chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Mar 26, 2022 5:54:16 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 26, 2022 10:34:43 GMT -8
Using 180 for the top, a 15% gain would put this year's stock top at 207. 20% gives 216.
Each year is different, and IMO AAPL is going to have to work a little harder this year to get to those levels, but that mostly just means that Apple needs to keep plugging away in the direction it is already going. Over longer periods, that 15-20% has been happening, and some time frames are even pushing a 30% annualized rate.
Looking back at the weekend posts, Friday was AAPL's highest weekly close of the year!
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Post by CdnPhoto on Mar 26, 2022 10:39:17 GMT -8
Over longer periods, that 15-20% has been happening, and some time frames are even pushing a 30% annualized rate. Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | YE Close | 42.31 | 38 | 73 | 133 | 178 | % change | 55% | -10% | 92% | 82% | 34% |
Prices adjusted for splits. Please check my numbers. Yes, >30% y/y gains are very possible. Over the last 5 years, only one year was below that.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,632
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Post by 4aapl on Mar 26, 2022 11:53:45 GMT -8
Over longer periods, that 15-20% has been happening, and some time frames are even pushing a 30% annualized rate. Year | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | YE Close | 42.31 | 38 | 73 | 133 | 178 | % change | 55% | -10% | 92% | 82% | 34% |
Prices adjusted for splits. Please check my numbers. Yes, >30% y/y gains are very possible. Over the last 5 years, only one year was below that. Yep, many timeframes look even better. About the "worst" is looking at 10 years, as it looks like 3/26/2012 was nearly the top of a relative peak, at a close of 21.41. Even that, to today's ~174, gives an annualized rate of 23.3% AAPL historic chart on yahooApple has changed a lot in the last 10, 20, and more years. There are fewer "going big" options, as Apple has already grabbed the lions share of several high end markets. Apple seems to be on a trajectory of continued growth, but I think the slightly conservative view is to think about 15-20% growth in AAPL over longer periods of time, while realizing that there is room for larger gains in certain years or over time if Apple enters other markets or even just has other amazing products that broaden their base. And a car is just one of the possibilities. But that's just me trying to be cautious and a bit optimistic, while leaving room on the table to be surprised on the upside.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,429
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Post by chinacat on Mar 26, 2022 14:07:00 GMT -8
Apple has changed a lot in the last 10, 20, and more years. There are fewer "going big" options, as Apple has already grabbed the lions share of several high end markets. Apple seems to be on a trajectory of continued growth, but I think the slightly conservative view is to think about 15-20% growth in AAPL over longer periods of time, while realizing that there is room for larger gains in certain years or over time if Apple enters other markets or even just has other amazing products that broaden their base. And a car is just one of the possibilities. But that's just me trying to be cautious and a bit optimistic, while leaving room on the table to be surprised on the upside. But keep in mind that it’s now 15-20% of a higher and generally increasing base, especially for us “buy and hold” types. First thing you know we’re talking about real money .
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ono
Member
compensation
Posts: 537
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Post by ono on Mar 27, 2022 10:36:15 GMT -8
That Evercore Darayani $300. bull case was "within three years"
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Post by Luckychoices on Mar 27, 2022 12:07:46 GMT -8
Since the iPhone is, currently, the most common and identifiable Apple product, IMO, I think it's appropriate for successful AAPL investors(e.g., AFB members) to occasionally consider and appreciate how many business leaders from other companies(of mostly competitive companies) and many tech pundits gave Steve Jobs and Apple little chance to succeed in the phone business, almost 15 long years ago. I'm enclosing Jim Dalrymple's article from 2012(iPhone turns 5:Here are the naysayers) but the first link in his introduction will take you to the *entire* list of naysayers which was compiled by MacDailyNews in 2008, the year after the first iPhone was released. That complete list is also well worth reading. Cheers to the AAPL Longs! 😎 ================================= The Loop iPhone turns 5: Here are the naysayers Posted on Friday, June 29th, 2012 at 8:34 am. PT Written by Jim Dalrymple Everyone is writing about the iPhone’s birthday today and how much it changed the industry. That’s all true, but I thought I’d take a different approach and look at some of the iPhone naysayers so we could make fun of them together. This list was actually compiled in 2008 by MacDailyNews, but here are a few of my favorites. November 16, 2006, Palm CEO, Ed Colligan“We’ve learned and struggled for a few years here figuring out how to make a decent phone. PC guys are not going to just figure this out. They’re not going to just walk in.” ========== December 07, 2006, CNET, Michael Kanellos “Apple is slated to come out with a new phone… And it will largely fail…. Sales for the phone will skyrocket initially. However, things will calm down, and the Apple phone will take its place on the shelves with the random video cameras, cell phones, wireless routers and other would-be hits… When the iPod emerged in late 2001, it solved some major problems with MP3 players. Unfortunately for Apple, problems like that don’t exist in the handset business. Cell phones aren’t clunky, inadequate devices. Instead, they are pretty good. Really good.” ========== December 08, 2006, Morningstar analyst, Rod Bare“The economics of something like [an Apple iPhone] aren’t that compelling.” ========== January 15, 2007, Bloomberg, Matthew Lynn “The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant… Apple is unlikely to make much of an impact on this market… Apple will sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won’t make a long-term mark on the industry.” ========== January 17, 2007, Microsoft CEO, Steve Ballmer “[Apple’s iPhone] is the most expensive phone in the world and it doesn’t appeal to business customers because it doesn’t have a keyboard which makes it not a very good email machine… So, I, I kinda look at that and I say, well, I like our strategy. I like it a lot.” ========== January 18, 2007, Microsoft Senior Marketing Director, Richard Sprague “I can’t believe the hype being given to iPhone… I just have to wonder who will want one of these things (other than the religious faithful)… So please mark this post and come back in two years to see the results of my prediction: I predict they will not sell anywhere near the 10M Jobs predicts for 2008.” ==========
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Post by hledgard on Mar 27, 2022 16:58:55 GMT -8
Thanks Luckychoices. That was a GREAT post. Pure joy !
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Post by hledgard on Mar 27, 2022 17:26:42 GMT -8
As regards the Apple car. Potentially a game changer in tough industry. Have no idea what Apple is up to. Note that the majority of people are not enamored by an electric car. And the technical challenges are huge. One accident, however insignificant compared to the current number of accidents, will make the headlines.
Don't see how Apple can really do it.
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