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Post by archibaldtuttle on Mar 13, 2022 12:18:10 GMT -8
Russia asks China for military assistance in Ukraine. Bearish for AAPL if this domino falls t.co/A2pvvIgY3Y
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 13, 2022 12:41:25 GMT -8
Russia asks China for military assistance in Ukraine. Bearish for AAPL if this domino falls t.co/A2pvvIgY3YIf China could stay out of this, that would likely be best. But I imagine that Russia sees it that if Ukraine can ask for outside equipment, then they should too. If this was a world domination game where multiple parties were looking to rule it all (ie Risk, etc), when Russia is preoccupied with Ukraine would be a perfect time to attack. Aside from the whole nuclear weapon thing, including submarines. I'm not hoping for WWIII, now or ever. But unless Russia is really underplaying their hand, if someone like China wanted to just come in and take over now, this would be the time. Short, medium, and longer term, that would probably be worse for geopolitics and the world wide economy. Still, there's times where you think you want to see the bully knocked down, even if it might not be a good thing.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 15, 2022 5:25:55 GMT -8
My worries are around China seeing this as an opportunity to attack Taiwan. Also saw how Japan is now getting in to it with Russia over some islands close to Japan. www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0AjdFIx9PY
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Post by Lstream on Mar 16, 2022 8:59:02 GMT -8
Is anyone considering or actually taking defensive action with their AAPL holdings as a precaution in the event that China invades Taiwan, and forces it to become part of mainland China?
Apple has numerous exposures here:
1. TSMC production 2. Political heat if they don’t disavow China - including the need to obey potential sanctions 3. How do they justify being an economic partner to an aggressor? Which has implications for their production capacity. 4. What happens to their China sales?
Will China really do this, considering the economic impact? Or do they believe that the West will tacitly approve, considering the severe economic consequences if they don’t? Who knows.
Having invested in AAPL in 2002, it now completely dominates my portfolio. So, an invasion would do serious harm to that portfolio. Possibly for a very long time.
This situation has me seriously thinking of selling a material amount of my shares as a hedge.
What does everyone else think, and are you considering taking defensive action?
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 16, 2022 9:22:25 GMT -8
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Post by Lstream on Mar 16, 2022 9:29:41 GMT -8
My thinking is still under development. Backing Ukraine with harsh sanctions against Russia is a lot simpler than doing the same to China. Russia is close to an irrelevant economy. Sanctioning China would hurt the West in a very significant way. Might result in less consensus and backbone.
EDIT - My first thought is to sell 10-20% of my Apple holdings. Tax consequences would be quite severe, but that is a good problem to have.
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Post by BillH on Mar 16, 2022 12:08:29 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Aug 2, 2022 1:27:05 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Aug 2, 2022 1:40:47 GMT -8
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Oct 28, 2022 2:37:21 GMT -8
Here are a couple of videos where Peter Zerhin describes some of the shortages the world is facing and why. Russia is facing a great famine and Putin is delusional.I’ve never considered why it’s so important to keep the flow of crude oil through the pipelines in the colder climates and what happens when the flow is stopped. Or the importance of neon gas on the digital world.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Oct 29, 2022 2:15:49 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 3, 2022 5:54:37 GMT -8
Peter Zeihan’s latest video on globalization’s end. It’s worth the few minutes it takes to watch.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 3, 2022 12:49:39 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 7, 2022 2:35:49 GMT -8
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 17, 2022 7:33:22 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
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Post by mark on Nov 17, 2022 10:55:42 GMT -8
The Fed is made up of some pretty smart people. They ALSO know that the "imputed rental cost" input into CPI is delayed, and they also know that the "medical expenditures" input into CPI is not updated in a timely manner. And therefore, surely they take that knowledge into account. So ... look for 50 bps in Dec, maybe 25 bps in Jan, and then a pause through the first quarter. Then we look at Q1 growth and Q1 CPI and work from there. I have ZERO doubt that if Q2/Q3 of 2023 is looking bad (deep enough recession), they will "panic" and drop rates quickly.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Nov 17, 2022 11:14:28 GMT -8
The Fed is made up of some pretty smart people. They ALSO know that the "imputed rental cost" input into CPI is delayed, and they also know that the "medical expenditures" input into CPI is not updated in a timely manner. And therefore, surely they take that knowledge into account. So ... look for 50 bps in Dec, maybe 25 bps in Jan, and then a pause through the first quarter. Then we look at Q1 growth and Q1 CPI and work from there. I have ZERO doubt that if Q2/Q3 of 2023 is looking bad (deep enough recession), they will "panic" and drop rates quickly. Thanks Mark. I know that everyone is hoping for a soft landing and perhaps that is what will happen, but I continue to see stories about the reason for our inflation is from supply restraints and that making the cost of money more expensive reduces the ability and incentive to expand production. So reducing the demand may work but it seems to be the most damaging and the hardest to recover from. And I also realize that may ability to comprehend all of the various factors necessary to make such decisions impossible, so it's wait and see.
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4aapl
Moderator
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Post by 4aapl on Nov 18, 2022 9:08:01 GMT -8
The Fed is made up of some pretty smart people. They ALSO know that the "imputed rental cost" input into CPI is delayed, and they also know that the "medical expenditures" input into CPI is not updated in a timely manner. And therefore, surely they take that knowledge into account. So ... look for 50 bps in Dec, maybe 25 bps in Jan, and then a pause through the first quarter. Then we look at Q1 growth and Q1 CPI and work from there. I have ZERO doubt that if Q2/Q3 of 2023 is looking bad (deep enough recession), they will "panic" and drop rates quickly. Thanks Mark. I know that everyone is hoping for a soft landing and perhaps that is what will happen, but I continue to see stories about the reason for our inflation is from supply restraints and that making the cost of money more expensive reduces the ability and incentive to expand production. So reducing the demand may work but it seems to be the most damaging and the hardest to recover from. And I also realize that may ability to comprehend all of the various factors necessary to make such decisions impossible, so it's wait and see. Like many things, it must be tough. If it were easy, we wouldn't have arm-chair quarterbacks, myself included, because things would always just be done correctly. I think we'd have to look out there at what has increased in price, and why? And just because supply was constrained 12 months ago doesn't mean that it still in now. Oil/energy still is up, partly from Russia, and partly from the supply issues around that. Grains might be up for the same thing, but it's hard for me to guess at how much difference the conflict makes on worldwide supply. Other things have calmed down a lot. Shipping is said to be doing much better, which also lowers the gouging, directly or indirectly, that was happening. Chips are getting to a supply/demand balance. Cars seem to be getting there too. House prices are coming down, but that is at least partly due to mortgage rates, so the net total for most buyers might be higher. I personally think the economy is well into the glide path right now, where no future hikes are needed. Though I think Mark's thoughts on a .5 and then .25 are probably right, if I was doing it I might take a month off (I think they average out to every 1.5 months), saying that we were letting the economy digest the moves, but also say that we were planning on raising them another .5 at the next meeting. That would keep the pressure, but give some time to see if more results turn, as we expect. But I'm not, so this is just more arm-chair quarterbacking. We'll see what happens. But to me, I don't see too many supply constraints potentially causing further inflation anymore.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
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Post by Dave on Nov 23, 2022 2:43:07 GMT -8
Peter Zeihan Last Warning Don’t let the title mislead, this is an overview of the world’s situation and how we got here and where we may be going. At about the 10:15 minute point in the video he makes reference to Apple and the position that it is in.
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,091
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Post by Dave on Feb 28, 2023 2:41:03 GMT -8
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