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Post by aaplsauce on Mar 8, 2022 23:29:21 GMT -8
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Post by benoir on Mar 9, 2022 5:44:35 GMT -8
I’m guessing MacPro is dead in the water to all but those who’d like to load up to 1.5T of ram.. or add some obscure card? I’m also guessing we are not going to see a new 5k iMac.
Guess it will have to be Mac Studio next.
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mark
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Post by mark on Mar 9, 2022 7:22:09 GMT -8
Assuming the whole crypto-coin thing still exists in a few months (and it very likely will), there is a danger that coin miners will attempt to snatch up as many of the new Macs as possible. I've read that at "scale", in the end all that matters is kW consumed per unit coin produced. So if a new Mac can use half (or even less) the kW than a stack of fancy video cards will use, that all flows to "profit".
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Mar 9, 2022 7:54:50 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 9, 2022 8:22:38 GMT -8
Assuming the who crypto-coin thing still exists in a few months (and it very likely will), there is a danger that coin miners will attempt to snatch up as many of the new Macs as possible. I've read that at "scale", in the end all that matters is kW consumed per unit coin produced. So if a new Mac can use half (or even less) the kW than a stack of fancy video cards will use, that all flows to "profit". As a shareholder, that's a danger I'd be happy to see. The same has been true for ages, that those using lots of computers or computing power sometimes have their interest peaked. I remember photos of a server room, packed with rack mounted Mac Minis. We're still in this "supply limited" situation, at least with some products. For a long time, many gaming consoles were nearly impossible to find, and some were putting a 100% markup on used models. We finally snagged a nintendo switch OLED just before xmas, though I see target/walmart/amazon all have stock now, nearly 3 months later. Same thing with cars. We snagged a new Sienna just before xmas. It was strange walking around their empty lot, with about 10 used cars up front, and then 5 new ones to the side that were just waiting to be picked up. Things will change, though some quicker than others. I just read One Up on Wall Street, from around '92, and he talked of the cycles with cars, and how it often took 3 years to catch up with demand. Even if it will be tough on some customers, strong demand for the units is a good thing. And Apple should manage to stay on top of things, not having a huge oversupply that some companies hit after plowing through a high demand period. Just like Peloton.
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 9, 2022 8:57:01 GMT -8
Kind of a silly emotional article (much like most of the Ukraine coverage these days). Of course Apple desktop computers are expensive. They are geared towards business and time = money which justifies the premium of high performance per watt. This has me rethinking my post yesterday about Apple pursuing (non mobile) gaming. While gaming is popular, it is not a high margin sector for hardware. A top end gaming rig is going to cost a lot less than the Mac Studio (consoles are sold at a loss). Gamers would demand Apple compete on price, merely to capture a niche it already dominates financially (mobile gaming). Whereas Apple can name its price for productivity-adding computers in the workplace. Macs and Macbooks aren't designed or marketed for gaming, yet gamers still bitch about how expensive they are. Is that a demo to chase? Sort of makes sense that for people for whom time is money (business) price is less important than for people for whom time is something to fritter away gaming on a dedicated machine sitting on a desk. I wouldn't think most gamers are the super rich hard working overachieving types. I stopped gaming because of what a productivity-murderer it is. If you compare mobile gaming, everyone has a mobile phone anyway, and can sneak in a little gaming here and there, on breaks, in elevators, etc. It can be done discreetly for those who still think gaming carries the nerd or loser stigma of the neon-lit watercooled desktop gaming rig in your mom's basement. I'm not saying that there isn't some way for Apple to capitalize more on gaming (especially in laptops for students), but the real margins are in workplace productivity. I’m guessing MacPro is dead in the water to all but those who’d like to load up to 1.5T of ram.. or add some obscure card? It's say there is a 99% certainty that an Mx-based MacPro will ship and it will be a monster.
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Mar 9, 2022 9:48:29 GMT -8
… I'm not saying that there isn't some way for Apple to capitalize more on gaming (especially in laptops for students), but the real margins are in workplace productivity. I’m guessing MacPro is dead in the water to all but those who’d like to load up to 1.5T of ram.. or add some obscure card? It's say there is a 99% certainty that an Mx-based MacPro will ship and it will be a monster. I agree entirely, JD. One of several advantages derived from Apple Silicon is the ability to more precisely target various market segments. It’s clear now that “Peek Performance” meant “A peek at how Apple Silicon enables us to match performance to markets with various requirements.” This should scare competitors across a broad range of industries and applications. Tim Cook may have made his bones at Apple in managing the production end of the business, but it’s becoming ever clearer that he’s pretty good at the strategic and marketing parts, too.
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Post by benoir on Mar 9, 2022 10:10:02 GMT -8
I’m guessing MacPro is dead in the water to all but those who’d like to load up to 1.5T of ram.. or add some obscure card? It's say there is a 99% certainty that an Mx-based MacPro will ship and it will be a monster. Poorly worded by myself. The current MacPro is dead in the water. Would agree with you on the 99% certainty that it will be a monster.….and 1% they trash can it….
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 9, 2022 10:43:45 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 9, 2022 15:53:12 GMT -8
It's say there is a 99% certainty that an Mx-based MacPro will ship and it will be a monster. Poorly worded by myself. The current MacPro is dead in the water. Would agree with you on the 99% certainty that it will be a monster.….and 1% they trash can it…. Hard to imagine Apple R&D-ing and bringing to market that incredibly under-reported UltraFusion technology and stopping at a mere two interconnected CPUs.
Maybe I am missing something here, but this seems like an obvious Upsell Margin Extender™ (UMP - if Gregg Thurman can make up acronyms so can I), and oh BTW a 4 or 8 or 16 CPU tower would truly be a PC Terminator, to use Duckpins' terminology. Of course a larger footprint like the Cheese Grater Case™ (CGC) would allow for the extra cooling required.
Just going from 48 to 64 cores on the M1 Ultra Mac Studio is a $1000 bump. So what does an extra CPU cost? 🤑 💰
But seriously folks, for those who can't possibly get enough Photoshop or Premiere or Final Cut Pro rendering speeds, the sky is the limit, eh? Anyone here work in the content creation industry?
I just want to drive multiple 4K monitors and multiple video streams and have 3 or 400 Firefox tabs open at one time. BTW the specs on the Studio Display seem a little underwhelming. 60Hz and not Thunderbolt 4 native and no ProMotion technology.
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mark
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Post by mark on Mar 9, 2022 16:30:58 GMT -8
Just going from 48 to 64 cores on the M1 Ultra Mac Studio is a $1000 bump. So what does an extra CPU cost? 🤑 💰
You know this is a particularly interesting question that I've been speculating about ever since the first M1-based Macbook air came out ... a cheaper model with 7 GPU cores and a more expensive model with 8 GPU cores. Now, anyone involved in the semiconductor world knows that a company doesn't design/manufacture a chip with 7 and another one with 8, that makes no sense at all. Instead they make wafers ALL with 8, and then sort the dies (which are cut out of the wafers during production) during testing - those with 8 working GPUs go into the "bin" for 8 GPU parts, and those with 7 working GPUs go into the bin for 7 GPU parts. Now, if only 8 GPU parts were required, some percentage of dies would end up in the trash. So it is entirely possible that the incremental cost of the 7 GPU parts is "zero" (zero for the die itself, not zero for testing/packaging/etc which is a substantial part of the cost relative to the silicon cost itself). This improves the overall yield from the wafers which is a very important, arguably the most important, measurement for success in the semiconductor fabrication world. Memories are often done that way, a 32Gbit memory might be designed and fabricated with 36Gbit capacity, and then when some degments of memory are "bad" (i.e. they fail one or more portions of testing), those segments are simply marked as bad and permanently blocked off (at a level lower than the logical interface level), and the chip still shows 32Gbit as expected. This is done to improve yields from the wafers. They've done this so well for memories that the yields are often in the high 90s at this point. For further speculation, it is possible, though not probable, that the wafer does indeed have 2 types of dies on it, some with 8 GPUs and some with 7 GPUs depending on position and/or geometry on the wafer. But I doubt that is the case. TSMC prefers uniformity for mass produced wafers.
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crispin
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Post by crispin on Mar 9, 2022 16:31:36 GMT -8
It's say there is a 99% certainty that an Mx-based MacPro will ship and it will be a monster. Poorly worded by myself. The current MacPro is dead in the water. Would agree with you on the 99% certainty that it will be a monster.….and 1% they trash can it…. Just finishing a 4K doc film project in FCPX on my 2013 trash can. It's still a champ. I have to keep reminding myself that I'm using a machine almost ten years old. The real potential areas of improvement for me would all revolve around transcoding and rendering. When I first started out on AVID systems I could literally go out to lunch while I waited for an effect to render. On my 2013 running FCPX at most I might wait a minute or two typically. The ultimate goal is always real-time. Of course as processors improve, software also become more demanding to take advantage of the new power. So it seems the real-time mirage is always just out of reach. But I'm increasingly optimistic that the gap will be erased in all but the most demanding rendering with the eventual MacPro Mx release.
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ono
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Post by ono on Mar 9, 2022 17:47:50 GMT -8
The Apple silicon Mac Pro might not get an M1 chip www.macworld.com/article/621419/peek-performance-event-things-you-might-have-missed.htmlAt the end of Tuesday’s presentation, Apple teased the final Mac in the Apple silicon transition, the Mac Pro, would be “for another day.” But earlier in the keynote, John Ternus said Apple was adding “one last chip” to the M1 family, the M1 Ultra. So either the Mac Pro is getting a variation of the Ultra chip (or more than one) or it’s getting something else that we haven’t seen before. Fom an previous post of mine: He [Srouji] added, "With its powerful CPU, massive GPU, incredible Neural Engine, ProRes hardware acceleration, and huge amount of unified memory, M1 Ultra completes the M1 family as the world’s most powerful and capable chip for a personal computer." Should be interesting, either way.
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ono
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Post by ono on Mar 9, 2022 18:01:42 GMT -8
"BTW the specs on the Studio Display seem a little underwhelming. 60Hz and not Thunderbolt 4 native and no ProMotion technology."
This.
I suspect that LG may have fallen behind on their product road map, and what Apple wanted -120Hz and TB4 - wasn't ready. (I recall the Power Mac G4 Cube was introduced, but the 22" Cinema display to pair wiith it had delayed availability of months. That didn't help the Cube's sales.)
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chinacat
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Post by chinacat on Mar 9, 2022 18:14:29 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 9, 2022 18:34:11 GMT -8
Just going from 48 to 64 cores on the M1 Ultra Mac Studio is a $1000 bump. So what does an extra CPU cost? 🤑 💰
You know this is a particularly interesting question that I've been speculating about ever since the first M1-based Macbook air came out ... a cheaper model with 7 GPU cores and a more expensive model with 8 GPU cores. Now, anyone involved in the semiconductor world knows that a company doesn't design/manufacture a chip with 7 and another one with 8, that makes no sense at all. Instead they make wafers ALL with 8, and then sort the dies (which are cut out of the wafers during production) during testing - those with 8 working GPUs go into the "bin" for 8 GPU parts, and those with 7 working GPUs go into the bin for 7 GPU parts. Now, if only 8 GPU parts were required, some percentage of dies would end up in the trash. So it is entirely possible that the incremental cost of the 7 GPU parts is "zero" (zero for the die itself, not zero for testing/packaging/etc which is a substantial part of the cost relative to the silicon cost itself). This improves the overall yield from the wafers which is a very important, arguably the most important, measurement for success in the semiconductor fabrication world. Memories are often done that way, a 32Gbit memory might be designed and fabricated with 36Gbit capacity, and then when some degments of memory are "bad" (i.e. they fail one or more portions of testing), those segments are simply marked as bad and permanently blocked off (at a level lower than the logical interface level), and the chip still shows 32Gbit as expected. This is done to improve yields from the wafers. They've done this so well for memories that the yields are often in the high 90s at this point. For further speculation, it is possible, though not probable, that the wafer does indeed have 2 types of dies on it, some with 8 GPUs and some with 7 GPUs depending on position and/or geometry on the wafer. But I doubt that is the case. TSMC prefers uniformity for mass produced wafers. Funny, I'm currently reading/listening to Moore's Law, the bio of Intel's Gordon Moore. And these same yield problems with transistors were bedeviling engineers in the late 1950's. Interesting that it led to Bob Noyce's discovery that silicon was useful not only as a semiconductor, but also as an insulator (the planar process). Speaking of Intel, they are currently binning in reverse: Charging a premium for i9-12900K's that clock particularly high (5.5 GHz) and calling them i9-12900KS's. Intel is charging customers to deprive them of the fun of overclocking experiments. I was thinking of buying one, until I saw the much less energy hogging Mac Studio.
Poorly worded by myself. The current MacPro is dead in the water. Would agree with you on the 99% certainty that it will be a monster.….and 1% they trash can it…. Just finishing a 4K doc film project in FCPX on my 2013 trash can. It's still a champ. I have to keep reminding myself that I'm using a machine almost ten years old. The real potential areas of improvement for me would all revolve around transcoding and rendering. When I first started out on AVID systems I could literally go out to lunch while I waited for an effect to render. On my 2013 running FCPX at most I might wait a minute or two typically. The ultimate goal is always real-time. Of course as processors improve, software also become more demanding to take advantage of the new power. So it seems the real-time mirage is always just out of reach. But I'm increasingly optimistic that the gap will be erased in all but the most demanding rendering with the eventual MacPro Mx release. This is the same phenomenon with video games. No matter how much they increase the rendering power of GPU's, the coding is always more demanding. It's almost like it's a conspiracy to induce consumers to constantly upgrade hardware. Hopefully someday we'll acheive true real time photorealistic rendering. Both for video gaming and film. Do they still call it "film" when it's done on digital?
The Apple silicon Mac Pro might not get an M1 chip www.macworld.com/article/621419/peek-performance-event-things-you-might-have-missed.htmlAt the end of Tuesday’s presentation, Apple teased the final Mac in the Apple silicon transition, the Mac Pro, would be “for another day.” But earlier in the keynote, John Ternus said Apple was adding “one last chip” to the M1 family, the M1 Ultra. So either the Mac Pro is getting a variation of the Ultra chip (or more than one) or it’s getting something else that we haven’t seen before. From an previous post of mine: He [Srouji] added, "With its powerful CPU, massive GPU, incredible Neural Engine, ProRes hardware acceleration, and huge amount of unified memory, M1 Ultra completes the M1 family as the world’s most powerful and capable chip for a personal computer." Again, it seems obvious that Apple will use UltraFusion to combine 4 or more CPU's into Mac Pros, no?
It's also interesting reading about Noyce's epiphany to put everything on one chip - multiple transistors and their connectors - i.e., the microprocessor, and then see how all these years later Apple is trying to do the same thing by integrating GPU and memory and even multiple CPU's onto a single component.
Noyce was thinking in 1959, why create this silicon wafer, cut it up, and then reassemble the transistors back together? Seems like Apple is reinventing the integrated wafer, so to speak.
"BTW the specs on the Studio Display seem a little underwhelming. 60Hz and not Thunderbolt 4 native and no ProMotion technology." This. I suspect that LG may have fallen behind on their product road map, and what Apple wanted -120Hz and TB4 - wasn't ready. (I recall the Power Mac G4 Cube was introduced, but the 22" Cinema display to pair wiith it had delayed availability of months. That didn't help the Cube's sales.) I think this is another example of gearing hardware toward content creation pros, who generally want sharp 5K+ with perfect color, versus high refresh rates for gaming? Some of these gaming monitors are 4K with refresh at 160Hz! The high refresh prevents the ghosting of images in games.
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ono
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Post by ono on Mar 9, 2022 19:21:20 GMT -8
Good point regarding display target customer, but I'm with your earlier assessment... a little underwhelming.
I wonder if the rumors of Apple releasing one Mac Pro Intel upgrade with Ice Lake processors, an upgrade from the Cascade Lake (indicated that at least testing was supported in Xcode 13). Who knows what commitments may have been made to Mac Pro Intel customers? I would need to go back and listen to Tim's media event introduction of M1, but I think words implied there would be future Intel releases. I wonder what those customers' appetite is for an upgrade?
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JDSoCal
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Post by JDSoCal on Mar 10, 2022 7:21:43 GMT -8
Good point regarding display target customer, but I'm with your earlier assessment... a little underwhelming. I wonder if the rumors of Apple releasing one Mac Pro Intel upgrade with Ice Lake processors, an upgrade from the Cascade Lake (indicated that at least testing was supported in Xcode 13). Who knows what commitments may have been made to Mac Pro Intel customers? I would need to go back and listen to Tim's media event introduction of M1, but I think words implied there would be future Intel releases. I wonder what those customers' appetite is for an upgrade? Apple plans even better ‘Studio Display Pro’ with mini-LED and ProMotionYeah Apple and/or its suppliers dropped the ball. This monitor should've been ready to go with the release of Mac Studio.
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mark
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Post by mark on Mar 10, 2022 16:23:29 GMT -8
Good point regarding display target customer, but I'm with your earlier assessment... a little underwhelming. I wonder if the rumors of Apple releasing one Mac Pro Intel upgrade with Ice Lake processors, an upgrade from the Cascade Lake (indicated that at least testing was supported in Xcode 13). Who knows what commitments may have been made to Mac Pro Intel customers? I would need to go back and listen to Tim's media event introduction of M1, but I think words implied there would be future Intel releases. I wonder what those customers' appetite is for an upgrade? I wonder if somewhere in the deep background, Apple is still designing a bunch of Intel-based Macs? For the sole purpose of hedging a Chinese caused disruption of production in Taiwan.
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Dave
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Post by Dave on Mar 11, 2022 3:01:10 GMT -8
Good point regarding display target customer, but I'm with your earlier assessment... a little underwhelming. I wonder if the rumors of Apple releasing one Mac Pro Intel upgrade with Ice Lake processors, an upgrade from the Cascade Lake (indicated that at least testing was supported in Xcode 13). Who knows what commitments may have been made to Mac Pro Intel customers? I would need to go back and listen to Tim's media event introduction of M1, but I think words implied there would be future Intel releases. I wonder what those customers' appetite is for an upgrade? I wonder if somewhere in the deep background, Apple is still designing a bunch of Intel-based Macs? For the sole purpose of hedging a Chinese caused disruption of production in Taiwan. Mark, I think that would be a very wise thing to do. China has wanted Taiwan for a very long time now and may view the worlds events as the opportunity it needs. It would be foolish for Apple not to plan for such an event.
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