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Post by aaplsauce on Feb 21, 2022 22:29:56 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2022 3:15:57 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2022 3:32:08 GMT -8
Archibaldtuttle, do you see the weekly channel holding or is the 50 MA our next stop? Inquiring minds want to know.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Feb 22, 2022 5:06:24 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Feb 22, 2022 5:50:05 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Feb 22, 2022 6:42:41 GMT -8
He wants to short oil. Good luck with that.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 22, 2022 6:57:57 GMT -8
Archibaldtuttle, do you see the weekly channel holding or is the 50 MA our next stop? Inquiring minds want to know. Weekly channel low is around 159 right now so we’re not there yet… Here's an updated weekly chart. If you're asking for my WAG, I think it's likely we go down to 159/160 to test it and then bounce there. But this stuff isn't foolproof, it's just probabilities.
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Post by bram on Feb 22, 2022 9:56:57 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 22, 2022 13:55:12 GMT -8
Another echo chamber. A bunch of parrots on PED's site. Everyone there lauding Tim Cook as some genius (some bozo gave him an "A+"), while both sides of the aisle in Congress are voting to regulate Apple. Apple has pissed off everyone, including natural laissez-faire free market types with its pro-censorship ideas. And he blew off a call with Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is co-sponsoring bills to regulate Apple! If Tim has any brains - and I am beginning to wonder - he won't mess with Trump's new app.
This (shakedowns from all sides) is a real existential threat, folks.
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Post by silkstone on Feb 22, 2022 14:56:33 GMT -8
Another echo chamber. A bunch of parrots on PED's site. Everyone there lauding Tim Cook as some genius (some bozo gave him an "A+"), while both sides of the aisle in Congress are voting to regulate Apple. Apple has pissed off everyone, including natural laissez-faire free market types with its pro-censorship ideas. And he blew off a call with Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is co-sponsoring bills to regulate Apple! If Tim has any brains - and I am beginning to wonder - he won't mess with Trump's new app.
This (shakedowns from all sides) is a real existential threat, folks.
JD must have had a bad day in the classroom, did they make you wear a mask or something crazy 😜 Tim was hand picked by Steve Jobs to lead Apple and he’s done a fantastic job imo. Attachments:
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Post by benoir on Feb 22, 2022 15:47:35 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 22, 2022 15:56:28 GMT -8
Another echo chamber. A bunch of parrots on PED's site. Everyone there lauding Tim Cook as some genius (some bozo gave him an "A+"), while both sides of the aisle in Congress are voting to regulate Apple. Apple has pissed off everyone, including natural laissez-faire free market types with its pro-censorship ideas. And he blew off a call with Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is co-sponsoring bills to regulate Apple! If Tim has any brains - and I am beginning to wonder - he won't mess with Trump's new app.
This (shakedowns from all sides) is a real existential threat, folks.
JD must have had a bad day in the classroom, did they make you wear a mask or something crazy 😜 Tim was hand picked by Steve Jobs to lead Apple and he’s done a fantastic job imo. I'd quit before I'd wear a mask to work. Even the CDC admitted that masks don't work (and Fauci said they were dumb before he didn't). Of course, the Fed and Biden's weakness and incompetence vis-a-vis Putin has my blood pressure up today. I am referring to Cook's relations with Congress. That bill came out of committee 20-2. How is that doing a fantastic job? Even Loup Ventures is saying this could change Apple's business model. So we're just going to blame dumb members of Congress for Apple's inability to win hearts and minds? Cook has no accountability for this? Apple blew off a meeting with a co-sponsor of this App store bill. From PED's article:
Yeah, great job there Tim (go ahead and make some snarky political comment about the rebuffed senator. But there are plenty of Democrat co-sponsors of this bill). All I know is, when Trump was president, he was walking around Apple factories and taking credit for them. Now, nobody wants to touch Tim Apple. Maybe Tim should install an ice cream parlor at the HQ.
Honestly, this site is less of critical look at Apple and its stock, than just a general rah-rah board for Apple.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
Posts: 325
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Post by crispin on Feb 22, 2022 16:28:10 GMT -8
The vast majority of the world is thanking their preferred deities that Putin’s useful idiot in no longer POTUS. God only knows what kind of horrible chaos would be unfolding now. Also, last I checked, President Biden has never called for the boycott of Apple, as opposed to the prior pathetic dotard. Tim is doing an amazing job, and I’ve got compete confidence that he will lead Apple through the thicket of potential regulations. It may be messy, and there may be a few cuts and scrapes, but he’s shown again and again that he’s got the skill set to guide Apple out the other end. Benefit of the doubt is often correctly in short supply, but when it comes to Tim I’ve got quite a heap of the stuff.
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Post by macster on Feb 22, 2022 19:10:46 GMT -8
The vast majority of the world is thanking their preferred deities that Putin’s useful idiot in no longer POTUS. God only knows what kind of horrible chaos would be unfolding now. Also, last I checked, President Biden has never called for the boycott of Apple, as opposed to the prior pathetic dotard. Putin’s useful idiot as you say kept Putin grounded, guessing and NATO STRONG supplying Javelins to Ukraine while Biden supplied blankets with his son making millions there suspiciously. Meanwhile the media ran with the Hillary Clinton Russia Russia lying narratives as Durham has filed and indicted 3 so far. I still encounter people who have a negative attitude toward Apple for not disclosing the contents of the iPhone to the FBI at the time. Most didn’t understand about this back door issue, why Trump called for a boycott or uproar like the majority have even liberal media. After all being soft on crime is the Democrat’s trait.
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Post by benoir on Feb 22, 2022 19:14:18 GMT -8
Honestly, this site is less of critical look at Apple and its stock, than just a general rah-rah board for Apple.
Tend to agree that there could be more critique of Apple AAPL and less rah/rah (see a couple of posts above... I posted rah rah! so I am just as guilty) Given that most of us here are long AAPL it would be useful to have more discussion on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities threats that drive AAPL's share price over the long time. Political commentry related to Apple AAPL is problematic as I think most people find it difficult to be objectively critical - personal biases always surface, more so now in an age of hyper partisanship. Nether the left nor the right has all the answers.....fact! I do, however find this site useful for gaging sentiment amongst fellow investors. Now.... where's the bottom and who's going to BTFD? Are we going to hit bottom and head straight up? - V shaped or Do we head do and track sideways for a while before recovery? - more U shaped.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 22, 2022 19:41:07 GMT -8
Maybe Tim should install an ice cream parlor at the HQ. Easy on the political side. Completely straying from the topic, but FWIW there was a frozen yogurt snack bar in IL1, on the 1st floor. We only headed over there once. Nothing special, but the topping were included. IMO most frozen yogurt topping are bad choices, including the M&M's that I had that day. They just don't work well at lower temps, so even if it isn't Sharfenberger quality, you still lose more of the chocolatey goodness. Still, a nice break, and like most of the on-campus options it was fairly affordable. Someone said Steve had decided to make food good an affordable, as it was preferable to have employees stay on campus. Those were my pre-sushi days, but the wood fired pizza was always great. No one can do everything right. I agree, dealing with the current governmental issues isn't going as well as it could. We can grasp at straws, wondering if the former CEO or former President would have done it not just differently, but better. Instead, how can the current situation improve, and what does it take to get there? Side issues can distract or slow the process, but at some point this will come back. How can Apple and the government come together to a realization that Apple's current solution is pretty good, especially compared to the competitors?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2022 3:25:15 GMT -8
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 23, 2022 5:18:11 GMT -8
Thanks to JD and macster for keeping politics out of their AFB comments. I know it must be difficult to follow rules meant for *all* AFB members, so their continuing effort is much appreciated. /s
* If Tim has any brains - and I am beginning to wonder - he won't mess with Trump's new app.
* Of course, the Fed and Biden's weakness and incompetence vis-a-vis Putin has my blood pressure up today.
* All I know is, when Trump was president, he was walking around Apple factories and taking credit for them. Now, nobody wants to touch Tim Apple.
* Most didn’t understand about this back door issue, why Trump called for a boycott or uproar like the majority have even liberal media. After all being soft on crime is the Democrat’s trait.
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Post by Lstream on Feb 23, 2022 5:45:03 GMT -8
Out of respect for our mods, I am showing great restraint and keeping my mouth shut and not responding to some of the stuff I am reading here. Except for this little violation.
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Post by Luckychoices on Feb 23, 2022 6:16:57 GMT -8
Out of respect for our mods, I am showing great restraint and keeping my mouth shut and not responding to some of the stuff I am reading here. Except for this little violation. I *also* respect our moderators. And I'm hoping, as you are, that the members who are continuing to ignore the "no politics" rule, *established* by the moderators, will cease their pointed political comments. Despite the opinions of one or two members, the comments are *not* clever, cute, insightful or funny. The "no politics" rule will help save this valuable board only if *all* members follow it, IMO.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2022 6:54:16 GMT -8
Thanks to JD and macster for keeping politics out of their AFB comments. I know it must be difficult to follow rules meant for *all* AFB members, so their continuing effort is much appreciated. /s I'm beginning to feel insulted and left out. I also post stories that show how our political leaders are having a detrimental affect on not only Apple but also our nation. I insist that you edit your posts to also include my name. And I want my name to be in bold.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,632
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Post by mark on Feb 23, 2022 7:34:09 GMT -8
Given that most of us here are long AAPL it would be useful to have more discussion on strengths, weaknesses, opportunities threats that drive AAPL's share price over the long time. Is anyone here short Apple? I highly doubt it. I don't know. But for 40+ years, I've heard "don't fight the fed" during every cycle of interest rate changes. No one can do everything right. I agree, dealing with the current governmental issues isn't going as well as it could. We can grasp at straws, wondering if the former CEO or former President would have done it not just differently, but better. Instead, how can the current situation improve, and what does it take to get there? Side issues can distract or slow the process, but at some point this will come back. How can Apple and the government come together to a realization that Apple's current solution is pretty good, especially compared to the competitors? Exactly! Putin is taking action NOW, not while the previous president was in office. And governments around the world are shaking Apple down NOW, not while Steve Jobs, or the next CEO, is in charge.
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Post by silkstone on Feb 23, 2022 8:03:37 GMT -8
Thanks to JD and macster for keeping politics out of their AFB comments. I know it must be difficult to follow rules meant for *all* AFB members, so their continuing effort is much appreciated. /s I'm beginning to feel insulted and left out. I also post stories that show how our political leaders are having a detrimental affect on not only Apple but also our nation. I insist that you edit your posts to also include my name. And I want my name to be in bold. ok dave
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Post by Lstream on Feb 23, 2022 8:15:16 GMT -8
Apple was a much smaller company when Jobs was in charge. There wasn't much to shake down back then. Apple is being targeted due to its massive financial success under Tim Cook. Comes with the territory. Big and successful puts a target on your back. Whether there is merit or not. And if there is no merit, politicians are totally OK with making stuff up to justify their parasitical tendencies. So ya, all you haters go ahead and slam Tim Cook for the dominant company he has helped build.
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Post by macster on Feb 23, 2022 8:19:51 GMT -8
Out of respect for our mods, I am showing great restraint and keeping my mouth shut and not responding to some of the stuff I am reading here. Except for this little violation. I *also* respect our moderators. And I'm hoping, as you are, that the members who are continuing to ignore the "no politics" rule, *established* by the moderators, will cease their pointed political comments. Despite the opinions of one or two members, the comments are *not* clever, cute, insightful or funny. The "no politics" rule will help save this valuable board only if *all* members follow it, IMO. Lucky shows his bias by not calling out crispin’s political comments replying to JD ‘s post which was hardly that polarized. Then this… “The vast majority of the world is thanking their preferred deities that Putin’s useful idiot is no longer POTUS. God only knows what kind of horrible chaos would be unfolding now. Also, last I checked, President Biden has never called for the boycott of Apple, as opposed to the prior pathetic dotard.” Very flammable comment wouldn’t you say Mr. Lucky? I could have turned the other cheek but there were errors and a need for context in those remarks. To reiterate… has dropped because of the latest black swan event that involves geo political entities. Even a hint of the blame game opens conflict, it can’t be avoided. As always in respect to avoid more than a hint flammable political comments, I have refrained from starting it. JD’s comments were pretty truthful but it insulted the tribal group think.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 23, 2022 8:24:23 GMT -8
The vast majority of the world is thanking their preferred deities that Putin’s useful idiot in no longer POTUS. God only knows what kind of horrible chaos would be unfolding now. Also, last I checked, President Biden has never called for the boycott of Apple, as opposed to the prior pathetic dotard. Tim is doing an amazing job, and I’ve got compete confidence that he will lead Apple through the thicket of potential regulations. It may be messy, and there may be a few cuts and scrapes, but he’s shown again and again that he’s got the skill set to guide Apple out the other end. Benefit of the doubt is often correctly in short supply, but when it comes to Tim I’ve got quite a heap of the stuff. That's hilarious. Putin invaded Crimea when Obama was president. Then four years went by. Then Putin invaded Ukraine again when Biden was president. THANK GOD TRUMP ISN'T PRESIDENT OR RUSSIA MIGHT DO BAD THINGS! As for Tim, I don't know what gives you such confidence. Sounds like blind faith to me, but I hope you are right.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 23, 2022 8:41:48 GMT -8
Apple was a much smaller company when Jobs was in charge. There wasn't much to shake down back then. Apple is being targeted due to its massive financial success under Tim Cook. Comes with the territory. Big and successful puts a target on your back. Whether there is merit or not. And if there is no merit, politicians are totally OK with making stuff up to justify their parasitical tendencies. So ya, all you haters go ahead and slam Tim Cook for the dominant company he has helped build. Apple has long had a reputation of arrogance as viewed from DC. For years, Apple didn't even have lobbyists. There was an article several years ago written about this. Congresscritters are rent-seekers. That's just a given. But I think more of its problem today stems from de-platforming conservatives. It really is more of a collective guilt thing among Big Tech (e.g., Twitter and FB), but Apple has not been innocent in this. So you add the natural rent-seeking of congress, plus the anger of conservative members of Congress, and who is left? The 2 California senators? "Haters" is a word used to brush off any criticism as ad hominem. That all you got? Rappers appropriated the word "hater," but Nixon was the one who first used it as far as I can tell. And Nixon was right, he was hated by the media for Alger Hiss and some other things regardless of what he accomplished, long before Watergate.
But I digress. I do not "hate" Tim. I have valid criticism of him for his non-business activities, e.g., social justice religion and lack of commitment to free speech for half of the addressable market for Apple products. Obviously, Tim is very competent at supply chain management. The jury remains out on Apple as innovator under his reign. iPhone is still the big thing at Apple. That can't last forever. Everything else has been about monetizing that. And iPhone's app store is about to take on a torpedo. iPhone is great. But it is a Jobs legacy product. That all you got?
Due to my tax basis, I really have no choice but to wait things about. But I am very nervous about the regulatory environment. Blood is in the water and even piss-ant Netherlands thinks it can mess with Apple. And instead of defending our companies, our own government is hostile to Big US Tech. And the current president doesn't seem to have Silicon Valley's back. He won't even meet with Elon Musk.
Do we have any friends left in government? Foreign regulators seem a lot more emboldened now. And why wouldn't they be? If we have a circular firing squad, what do they have to fear? Funny, those tariffs don't look so terrible now in retrospect...
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 23, 2022 10:18:12 GMT -8
Due to my tax basis, I really have no choice but to wait things about. You always have a choice, even if it feels bad. Today's fed tax rates are ok, even if not quite as low as ones in the past. CA's rates add a big tax on it. If that's what you are trying to avoid, then figure out if it's worth it to you. We have known at least 3 families where the bread winner flew out to work during the week, and the flight or even drive from Phoenix or Vegas is short to LA. Pick a year and do it for the 183 days or whatever, but be on the up and up because CA is likely to follow up. Or pay the 12-13% CA rate and consider it a donation, thinking of all the roads and schools you are paying for. Either way, if you want out of the stock, it will suck a lot more if it underperforms than if you follow your gut and sell some or get out, if that's what you really want. Don't let the tax tail wag the dog. If you're not ready yet, but are almost there, one way is to sell covered calls against your shares, putting off the capital gain. One problem with this is that the short side, those covered calls, are counted as short term gains. ATM, 2 years out, is just over $30 now, so that would be $1.5M if on 50k of shares. But pick something with some appreciation, like @200 which is about ~10% annualized, and you cut that in half. Then take a sabbatical in 2024, or even a long trip after moving first. There are ways. They might even be worth it. But if you really think AAPL is going to underperform, or like a sin stock you just don't agree with it, then don't let taxes slow you down. Like Nike would say, "Just do it!". Do we have any friends left in government? Foreign regulators seem a lot more emboldened now. And why wouldn't they be? If we have a circular firing squad, what do they have to fear? Funny, those tariffs don't look so terrible now in retrospect... One question is how much of this is purely driven by governments around the world, and how much of it is public opinion and politicians trying to do things to make them happy, to keep the vote? Ideally there is a connection there. But that switches part of this over to a marketing issue. Change public perception, and make Apple seen as the good guy, by the masses. What would that take? Apple already does some funding for various kids and underprivileged programs, and they could go even bigger there but that might not move the public perception needle. They also try to do the right thing on privacy, though other companies have been on the smear campaign against Apple for years. I bet Apple could have a marketing campaign related to those, continuing the privacy push, but also showing off the developer stories. Pick one or a few kids coming through these programs who have done well. Show off someone else who switched from a low paying dreary job to an app developer. Or someone doing it as a side business. Or someone who wrote something that really helps people. And helping kids, underprivileged, those in danger, or those needing help, always pulls at the heart strings. This is showing off the American dream, that you can change your situation and make a difference, for yourself and others. They can also then show Apple going from 2 kids in a garage, to getting bigger, to now where they are now, employing many. While also giving opportunities for others to grow. Cut to 2 kids, around a screen, programming a little simple game. A marketing team should be able to do even better than that. But the main goal would be changing public perception from Apple just being one of the huge tech companies that is taking in all the earnings, and taking a big bite out of the developer's profits while having monopoly level powers, to all of the greatness Apple does and is. Show Apple clearly as the good guy. And that makes those coming after Apple, some companies but especially the politicians and governments, into the bad guy.
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Post by hledgard on Feb 23, 2022 13:11:37 GMT -8
This has been said before, but in my view it is under-appreciated. Apple pays a fortune in taxes. -- employees who work for them, and stockholders who have paid vast amount of taxes from Apple's profits. Why try to shoot at it?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Feb 23, 2022 13:53:27 GMT -8
This has been said before, but in my view it is under-appreciated. Apple pays a fortune in taxes. -- employees who work for them, and stockholders who have paid vast amount of taxes from Apple's profits. Why try to shoot at it? The two most important events in a politician’s life are: 1. The day that he is elected. 2. The day that he is re-elected. Taxes are not important (notice the 30 trillion dollar deficit). What is important are campaign contributions. Think extortion.
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