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Post by aaplsauce on Apr 19, 2022 21:40:08 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 20, 2022 3:28:24 GMT -8
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chinacat
Moderator
AAPL Long since 2006
Posts: 4,438
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Post by chinacat on Apr 20, 2022 9:14:16 GMT -8
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Post by duckpins on Apr 20, 2022 9:41:24 GMT -8
As inflation hurts, really the price of fuel, the easiest things to cut are the ridiculous subscriptions. Netflix is lucky to be down only 200,000. CNN+ crashed at launch. The mystery is who they thought was not getting enough of Lemon and Anderson cooper? Apple TV surely will feel some of this as well, possibly all the different subscriptions. The key Cook missed was to bundle them all for 99 a year. Most people would not use most of the stuff. So it would be a good deal for Apple and put all their hardware front and center. Multiples are still compressing in the tech area even with sentiment near all time lows. People are looking for things to cut now. I would say the Gig economy is next after the streamers. The Gigs should pay more in taxes as well as they clog roads and pollute. I live in the hills and there are a dozen delivery cars and trucks that drive by every day. Apple subscriptions might decline year over year and this will hurt the stock.
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Post by kpas1 on Apr 20, 2022 10:34:53 GMT -8
Time to speculate on how earnings on April 28 will affect AAPL's share price before and after. As in January, the earnings call is after hours Thursday, so just 1 more trading day for that week's options. We're used to a pattern where the stock runs up before earnings, then goes pfft after, only to gradually rebound when people wake up to how solid the performance really was. But in January if I remember right, the results were so good the stock immediately took off. So which if any of these patterns will hold? Lots of premium in next week's options, with IV at about 38% and an implied move of ~$8 ($160-175?). Interestingly, max-pain goes up from $167.5 this week to $172.5 next week. So there is some bullish thinking out there.
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Post by silkstone on Apr 21, 2022 5:25:07 GMT -8
Time to speculate on how earnings on April 28 will affect AAPL's share price before and after. As in January, the earnings call is after hours Thursday, so just 1 more trading day for that week's options. We're used to a pattern where the stock runs up before earnings, then goes pfft after, only to gradually rebound when people wake up to how solid the performance really was. But in January if I remember right, the results were so good the stock immediately took off. So which if any of these patterns will hold? Lots of premium in next week's options, with IV at about 38% and an implied move of ~$8 ($160-175?). Interestingly, max-pain goes up from $167.5 this week to $172.5 next week. So there is some bullish thinking out there. Well, Netflix took a 50 billion dollar hit after reporting they lost 200,000 subscribers. If you don’t know what earnings numbers will be reported on the 28th, how can you speculate what the reaction will be ? What if Apple reports great numbers but also reports losing some video service subscribers ? But I was an addicted gambler in my youth so I understand the adrenaline rush and suspense associated with betting on a hunch.
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Post by kpas1 on Apr 21, 2022 10:19:45 GMT -8
Time to speculate on how earnings on April 28 will affect AAPL's share price before and after. As in January, the earnings call is after hours Thursday, so just 1 more trading day for that week's options. We're used to a pattern where the stock runs up before earnings, then goes pfft after, only to gradually rebound when people wake up to how solid the performance really was. But in January if I remember right, the results were so good the stock immediately took off. So which if any of these patterns will hold? Lots of premium in next week's options, with IV at about 38% and an implied move of ~$8 ($160-175?). Interestingly, max-pain goes up from $167.5 this week to $172.5 next week. So there is some bullish thinking out there. Well, Netflix took a 50 billion dollar hit after reporting they lost 200,000 subscribers. If you don’t know what earnings numbers will be reported on the 28th, how can you speculate what the reaction will be ? What if Apple reports great numbers but also reports losing some video service subscribers ? But I was an addicted gambler in my youth so I understand the adrenaline rush and suspense associated with betting on a hunch. Sure, I get that. But how the stock moves before earnings is a thing, and how the market reacts to earnings, whether they are good or bad, is also a thing. So still plenty to talk about, IMO. Some people even think they can predict what Apple will report!
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