2022 17:31:19 GMT -8
Futures looking bleak again
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Jan 27, 2022 3:16:06 GMT -8
Hindsight is almost always 20/20.
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