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Post by aaplsauce on Apr 25, 2022 21:53:24 GMT -8
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4aapl
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Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 26, 2022 7:26:47 GMT -8
So much for that green from yesterday. I'm sure some here are much more familiar with unions than I am. From the standpoint of an employee being part of a union, what is the downside to that employee? I thought in some cases the union fees were forced on everyone, but then pretty much negotiated so that the employees paid more to end up covering them. It just seems, from an outside view that really doesn't know much on this, that from an employee standpoint, forming a union only has upside and no downside. Likewise, from a company side, there doesn't seem to be much upside. Maybe it aids in getting employees to follow rules, or figure out what employees want in order to keep them happier and have less turnover? What are the pros and cons from both sides, in the current day and age?
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Post by firestorm on Apr 26, 2022 8:16:08 GMT -8
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Post by silkstone on Apr 26, 2022 8:45:16 GMT -8
My opinions based on some Union membership time:
Unions force companies to share profit at a greater level than they otherwise would. They communicate employee bitches and complaints to the company for possible improvement to processes and working conditions.
They negotiate contracts to give employees raises, improve employee security and morale.
Downside would be when employees who have seniority cannot be easily fired for poor performance. This sucks for management and for the majority of employees who care about job performance and quality.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 26, 2022 8:45:42 GMT -8
So much for that green from yesterday. I'm sure some here are much more familiar with unions than I am. From the standpoint of an employee being part of a union, what is the downside to that employee? I thought in some cases the union fees were forced on everyone, but then pretty much negotiated so that the employees paid more to end up covering them. It just seems, from an outside view that really doesn't know much on this, that from an employee standpoint, forming a union only has upside and no downside. Likewise, from a company side, there doesn't seem to be much upside. Maybe it aids in getting employees to follow rules, or figure out what employees want in order to keep them happier and have less turnover? What are the pros and cons from both sides, in the current day and age? Well, since you asked...
A main purpose of any well-run business is to become more efficient, i.e., get more work done with less people and work hours over time. The purpose of a union is, inter alia, to do the opposite (get less work done for more money/work hours). It is also a main goal of unions to make it harder to fire people, the single most important tool employers have to select the best employees, get employees to work hard, and to get them to comply with the company's rules and culture. For this reason, Jack Welch famously said, "I wouldn't know how to run a public employee organization." Because if you can't fire people, management is impotent. Imagine telling Steve Jobs - who believed "A people want to work with A people," that he couldn't fire bozos? They had an entire "Bozo period" at Apple, after which Steve had to fire a third of the company! The worst part being is, Apple is an industry leader in compensation. What other retail company gives entry level employees stock options FFS?! Another problem with unions are they are culture killers. If you walk into an Apple store right now and talk to employees, you invariably meet people who seem to love their job and love Apple. I recently enjoyed a chat with some cheerful Apple store employees who were evangelists of the company. But unions are like lawyers, they assume a confrontational, adversarial role (sound like anyone you know?). They seed the idea into employee brains that the employer is exploitative, and the enemy. I've never met a union member who loves their job or their company. They always seem to be permanently disgruntled. No attitude of gratitude. Just counting the days until retirement. I don't know how anyone could look at the USPS and say, "Amazon should be more like them." You walk into a post office, and the employees are surly and move like sleestaks. It's actually comical to watch the "union shuffle" as employees walk as slowly as possible to do their jobs.
Another downside is that unions actually reduce the number of net jobs, because they make employees more expensive. I have seen this first hand in my years of forced union membership in higher education (I have since left the union since the Janus decision). Since full timers who control the union are so expensive (example: My friend is a full time math prof whose annual healthcare compensation is $25,000), at most colleges, 75% of the courses on the campus are taught by non-tenured, zero benefit part time faculty, who work for much less per hour than the greedy full timers, who gobbled up all the compensation and benefits for themselves. So full time jobs are extremely hard to get, since the college would much rather pay part timers that work for less - and who can be fired at will. And the greedy full time faculty never give a rip about the plight of the underpaid part timers, just themselves. Never tell me unions are about fairness or equity. They are about greed and selfishness.
I even sat in union meetings for an entire semester just to see how the sausage was made. I was taken aback at the greed and selfishness the union engendered. One golden example: In a dispute over a contract, the union pointed out that since the college gets paid per student, and since we professors had sole discretion on adding students to our courses, that we should not add any students to punish the college financially. This was during a spring semester when many students were scheduled to graduate and desperately needed to add certain courses. The attitude among most in the union was, "fuck them." I was appalled and added students anyway, at a time when my department chair was the union head, so that was at personal risk to myself. That department chair wrote an Op Ed in the school newspaper blasting the college president. Imagine that! A rank and file employee publicly blasting the CEO with impunity, since she had tenure. Is that any way to run an organization?!
A lot of people will say that the end of unions in America is why the middle class was hallowed out, but I think that is putting the cart before the horse; The rising cost of labor, largely due to unions, encouraged companies to outsource jobs, and more recently, to insource them with cheap labor (especially Big Tech and Big Ag, Apple included). Maybe we should have passed some tax incentives to discourage outsourcing. But the pro-union side loved to do the opposite, tax "greedy" corporations (they are still saying it!). Regardless, IMO the whole free trade movement, while enriching stockholders, has been a disaster in many ways for Americans. For most of my life I was always suspicious of the free traders, who all called me a fake conservative because of my protectionist leanings. I've always thought all the other countries cheat and protect their companies, so why shouldn't we do so? I think that viewpoint has been vindicated. Also, this idea of Nixonian engagement with countries like Russia and China ("if we just trade with them, they will adopt our values!") has turned out to be total bullshit (not to mention, the vindictive, authoritarian EU shaking down our companies). After all these years, I am becoming a protectionist paleocon like Pat Buchanan. We are all wealthier for Apple having access to foreign markets, labor, and supply chains. But did we sell our souls to get there? On the other hand, when I look at old world EU and their total lack of innovation, wealth creation, or economic mobility, I definitely don't want to emulate them!
Would that all Americans - politicians, employees, companies, consumers, investors, and media were all on the same team, to compete with the world.
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Post by bud777 on Apr 26, 2022 9:29:51 GMT -8
I am feeling a little uncomfortable with J.D.'s last post on unions because I agree with everything he said. (What is happening to me?) While unions may have served a valuable purpose in the early twentieth century, I feel like they have followed the course dictated by an inevitable dynamic. To my knowledge, no union official has ever been rewarded for negotiating fewer benefits and lower pay. The problem is structural, not a function of greed. If they want to keep their position, they are forced to play a zero-sum game with management. This is to the detriment of both the corporation and the employees. I feel that the enlightened course would be for management and unions to sit on the same side of the table and work together to improve the health of the business. This of course would require both sides to see that life is a non-zero-sum game.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 26, 2022 9:44:54 GMT -8
Why would a current employee at Apple retail or Amazon choose not to vote for creating a union? Aside from the sole sucking aspect that you mentioned, which one could easily brush off as "that might happen in automotive, but we are different and it would never happen here", I'm just having a hard time seeing why someone wouldn't vote for it. That is assuming they don't already have a negative view of unions and are against them based on personal history or principles.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 26, 2022 10:29:20 GMT -8
So much for that green from yesterday. I'm sure some here are much more familiar with unions than I am. From the standpoint of an employee being part of a union, what is the downside to that employee? I thought in some cases the union fees were forced on everyone, but then pretty much negotiated so that the employees paid more to end up covering them. It just seems, from an outside view that really doesn't know much on this, that from an employee standpoint, forming a union only has upside and no downside. Likewise, from a company side, there doesn't seem to be much upside. Maybe it aids in getting employees to follow rules, or figure out what employees want in order to keep them happier and have less turnover? What are the pros and cons from both sides, in the current day and age? Well, since you asked...
A main purpose of any well-run business is to become more efficient, i.e., get more work done with less people and work hours over time. The purpose of a union is, inter alia, to do the opposite (get less work done for more money/work hours). It is also a main goal of unions to make it harder to fire people, the single most important tool employers have to select the best employees, get employees to work hard, and to get them to comply with the company's rules and culture. For this reason, Jack Welch famously said, "I wouldn't know how to run a public employee organization." Because if you can't fire people, management is impotent. Imagine telling Steve Jobs - who believed "A people want to work with A people," that he couldn't fire bozos? They had an entire "Bozo period" at Apple, after which Steve had to fire a third of the company! The worst part being is, Apple is an industry leader in compensation. What other retail company gives entry level employees stock options FFS?! Another problem with unions are they are culture killers. If you walk into an Apple store right now and talk to employees, you invariably meet people who seem to love their job and love Apple. I recently enjoyed a chat with some cheerful Apple store employees who were evangelists of the company. But unions are like lawyers, they assume a confrontational, adversarial role (sound like anyone you know?). They seed the idea into employee brains that the employer is exploitative, and the enemy. I've never met a union member who loves their job or their company. They always seem to be permanently disgruntled. No attitude of gratitude. Just counting the days until retirement. I don't know how anyone could look at the USPS and say, "Amazon should be more like them." You walk into a post office, and the employees are surly and move like sleestaks. It's actually comical to watch the "union shuffle" as employees walk as slowly as possible to do their jobs.
Another downside is that unions actually reduce the number of net jobs, because they make employees more expensive. I have seen this first hand in my years of forced union membership in higher education (I have since left the union since the Janus decision). Since full timers who control the union are so expensive (example: My friend is a full time math prof whose annual healthcare compensation is $25,000), at most colleges, 75% of the courses on the campus are taught by non-tenured, zero benefit part time faculty, who work for much less per hour than the greedy full timers, who gobbled up all the compensation and benefits for themselves. So full time jobs are extremely hard to get, since the college would much rather pay part timers that work for less - and who can be fired at will. And the greedy full time faculty never give a rip about the plight of the underpaid part timers, just themselves. Never tell me unions are about fairness or equity. They are about greed and selfishness.
I even sat in union meetings for an entire semester just to see how the sausage was made. I was taken aback at the greed and selfishness the union engendered. One golden example: In a dispute over a contract, the union pointed out that since the college gets paid per student, and since we professors had sole discretion on adding students to our courses, that we should not add any students to punish the college financially. This was during a spring semester when many students were scheduled to graduate and desperately needed to add certain courses. The attitude among most in the union was, "fuck them." I was appalled and added students anyway, at a time when my department chair was the union head, so that was at personal risk to myself. That department chair wrote an Op Ed in the school newspaper blasting the college president. Imagine that! A rank and file employee publicly blasting the CEO with impunity, since she had tenure. Is that any way to run an organization?!
A lot of people will say that the end of unions in America is why the middle class was hallowed out, but I think that is putting the cart before the horse; The rising cost of labor, largely due to unions, encouraged companies to outsource jobs, and more recently, to insource them with cheap labor (especially Big Tech and Big Ag, Apple included). Maybe we should have passed some tax incentives to discourage outsourcing. But the pro-union side loved to do the opposite, tax "greedy" corporations (they are still saying it!). Regardless, IMO the whole free trade movement, while enriching stockholders, has been a disaster in many ways for Americans. For most of my life I was always suspicious of the free traders, who all called me a fake conservative because of my protectionist leanings. I've always thought all the other countries cheat and protect their companies, so why shouldn't we do so? I think that viewpoint has been vindicated. Also, this idea of Nixonian engagement with countries like Russia and China ("if we just trade with them, they will adopt our values!") has turned out to be total bullshit (not to mention, the vindictive, authoritarian EU shaking down our companies). After all these years, I am becoming a protectionist paleocon like Pat Buchanan. We are all wealthier for Apple having access to foreign markets, labor, and supply chains. But did we sell our souls to get there? On the other hand, when I look at old world EU and their total lack of innovation, wealth creation, or economic mobility, I definitely don't want to emulate them!
Would that all Americans - politicians, employees, companies, consumers, investors, and media were all on the same team, to compete with the world.
Word Bitch! The unions and FDR created the American Middle Class. FDR's lieutenants took these ideas to New Europe and even better Middle Class lives were created with free education and health care so they could be self sustaining. Oligarchs didn't like this. Westinghouse employed 10,000 people in the Shenango Valley, lost a strike and vowed to close the plant and move out all the jobs. Today the place is a wasteland. In Germany Labor is on the Board of directors. Voices are heard. That is real diversity unlike the fake diversity that the Wokee corporations of today support. Of course there is corruption and problems. Teamsters gave Nixon bags of cash to get Hoffa out of jail. Unions at schools and public organizations are a different beast than private unions. The idea the the MLB players have a strong union is nonsense. When you make 10 million a year to play a child's game that is a partnership. Union members put their lives and livelihoods on the line for livable wages. Apple store employees may be underpaid relative to the rest of the millennials who make 6 figure incomes routinely. Unions decrease the wealth divide like progressive tax. We have seen both decline and the divide has dramatically increased. The tech millennials pay 6000 a month rent like it is nothing. Others live in their parents basement and play video games. Writing the games is lucrative, playing them is for idiots if done to excess. Unions prevented right wing populism. They kept the focus on voting for economics. Unfortunately Truman went down the wrong path and that was the beginning of the end of the FDR prosperity for all.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 26, 2022 10:44:30 GMT -8
We've gone down a bit of a rabbit hole on the union discussion.
I'm agreeing with most. I don't see the reason for the Apple Store employees joining the unions. There may be some grievances that they've had in the past (e.g. time to check the bags at the end of the shift), or things that they may want, but overall it may hurt them. The retail employees get stock option (as mentioned above), and discounts on purchasing Apple equipment. Hell, I'm thinking when it's time to retire, I'll work in an Apple Store just to keep busy.
My first interaction with unions was at one of my first jobs. I was sent in to a client (government department) to consult to them. A computer needed to be moved, so I just picked it up an moved it. The people working were in shock. The normal process was to put a ticket in to a system, give the reason for the move, location to be moved from and to (table next to the current one), then wait days or weeks for the person from the right union to come and move it. I have never been in a union, and would not take a role that was unionized. There were some things that unions have done that were beneficial, (5 day work week, safety standards etc), but these days I see them as a hindrance to progress.
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Post by kpas1 on Apr 26, 2022 11:24:16 GMT -8
On the AAPL price action: Numerous cliches come to mind. Yesterday a "dead cat bounce." Today try to "catch a falling knife." How many times do you "double down" to "BTFD" before "capitulating?"
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Post by duckpins on Apr 26, 2022 11:36:19 GMT -8
Today we are about 100 Dow points from again becoming one of the 20 worst point losses in history. In the covid crash there were 15 of the top 20. Now we have #11 on 4/22. Today could be the second. How many of these will we endure before the market hits bottom. The GOOG and MSFT earnings are very meaningful to all as Apple will continue down if they miss. Waiting at 807 Dow 740 is closing fast. Usually the last half hour is the worst. How on to your hat. Could turn on dime if GOOG is good again.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 26, 2022 11:56:12 GMT -8
I have a list of Wall Street Bets stocks. Usually they hold up. Today is the first day the entire list of about 35 stocks is down. Even Gamestock and Tesla.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 26, 2022 12:00:24 GMT -8
Market feeling pretty crashy, with a big pukey pattern of poo poo… that’s my technical analysis.
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Post by CdnPhoto on Apr 26, 2022 12:17:45 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 26, 2022 12:18:54 GMT -8
MSFT slight beat on earnings expectations, flat so far on the news.
GOOGL slight miss on expectations, down 4% AH
AAPL no news, down 1% AH
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 26, 2022 12:24:38 GMT -8
Good Lord if Apple doesn't beat on Thursday, I might need to work at an Apple Store right now.
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 26, 2022 13:05:34 GMT -8
AAPL back to where it was August 2021.
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Dave
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"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 26, 2022 13:20:15 GMT -8
About the discussion on labor unions, I do have a lifetime of experience as as a union member. I worked in northern Ohio, which is a “closed shop” (required to join). The corruption is frightening. Later I moved to a “right to work” state (not required to join) and had the chance to be on a contract negotiation committee and swore that I would never be talked into that again. I didn’t like seeing the sausage being made. Here’s a good example of what it’s like being a union member. If you go on strike, you may never recover the money from the time you were not employed. If you get a raise, the union increases your dues. A large part of your dues goes to a political party as a kickback for supporting union legislation. The membership has little or no say on how the dues are spent, and you best not complain too much, if you know what’s good for ya. And one more thing, your dues are taken out of your pay check, it’s called check off. This is one debt that you don’t want to be be late paying. Consider it a convenience. Just imagine the excitement a labor union will have at the negotiating table with the most valuable company in the world, with hundreds of billions of dollars in the bank. “So Mr. Tim, you don’t won’ta share a little?
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platon
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"All we can know is that we know nothing. And that's the height of human wisdom.? Tolstoy
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Post by platon on Apr 26, 2022 13:31:48 GMT -8
I have a long history with unions, from a small local union which was most involved with safe working conditions to a large national union which was most interested in taking the company's money by forcing the employee to join the union at the direction of the government. The best thing to happen to Texas was right-to-work which gives workers the right to join or not join a union. Unions played an important role in the early industrial expansion of the US when they existed to benefit the worker. That changed when suddenly they existed to benefit the union bosses and their criminal enterprises. Apple does not need to align itself with these national unions led by criminal thugs. Apple's management team needs to keep the needs of the worker at the forefront of their operation, but they do not need an organization that demands they pay their unskilled workers at the same level of their engineers and scientists. Unions thrive on those type of demands. The workers should keep in mind whether they want to have one boss or two bosses on the job. I know from experience which is best in the current labor environment.
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Post by zebrum on Apr 26, 2022 15:26:02 GMT -8
hopefully a double bottom is spotted by traders tomorrow
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Post by firestorm on Apr 26, 2022 16:05:00 GMT -8
Good Lord if Apple doesn't beat on Thursday, I might need to work at an Apple Store right now. But will you join the union?
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Post by silkstone on Apr 26, 2022 16:17:49 GMT -8
On the AAPL price action: Numerous cliches come to mind. Yesterday a "dead cat bounce." Today try to "catch a falling knife." How many times do you "double down" to "BTFD" before "capitulating?" You need to wait for the economy to hit bottom, then buy the hell out of it.
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 26, 2022 16:47:32 GMT -8
On the AAPL price action: Numerous cliches come to mind. Yesterday a "dead cat bounce." Today try to "catch a falling knife." How many times do you "double down" to "BTFD" before "capitulating?" You need to wait for the economy to hit bottom, then buy the hell out of it. Always a tough metric, the "bottom". But 10% off the bottom is a little easier, while still a huge discount. RSI is just below 35, using closing numbers. AH probably pushes it down another point. This is a time where if you have spare cash or margin, somewhere around here has to be a good buying point. At the same time, we're borrowing a bit already, at these prices up to 23%. As tempting as it is to go big, there's enough scary stuff out there that could potentially happen that you might want to get a little risky, but not go big on risk. Careful out there. Take some risk if you want, but watch out for going too big. If it were just interest rates, I might finally use that HELOC safety net that has been sitting there untapped. But include Russia/Ukraine, and there is just too much potential risk to take on more risk. But that's why things are where they are, since current interest rates and future projections and inflation aren't enough to offset the economy and jobs to this level. Such is life. There are always items on the wall of worry. Is this time different? In the here and now it sure feels like it, just like it always does. But that's a tough question, that only the future will make clear.
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Post by silkstone on Apr 26, 2022 16:51:43 GMT -8
Yes, way more downside risk for the US economy and the world economy than upside potential for Apple stock imo.
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