chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Jan 29, 2022 8:57:38 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 29, 2022 11:39:35 GMT -8
I might just have to try it. Luckily I don't have to unlock my iPhone too often while wearing a normal face mask. Though trying to use ApplePay at the checkout, at the grocery store or Ace, it would be nice for it to just work. But, I'd like to have it slightly more forgiving most of the time, namely when skiing. Googles are a little too wide for face id to work. Personally, I'd be ok with it using a function where it was less secure, if it let me log in via face at those times. Having it work with a ski facemask might be too much to ask for, though I think people said it could be linked to an Apple Watch. For those getting storms, stay warm, and don't shovel too much at once. Like splitting wood with a maul, it can be hard but satisfying work. Split it up into reasonable chunks, and take breaks in between.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 29, 2022 11:41:47 GMT -8
I saw someone post as Sponge earlier in the week. This, in his honor: "In a bubble, no one wants to hear the bear case. It is the worst kind of party-pooping. For bubbles, especially superbubbles where we are now, are often the most exhilarating financial experiences of a lifetime." I think Grantham wrote about this in 2020, and the markets marched higher by about 50%, and are now “blowing off”? Maybe he’s correct, but the timing has been off? www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/This was linked to from 500ish.com/the-great-deflate-6bc847df9809
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 29, 2022 11:47:49 GMT -8
I saw someone post as Sponge earlier in the week. This, in his honor: "In a bubble, no one wants to hear the bear case. It is the worst kind of party-pooping. For bubbles, especially superbubbles where we are now, are often the most exhilarating financial experiences of a lifetime." I think Grantham wrote about this in 2020, and the markets marched higher by about 50%, and are now “blowing off”? Maybe he’s correct, but the timing has been off? www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/This was linked to from 500ish.com/the-great-deflate-6bc847df9809 While this might be a bubble, which is sometimes hard to notice while inside it, this doesn't seem to have the frothiness of all of the recent bubbles. 2000, 2008, Bitcoin, Meme. All of them had the front page stories, and people talking, considering getting into them even if they thought things were overpriced, just to try to make a buck. Buy high, sell higher! I'm reading "Money" right now, and it's talking about the same thing with the Mississippi Bubble. Crazy euphoria. IMO we are at inflated values, as a whole. But that alone doesn't mean that this is the top or the end. Even if it is, with just some inflation/froth instead of crazy amounts of it, the downside should be a lot more moderate too. But moderate can still be a 20-40% drop, just not that 85% drop AAPL had in the 2000 drop.
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Jan 29, 2022 12:07:35 GMT -8
I hope this assessment to be the case vs. Grantham. 500ish.com/the-great-deflate-6bc847df9809 "As such, I might suggest that for the 20th year in a row, we’re not going to see a tech bubble burst. Because it’s not and never was a bubble. Instead, perhaps it’s best to think of it more like a balloon. And while those too can pop, they can also deflate over time. This feels like a more apt analogy for what is happening here. The air which had inflated earnings multiples to the Moon in tech is slowly but surely coming out, returning the balloon closer to Earth." I'm happy to be long AAPL, the money-making machine that it is! Edit: I think this was posted Monday or Tuesday: I
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Jan 29, 2022 12:57:57 GMT -8
I know people here don't believe in technicals, but my WAG is it AAPL will find a bottom in the 155-158 area over the next few weeks. On the weekly chart, there's a pivot trendline that's served as strong support since the pandemic lows, and that's the price where the stock will meet that trendline. Archibaidtuttle, in the weekly chart it's easy to see that AAPL is trading in a channel. Do you think that it will need to bounce off of the support level before returning to the resistance line? I'm more than a little rusty with reading charts.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 29, 2022 13:38:15 GMT -8
I hope this assessment to be the case vs. Grantham. 500ish.com/the-great-deflate-6bc847df9809 "As such, I might suggest that for the 20th year in a row, we’re not going to see a tech bubble burst. Because it’s not and never was a bubble. Instead, perhaps it’s best to think of it more like a balloon. And while those too can pop, they can also deflate over time. This feels like a more apt analogy for what is happening here. The air which had inflated earnings multiples to the Moon in tech is slowly but surely coming out, returning the balloon closer to Earth." Another side of it that I hadn't paid attention to is that there are a lot of stocks that have been down, even before this last week or two. But they tend to be the smaller caps. Not just the S&P, but the Russel 2000. This week I pulled up the various indexes. The numbers aren't going to be exact, but is was something like the Russel 2000 was down 20% from the top, Nasdaq down 16%, AAPL down 12%, S&P down 9%, and Dow down 5%. That goes along with the flight to safety, or to actual earnings, going from the tiny companies that don't have as much going for them, to the big bell weathers that keep on chugging. And that's often what the textbook would say happens, later in a cycle. Just as with an increase in interest rates, it affects those companies that borrow a lot and don't turn much or any profit a while lot more. It's not easy money across the board anymore. That is a sign to pay attention to, which I didn't before when I got blindsided. Things are changing. Maybe this time around it manages to have a soft landing...I've never experienced one of those before. But I'm not going to hold my breathe, since it seems that would either take quite a bit of finesse, or a decently broad definition of "soft landing".
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Jan 29, 2022 15:07:05 GMT -8
I know people here don't believe in technicals, but my WAG is it AAPL will find a bottom in the 155-158 area over the next few weeks. On the weekly chart, there's a pivot trendline that's served as strong support since the pandemic lows, and that's the price where the stock will meet that trendline. Archibaidtuttle, in the weekly chart it's easy to see that AAPL is trading in a channel. Do you think that it will need to bounce off of the support level before returning to the resistance line? I'm more than a little rusty with reading charts. Here's an update to this chart you quoted, that I posted 9 days ago... This was a successful technical prediction if I do say so. The low this week was 154.70, just 30 cents shy of the level where the chart predicted a bounce. These technicals gave me the confidence I needed to load up in the 155-158 range (which also coincided with 30 RSI, which provided a nice confirmation). Look how this week's candle kissed the lower pivot trend line and bounced right off of it. The great news about this confirmation is that the trendline (which has been active since the last split) remained intact. Even if we see a selloff from here, it's more likely than not that the pivot line holds again. In terms of the channel's upper bound, currently around 190, you're right that that level will act as resistance when we get up there again, and is unlikely to go higher than that on first try. Even so, I don't think anyone will be complaining if we're at 190 soon but not higher. Unfortunately, simply remaining in the channel and bouncing off the lower pivot line like AAPL has done this week doesn't mean it will automatically go straight up to the upper bound. Look at what happened in March 2021 and June 2021. AAPL bounced off the same lower pivot line and only got up to the middle of the channel before retesting it again 3-4 months later. That could happen again -- we could bounce a little here, hang out in the 170s, and then decline again to test the lower pivot line in April-June. The good news is that it will be higher then (in the low 160s). As long as the stock doesn't create a "lower low" (ie., drop below 154.70) this long term uptrend is intact.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Jan 29, 2022 17:44:46 GMT -8
I might just have to try it. Luckily I don't have to unlock my iPhone too often while wearing a normal face mask. Though trying to use ApplePay at the checkout, at the grocery store or Ace, it would be nice for it to just work. But, I'd like to have it slightly more forgiving most of the time, namely when skiing. Googles are a little too wide for face id to work. Personally, I'd be ok with it using a function where it was less secure, if it let me log in via face at those times. Having it work with a ski facemask might be too much to ask for, though I think people said it could be linked to an Apple Watch. Turns out it's only for the iPhone 12 and 13, not the 11. 9to5mac.com/2022/01/27/how-to-use-iphone-face-id-with-a-mask/9to5mac.com/2022/01/27/psa-ios-15-4s-new-use-face-id-with-a-mask-option-limited-to-iphone-12-and-newer/The public beta of 15.4 installed ok. It just took a long time, to backup, put on 15.3, backup, archive the backup, set the iPhone to work with the Beta, install the Beta, and then do a full backup. I shoveled some snow, blew some snow, and chipped some ice while that was all going on. Month old stuff, but it looks like we have a high pressure ridge that sends storms around, which sometimes then hit the east coast. Nothing in the 14-16 day future, they say at the moment.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Jan 30, 2022 3:06:27 GMT -8
Thank you Archibaidtuttle for that great explanation. Please continue to share your thoughts as I know that there are more than a few others here besides myself that have interest in market trends and their predictability. Seeing AAPL trading in a district channel as this weekly chart shows is hard to deny. And I know that it is likely to stay in that channel until it breaks out, either downwards or hopefully to the good. If ya got something that works ya stick with it till it doesn’t work any more.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,103
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Post by Dave on Jan 30, 2022 3:31:23 GMT -8
I saw someone post as Sponge earlier in the week. This, in his honor: "In a bubble, no one wants to hear the bear case. It is the worst kind of party-pooping. For bubbles, especially superbubbles where we are now, are often the most exhilarating financial experiences of a lifetime." I think Grantham wrote about this in 2020, and the markets marched higher by about 50%, and are now “blowing off”? Maybe he’s correct, but the timing has been off? www.gmo.com/americas/research-library/let-the-wild-rumpus-begin/This was linked to from 500ish.com/the-great-deflate-6bc847df9809 While this might be a bubble, which is sometimes hard to notice while inside it, this doesn't seem to have the frothiness of all of the recent bubbles. 2000, 2008, Bitcoin, Meme. All of them had the front page stories, and people talking, considering getting into them even if they thought things were overpriced, just to try to make a buck. Buy high, sell higher! I'm reading "Money" right now, and it's talking about the same thing with the Mississippi Bubble. Crazy euphoria. IMO we are at inflated values, as a whole. But that alone doesn't mean that this is the top or the end. Even if it is, with just some inflation/froth instead of crazy amounts of it, the downside should be a lot more moderate too. But moderate can still be a 20-40% drop, just not that 85% drop AAPL had in the 2000 drop. Thanks Ono for sharing that link. It does make sense and helps with any feelings of panic.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 30, 2022 10:59:53 GMT -8
I don't know how we're in a stock market bubble when so much money flow is going into weird random new stuff like NFT's, meme stocks, and crypto. Lots of dumb money still out there that thinks stocks like Apple are some boomer investment.
But I am concerned if rumors of Apple putting a pregnant man emoji into iOS. Taking out the gun emoji was bad enough. Someone tell me this is an urban legend.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Jan 30, 2022 11:35:36 GMT -8
But I am concerned if rumors of Apple putting a pregnant man emoji into iOS. Taking out the gun emoji was bad enough. Someone tell me this is an urban legend. I thought you were joking. Looked it up. It's an official emoji. Not just Apple, Google too. It's part of the Unicode 14.0 emojipedia.org/pregnant-man/
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 30, 2022 12:16:22 GMT -8
But I am concerned if rumors of Apple putting a pregnant man emoji into iOS. Taking out the gun emoji was bad enough. Someone tell me this is an urban legend. I thought you were joking. Looked it up. It's an official emoji. Not just Apple, Google too. It's part of the Unicode 14.0 emojipedia.org/pregnant-man/ I totally retract my previous statements about Elon Musk. He’s launching numerous pro-social initiatives for the preservation of mankind. Tim Cook is introducing pregnant men emojis. 🤦🏻♂️
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 30, 2022 12:30:34 GMT -8
JD,
While I share your disdain for the pregnant man emoji, let’s keep the blame where it belongs - Unicode.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,182
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Post by JDSoCal on Jan 30, 2022 17:48:03 GMT -8
I thought Tim Cook's job was to make insanely great products. Hard to imagine Steve Jobs letting Apple follow the insane diktats of some weird consortium's social justice retardation.
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Post by aaplcrazie on Jan 30, 2022 19:01:50 GMT -8
I thought Tim Cook's job was to make insanely great products. Hard to imagine Steve Jobs letting Apple follow the insane diktats of some weird consortium's social justice retardation. I'am with JDsocal on this - remember when Macs just worked? Take a gander on the Support Forums on Upgrade woes with Monterey for example or the slow adoption rate of IOS-15. Or just dropping support for something that worked in my case Aperture, and totally succeeding the Mac/ iPad Photo Editing Space to Adobe!!? Where's the Mobile Vs of Aperture? They came out with some weird excuse about Pro's Photographers not generating enough revenue? I once had the Executive Producer of LOST staring at my Mac set up for 12 hours on a Hair/Makeup Costume Test. With Aperture running the whole show from my tethered Nikon Camera to my MBP and beamed out to an Ext Cinema Display. You can't buy that kind of Advertising! Rant concludes Pan Center and Fade to Black
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Jan 30, 2022 19:52:19 GMT -8
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