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Post by aaplsauce on Apr 26, 2022 21:42:48 GMT -8
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Post by archibaldtuttle on Apr 27, 2022 6:36:23 GMT -8
GOOGL now trading at a 22 PE multiple. If AAPL misses, a 22 PE would take it into the low 130s
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 27, 2022 7:13:36 GMT -8
GOOGL now trading at a 22 PE multiple. If AAPL misses, a 22 PE would take it into the low 130s They didn't just miss. Earnings are also down YOY. I didn't see it, but if forward guidance didn't make up for it somehow, it's surprising to see the stock down only 3.4% with both a miss and YOY decline. There is some positiveness. Travel searches are up, even when comparing to 2019. finance.yahoo.com/news/google-summer-travel-105209391.htmlThe primary take from that is for travel related businesses, especially as some people put off a vacation, and some are reprioritizing. But another take is that even with higher inflation and higher interest rates, while also with good employment and a good economy, people are prioritizing spending money instead of saving it up. It's like the weatherman talking about a hurricane potentially coming, but most people aren't stocking up on supplies or leaving town. Instead, they're enjoying the beach, for now. They'll wait until there is a higher probability and things are closer. If there is good carryover to other parts of the economy, that's good for the soft landing goal, or at least for the "bad times aren't here yet" crowd.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 27, 2022 10:52:59 GMT -8
GOOGL now trading at a 22 PE multiple. If AAPL misses, a 22 PE would take it into the low 130s Adobe is at 39+, IBM 26, etc. GOOG is a buy here. Huge stock buy back. Total negativity in the stock market and world now. Youtube is challenging netflix slowly. If it goes lower it is a better buy. Looking out a few years what would be better Adobe or Google? " Apple counters claims that privacy features were meant to boost its ad business" if there is anything ad buyers support it is privacy? Some ridiculous concepts float around the stock market. Lets hope earnings are solid. My calls are now June 2024. I closed or covered all prior dates.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 27, 2022 11:25:32 GMT -8
Netflix has a PE of below 19 and falling. Market cap is 85 billion. Twit goes for about half this? This is Apple's opportunity to buy same as it should have done years ago. Netflix has way more value than Twit. Of course problem is that everyone wants to be a streaming service. CNN+ now there is something I could not live without. If the stock keeps falling and Apple can buy it for stock it is worthy of consideration.
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Post by kpas1 on Apr 27, 2022 12:28:49 GMT -8
Funny how Meta/FB earnings beat helps AAPL after hours. Keep FB in perspective, as they are up ONLY 13% after losing 1/2 their value over the last 6-7 months. AAPL not likely to jump as much on an earnings beat. Implied move says ~$8.50 by Friday, which would be 5%, up or down.
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Post by artman1033 on Apr 27, 2022 13:35:47 GMT -8
DIVIDENDS
PERHAPS WE are looking for a 3 cents per share increase in dividends.
we shall see.
WHAT SAY YOU?
In fiscal 2021, Apple distributed 85 cents of dividends per share, while producing $5.61 of earnings per share for a payout ratio of 15%. Investors should see at least 88 cents of dividends per share this year. According to Yahoo Finance, analysts forecast the company will earn $6.17 per share, resulting in a projected payout ratio of 14% for fiscal year 2022. Since 2012, Apple has had an average payout ratio of 24%. Both last year and this year’s projected payout ratio are materially below the already very low long-term average. www.gurufocus.com/news/1693962/apple-is-likely-to-be-a-future-dividend-aristocrat
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 27, 2022 15:42:36 GMT -8
DIVIDENDS
PERHAPS WE are looking for a 3 cents per share increase in dividends.
we shall see.
WHAT SAY YOU?
In fiscal 2021, Apple distributed 85 cents of dividends per share, while producing $5.61 of earnings per share for a payout ratio of 15%. Investors should see at least 88 cents of dividends per share this year. According to Yahoo Finance, analysts forecast the company will earn $6.17 per share, resulting in a projected payout ratio of 14% for fiscal year 2022. Since 2012, Apple has had an average payout ratio of 24%. Both last year and this year’s projected payout ratio are materially below the already very low long-term average. www.gurufocus.com/news/1693962/apple-is-likely-to-be-a-future-dividend-aristocratCould be 3 cents (~13%), but MUCH more likely to be 2 cents increase (~9%).
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 27, 2022 16:40:29 GMT -8
DIVIDENDS
PERHAPS WE are looking for a 3 cents per share increase in dividends.
we shall see.
WHAT SAY YOU?
In fiscal 2021, Apple distributed 85 cents of dividends per share, while producing $5.61 of earnings per share for a payout ratio of 15%. Investors should see at least 88 cents of dividends per share this year. According to Yahoo Finance, analysts forecast the company will earn $6.17 per share, resulting in a projected payout ratio of 14% for fiscal year 2022. Since 2012, Apple has had an average payout ratio of 24%. Both last year and this year’s projected payout ratio are materially below the already very low long-term average. www.gurufocus.com/news/1693962/apple-is-likely-to-be-a-future-dividend-aristocratIn order for Apple to be a "Dividend Aristocrat," it will need to raise its dividend above the point where it is now, 27th out of the 27 Dow 30 dividend payers. More like Dividend Scrooge.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 27, 2022 16:44:55 GMT -8
Netflix has a PE of below 19 and falling. Market cap is 85 billion. Twit goes for about half this? This is Apple's opportunity to buy same as it should have done years ago. Netflix has way more value than Twit. Of course problem is that everyone wants to be a streaming service. CNN+ now there is something I could not live without. If the stock keeps falling and Apple can buy it for stock it is worthy of consideration. This is a satirical post, right?
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4aapl
Moderator
Posts: 3,867
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 27, 2022 16:58:26 GMT -8
Netflix has a PE of below 19 and falling. Market cap is 85 billion. Twit goes for about half this? This is Apple's opportunity to buy same as it should have done years ago. Netflix has way more value than Twit. Of course problem is that everyone wants to be a streaming service. CNN+ now there is something I could not live without. If the stock keeps falling and Apple can buy it for stock it is worthy of consideration. This is a satirical post, right? Netflix content and ongoing subscribers have to be worth something. The problem is with the external content deals. They shouldn't have much advantage over other streaming platforms now. So it really comes down to what the content they own is worth, and what it's worth to have their subscribers. Some come and go, but they much have a huge base that is sticky. I don't see Apple being interested here unless choosing that they really want to go big on streaming and content. But there is some price out there that would make sense. It's just a matter of what level that is.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 27, 2022 17:18:08 GMT -8
Please not this Netflix BS again. Apple has worked for a generation to build the best brand on earth. Netflix is a mediocre brand with shit margins. Steve would roll over in his grave. He'd call it shit, run by bozos, and he'd be right. Good grief!
Hey Walmart has a lot of customers, let's buy it and put an Apple logo on it!
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Post by hledgard on Apr 27, 2022 17:57:10 GMT -8
I think JD has a great point !
Cadillac, Lincoln, BMW, Mercedes, etc. The image is very important.
When Apple bought Beats, it kind of buried the purchase. The headphones were of medium quality. The key here for Apple was not at all the headphones. It was the rights to the music. It gave Apple a nice purchase to jumpstart iTunes.
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JDSoCal
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Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 27, 2022 19:13:17 GMT -8
Netflix is shit, and $85 billion shit. Name one movie or series produced by them that approaches anything of the quality of Pixar's stuff. Apple is already winning Oscars, and we want B and C level crap branded by Apple just to get users? See: No wonder users are dumping Netflix – look at this new game show ( Bullshit with Howie Mandel). Can you imagine Steve watching a Howie Mandel game show and then pitching Netflix to him? Good thing he's already dead or it would kill him again. But let's put that aside for a second. Ask yourselves, of the supposed 200 million Netflix users (and dropping ), Netflix estimates there are around 100 million households globally sharing their user accounts. So the numbers are very questionable once they crack down on that 100M and people start canceling. I'm guessing 20% of Netflix users say screw it and bail. Not to mention all the others who think Disney+ and all the other streaming options are a better value. There's a reason Netflix is hemorrhaging users, people: The studios finally got their shit together and started their own streaming services with their own content. But ask yourselves this: Of the legit Netflix paying users, how many of them are already within the Apple walled garden? Half? So what do you get when you buy those users? They are already iPhone/iPad/Mac users but chose Netflix over Apple TV? How many already sub to both services? And what about the other half? Who in 2022 doesn't have an iPhone and why? Poor people? Android users? Does Apple allow Netflix on Android and Windows? If it doesn't, how do those non-Apple users see Netflix? Do those poor-ass Android users run out and buy a $1000 iPad just to watch Netflix? Do they buy an Apple TV? No. So how is that an insanely great experience, Apple's Netflix on Android?! Apple's Netflix on Windows Edge! Sounds insanely mediocre to me. Funny, I just re-read (listened to, actually) Becoming Steve Jobs, and Steve was lambasting Disney (while on their board) for wanting to cheap out and brand an existing cruise line as Disney. He laughed at them and asked why would they trust some bozo cruise line with their amazing brand? The board relented and spent the billions on their own mouse boats. Seems like buying the Titanic right after it hit the iceberg because you want its passengers. Titanic Cruise Lines by Apple™.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 27, 2022 19:17:04 GMT -8
Please not this Netflix BS again. Apple has worked for a generation to build the best brand on earth. Netflix is a mediocre brand with shit margins. Steve would roll over in his grave. He'd call it shit, run by bozos, and he'd be right. Good grief! Hey Walmart has a lot of customers, let's buy it and put an Apple logo on it! Duckpins might have been saying it was worth something close to the market cap, especially if that dropped another 20-50%.. I don't see Apple buying Netflix. But there is some point that it is worth it, for their own content, and the subscribers. $10? $15? $100M? $2B? More? I don't know, and don't really care. I don't think Apple should, at most prices. But there is a price there somewhere where it would be worth it, especially since Apple has already decided to make that business more than a hobby.
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4aapl
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Post by 4aapl on Apr 27, 2022 19:23:45 GMT -8
Name one movie or series produced by them that approaches anything of the quality of Pixar's stuff. Have you watched a "Pixar" movie lately? We've been a little disappointed by them. They're just not the same. Maybe we are just getting old, thinking of the good old days. They're not terrible. But it's just not what Pixar had with the first 5 or so. But this last one, whatever it was. I think I might have even imagined you getting bent out of shape over it, that it's quality just wasn't there, and they were grasping at too many things. Ahhh, the Panda one. It just tried to be too much.
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Post by Lstream on Apr 27, 2022 19:23:50 GMT -8
Please not this Netflix BS again. Apple has worked for a generation to build the best brand on earth. Netflix is a mediocre brand with shit margins. Steve would roll over in his grave. He'd call it shit, run by bozos, and he'd be right. Good grief! Hey Walmart has a lot of customers, let's buy it and put an Apple logo on it! I also want nothing to do with Netflix. One of the core principles of Apple’s business model, is that that customers get locked into (or at least motivated to stay within) Apple’s overall ecosystem. How does this play out if Apple buys Netflix? Do they turn around and try to make Netflix exclusive to Apple? I don’t think so. So there is no path to strengthening the Apple ecosystem. So what’s the point? To acquire a business that is bleeding subscribers, has no real intellectual property of its own, and is facing serious competition from the likes of Disney? Why?
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Dave
Member
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." Yogi Berra
Posts: 4,335
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Post by Dave on Apr 28, 2022 2:21:38 GMT -8
But let's put that aside for a second. Ask yourselves, of the supposed 200 million Netflix users (and dropping ), Netflix estimates there are around 100 million households globally sharing their user accounts. So the numbers are very questionable once they crack down on that 100M and people start canceling. I'm guessing 20% of Netflix users say screw it and bail. Not to mention all the others who think Disney+ and all the other streaming options are a better value. There's a reason Netflix is hemorrhaging users, people: The studios finally got their shit together and started their own streaming services with their own content. Seems like buying the Titanic right after it hit the iceberg because you want its passengers. Titanic Cruise Lines by Apple™. Talk about being inept in running a business, Netflix is losing its customers and their answer is to raise their monthly subscription prices? When has that idea ever worked? What may have been a better idea is to block out the parasite non-paying users and cut the subscription rate in half for those that do pay. I agree with you 4aapl, I think that Disney has destroyed Pixar, a once amazing studio.
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Post by macster on Apr 28, 2022 6:01:52 GMT -8
Any thoughts about Paramount Global (PARA)? Would it be an ideal fit for Apple? Just thinking out loud, they own a wealth of media content and lots of quality hit shows over there.
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JDSoCal
Member
Aspiring oligarch
Posts: 4,241
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Post by JDSoCal on Apr 28, 2022 6:49:21 GMT -8
Name one movie or series produced by them that approaches anything of the quality of Pixar's stuff. Have you watched a "Pixar" movie lately? We've been a little disappointed by them. They're just not the same. Maybe we are just getting old, thinking of the good old days. They're not terrible. But it's just not what Pixar had with the first 5 or so. But this last one, whatever it was. I think I might have even imagined you getting bent out of shape over it, that it's quality just wasn't there, and they were grasping at too many things. Ahhh, the Panda one. It just tried to be too much. I knew I should have qualified that statement by specifying Pixar's classic pre-Disney stuff. I'm sure Steve would be sad at what Pixar and Disney have become. But I think that reinforces my point: It takes a generation to build a top brand, but 10 minutes to ruin it.
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Post by duckpins on Apr 28, 2022 10:57:11 GMT -8
So you think Twitter is worth half of what Netflix is worth?
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 28, 2022 18:45:33 GMT -8
DIVIDENDS
PERHAPS WE are looking for a 3 cents per share increase in dividends.
we shall see.
WHAT SAY YOU?
In fiscal 2021, Apple distributed 85 cents of dividends per share, while producing $5.61 of earnings per share for a payout ratio of 15%. Investors should see at least 88 cents of dividends per share this year. According to Yahoo Finance, analysts forecast the company will earn $6.17 per share, resulting in a projected payout ratio of 14% for fiscal year 2022. Since 2012, Apple has had an average payout ratio of 24%. Both last year and this year’s projected payout ratio are materially below the already very low long-term average. www.gurufocus.com/news/1693962/apple-is-likely-to-be-a-future-dividend-aristocratIn order for Apple to be a "Dividend Aristocrat," it will need to raise its dividend above the point where it is now, 27th out of the 27 Dow 30 dividend payers. More like Dividend Scrooge. In order for Apple to become a dividend aristocrat, they need to increase the dividend at least once each year for 25 years. That mean that Apple can become a dividend aristocrat in 2038 or so.
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mark
fire starter
Posts: 1,631
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Post by mark on Apr 28, 2022 18:54:32 GMT -8
So you think Twitter is worth half of what Netflix is worth? The "market" thinks that. I don't. Therefore I don't own either of them.
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