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Post by aaplsauce on Apr 7, 2022 22:40:12 GMT -8
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 8, 2022 6:38:53 GMT -8
The fed is trying to slow inflation down, and their main trick is adjusting interest rates, but it’s not just the changing of them but also the signaling/foreshadowing. One story had rates on a 30 year loan up 1.5% since the start of the year, and adjustables up 1%, even though fed rates are only up .25%. Mortgages aren’t everything, but they are important in slowing down housing prices, which along with energy make up a big portion of inflation, directly or indirectly. Lots of companies borrow, so raising rates raises costs and lowers the incentive to borrow, for inventory, expansion, hiring, buyouts, etc. so it can lower growth, with one analyst today thinking of 5% growth in the aggregate for the rest of the year. But what about Apple? The investor psychology change can be near instant as a wall of worry item. But what are the real direct costs to Apple? How much of their debt is short term or variable, vs what they sold bonds at low rates on? How else does it affect the company? There is the indirect, of slowing the economy can slow consumer and business purchases. That’s important, but hard to accurately guess at. Instead it gets processed as people take a little risk off the table, lowering the P/E. But some of that could be countered In the future by other risks shrinking. If Apple announces good earnings, maybe people will continue seeing the stock as a safe haven, while taking out of other places. That might not make for a run, but could help buffer against drops that companies more affected by rate increases might see. AAPL needs about 15% to hit 200. It’s seeming less likely to happen this year than it seemed a few weeks ago. But volatility and dependence on outside events are up, and it seems to change week by week if not day by day. At this moment I’d give 200 in ‘22 a 20-40% chance. But tomorrow might be different, and I’d enjoy seeing earnings later this month make it more plausible. I also would like to see the fed limit their rate raises to just what is needed rather than overdoing it as they did in the 2001 and 2008 bubbles. The soft landing always is the goal, or hope. But after this very long expansion, and trying to get inflation down quickly, that might not be possible. Otoh, inflation control is the main target, and it might not be as important if economic expansion goes negative (recession), or stocks fall. Short term changes in the market just isn’t as important. How do people see rate increases and other fed actions directly and indirectly affecting Apple, AAPL, and the market? Right now the quick change is taking some of the froth/excitement out of the market. But this article says there is plenty of momentum and money for the economy to continue pushing forward. finance.yahoo.com/news/the-most-bullish-story-in-the-stock-market-right-now-morning-brief-090558155.htmlI like to think of the Fed as trying to do some process control, taking the peaks and valleys out of a sine wave, or at least trying to minimize them. But in practice I don't think there is a way to completely "fix" things by taking out all of the edges to make it a straight line, and there's often quite a bit of lag. Due to that lag, there's still decent peaks and valleys even after the fed has started shifting policies. The psychological affect when they are yelling "hey, we're going to change things a lot, and might even do it quickly" does help minimize that lag, and that's really where things are at right now. Pretty much the same as the rumor vs the news on products or earnings for AAPL. How do you see the Fed changes affecting Apple?
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Post by hrace on Apr 8, 2022 7:37:36 GMT -8
Much less thought provoking than 4aapl’s post, but is anyone planning to watch the debut of TV+ Friday night baseball? I will try to tune in just to see what changes Apple is bringing to the broadcast. Something new to check out.
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Post by macster on Apr 8, 2022 8:10:12 GMT -8
Much less thought provoking than 4aapl’s post, but is anyone planning to watch the debut of TV+ Friday night baseball? I will try to tune in just to see what changes Apple is bringing to the broadcast. Something new to check out. I do have 3 month free tv+ because of my SE purchase. but haven’t taken advantage yet. Personally my thinking is…When the Umpires are relieved from their terribly inaccurate balls and strike calls I’ll become interested in baseball again. Professional Tennis now has electronic line calls. MLB can adapt it to home plate and standardize it throughout MLB. Until then I pass.
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 8, 2022 8:21:03 GMT -8
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 8, 2022 9:51:51 GMT -8
Much less thought provoking than 4aapl’s post, but is anyone planning to watch the debut of TV+ Friday night baseball? I will try to tune in just to see what changes Apple is bringing to the broadcast. Something new to check out. I do have 3 month free tv+ because of my SE purchase. but haven’t taken advantage yet. Personally my thinking is…When the Umpires are relieved from their terribly inaccurate balls and strike calls I’ll become interested in baseball again. Professional Tennis now has electronic line calls. MLB can adapt it to home plate and standardize it throughout MLB. Until then I pass. They're (MiLB) doing a trial run this season in the minor leagues of "robo-umps" at the plate. Not all games, but some good percentage of games so they can evaluate the effectiveness of it. It's coming, I don't know when, but robo-umps are coming. www.espn.com/espn/story/_/id/33502473/major-league-baseball-test-robo-umps-pitch-clocks-larger-bases-anti-shift-rules-minors-possible-big-league-use-23
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Post by eastbaybob on Apr 8, 2022 10:08:41 GMT -8
Much less thought provoking than 4aapl’s post, but is anyone planning to watch the debut of TV+ Friday night baseball? I will try to tune in just to see what changes Apple is bringing to the broadcast. Something new to check out. Yes I am very interested. Lets all hope Apple does well with their first game
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Post by duckpins on Apr 8, 2022 10:16:20 GMT -8
Much less thought provoking than 4aapl’s post, but is anyone planning to watch the debut of TV+ Friday night baseball? I will try to tune in just to see what changes Apple is bringing to the broadcast. Something new to check out. I do have 3 month free tv+ because of my SE purchase. but haven’t taken advantage yet. Personally my thinking is…When the Umpires are relieved from their terribly inaccurate balls and strike calls I’ll become interested in baseball again. Professional Tennis now has electronic line calls. MLB can adapt it to home plate and standardize it throughout MLB. Until then I pass. Getting the NFL games would be a winner. Baseball really has a limited demographic appeal. ATV used to be a year free> Now 3 months?
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 8, 2022 12:38:15 GMT -8
Getting the NFL games would be a winner. Baseball really has a limited demographic appeal. ATV used to be a year free> Now 3 months? I guess you don’t live in an MLB area. Here in New England, baseball cuts across all demographics - old/young. male/female, rich/poor. I still remember lying in my hospital bed at 7 years old with mono and having a janitor passing by, then coming in saying “You don’t want to watch this,”. and switching the soap opera a nurse had left on to the Red Sox game. I made my first trip to Fenway with my Dad a couple of months later. The miracle season of 1967 a few years later cemented things for the whole region, right up to this day.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 8, 2022 13:19:49 GMT -8
Not a great day for tech. At least we closed over $170
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 8, 2022 13:32:25 GMT -8
9TO5Mac has a fun animation illustrating the contributions of various products to Apple’s total revenue over the years in 20 years of Apple company growth in one 40-second video. For me, it was a great reminder of the impact of the iPod, the most successful “gadget” before the iPhone took over. This is excellent. Doesn't even show the Apple II. How many times has Apple reinvented itself? To paraphrase, nothing wrong with disruption so long as you are cannibalizing yourself. The iPod is interesting. So responsible for Apple's success, but now a footnote (I wasn't even sure Apple still sold them). The chart is actually by Statista (a good company to follow). Also interesting, Statista Racings Bars: The World's Most Valuable Brands (Apple goes from not in the top-10, to #1 in like 2 years 2010-2012!). See also, Statista Racing Bars: Social Media Advertising (Apple needs a bigger piece of this).
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