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Post by aaplsauce on Apr 5, 2022 22:04:26 GMT -8
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 6, 2022 6:38:08 GMT -8
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 6, 2022 8:09:47 GMT -8
Not arguing with you, but do you have any ideas how the US government can impact international requirements?
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chinacat
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AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 6, 2022 8:27:29 GMT -8
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 6, 2022 10:00:05 GMT -8
In a statement, iPhone assembler Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn on the global market, said its four major product lines experienced double-digit percentage growth in March on a year-on-year basis, and it posted NT$507.40 billion in consolidated sales in the month, up 15 percent from a year earlier.Hon Hai's four major product lines are computers, electronics components, cloud-based Internet related items, and smart consumer electronics devices. The company's March sales also rose by 11.51 percent from a month earlier, though the smart consumer electronics device division reported a month-on-month decline in revenue, Hon Hai said, which it attributed to an absence of new products. focustaiwan.tw/business/202204060008
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 6, 2022 11:07:47 GMT -8
I'm not sure what this means ... the part about "Mom and Dad not paying the bills anymore" ... LOL! (I still pay the cellphone bill for the entire family, including the 20-something year olds. It just makes sense to keep a less expensive family plan rather than a bunch of individual plans. I think I have 7 or 8 lines in my plan right now.) I wouldn't be surprised if a young adult who broke their iPhone might switch to a [much] cheaper Android temporarily while they save up to buy a new replacement iPhone. I know that's what I threaten my kids with if they break their iPhone (I have an assortment of old iPhones and Androids here as well)!
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 6, 2022 11:27:10 GMT -8
Not arguing with you, but do you have any ideas how the US government can impact international requirements? Hmm, nice softball, but since today is my birthday, I will magnanimously spare the board my feelings about how to make the world great again.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 6, 2022 11:42:28 GMT -8
Any comments on the Fed? Seems like the trajectory of markets right now, particularly tech, is all dependent on Fed signaling and decisions.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 6, 2022 17:37:31 GMT -8
Not arguing with you, but do you have any ideas how the US government can impact international requirements? Hmm, nice softball, but since today is my birthday, I will magnanimously spare the board my feelings about how to make the world great again. Happy Birthday JD. Too bad AAPL couldn't have given you a nice gift.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 6, 2022 17:47:35 GMT -8
Any comments on the Fed? Seems like the trajectory of markets right now, particularly tech, is all dependent on Fed signaling and decisions. I don't know ... the more I look and listen, the more it seems like the big Wall Street honchos are playing "rope a dope" with the fed. See, the fed hasn't started selling their treasuries yet, but they have started raising rates. And it seems like the market is raising rates even more ... and VERY rapidly. That means that bond prices go down (wasn't there an article last week about how bonds had the biggest losses ever recorded?) ... just in time for the fed to sell those bonds to .... to ... to those Wall Street honchos! It almost looks like they are trying to get those bonds at nice low prices. Why? Well, maybe they think that all this rapid rise in rates can cause a recession ... and a recession usually leads to lower rates ... and lower rates lead to higher prices for the bonds that they just bought from the fed! I just have to wonder if it'll look roughly like this - market+fed causes rates to go up between now and late this year. Meanwhile bond prices get crushed, and each month the fed is selling $50+B of their bonds, maybe even $100B+ a month by the end of the year. THEN, early/mid next year we see a recession coming, the fed panics (as usual) and starts talking about dropping rates. And if some sort of "event" occurs (overseas default, China real estate default, whatever) at the same time, then the fed starts talking about "providing liquidity" (buying bonds) again ... and then as rates are rapidly coming down, and as bond prices are rising again, they BUY those bonds at the new high prices. Basically fed "sells low" and "buys high" in this scenario. What do y'all think? [EDIT: Turns out that after I posted this, I read that the fed minutes came out and suggested that they will be selling $95B a month off the bat.]
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 6, 2022 19:22:27 GMT -8
I'm not sure what this means ... the part about "Mom and Dad not paying the bills anymore" ... LOL! Perhaps we had different experiences as college graduates on the cusp of becoming self-supporting . For me, economic independence was an important goal. It was the cornerstone of personal control over my life. Fortunately, software was a relatively well-paid gig, even at the entry level. Once I graduated from college and had a job, I took over my college loans from my blue-collar parents. Others may do things differently. So I wonder how many of those 90% continue to buy expensive iPhones once the cash is coming out of their entry-level paychecks.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 6, 2022 20:12:07 GMT -8
Any comments on the Fed? Seems like the trajectory of markets right now, particularly tech, is all dependent on Fed signaling and decisions. I don't know ... the more I look and listen, the more it seems like the big Wall Street honchos are playing "rope a dope" with the fed. See, the fed hasn't started selling their treasuries yet, but they have started raising rates. And it seems like the market is raising rates even more ... and VERY rapidly. That means that bond prices go down (wasn't there an article last week about how bonds had the biggest losses ever recorded?) ... just in time for the fed to sell those bonds to .... to ... to those Wall Street honchos! It almost looks like they are trying to get those bonds at nice low prices. Why? Well, maybe they think that all this rapid rise in rates can cause a recession ... and a recession usually leads to lower rates ... and lower rates lead to higher prices for the bonds that they just bought from the fed! I just have to wonder if it'll look roughly like this - market+fed causes rates to go up between now and late this year. Meanwhile bond prices get crushed, and each month the fed is selling $50+B of their bonds, maybe even $100B+ a month by the end of the year. THEN, early/mid next year we see a recession coming, the fed panics (as usual) and starts talking about dropping rates. And if some sort of "event" occurs (overseas default, China real estate default, whatever) at the same time, then the fed starts talking about "providing liquidity" (buying bonds) again ... and then as rates are rapidly coming down, and as bond prices are rising again, they BUY those bonds at the new high prices. Basically fed "sells low" and "buys high" in this scenario. What do y'all think? Very interesting and perceptive analysis. So what is your read of what all this will do to stocks over the next year?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 6, 2022 21:19:08 GMT -8
Any comments on the Fed? Seems like the trajectory of markets right now, particularly tech, is all dependent on Fed signaling and decisions. The fed is trying to slow inflation down, and their main trick is adjusting interest rates, but it’s not just the changing of them but also the signaling/foreshadowing. One story had rates on a 30 year loan up 1.5% since the start of the year, and adjustables up 1%, even though fed rates are only up .25%. Mortgages aren’t everything, but they are important in slowing down housing prices, which along with energy make up a big portion of inflation, directly or indirectly. Lots of companies borrow, so raising rates raises costs and lowers the incentive to borrow, for inventory, expansion, hiring, buyouts, etc. so it can lower growth, with one analyst today thinking of 5% growth in the aggregate for the rest of the year. But what about Apple? The investor psychology change can be near instant as a wall of worry item. But what are the real direct costs to Apple? How much of their debt is short term or variable, vs what they sold bonds at low rates on? How else does it affect the company? There is the indirect, of slowing the economy can slow consumer and business purchases. That’s important, but hard to accurately guess at. Instead it gets processed as people take a little risk off the table, lowering the P/E. But some of that could be countered In the future by other risks shrinking. If Apple announces good earnings, maybe people will continue seeing the stock as a safe haven, while taking out of other places. That might not make for a run, but could help buffer against drops that companies more affected by rate increases might see. AAPL needs about 15% to hit 200. It’s seeming less likely to happen this year than it seemed a few weeks ago. But volatility and dependence on outside events are up, and it seems to change week by week if not day by day. At this moment I’d give 200 in ‘22 a 20-40% chance. But tomorrow might be different, and I’d enjoy seeing earnings later this month make it more plausible. I also would like to see the fed limit their rate raises to just what is needed rather than overdoing it as they did in the 2001 and 2008 bubbles. The soft landing always is the goal, or hope. But after this very long expansion, and trying to get inflation down quickly, that might not be possible. Otoh, inflation control is the main target, and it might not be as important if economic expansion goes negative (recession), or stocks fall. Short term changes in the market just isn’t as important.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 7, 2022 10:56:12 GMT -8
I'm not sure what this means ... the part about "Mom and Dad not paying the bills anymore" ... LOL! Perhaps we had different experiences as college graduates on the cusp of becoming self-supporting . For me, economic independence was an important goal. It was the cornerstone of personal control over my life. Fortunately, software was a relatively well-paid gig, even at the entry level. Once I graduated from college and had a job, I took over my college loans from my blue-collar parents. Others may do things differently. So I wonder how many of those 90% continue to buy expensive iPhones once the cash is coming out of their entry-level paychecks. I was like that too, but also because of necessity. I *had* to support myself because my parents were in no position to pay my school loans or make my car loan payment. Of course, my comment was a little tongue in cheek, as I only have one kid out of college, and that's just recent, and still lives at home. But the kid is working full-time and saving most fo what they earn. It seems as if "kids" (teens and young adults) in the USA will do whatever they have to do to get an iPhone. Androids are generally held in disdain to some extent in that cohort. But as they grow older, say late 20s or 30s, they are more willing to go the Android route if necessary (due to cost).
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 7, 2022 10:57:15 GMT -8
I don't know ... the more I look and listen, the more it seems like the big Wall Street honchos are playing "rope a dope" with the fed. See, the fed hasn't started selling their treasuries yet, but they have started raising rates. And it seems like the market is raising rates even more ... and VERY rapidly. That means that bond prices go down (wasn't there an article last week about how bonds had the biggest losses ever recorded?) ... just in time for the fed to sell those bonds to .... to ... to those Wall Street honchos! It almost looks like they are trying to get those bonds at nice low prices. Why? Well, maybe they think that all this rapid rise in rates can cause a recession ... and a recession usually leads to lower rates ... and lower rates lead to higher prices for the bonds that they just bought from the fed! I just have to wonder if it'll look roughly like this - market+fed causes rates to go up between now and late this year. Meanwhile bond prices get crushed, and each month the fed is selling $50+B of their bonds, maybe even $100B+ a month by the end of the year. THEN, early/mid next year we see a recession coming, the fed panics (as usual) and starts talking about dropping rates. And if some sort of "event" occurs (overseas default, China real estate default, whatever) at the same time, then the fed starts talking about "providing liquidity" (buying bonds) again ... and then as rates are rapidly coming down, and as bond prices are rising again, they BUY those bonds at the new high prices. Basically fed "sells low" and "buys high" in this scenario. What do y'all think? Very interesting and perceptive analysis. So what is your read of what all this will do to stocks over the next year? Oh that's easy! Stocks over the next year will ... fluctuate.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 7, 2022 11:29:50 GMT -8
But what about Apple? The investor psychology change can be near instant as a wall of worry item. But what are the real direct costs to Apple? How much of their debt is short term or variable, vs what they sold bonds at low rates on? How else does it affect the company? There is the indirect, of slowing the economy can slow consumer and business purchases. That’s important, but hard to accurately guess at. Instead it gets processed as people take a little risk off the table, lowering the P/E. But some of that could be countered In the future by other risks shrinking. If Apple announces good earnings, maybe people will continue seeing the stock as a safe haven, while taking out of other places. That might not make for a run, but could help buffer against drops that companies more affected by rate increases might see. AAPL needs about 15% to hit 200. It’s seeming less likely to happen this year than it seemed a few weeks ago. But volatility and dependence on outside events are up, and it seems to change week by week if not day by day. At this moment I’d give 200 in ‘22 a 20-40% chance. But tomorrow might be different, and I’d enjoy seeing earnings later this month make it more plausible. I also would like to see the fed limit their rate raises to just what is needed rather than overdoing it as they did in the 2001 and 2008 bubbles. The soft landing always is the goal, or hope. But after this very long expansion, and trying to get inflation down quickly, that might not be possible. Otoh, inflation control is the main target, and it might not be as important if economic expansion goes negative (recession), or stocks fall. Short term changes in the market just isn’t as important. We have to keep in mind that Apple issued debt, not because they needed the money, but because it was an advantageous way to structure capital. So, if it becomes less advantageous, or not advantageous, they can easily eliminate the debt. For example, the $5.5B of bonds coming due in 2023. They were issued about 9 years ago at a very advantageous 2.4% rate. If they come due next year, and current AAA corporate rates are much higher (say 4+%), Apple can simply choose to not refinance them, and instead "write a check" for $5.5B at maturity. And those may have already been redeemed at this point, I'm just using them as an example. According to the 10K, Apple has $9.6B coming due in 2022, and $11.4B coming due in 2023, that's only $20B. Even if it all needs to be paid off, it's only a fraction of Apple cash flow over 2 years! I don't think the fed will overdo it this time, and if they do overdo it, it'll be VERY short-lived. That's because the very hint of a recession will scare them. The only thing worse than inflation is inflation without growth ("stagflation").[/quote]
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