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Post by aaplsauce on Feb 23, 2022 22:53:20 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 23, 2022 23:10:31 GMT -8
The weekly channel I’ve been tracking will likely be busted tomorrow. The Russian invasion is a significant event, one that will introduce tons of uncertainty in the market.
Apple will be fine in the long term of course but there could be significant pain in the next year, as PEs could continue to get compressed.
One wildcard is how the Fed policies change as a result of this event. On the one hand, energy prices will rise which will continue to put upward pressure on inflation, so the Fed has a reason to continue with their plans to raise rates.
However, “ turmoil in financial markets” could be used by the Fed as a reason for caution. The last thing they want is to start a recession on the cusp of a major war.
Anyway, that’s all speculation. What I can say is that we haven’t had this kind of turmoil in the market since March 2020 and during black swan events the market is moved by irrationality and panic.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Feb 24, 2022 4:27:48 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 24, 2022 7:03:33 GMT -8
Bought a little just below 156.4 (apparently near the relative high). Not quite the low print of 152 at the opening bell, and not the 154 when I decided to pick up a little, but at the last dip's low, while backing off the size a little due to worries of lower lows and that this can go on for a while.
Many others are making trades, with AAPL at a third of it's daily volume, less than 30 minutes in.
But yea, a 25bp hike seems more likely than 50, but is needed to change the tide a little. If looking for going a little softer, they could slow their other changes. We met another parent recently who is a bond trader, and I should have had some shop talk when chatting at the state meet last weekend. I'm not interested by bonds, but it will be good to hear a different perspective, and of what is happening in that market.
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
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Post by chinacat on Feb 24, 2022 7:47:29 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 24, 2022 8:10:38 GMT -8
Hey, it could always be worse. Russian stock market is down 40% today. Buying opportunity? (jk)
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 24, 2022 8:27:34 GMT -8
Hey, it could always be worse. Russian stock market is down 40% today. Buying opportunity? (jk) I'm sure there are buying opportunities there, for people already familiar with that market. Gordon Gecko is sitting somewhere, making trades, but probably also getting out quick to avoid lockdowns from sanctions. And like dealing with China, or oil deals in certain south american countries, there's always the worry that the government will just decide to take it all. As for the US market, sometimes there's the feeling of if making any trades or purchases is ethical. This was even most so around 9-11. But the flip side is that there are sellers due to worries, and if fewer buyers come to the table then the prices will drop even further. Being a buyer makes it less-worse on a panic seller. I made a couple more purchases in random accounts that had a little bit of money in them, from dividends or from year-end sales. 18 shares bought in one. 160 shares bought in another. No reason to have cash sitting around losing money to inflation. AAPL isn't down as much this year as many, but it will be up 17% or so from these levels when it next touches the ATH, and seeing 190 or even 200 will be even more yummy goodness. The question doesn't seem to be if, but when. There's a pretty good chance it will be within 12 months, but there's a non-trivial chance that market issues could make it take years. Still, it seems worthwhile, without going too crazy on risk.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Feb 24, 2022 8:47:17 GMT -8
Updated weekly chart, on a knife's edge...
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 24, 2022 8:52:27 GMT -8
Hey, it could always be worse. Russian stock market is down 40% today. Buying opportunity? (jk) A buddy of mine is paper trading the RSX, at a 52-week low today. You don't have to be Gordon Gecko to want to hedge geopolitical risk (or are we all supposed to virtue signal by not mitigating our losses?). Putin will be fine, as he has Xi on his side. Taiwan is next! But on the upside, at least we got a 4-year respite from mean tweets. Edit: Stephen Weiss on CNBC today talking about Taiwan: "Apple has one million employees in China."
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 24, 2022 11:14:25 GMT -8
Hey, it could always be worse. Russian stock market is down 40% today. Buying opportunity? (jk) A buddy of mine is paper trading the RSX, at a 52-week low today. You don't have to be Gordon Gecko to want to hedge geopolitical risk (or are we all supposed to virtue signal by not mitigating our losses?). Putin will be fine, as he has Xi on his side. Taiwan is next! But on the upside, at least we got a 4-year respite from mean tweets. Edit: Stephen Weiss on CNBC today talking about Taiwan: "Apple has one million employees in China." Why just a paper trade? Invest, or sit on the side lines, but don't say "Oh, I bought some, with monopoly money". Geez JD, you gotta go after that buddy as if he was Sponge. I like to think Taiwan is different. But there is a chance China decides to do the same thing, and Apple does have exposure to China and Taiwan. That would be why AAPL is still down a lot, whereas the Nasdaq is back to a little green, and most of FAANG is in the green. Looking down my feed, which is full of stocks I put there about 20 years ago, it's interesting to see the mix of red and green, making a lot more sense than the blanket 2% off that most things were this morning. Oil up, while most oil majors are down, and some are down a lot (BP). US based and dependent companies up a little. MO and CSCO both down? BBY up. Like any day, there's probably some other underlying reasons on some of these. Banks are down, probably on likely delays in interest rates. Overstock up big....but they beat and are in early stage investments including crypto. Today's moves are not all about Russia. Like the taking of Chernobyl, one advantage of a quick and uneven war, where the goal is adoption, is less damage and death. There's no reason to blow up the power plant, nuclear or otherwise, if you want it for power next week. If logical about this (like the market, that's not a given), that should minimize infrastructure damage, both basic and businesses/economic. Both this time, and if in the future things happen elsewhere.
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Post by kpas1 on Feb 24, 2022 11:26:44 GMT -8
NASDAQ already well into the green for today and AAPL trying to get there too. Guess the bad news was already baking in yesterday. Still, the prices at the open today were suitable for BTD. Coulda...legged into a call spread for free (but didn't).
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 24, 2022 12:17:13 GMT -8
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Post by kpas1 on Feb 24, 2022 12:27:29 GMT -8
VIX is still elevated and won't stay there forever. Trying the volatility play, buying an out of the money VIX put spread a few months out; e.g., betting VIX is back below 20 in May. A bit of guesswork but maybe the ROI is worth a small bet.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Feb 24, 2022 18:06:32 GMT -8
VIX is still elevated and won't stay there forever. Trying the volatility play, buying an out of the money VIX put spread a few months out; e.g., betting VIX is back below 20 in May. A bit of guesswork but maybe the ROI is worth a small bet. I like this idea, but this in particular seems a good place to sell a spread early. The VIX seems random enough that a spike at the wrong time would be bad. Statistically, it probably all works out. But as an occasional trade, 80% might be less risky enough that it's better than holding out for the whole theoretical gain. As I've said before, a neighbor talked about playing with the VIX, now 11 or 12 years ago. Hit it right, or with a decent timeframe, and it's nearly a sure thing. Congrats!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
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Post by JDSoCal on Feb 24, 2022 18:21:30 GMT -8
VIX is still elevated and won't stay there forever. Trying the volatility play, buying an out of the money VIX put spread a few months out; e.g., betting VIX is back below 20 in May. A bit of guesswork but maybe the ROI is worth a small bet. At the risk of damaging my hard-earned diplomatic reputation and sounding contrary, the VIX ain't all that high considering the circumstances. The 52-week high is 39, which is about 30% higher. At any rate, avoid trading the VXX. And don't ask me how I know that.
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crispin
Member
KBJ for the win. AAPL long and strong since 2000
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Post by crispin on Feb 24, 2022 20:59:17 GMT -8
I spent much of the summer of 2007 flying back and forth to Moscow while working on a film project there. Many of you will remember the very first iPhone came out at that time. I was living in New York and bought one almost immediately before another trip back to Moscow. When I arrived, our driver/fixer let it be known that he would really love to have an iPhone if I was interested in selling mine. I couldn't really afford to be without a phone so I politely declined, much to his considerable disappointment. I felt badly since he was a friendly and wonderful guy. We spent loads of time together - many hours driving around Moscow (often stuck in endless traffic) singing along to his favorite (terrible) hair metal music from the 80s, and generally having a good laugh. I didn't really like the city, but most of the locals I worked with were fantastic, him included. Anyway, on may next trip back to New York I bought another iPhone and brought it with me on my return. When I showed him what I'd brought he just about danced across the room, which if you know Muscovites is not exactly in character. I had intended it as a gift but he insisted on paying me something (can't remember how much but I do remember it was crisp US bills) and taking me to his apartment for some home made borscht. I wasn't such a strong Apple believer as I am now, but I was impressed at how a "magical" little piece of tech could make someone so happy. And I'm quite sure for a brief moment he was one of the extremely few people in all of Russia who had an iPhone. I was thinking about this today as I remembered the great people I'd met there (and later Ukraine too) during happier times.
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